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Bitcoin demand in Argentina reaches highest point in nearly two years
Argentines' efforts to preserve their savings amid the ongoing decline of their national currency, the Argentine peso (ARS), has resulted in the nation recently hitting its highest demand for Bitcoin in 20 months, according to a recent report.
On March 20, Bloomberg reported data sourced from cryptocurrency exchange Lemon Cash revealing nearly 35,000 customers in Argentina purchased Bitcoin in the week ending March 10, which is double the weekly average compared to 2023.
A major factor for the increase in demand is the ongoing decline of the nation’s currency.
Over the past twelve months, the ARS value against the US dollar has plummeted fourfold, dropping from 0.0049 USD per ARS in March 2023 to 0.0012 USD at the time of publication.
However, it was noted that Lemon wasn't the only platform seeing a surge in demand. Other major exchanges in Argentina, such as Ripio and Belo, reported similar trends.
According to the CEO of the digital wallet Belo, Manuel Beaudroi, stablecoin purchases in Argentina declined from 70% to 60% as Bitcoin's recent price surge attracted more interest.
“The user decides to buy Bitcoin when they see the news that the currency is going up, while stablecoin is more pragmatic and many times used for transactional purposes, as a vehicle to make payments abroad.”
He also claimed that Belo has seen volume in Bitcoin and Ether increase “tenfold so far in 2024 compared to the same period last year.”
However, a recent report suggests that interest in stablecoins might still exist, as Argentines are possibly choosing not to use the well-known exchanges within the country for purchasing them.
On Feb. 12 reported that Argentines are using black market exchanges, known locally as “crypto caves,” to buy USD stablecoins in an effort to escape strict currency controls and the rising inflation of the ARS.
Meanwhile, the use of digital currency for specific transactions is slowly gaining traction within the country.
In December 2023, Diana Mondino, the minister of foreign affairs, international trade and worship, claimed that a decree aimed at economic reform and deregulation would allow the use of Bitcoin and other cryptos in the country under certain conditions.
Following the ruling, a local landlord and a tenant in Rosario, the third most populated city in Argentina, sealed a rental agreement where the latter would pay monthly rent in Bitcoin.
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Solana Takes Crown as Top Blockchain Ecosystem of the Year: CoinGecko
Solana (SOL) has seized the spotlight as the leading blockchain of the year, commanding nearly half of global crypto investor attention in chain-specific narratives, according to CoinGecko.
This dominance is fueled by SOL’s resurgence to 2021 highs, buoyed by the strong performance of key project tokens such as Pyth and meme coins like Dogwifhat (WIF).
WIF, introduced during a surge in enthusiasm for meme coins on Solana, rode the wave of interest sparked by successes like BONK. This strategic timing, combined with bullish market sentiments, propelled WIF to recent popularity.
CoinGecko’s statistics published Wednesday further showed that Ethereum trailed behind Solana with a global traffic share of 12.73%, while BNB Chain followed at 5.38%.
Institutional Investors Flock to Second-Largest Altcoin
According to CoinShares, Solana ranks as the second-largest altcoin by assets held in funds, trailing only behind Ethereum. This indicates substantial demand from institutional investors and whales.
As the market continues to expand, this trend is expected to strengthen, especially with the anticipated Bitcoin halving and potential rate cuts, which could fuel a prolonged bull market.
Moreover, Solana has experienced significant growth in recent months. It has notably become a favored platform for NFTs and meme coins.
Solana Developer Ecosystem Thrives
CoinDCX co-founder Neeraj Khandelwal said the Solana developer ecosystem has seen significant progress in various aspects throughout 2023.
This includes advancements in tooling, improved developer experience, enhanced content quality, and a wider range of available programming languages. The ecosystem now has over 2500 monthly active developers contributing to open-source repositories.
“Secondly, investor activity has been notably increasing in anticipation of a bull run. Solana has experienced significant growth, with decentralized exchanges (DEXs) witnessing remarkable increases in trading volume,” Khandelwal said.
DefiLlama reports significant spikes in trading volumewithin Solana’s DeFi sector, seen particularly between March 3 and March 6.
“Moreover, investors have been locking substantial amounts of SOL into staking contracts, surpassing a total value of $42b,” he said.
Solana Expected to Reach $250 This Year
Solana traded at around $208 at the start of the week, marking its first rise above $200 in two years. Notably, the coin has surged by 75% since the start of the year and has jumped over 700% in the past 12 months.
Considering this momentum and Solana’s strong fundamentals, experts anticipate its price to soar to $250 by the summer.
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GBTC Bleeds Another $443 Million as Bitcoin Price Drops Below $61,000
Bitcoin experienced a significant price collapse amid continued outflows from Grayscale’s converted GBTC spot Bitcoin ETF.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, the leading cryptocurrency dropped to as low as $60,800 on Tuesday, a 17% decline from its all-time high.
The decline in Bitcoin price came after a significant outflow of $643 million from the $25 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) on Monday, marking its highest outflow since it transformed into an ETF on January 11.
On Tuesday, these products saw another $326.2 million in net outflows.
Grayscale’s GBTC, in particular, experienced an outflow of $443 million.
In contrast, ETF products from BlackRock and Fidelity recorded modest inflows of $75.2 million and $39.6 million, respectively.
Over $650 Million Liquidated as Bitcoin Remains Volatile
According to data by CoinGlass, long and short traders suffered more than $650 million in losses across major centralized exchanges over the past 24 hours.
More specifically, 189,935 traders have been liquidated, with the total long liquidations coming in at $491 million and short liquidations coming in at around $165 million.
Crypto exchange OKX took the lion’s share of these liquidations at over $271 million, followed by Binance at $229 million and Bybit at around $104 million.
Bitcoin-tracked futures experienced $229 million in both short and long liquidations over the past day while Ethererum-linked futures saw over $157 million in liquidations.
Previously, spot Bitcoin ETFs had been setting records, driving Bitcoin’s price to new all-time highs.
However, the recent outflows suggest a shift in investor sentiment and a cautious approach.
One potential factor influencing investor behavior is the impending decision by the Federal Reserve, scheduled to be unveiled on Wednesday.
While the consensus predicts no change in the benchmark interest rate at this time, concerns linger regarding future rate cuts, especially if stubborn inflation persists.
Such a scenario may not favor Bitcoin bulls, leading investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Grayscale to Drop Fees Overtime
Grayscale plans to gradually reduce fees on its flagship product as outflows soar to $12 billion.
According to Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein, the cryptocurrency fund manager anticipates fee reductions for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF in the coming months as the crypto ETF market matures.
Sonnenshein confirmed in an interview with CNBC that as the market evolves, fees for GBTC will decrease.
Grayscale had previously defended its higher-than-average charges, explaining that fees tend to be higher for new products in their initial stages.
Sonnenshein expects a similar trend for GBTC, with fees decreasing as the fund grows and the market matures.
Since its conversion into an ETF in early January, GBTC has experienced outflows exceeding $12 billion.
Sonnenshein acknowledged that outflows were expected as investors sought to capitalize on profits, arbitragers exited the fund, and individuals unwound positions tied to bankruptcies and forced liquidations.
Industry experts suggest that the insolvency of cryptocurrency giant FTX has played a significant role in the GBTC sell-off.
FTX, a major holder of GBTC, filed for bankruptcy in November 2022, and the FTX bankruptcy estate reportedly sold off the majority of its shares in Grayscale’s bitcoin ETF.
“We’re kind of at the end of that first inning now, where the pent-up demand for buying has hopefully been satisfied, the pent up demand for selling has also hopefully been satisfied,” Sonnenshein added.
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Why is the crypto market down today?
The cryptocurrency market is down today, with the total market capitalization falling by 7.68% to $2.27 trillion on March 19.
Bitcoin, the leading crypto by market capitalization, is leading the losses by dropping approximately 7% to around $62,650 on the day. Ethereum's native token, Ether, the second-largest crypto by market cap, was down by around 8% to $3,200 in the same period.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs post biggest daily outflow
Today's decline in the cryptocurrency market capitalization coincides with the largest single-day outflow ever recorded from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Grayscale Bitcoin ETF experienced outflows worth $642.5 million on March 18 — its biggest. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF saw its lowest inflow day on record at $5.9 million, as per Farside Investors data. That resulted in a net outflow of $154.3 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The slowdown in capital inflows toward Bitcoin ETFs occurs ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 20.
As covered, Bitcoin's and, in turn, the crypto market’s 2024 bull run potential hinges on the Fed shifting from tight to loose monetary policy, likely if inflation dips below 3% or economic downturn signs emerge. Hence, the crypto market rally may falter if high-interest rates persist.
Overbought correction
Today's crypto market's decline is part of a broader correction move that began on March 14 when it established a local peak at around $2.72 trillion.
First, bearish divergence signals emerged ahead of the correction, observed through the market’s increasing capitalization contrasted with a decreasing daily Relative Strength Index (RSI). A bearish divergence suggests that the price growth is losing its underlying strength.
Second, the market's daily RSI reached excessively high levels before the correction, indicating overvaluation and leading to reduced trader demand due to perceived excessive prices.
Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss’s (NUPL) sharp rise alongside Bitcoin’s rapid price increase signals a prime opportunity for profit-taking.
Historical data shows that NUPL values above 0.6 seldom sustain before leading to significant price adjustments. Thus, a noticeable correction is visible in March, with a broader downside move possibly having already begun. The levels to watch for are covered here.
Long liquidations boost crypto market sell-off
The sharp drop in major cryptocurrencies’ prices has sparked a flurry of liquidations in the derivatives market, catching bullish traders by surprise and leading to a swift round of long position liquidations.
In the past day, the cryptocurrency market has seen over $182 million in positions liquidated, with long positions accounting for $140 million of the total.
Such liquidations of long derivative positions can lead to downward pressure on asset prices, especially when there's a lack of adequate buying momentum from trading volumes.
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Binance offers $5M reward for insider trading tip-offs
Crypto exchange Binance has announced that it will offer a $100,000 to $5 million reward for those who provide them with reports on potential insider trading or corruption within the exchange.
On March 16, Binance announced that it would list the Solana-based memecoin Book of Meme (BOME) on the exchange. The token was paired with Bitcoin, Tether, First Digital USD and the Turkish lira. In addition, Binance Futures said that it will also list a USDS-M BOME perpetual contract with up to 50x leverage.
Ahead of the Binance listing, a crypto whale bought314 million BOME tokens for $2.3 million on the Raydium decentralized exchange (DEX) at an average price of $0.0074. After the listing, the value of the tokens pumped to a high of $0.026, making the tokens worth around $8 million.
After the listing, the trade was flagged, sparkingcommunity discussions — with some alleging that this was an insider trade. On Reddit, a community member asked if they thought it was a lucky trade or an insider tip, while another floated the idea that the trader could be an insider from Binance.
In a statement on X , Binance said it had launchedan investigation into the insider trading allegations related to the listing of BOME within the exchange. Binance said that, during its preliminary investigation, the person at the center of the allegations had “no connection with Binance.”
Within the announcement, Binance also urged the community to continue to report any potential insider trading or other misconduct related to the exchange.
The trading platform said it would provide a reward of $100,000 up to $5 million to those who send them relevant reports and promised to keep the sender’s identity a secret.
The exchange said that they would thoroughly investigate and make their findings public. Binance also said it wants to maintain a transparent trading environment and prevent any behavior that could affect market fairness.
While some had astronomical gains during the Solana memecoin frenzy, not everyone got lucky. On March 15, a trader who bought BOME very early fumbled a potential millions in gains after selling their tokens a day before the token’s price skyrocketed.
The trader sold 170 million tokens for $131 thousand before the token pumped further. At current market prices, the tokens would have been worth $2.3 million.
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Bitcoin to enter pre-halving ’danger zone,’ but crypto CEOs remain bullish
Bitcoin could be just days away from entering a pre-halving “danger zone” — a time when its price has historically dropped in the lead-up to its halving, according to an analyst.
“In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the ‘Danger Zone’ [...] where historical pre-halving retraces have begun,” crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared in a March 17 X post.
In the past, Bitcoin’s price has dipped in the 14 to 28 days leading up to its halving, Rekt Capital explained. During the 2016 halving, Bitcoin fell 40% during that time, and in 2020, it fell 20%.
In January, Rekt Capital predicted a “pre-halving rally” would occur roughly 60 days before the halving, followed by a “pre-halving retrace” around one to three weeks before the halving.
The prediction turned out to be right, as Bitcoin started to surge in mid-February, and further surprised analysts in March when it beat its previous cycle’s all-time high of $68,990 — marking the first time Bitcoin has ever done so before a halving event.
The next halving is forecast in just under 33 days, on April 20, according to CoinMarketCap. However, the price of Bitcoin has already fallen 8.5% from its March 14 all-time high of $73,835 to its current price of $67,537, per Cointelegraph Markets Pro.
Crypto.com and Binance bosses bullish on Bitcoin
Binance CEO Richard Teng told a crowd at an event in Bangkok on March 17 that he expects Bitcoin will continue to break records and climb past $80,000 by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported.
Teng claimed Bitcoin is “just getting started” and pointed to institutional investors’ large allocations to the cryptocurrency through the new United States exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — which have $57 billion under management, according to Dune Analytics data.
The Binance boss said he predicts Bitcoin will surpass $80,000 “with supply reducing and demand continuing to come through,” but it won’t be a “straight line” and price fluctuations will happen along the way.
Crypto.com co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek toldCNBC on March 15 that Bitcoin’s recent price drop was a “healthy move, removing some of the leverage that built up.”
He added his exchange is seeing Bitcoin is on an upswing it last saw in late 2020 and early 2021, when it rallied from under $20,000 to over $60,000 in just over three months and said the current volatility is “actually pretty low [compared] to what we’ve seen in previous cycles.”
Marszalek expected to see a “steady ramp-up” in Bitcoin’s price, and it would see “less sudden moves” as it’s an asset “you want to hold for decades, not for days or weeks.”
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Unmasking ‘Mr. 100’: The Enigma Behind Bitcoin’s 14th-Largest Holder
A Bitcoin (BTC) whale known as “Mr. 100” has captured the attention of the crypto community in recent days.
The enigmatic individual has amassed a staggering 52,996 Bitcoin, worth over $3.5 billion, making them the 14th-largest holder of the digital currency.
On March 15, the whale purchased at least 1,000 Bitcoin, which accounted for 52% of the total 1,907 BTC bought by the top 10 Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), sparking speculation about the true identity of Mr. 100.
Mr. 100 Consistently Receives Bitcoin
Interestingly, the wallet associated with Mr. 100 has been consistently receiving Bitcoin since November 2022, around the time of the FTX exchange collapse.
What’s more, the wallet has been adding approximately 100 BTC on a daily basis since February 14.
Larger Bitcoin transfers from a secondary wallet address have also been observed, with this secondary address accumulating tranches of 100 BTC since 2019.
This suggests that Mr. 100 has been accumulating Bitcoin for quite some time.
While the exact identity of Mr. 100 remains unknown, several theories have emerged.
Some speculate that the whale could be a Hong Kong financial institution pre-seeding for ETFs, the Qatar Investment Authority, other Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, a cold wallet associated with the South Korean Upbit exchange, or even an unidentified address belonging to a tech billionaire.
What sets Mr. 100 apart is their relentless accumulation of Bitcoin, regardless of its price fluctuations.
Notably, on March 12, when Bitcoin was trading above the $72,000 mark, Mr. 100 added a staggering 400 BTC to their holdings.
This unwavering accumulation spree has propelled them to become the 14th-largest BTC holder, according to data from Bitinfocharts.
Does Mr. 100 Wallet Belong to Upbit Exchange?
Interestingly, blockchain intelligence firm Arkham Intelligence has tagged the Mr. 100 wallet as a cold wallet belonging to the Upbit cryptocurrency exchange.
The firm’s analysis suggests that the wallet is associated with a VASP-type service, and the incoming transactions are traced back to Upbit.
Crystal Intelligence, another analytics team, confirms that the wallet’s outflows have been directed to an Upbit hot wallet.
Most of these transactions involve significant amounts, with some transfers reaching as high as 3,000 BTC.
This evidence has led to the hypothesis that Mr. 100 could indeed be linked to Upbit.
The movement of 100 BTC at regular intervals may be Upbit’s unique method of managing their cold and hot wallet assets, as suggested by pseudonymous on-chain analyst Defioasis.
Furthermore, it has been noted that a South Korean entity has been accumulating large amounts of Bitcoin, adding weight to the theory that Mr. 100’s activities are connected to Upbit.
It is worth noting that the US government is the largest holder of Bitcoin (BTC), acquiring approximately 200,000 coins (worth around $5 billion) through seizures related to criminal activities.
The digital assets were seized from cybercriminals and darknet markets and are securely stored offline in encrypted hardware wallets controlled by various federal agencies, including the Justice Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
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Prosecutors want $11B judgment, 40-50 years in prison for Sam Bankman-Fried
Prosecutors are asking for a sentence of 40-50 years for former CEO of bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried. He faces up to 110 years behind bars under the law.
The 116-page Government’s Sentencing Memorandum, submitted to Judge Lewis Kaplan on March 15, recounts Bankman-Fried’s activities in detail, focusing on five points: Bankman-Fried’s scheme to make illegal political contributions, his attempt to bribe Chinese government officials, his banking misconduct, his attempts to deflect blame and various obstructions of justice.
Bankman-Fried was not charged with illegal political contributions because the government of The Bahamas did not extradite him on that charge. Nor was he charged with bribing Chinese officials. The memorandum also stated:
“The defendant has failed to take genuine responsibility for his role in the collapse of FTX and the loss of customer funds.”
Bankman-Fried’s sentence should be subject to several enhancements due to the severity of his crimes, the document continued. It repeatedly compared Bankman-Fried to Bernie Madoff, the New York financier who ran the largest known Ponzi scheme in history, as well as other financial criminals. It also included four pages of accounts by victims of Bankman-Fried’s fraud of the turmoil caused by the losses the collapse of FTX caused them.
On Nov. 2, Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven charges: two counts of wire fraud, two counts of wire fraud conspiracy, one count of securities fraud, one count of commodities fraud conspiracy and one count of money laundering conspiracy. His legal counsel asked the court for a maximum sentence of six and a half years. He had pleaded not guilty to all the charges.
A sentence of 40-50 years “will permit the defendant to return to liberty after society can be assured that he will not have the opportunity to turn back to fraud and deceit” but still “reflect the seriousness of the defendant’s crimes,” the prosecutors said. They also ask for an $11 billion judgment against him.
Judge Kaplan of the District Court of Southern New York is not required to adhere to the government’s recommendations in the memorandum. Sentencing is set for March 28.
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Peter Schiff once called Bitcoin a ‘pure ponzi’ now wishes he bought some
Gold proponent Peter Schiff, a known Bitcoin critic, now says he wished he had bought Bitcoin (BTC) in 2010 when a work colleague first introduced the cryptocurrency to him.
Speaking in a March 13 interview on Impact Theory with Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal, Schiff hinted he missed the early boat on Bitcoin.
“Do I wish I had made the decision to have thrown $10,000, $50,000, $100,000 into it? Sure,” said Schiff, adding:
“I may be worth hundreds of millions assuming I didn’t sell but again I don’t know what I would have done had I made that decision.”
The interview involved a debate from Pal and Schiff over whether Bitcoin is on a trajectory toward $0 or $1 million.
Just months earlier in a Nov. 29 interview with Yahoo Finance, Schiff referred to Bitcoin as a “pure ponzi’ that has no underlying value:
“Bitcoin is a pure ponzi, it's a pyramid, the demand for Bitcoin is based on the belief that you can sell it to somebody else at a higher price.”
However, in his latest interview, he reveals he seriously considered buying Bitcoin in 2010 when it was around $1. However, he ultimately decided against it, concluding the potential investment was “ridiculous.”
Still, it doesn’t mean Schiff likes Bitcoin
Schiff claims if he did buy Bitcoin he would have “kept quiet” he has never, and still doesn’t believe in its fundamentals.
“I would have bought it just betting on other people being dumb enough to buy it and pay a higher price.”
Schiff added that a successful Bitcoin investment would have made him feel more like a “genius” than a “gambler” and therefore, he would’ve fallen under the same “delusion” as Bitcoin investors, which he later described as “greedy” and “foolish.”
Schiff has long tried to steer his audience awayfrom investing in Bitcoin, routinely referring to it as a “fools” investment. However, every once in a while, he acknowledges Bitcoin hasn’t collapsed like how he has anticipated.
Perhaps to Schiff’s dismay, Bitcoin has long been viewed as a “digital gold,” and some analysts say Bitcoin has started eating into gold’s $14.6 trillion market cap since spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched in the United States in January.
Schiff has acknowledged that gold may be losing some of its market share to the spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, he believes investors may have trouble cashing out the funds when Bitcoin experiences a major fall.
Gold was priced at $1130 (per oz) at the start of 2010 and has increased 91.8% to $2,168 since then. However, it has been largely outperformed by many index funds, such as State Street’s Standard & Poors 500 ETF (SPY) which has increased 350% over that timeframe.
Bitcoin is currently the eighth largest asset by value at $1.4 trillion, which is only trailing gold, several U.S. tech stocks and Saudi Aramco, according to Companies Market Cap.
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Bitcoin price rollercoaster liquidates $360M from long and short sellers
Over $361 million worth of leveraged trades have been liquidated over the last 24 hours as Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $73,050 before falling back down below $70,000 on March 12.
The price swing mostly liquidated long positions — those betting it would rise — with $258 million erased, while short sellers were ousted a little over $103 million, according to data from crypto trading and information platform Coinglass.
It’s the largest long flush-out since March 5, when Bitcoin fell to $60,800 after notching its previous all-time high of around $69,000.
Volatility wasn’t as severe this time around, with Bitcoin’s price only swinging 4.85% between its March 12 low of $69,365 and a high of $72,733, according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin has since leveled out to $71,400 at the time of publication.
A 10x Research spokesperson told the uptick in volatility is likely stemming from traders anticipating a price correction.
“Traders are becoming more nervous that we could see a price correction as Bitcoin has failed to rally during [United States] trading hours when the ETFs start trading.”
“At the same time there is big FOMO going on,” which may mean the rally will continue, the spokesperson added.
10x Research also noted that futures open interestincreased 5% over the weekend — March 9 and 10 — which it suspects were put on with tight stops.
Bitcoin and Ether trades accounted for the most liquidations over the last 24 hours at $106.3 million and $73.3 million, respectively.
Solana, Dogecoin and the Bitcoin-based memecoin Ordi (ORDI) also saw significant liquidations.
The most short and long liquidations occurred on crypto exchange OKX, totaling $152 million, while Binance traders saw combined losses of $128.4 million.
Short sellers lost more than $6 billion trying to bet against publicly traded crypto firms over the first 11 months of 2023 as Bitcoin rallied 130% to $37,800 over the same time, according to research firm S3 Partners.
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Bitcoin has 6 months until ETF ‘liquidity crisis’ — New analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) faces a “sell-side liquidity crisis” by September if institutional inflows continue, an industry analyst says.
In a thread on X on March 12, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicted a BTC supply watershed “within six months.”
Ki: Bitcoin bears “can’t win” while ETF flows continue
Bitcoin as an institutional investment allocation is only just getting started, industry participants have said, as United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gain momentum.
Now holding nearly $30 billion, they have become the most successful ETF launch in history.
Should the trend continue, however, a new phenomenon could arise where there will not be enough BTC available to meet demand.
“Bears can’t win this game until spot Bitcoin ETF inflow stops,” Ki summarized.
He noted that ETFs alone put away more than 30,000 BTC last week, and with 3 million BTC in exchange and miner wallets, the odds of a supply-induced price shock become clear.
“Last week, spot ETFs saw netflows of +30K BTC. Known entities like exchanges and miners hold around 3M BTC, including 1.5M BTC by US entities,” he continued.
“At this rate, we'll see a sell-side liquidity crisis within 6 months.”
Continuing to buck the trend is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with daily outflows routinely hit $500 million.
Given BTC price gains since the ETF launch in January, popular commentator WhalePanda notes, the dollar value of GBTC’s diminished BTC holdings has, in fact, barely declined.
“GBTC being a little bitch again with $494 million outflows. Thanks Barry. They’re now setting below 400k Bitcoin,” he wrote in part of an X post, referring to Barry Silbert, former CEO of Grayscale parent firm, Digital Currency Group.
“The problem is that with the price going up and their massive outflows, their holdings in $ are still same as where we started at.”
1.4 million BTC to go?
When the tipping point from ETF demand comes, Ki forecasts the BTC price impact may be beyond market expectations.
“Once a sell-side liquidity crisis happens, its next cyclical top may exceed our expectations due to limited sell-side liquidity and thin orderbook,” he concluded.
Ki showed an ongoing broad uptrend in BTC held by so-called “accumulation addresses” — wallets with only inbound transactions — with this still needing to double before the “crisis” sets in.
As reported, accumulation address holdings have recently started cooling off as Bitcoin hits new all-time highs.
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Bitcoin at $71K, same as $20K last cycle — BTC price analysis
It’s still early in the Bitcoin bull market because the BTC price of $71,000 is equivalent to the $20,000 mark of the previous bull cycle, according to Willy Woo, a Bitcoin analyst and managing partner at CMCC Crest.
Woo’s Bitcoin price model upper bound is $337,000
Bitcoin breached the record $71,000 mark on March 11, three days after Ether surpassed the $4,000 mark for the first time since 2021.
Despite Bitcoin surpassing $71,000, the bull cycle is only starting, according to Woo’s price model, which is based on a composite of various metrics set to gauge investor behavior. Woo wrote in a March 11 post on X:
“BTC at 71k puts us *here* in visual of the upper and lower bound models. The upper bound right now is $337k. So this bull market is still early, equivalent to 20k of last cycle.”
Furthermore, the Bitcoin Macro Index broke the upper blue band this week, which signals that “we are in a full fundamentals-driven bull market,” noted Woo, sharing the chart below.
Crypto market peak by late 2024?
Meanwhile, the current bull market dynamics might result in an earlier macro top compared with previous cycles, argued analyst Rekt Capital. He wrote in a March 11 X post:
“If the accelerated perspective turns out to be true, then the next bull market peak may thus occur in 266 - 315 days. That’s December 2024 or February 2025.”
Additionally, Bitcoin analyst CryptoCoin also expects Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to accelerate by as much as one year. The analyst wrote in a March 11 X post:
“With #Bitcoin entering price discovery mode and new ATHs a year earlier than usual, we may be witnessing the death of the 4-year cycle. Our before, perfectly structured cycles would have called for a top late 2025, but we seem to now be right on track for a top late 2024.”
Another analyst paints $170,000 BTC price target
According to pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst Dave the Wave, Bitcoin could rally toward the $170,000 mark by May if the bullish momentum continues, based on technical indicators, such as the weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Traders often use the MACD to assess the potential entry and exit points. The pseudonymous analyst wrote in a March 11 X post:
“If the nascent parabola were to continue into a full-blown parabola, an argument for nearly 170K in May.”
However, these price targets are becoming modest in the current bull market. For example, Cathie Wood said on March 7 that ARK Invest’s long-term Bitcoin price target is “well above” $1 million.
“That target — it was before the SEC gave us the green light, and I think that was a major milestone, and it has pulled forward the timeline,” said Wood, referring to the regulatory approval of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States.
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Hong Kong Financial Institutions Eye Ethereum ETFs to Bolster Global Crypto Market Position
In the wake of the successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, financial institutions in Hong Kong are gearing up to tap into the growing demand for cryptocurrency investment products.
While Hong Kong opened applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs in December last year, no related products have hit the market yet, leaving Asian investors at the risk of lagging behind their American counterparts.
In an attempt to bridge this gap, Hong Kong-based institutions are actively preparing to launch spot ETFs for Ethereum.
The goal is to gain an edge over the United States, solidifying Hong Kong’s position in the global crypto market, as per reports from local media outlets.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Consistent Inflows
The cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States surpassed $2.24 billion last week, propelling the price of Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs.
As per data, the total asset under management of Bitcoin ETFs currently stands at $55.34 billion.
The top three performers in this space are GBTC, IBIT, and FBTC, managing $27.73 billion, $12.97 billion, and $8.35 billion, respectively.
These figures represent an increase of over 40% compared to mid-January prices.
Taking a cue from the Bitcoin frenzy, two Bitcoin futures ETFs in Hong Kong have also witnessed significant growth.
The Southern Bitcoin ETF (3066) reached a high of 27.5 yuan, a 2.5-fold increase from its listing price, while the Samsung Bitcoin ETF (3135) peaked at 26.8 yuan, marking a 2.2-fold increase.
Amidst the surge in Bitcoin-related investment products, market attention has turned to the development of Hong Kong’s Bitcoin spot ETF offerings.
Weng Xiaoqi, CEO of HashKey Exchange and COO of HashKey Group, emphasized the need for Asian investors to have access to local spot ETF products.
Currently, most of these products are led by European and American institutions, potentially leaving Asian investors at a disadvantage.
Weng pointed out that a six-month delay in launching spot ETFs in Asia would mean a delayed entry of U.S. capital, leading to higher purchase costs and increased risks of being overshadowed by American capital.
To address this concern, HashKey is collaborating with its partners to expedite the listing of trading products such as Hong Kong spot ETFs and derivatives.
Hong Kong to Attract Substantial Funds with Spot ETFs
Weng said that Hong Kong, as a well-established global financial center, has the potential to attract substantial funds once Bitcoin spot ETF trading opens, making it a significant player in Asia’s virtual asset market.
Although specific details regarding the listing of the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong are yet to be determined and authorized by the Securities and Futures Commission, it is expected that the initial number of ETFs listed in Hong Kong will be fewer than the 11 authorized in the United States.
Considering the difference in capital size between the Hong Kong and U.S. markets, concentrated liquidity with limited Bitcoin spot ETF listings would be more beneficial for Hong Kong’s development.
Weng emphasized that global crypto investors are particularly anticipating the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs, and Hong Kong is actively discussing and preparing for such products.
If the city state can introduce these offerings earlier than the United States, it has a chance to transition from a follower to a leader in the global crypto market.
Earlier reports indicated that 10 financial institutions in Hong Kong have expressed their intentions to apply for Bitcoin spot ETF launches.
Harvest Fund, for instance, submitted relevant applications to the Securities and Futures Commission in mid-January, signaling the growing interest in crypto-related investment products in the region.
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Bitcoin whales not selling despite $70K — BTC holdings growth ‘is going parabolic’
Bitcoin whales are not in a rush to sell into the current rally that propelled Bitcoin to new heights above $70,000, the latest on-chain data suggests.
Bitcoin whale population grows despite price record high
The number of unique addresses holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin — known as whales — has risen to 2,104 addresses as of March 7.
However, this is still lower than the record of 2,489 addresses reached in February 2021, when Bitcoin was trading above $46,000.
The rising wallet count could also be attributed to the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which surpassed $52.5 billion in cumulative trading volume on March 4.
The fact that whales are not selling their Bitcoin at these levels suggests that they expect prices to rise further. Bitcoin whales are important because the size of their trades can significantly impact price.
Julio Moreno, the head of research at on-chain intelligence firm CryptoQuant, also took note of the growth in a March 7 X post. Moreno wrote:
“The growth of whales’ Bitcoin holdings is going parabolic.”
Whales withdraw from BTC exchanges at record pace
Further evidence of Bitcoin whales not rushing to dump their holdings comes from several metrics measuring volumes between whales and exchanges.
Glassnode data shows that transfers from exchanges to whales have also “gone parabolic” to new record highs this month.
Meanwhile, the transfer volume from whales toexchanges has only seen a modest uptick compared to previous bull and bear market periods.
Overall, these metrics suggest a big influx of new investors into Bitcoin and that there is little sign of profit-taking by wealthy investors despite record high-level BTC prices.
Bitcoin ETF buying spree continues
On a fundamental level, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States continue driving demand for BTC. The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), for example, recorded its highest daily inflows of $788 million on March 5.
As reported, Bitcoin’s next big target could be around $92,500, based on a mix of technical, on-chain and fundamental indicators. Notably, Bitcoin charts recently printed a triangular formation resembling a bull pennant, widely regarded as a bullish continuation pattern.
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Bitcoin price hits $70K all-time high as US jobs data squashes US dollar
Bitcoin hit new all-time highs on March 8 after United States unemployment boosted the case for interest rate cuts.
BTC price sets new record
Data followed buoyant BTC price action as bulls sent the market into price discovery, reaching $70,184 on Bitstamp.
The largest cryptocurrency gained as the latest U.S. jobless data showed unemployment beating forecasts in February, indicating that inflationary pressures were waning at the hands of restrictive economic policy.
The unemployment rate nationwide came in at 3.9% — 0.2% higher than expected, while January figures for jobs added were revised lower.
“The market's reaction to this so far has been sending stocks higher,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter).
“This is largely due to the jump in the unemployment rate and large downward revisions.”
Bitcoin and altcoins followed equities in a risk-asset revival, with $70,000 hitting for the first time ever.
Commenting on the unfolding events, popular market participants stressed the significance of the timing of the new highs, these uniquely coming before a block subsidy halving.
As a result, BTC/USD could put in a macro cycle topsooner than previously thought.
“Bitcoin is doing what it has not done in history,” one such X post from Mikybull Crypto read.
“Cycle top is coming faster than what people projected.”
U.S. dollar gives up gains
The jobs data meanwhile spelled fresh misery for U.S. dollar strength.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell to nearly its lowest levels in two months on the release, bottoming at 102.36 and down nearly 5% versus its year-to-date highs.
The Federal Reserve’s next decision on whether to lower interest rates is due on March 20, with market expectations nonetheless hawkish.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of an impending cut at just 3%.
During the week, Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell in scheduled testimony, had maintained conservative language over future policy timing.
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Ethereum price clings to key support amid SEC probe and traders’ shifting sentiment
Ether price faced a significant setback after encountering robust resistance at the $4,100 mark on March 12. Ether has seen a 9% decline over the past week, underperforming when compared to the broader cryptocurrency market, leading traders to speculate whether the current support level of $3,200 will hold. For context, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by 2.5% during the same timeframe.
Ether’s bullish prospects hinge on spot Ether ETF approval
From a bullish viewpoint, the potential approval of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) remains a key catalyst. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing the matter, with a final decision anticipated by May 23. However, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart does not consider approval as his base scenario.
The recent upgrades to the Ethereum protocol should not be overlooked. The Dencun hard fork, which took place on March 13, aimed at enhancing the network's scalability and improving layer-2 data processing capabilities, is highly sought after by rollup solutions. As a result, transaction fees for most applications on Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base have significantly decreased.
As noted, in theory, Dencun’s enhancements are expected to encourage Ethereum users to embrace layer-2 solutions. Data indicates a surge in 7-day volumes for Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base by 145%, 144%, and 203%, respectively, thereby alleviating some of the downward pressure on Ether’s price that was attributed to high gas fees.
It's worth noting that competitors like BNB Chain and Solana provide significantly lower transaction fees at the base layer, which often appears more accessible to newcomers. Despite the positive impact on Ethereum’s ecosystem, Solana’s decentralized application (DApps) volumes have increased by 57% over the last week, according to DappRadar.
Regulatory challenges could adversely affect Ether’s price
The bearish outlook for Ether’s mid-term price is bolstered by the increasingly complex regulatory environment in the United States. Cointelegraph reported on March 20 that the SEC is scrutinizing companies for possible connections with the Ethereum Foundation, aiming to classify Ether as a security.
This move by the SEC was reportedly sparked by Ethereum’s transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake network, with several U.S.-based companies being asked to submit financial records and documents related to their interactions with the Ethereum Foundation.
Market experts, including Van Buren Capital and lawyer Scott Johnsson, suggest that the SEC's probe into Ether's status as a security serves as "an additional pretext to deny" the spot Ether ETF applications. However, this perspective is not universally shared, with Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, arguing, "The SEC has no valid reason to reject the Ether ETP applications."
To understand if professional traders flipped bearish after Ether’s price decline, one should use the ETH options 25% delta skew as a proxy. A skew metric rising above 7% indicates anticipations of a price drop, whereas a negative 7% skew typically reflects bullish sentiment.
From March 21 to the present, the ETH options 25% skew has increased from 0% to 5%, suggesting a cautious skepticism toward the $3,200 support level. However, one might argue that despite an 11% correction in Ether's price over a week, the skew metric has stayed in neutral territory, showing little sign that bearish sentiment has intensified.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Ethereum network maintains its leading position in terms of deposits, with a total value locked (TVL) of $94 billion. The initiative by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, to launch a tokenized asset fund on Ethereum solidifies the network's prominence. Consequently, there seems to be no compelling reason to doubt that Ether's support at $3,200 will break in the near term.
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BTC price dip hits 17.5% as week’s Bitcoin ETF net outflows near $500M
Bitcoin threatened a fresh breakdown through $61,000 on March 20 as analysis warned that support could “crack.”
BTC price weakness targets $60,000
Data tracked another night of BTC price losses, these so far bottoming at $60,760 on Bitstamp.
Now down 17.5% versus its all-time highs, BTC/USD continued to field selling pressure thanks to several key headwinds.
As reported, these include outflows from the United States’ spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the March 20 decision on interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
While the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is all but guaranteed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent commentary is under the microscope for risk assets.
“With the Fed meeting less than 24 hours away, it’s unlikely the Fed changes rates tomorrow,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its recent analysis on X (formerly Twitter).
“However, all eyes will be on guidance after the recent events. We maintain the view that it is far too soon to pivot.”
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the chances of a “pivot” — or return to rate cuts — at just 1% for March 20 and 9.1% for the next FOMC gathering in May.
June’s Fed event has noticeably better odds at 55%.
Analyst: “Some chop first” before Bitcoin ETF rebound
The spot ETFs, meanwhile, saw a second consecutive day of net outflows, per data from United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside.
While the exodus from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was lower than the record $642 million from March 19, low inflows to the other ETF products made for lackluster statistics.
“Almost $500M USD has flowed out of spot BTC ETFs in the past two trading days,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro responded.
“Traders taking a wait and see stance pre-FOMC (or just getting out) + tax season in the US being potential reasons for the slowdown. Regular programming will resume, but some chop first.”
In its “Asia Morning Color” daily bulletin sent to Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital nonetheless warned that the second net outflow day could have serious implications for BTC price strength.
“Grayscale saw slightly smaller outflows of -$443.5m overnight but will inflow from the other ETFs bring us to a net positive number today?” it queried.
“Another net negative number will likely cause support to crack.”
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Ethereum price drops 20% in a week, but investors are still bullish
Ether price experienced a 20% increase from March 3 to March 13, culminating in a double top formation near $4,100. Following the second rejection, ETH underwent a 20% correction, testing the $3,200 support on March 19. Analysts suggest that the initial rally was fueled by overly leveraged long positions.
Ether’s bullish momentum faded following the forced liquidation of $375 million in ETH futures over the past week, but the question remains whether this is sufficient for Ether to stop the correction and potentially kick-start a bull run again.
Ether’s price lagged competitors during the crash
Ether's downturn was more pronounced than the broader cryptocurrency market's performance, which saw its market capitalization peak at $2.77 trillion on March 14, stabilizing around $2.35 trillion, a 15.5% drop over five days. Ether's relative performance suffered due to Bitcoin's 12% weekly drop, Solana's 21% increase, and Binance Coin's slight 2% decrease during the same timeframe.
Interestingly, Solana faced challenges with increased fees and failed transactions as the network struggled to manage the surge in activity, mainly driven by a significant interest in new memecoins. Cointelegraph reported that traders injected approximately $100 million into new Solana memecoins within just three days.
The Ethereum network underwent its most significant upgrade in over a year on March 13, coinciding with Ether's price peak for the cycle in 2024. The hard fork greatly reduced transaction fees for layer-2 networks like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base, thus enhancing Ethereum's scalability. The introduction of data blobs also improved the network's data-handling capabilities.
This upgrade should be viewed as a success, evidenced by the surge in activity on layer-2 solutions to an all-time high, averaging 122 transactions per second (TPS) over the last two days, according to L2beat. This represents a 31% increase from the previous week and is more than eight times the base layer capacity of Ethereum at 15 TPS.
Despite the anticipation surrounding Ethereum's network upgrades, the base layer gas fees have remained a significant issue, with the average cost hovering around $12 on March 18, according to BitInfoCharts. This situation highlights the continuing appeal of alternative platforms like Solana and Avalanche. Notably, these were among the few cryptocurrencies in the top 20 to see gains over the past week.
Ether futures indicate moderate bullishness despite ETH’s price crash
On a positive note, the 20% correction in Ether since March 13 has led to the ETH perpetual contract funding rate approaching nearly zero. This indicates a balance in demand between those holding long positions and those shorting, suggesting a market equilibrium.
The funding rate's dip to its lowest level in three weeks at 0.014% per 8-hour period, equivalent to 0.3% over seven days, starkly contrasts with the previous week. Then, buyers were facing a 1.2% fee to keep their positions open for a week. This significant shift indicates a cooling off from the previously heated buying enthusiasm.
To understand whether professional traders have also changed to a neutral stance, one should analyze the monthly futures. Typically, in such markets, futures trade at a 5% to 10% premium over spot exchanges, reflecting the cost of carrying the investment until settlement.
Ether's futures have been trading at a 22% premium, an unusually high premium that suggests an excessive demand for long positions, possibly driven by optimism regarding the upcoming decisions on Ethereum's spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Remarkably, this optimism persists unabated, even after Ether's price correction to $3,200 on March 19, which could be seen as a bullish signal amidst the broader market recalibration.
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OKX reportedly delists USDT pairs in Europe
Seychelles-based cryptocurrency and digital assets exchange OKX has reportedly stopped support for Tether trading pairs in the European economic area, according to images shared on the X social media platform.
A message shared by X user MartyParty showed a screenshot of a customer support message that appears to confirm that USDT trading pairs are no longer supported in the European market.
Per the post:
“We would like to inform you that the availability of USDT trading pairs in your current region has been discontinued. Please note that not all tokens are supported in all markets due to regulatory requirements. […] Moving forward, only EUR and USDC pairs will be accessible for spot trading.”
The message went on to mention that over 30 new euro spot trading pairs will launch on OKX amid the USDT trading pair removals.
It remains unclear as of the time of this article’s publication exactly what provoked the reported delistings. Neither OKX nor Tether sent immediate responses to requests for further information by Cointelegraph.
Speculation abounds on social media that the delisting is related to stablecoin rules included in the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. While the aforementioned customer support message didn’t specifically state this to be the case, it did mention that “regulatory requirements” were responsible for the disparity in token listings across geographic areas.
As recently reported, EU regulators published draft rules for stablecoin issuer complaint procedures on March 14. While an update to complaint reporting seems relatively innocuous, the push for further legislation this late into the first quarter of 2024 could be troublesome for exchanges attempting to align compliance with the new rules.
The EU’s MiCA legislation is expected to take effect by the end of 2024, but stablecoin rules are slated for launch ahead of the comprehensive laws package in the second quarter of 2024.
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Solana Exceeds $200, Tops in Google Search Popularity
Solana’s native token saw am impressive increase in the past 24 hours despite wider market consolidation, exceeding $200. SOL is up 10.33% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $204.16 at press time, per CoinMarketCap.
Additionally, SOL boasts a market capitalization of over $90 billion, positioning it as the 4th largest crypto in the market.
On March 17, 2024, Solana hit past $200 mark for the first time since December 2021.
What Drives the Surge?
Notably, over the weekend, Solana’s network activity has surpassed that of Ethereum (ETH), thanks to SOL-based meme coins. Per DefiLlama, Solana’s total trading volume reached $3.52 billion, exceeding Ethereum’s daily volume by over $1.1 billion on March 16.
On Sunday, Solana-based BOOK OF MEME (BOME) token skyrocketed 322% in the last 24 hours. It has surpassed the $1 billion market cap mark with an impressive trading volume of $4.73 billion within a single day.
Another possible drive is attributed to Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL) in the past month. DefiLlama reported that the TVL has increased over 80%, marking the highest level in the past two years.
Solana Popularity in Google Trends Hit 100
In yet another significant move, the search popularity of ‘Solana’ keyword has recorded 100 in Google Trends. This marks the highest in the past five years.
“The second highest is the search popularity of 84 in early September 2021,” said blockchain online sleuth WuBlockchain.
However, this isn’t new to the cryptocurrency. In December 2023, search interest for Solana has vaulted to more than double search interest for Ethereum. The trend clearly indicated that investors are shifting their interests to SOL.
At the time, Google Trends data predicted that Solana’s search interest would soon get a score of 100. Per its definition, a value of 100 means “peak popularity for the term.”
As the trend surges, Lookonchain reported that large investors are capitalizing on profits by selling their SOL holdings.
“As the price of SOL rises, whales begin to sell SOL to make profits.”
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Bitcoin traders eye $60K BTC price support as ‘huge’ futures gap opens
Bitcoin lurched toward $60,000 on March 17 as selling persisted through the weekend.
“Constant spot selling” pressures BTC price action
Data showed new BTC price lows of $64,522 on Bitstamp.
After hitting new all-time highs during the week, Bitcoin faced considerable sell-side pressure, with a series of lower lows accompanied by failed rebounds.
On the day, offloading continued to gather speed well in advance of the hotly-anticipated weekly candle close.
Analyzing the situation, popular trader Skew outlined zones of interest for bidders on major exchanges. These focused on between $60,000 and $64,000.
“Majority of the selling has been driven by takers (market selling),” part of a post on X explained.
“Constant spot selling since $74K especially from coinbase & binance.”
Skew added that some entities were engaging in large dollar-cost averaging (DCA) at the lows, helping provide the low-timeframe bounces.
Bitcoin’s latest bull market correction thus totaled around 12%. As Cointelegraph reported, previous cycles saw considerably deeper pullbacks while still preserving the broader uptrend.
Optimistic market observers thus remained positive, referencing the ongoing buying from the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) which would resume on March 18.
“Yes, this is Bear Trap,” Thomas Fahrer, CEO of crypto-focused reviews portal Apollo, which tracks ETF flows, responded on X.
“Waves of liquidity are going to rain down on the Bitcoin ETFs. Real money hasn’t even started allocating. If a 1B Hedge Fund position sent BTC tumbling 10%, how high do you think 150B from advisers is going to send it?”
Fahrer appeared to reflect rumors of a fresh institutional wealth allocation to BTC potentially arriving in the coming months.
Latest Bitcoin futures gap nears $4,000
With more than 12 hours left until the weekly close, meanwhile, others eyed the potential for an early-week comeback.
Countering the bearish streak could be a job for the gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, this rapidly widening amid the weekend’s drawdown.
CME futures closed on March 15 at $69,135, and the resulting “gap” between there and spot price could provide an impetus for relief — in line with historical precedent.
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Dogwifhat Drama: Ethereum NFT Auction Sparks Controversy with Solana Community
A dispute has emerged within the colorful world of meme coins, pitting the Solana community against the owners of the real-life Shiba Inu that inspired the explosive Dogwifhat (WIF) meme coin.
The controversy revolves around the auction of an Ethereum NFT featuring the iconic photo of Achi, the dog who became the face of the popular Dogwifhat meme.
The saga began when a South Korean Instagram user, claiming to be the owner of Achi, announced their intention to auction an NFT of the original photo that sparked the viral meme.
The user, who had consistently posted pictures of Achi wearing various woven outfits over the past five years, revealed their plans to celebrate the dog’s fame.
The NFT auction, hosted on the Ethereum NFT platform Foundation, is set to conclude on Monday, with the current bid standing at a staggering 50 ETH, equivalent to over $182,000.
Community Hits Against Decision to Partner with Feisty DAO
However, the choice to partner with Feisty DAO, an online community experienced in acquiring and fractionalizing Shiba Inu-related NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain, sparked a wave of discontent among members of the WIF community and other Solana users.
Many expressed their disappointment that Achi’s parents didn’t collaborate with the WIF team on Solana for the NFT drop.
The backlash escalated to the point where Achi’s owners felt compelled to publicly address the criticisms.
“Please don’t insult [Achi] and us,” the owners wrote in a pinned comment on the Instagram post. “You have no reason to blame us. Please cheer for us.”
Interestingly, Achi’s owner had previously attempted to work with Solana users, but the experience turned sour.
Following the success of WIF, another meme coin called ACHI emerged with the support and endorsement of Achi’s parents.
However, the creators of ACHI allegedly abandoned the project shortly after its launch, leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of Achi’s parents.
Consequently, they decided to collaborate with Feisty DAO, a proven entity in the NFT space, to ensure a smoother and more secure auction process.
Solana Community Made Little Effort to Contact WIF Owners
While some members of the WIF community expressed frustration over the lack of coordination between Achi’s parents and the meme coin community, it appears that little effort was made by the community to establish contact with the family behind the dog that propelled their token to a multi-billion dollar valuation.
Despite the astronomical success of WIF, Achi’s parents claimed to have never heard from anyone in the WIF community until recently when they attempted to reach out.
Mihir, a member of the WIF community involved in the fundraising campaign to display Achi’s face on the LED screen-covered Sphere arena in Las Vegas, admitted that he was unaware of Achi’s owners until last week.
However, he acknowledged that they deserved recognition and some share of the spoils generated by WIF, which currently boasts a market capitalization exceeding $3 billion.
Path, the Feisty DAO member overseeing the NFT auction, expressed openness to the idea of re-minting the NFT on Solana if there was interest from the Solana community.
He even reached out to Ansem, a prominent member of the WIF community, to gauge their interest in purchasing the Achi NFT, but received no positive response.
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Bitcoin analyst expects 'big move' as BTC price taps new $73.8K record
Bitcoin delivered yet another all-time high on March 14 as anticipation of further BTC price upside grew.
BTC price: Another day, another all-time high
Data captured a new $73,794 record on Bitstamp.
Bitcoin had bounced back strongly overnight, erasing any trace of the weakness seen before the prior Wall Street open.
“Bitcoin dipped again earlier this week and once again successfully retested old All Time Highs as support,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted about recent events on X (formerly Twitter).
Excitement around familiar supply trends continued on the day, this centered on the buy-side impact of the United States’ spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These saw net inflows of $683.7 billion on March 13, per data gathered by United Kingdom-based investment firm Farside.
This far outpaced the day’s outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), firmly swinging supply squeeze momentum in bulls’ favor.
Reacting, statistician Willy Woo, creator of Bitcoin data resource Woobull, described the institutional products as “just getting started,” echoing sentiment from Cathie Wood, CEO of one ETF provider, ARK Invest.
“The ETFs are just getting started, institutions and wealth management platforms will take a couple of months to complete due diligence before proper allocation begins,” part of an X post predicted.
An accompanying chart shows overall Bitcoin network inflows, with the ETFs delineated as a small patch of dark green.
Also of interest to hodlers was news that tech firm MicroStrategy, currently the public company with the largest Bitcoin treasury, planned to amass more than 1% of the total BTC supply.
MicroStrategy, which currently owns 205,000 BTC, intends to spend $500 million on more, taking its tally above the 210,000 BTC threshold.
Capriole's Edwards: Bitcoin "getting ready for a big move"
Despite some misgivings over whether BTC price action would be able to sustain current momentum, bullish calls remained vocal on the day.
Among the optimists was Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, who forecast imminent fresh upside for BTC/USD.
“Bitcoin's getting ready for a big move,” he told X subscribers, adding in another post that "a billion a day keeps the dip away," referring to recent ETF inflows.
Last week, as reported, Edwards pronounced the “deep value” era for Bitcoin dip-buying as having come and gone.
“That ship has sailed,” he said.
“You had 2 years to pick up undervalued Bitcoin. Instead an exciting new chapter has begun.”
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Bitcoin price nails new $73.6K all-time high as ETFs eat away at supply
Bitcoin hit price discovery again before the March 13 Wall Street open as bulls beat out sell-side liquidity.
BTC price roars back after snap wick to $69,000
Data captured new all-time highs of $73,679 on Bitstamp.
BTC price strength had taken a breather the day prior, consolidating around the $72,000 mark and even seeing a snap $4,000 dip before abruptly heading higher.
In so doing, the market set up a repeat performance from the start of the week, where resistance kept upside moves in check — at least for a while.
On the day, it was $73,800 fulfilling that role, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
Beyond that, little friction stood in the way of price discovery toward $80,000, evidenced by a lack of liquidation levels.
“Bitcoin wiped out overleveraged longs, retested the 2021 cycle high & then bounced back to $72,000,” popular trader Jelle summarized on X, adding that the landscape was now “looking good” for upside continuation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs set record daily inflows
Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro noted the increasing wave of institutional money inflows.
These now dwarfed anything seen previously, even accounting for the United States’ new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
“Fund inflows like we have never seen before. It makes 2020 look small... price will continue to catch up over the coming months,” he told X followers.
“The steady grind to 100k is underway. Historically, when these flows peak, theres 2-3 months to GTFO of the market.”
The ETFs themselves fetched a record $1 billion of net inflows on March 12, final data confirms, with BlackRock’s product, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, enjoying the lion’s share.
“A record 14,706 BTC inflow on 12 March 2024,” BitMEX Research noted while uploading the numbers to X.
That amount alone represents a considerable portion of the newly-mined supply in 2024, totaling approximately 65,500 BTC.
The two largest ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments held in excess of 330,000 BTC as of March 13 — five times what miners added.
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Why is XRP price up today?
The price of XRP is up today, rising approximately 11.50% in the last 24 hours to $0.68. At its intraday best, the cryptocurrency was trading for as high as $0.74, its highest level since November 2023.
XRP's price gains today appear after massive capital transfers from crypto exchanges.
Notably, on March 8, an anonymous entity withdrew 300 million XRP worth over $187.13 million from Binance, according to data resource Whale Alert.
Similar outbound transactions worth $18-19 million occurred afterward, indicating that XRP's richest investors want to hold their tokens instead of trading them on exchanges for other assets.
That is further visible in the whale data from Messari. It shows that the number of addresses with a balance of over 1 million XRP has increased during the ongoing price rally.
This data suggests that large crypto investors are behind the current XRP price gains, which typically bodes well for more upside.
Capital rotation from Bitcoin markets
In addition, XRP’s price gain today appears alongside a sharp rebound versus Bitcoin as well.
Notably, the XRP/BTC pair has jumped by over 12% a day after dropping to 0.00000859 BTC, its lowest level since March 2021. This rebound shows some risk-on traders rotating from Bitcoin and into altcoins for greater profit potential in the short term.
Traders also rotate capital to reduce their risk exposure in overbought assets. Bitcoin, despite its 72.5% rise so far in 2024, remains "overbought" on the daily timeframe chart.
In comparison, XRP’s daily relative strength index (RSI) remains within the neutral range of 30-70, demonstrating a balanced sentiment among investors. This technically indicates that XRP could have more room to rise against the rally-leading BTC.
XRP price technical rebound
From a technical analysis perspective, XRP's price gains have emerged out of a support confluence area.
This confluence comprises XRP’s ascending trendline, 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMAl the blue wave) at $0.58, and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line near $0.59. These support levels resemble a fractal in November 2023 that preceded a 21.25% price rally.
So XRP price will eye a close above the multi-year descending trendline resistance to sustain its uptrend toward its popular target of $1. Conversely, a routine pullback from the resistance might resulting a drop of 20% toward its ascending trendline support near $0.50.
In this bearish scenario, the downside target is near XRP's 50-week (the red wave) and 20-week (the blue wave) EMAs.
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Bitcoin surges after crypto ETPs notch record $2.7B weekly inflows
The price of Bitcoin has surged to reach new all-time highs above $72,000, following a record-breaking week of inflows into crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs).
According to a March 11 post from CoinShares analyst James Butterfill, crypto investment products generated a record-breaking $2.7 billion worth of inflows as of March 8.
Year-to-date crypto ETPs have generated $10.3 billion worth of inflows, which is already nearly on par with the total $10.6 billion worth of inflows crypto ETPs witnessed throughout the whole of 2021.
Bitcoin accounted for the lion’s share of this figure, seeing $2.6 billion in inflows year-to-date and currently representing 14% of the total crypto-related assets under management (AUM) worldwide.
Days later, on March 11, the price of Bitcoin rallied to reach a new all-time high of $72,900. The asset has since leveled out and is changing hands for around $72,000, up 6.9% in the last week and 29% over the last month.
Inflows into crypto ETPs have been spurred significantly by growing investment into the roster of recently-approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which have now seen over $110 billion in total volume traded since their inception on Jan. 11.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that a total of five U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now held over $2 billion AUM, with crypto-native asset manager Bitwise’s BITB fund being the most recent addition to the club.
“Out of ~3,500 US ETPs there are only 445 with over $2 billion in assets,” Seyffart added.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore predicted that the current rally could see Bitcoin’s price push toward $80,000 in the coming months, adding that the crypto asset would be “well supported” on any potential dips.
Mikkel Morch, the founder of digital asset investment fund ARK36 told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s new all-time high also coincided with the London Stock Exchange accepting Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) exchange-traded notes, as well as increased willingness from the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority to accept new crypto-related financial products.
“This significant regulatory shift not only reflects London’s intention to remain a key player in the financial world but also signals a broader acceptance and institutionalization of cryptocurrencies.”
Morch looked to the increasing regulatory acceptance of crypto assets internationally, the upcoming halving event, and the continued growth of Bitcoin ETF inflows as heralding a “new era of growth and mainstream adoption for cryptocurrencies.”
“The cumulative effect of these factors is likely to sustain the rally and foster a more robust and diversified investment landscape for digital assets,” he said.
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Bitcoin breaches $70K for the first time
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $71,415 on March 11 after rising 2.62% in the 24 hours leading up to 08:05 am UTC.
The world’s first cryptocurrency rallied over 10% during the past week and 47% during the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data. The new all-time high comes three days after Ether breached the $4,000 mark for the first time since December 2021.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high 36 days before the much anticipated Bitcoin halving event set to occur on April 20, which will see mining rewards reduced from 6.25 BTC ($418,800) to 3.125 BTC ($209,400).
Bitcoin recorded its highest-ever weekly close of 68,955 on March 10, days after Bitcoin breached its previous all-time high of $69,200 on March 5.
Bitcoin ETFs amass over 4% of BTC supply
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum can largely be attributed to increased institutional interest generated by the recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
Since launch, the ETFs have amassed 4.06% of the current Bitcoin supply, surpassing $56.9 billion in total on-chain holdings, according to data from Dune. At this rate, ETFs are projected to absorb 8.65% of the BTC supply on a yearly basis.
The spot Bitcoin ETFs amassed a total of 33,000 BTC ($2.3 billion) last week, including Grayscale’s GBTC fund, which saw over 10,200 BTC in outflows, according to data from HODL15 Capital.
Digital asset manager Bitwise expects more institutions, representing “trillions of dollars in assets,” are preparing to buy into spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of June, according to a March 9 investment report sent to investors.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales continue holding onto their BTC despite the new highs. The number of unique addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC, also known as whales, has risen to 2,107 addresses as of March 9. Yet this is still lower than the record 2,489 addresses reached in February 2021, when Bitcoin was trading above $46,000.
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JPMorgan Expects $62 Billion Bitcoin Spot ETFs Market Over 2 To 3 Years
J.P. Morgan believes Bitcoin spot ETFs likely won’t see much AUM growth in the long term based on valuations of the asset next to gold.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote that Bitcoin ETFs, when assessed as a substitute for gold and adjusted for volatility, have an implied “realistic size” of $62 billion over the next two to three years.
JPMorgan Bearish On Bitcoin
That’s a less optimistic target than what more bullish crypto analysts project for the ETFs, which have already absorbed $9.3 billion of net flows since their launch 2 months ago. Combined with Bitcoin’s price appreciation since that time, ETFs including Grayscale have seen their AUM rise from $30 billion to over $50 billion.
According to JPMorgan, bulls are not accounting for the risk associated with Bitcoin, and thus vastly overestimating the share of investors’ portfolios that it will comprise. They bank wrote:
“Most investors take risk and volatility into account when they allocate across asset classes and given the volatility in bitcoin is around 3.7 times the volatility of gold it would be unrealistic to expect bitcoin to match gold within investors’ portfolios in notional amounts.”
Dividing the amount of gold currently held by investors ($3.3 trillion) by the Bitcoin’s volatility against gold (3.7), provides a figure of $900 billion in total Bitcoin allocation to investors. This implies a price per coin of $45,000 – far below Bitcoin’s current market price of $69,000.
The bank arrived at its $62 billion figure for Bitcoin ETFs by accounting for all gold held by funds, which equals $230 million, and dividing it by the 3.7 volatility multiple. Many of those funds, however, may have come from a rotational shift out of other Bitcoin-based investment vehicles and into the ETFs.
Bitcoin VS Gold
Gold ETFs in the United States roughly hold $92 trillion in assets, according to VettaFi. Their Bitcoin counterparts are the next largest commodity ETFs in the country.
Bitcoin and gold are often compared for their similar properties as investment vehicles. Neither has any intrinsic cash flows, but both are difficult to produce more of, and thus make for strong hedges against inflation.
Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, has often described Bitcoin as “digital gold” when discussing Bitcoin ETFs, and referred to investors’ appetite for the asset as a “flight to quality.”
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BNB price hit a 2-year high, but what’s backing the bullish momentum?
BNB price surged by 62% in 30 days after hitting its highest level in 2 years on March 8 at $489.50. This movement may have been driven by gains in the broader market, but it solidified BNB as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins. Some traders anticipate that BNB's price breaking above $500 is inevitable, but can the rally be sustained?
Binance and CZ’s future could negatively impact the BNB price
Many investors doubted BNB could ever reclaim the current levels, especially after Binance’s founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao entered a plea deal with the United States federal court in November 2023 for allowing exchange users involved in illicit activities to transfer “stolen funds” through the exchange. At that time, CZ agreed to step down as CEO, casting doubt on the future of the BNB token given that part of its value stems from the Binance exchange ecosystem.
CZ’s trial is still pending sentencing, but the fact that Binance settled with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in Dec 2023 helped alleviate uncertainty about BNB’s future. Binance was mandated to implement a formalized corporate governance structure, including compliance and audit committees. Meanwhile, CZ was ordered to remain in the U.S. until his sentencing date.
As cryptocurrency volumes surge to their highest levels in 12 months, some major exchanges, including Coinbase, experienced multiple outages, sparking criticism from various quarters. Crypto investor @ Rampage_Calls lamented Coinbase’s frequent outages on social media, while Binance trading reportedly remained unaffected.
Vijay Boyapati, a Bitcoin enthusiast and former Google software engineer, likened Coinbase's inability to provide liquidity during market rallies to MtGox, the bankrupt exchange that once dominated the market until its lack of proper structure led to a hack. Vijay urged Coinbase’s co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong to “fix this ASAP,” citing similar issues that plagued the exchange during the 2017 cycle.
In a way, part of Binance’s success, driving leadership in spot and derivatives trading volumes, stems from its robust trading engine and servers — at least when compared to Coinbase. Consequently, this movement encourages users to buy in, aiming to benefit from reduced trading fees and the ability to participate in the exchange’s token launch platform.
BNB rally has been backed by increased BNB Chain activity
However, much of the utility of BNB comes from the BNB Chain, making it sensible to analyze the network activity. The network’s smart contract deposits, measured by the total value locked (TVL), decreased by 7% in the past 30 days in BNB terms.
Data reveals that 12.8 million BNB has been deposited in BNB Chain’s decentralized applications (DApps), which is significantly lower than the 19.4 million recorded in early 2023. For comparison, Ethereum network TVL increased by 3% in ETH terms over the past 30 days, while Solana experienced a 20% TVL gain in the same period.
One could argue that certain DApps, such as NFT marketplaces and decentralized finance (DeFi) aggregators, do not necessitate large deposit sums. Therefore, measuring volume activity provides a better gauge of network use.
The recent rally in BNB’s price appears justified by BNB Chain’s 41% DApp volume gains in the past 30 days, and, notably, its third-place ranking overall. Furthermore, BNB Chain stands out when analyzing the number of active addresses engaging with its DApps, reaching a remarkable 5.6 million.
A more thorough analysis of the quality of BNB Chain’s activity and the potential impact on the Binance exchange after CZ’s trial is necessary to determine whether BNB is poised to reclaim the $500 level. Nonetheless, the initial data seems bullish.
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SEC pushes back decision to open up options trading on spot Bitcoin ETFs
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed its decision on whether to approve options trading on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — which could open the door for more institutional capital into Bitcoin.
In a March 6 filing, the SEC extended its time to respond to Cboe Exchange and the MiamiInternational Securities Exchange on their bids to offer options on Bitcoin ETFs.
It also delayed deciding on Nasdaq’s bid to offer options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), saying the delay ensures it has “sufficient time to consider” its request.
The exchanges all filed to list Bitcoin ETF options on Jan. 25, and the SEC faced its first decision deadline on March 10, as U.S. securities laws give it 45 days to decide or defer a decision on the matter.
Its deferral gives the agency another 45 days — its maximum 90 days under the law — to come to a final decision, which the SEC noted was April 24.
Options are derivative products that give traders leverage and let them make directional bets on the market.
If a trader thought Bitcoin’s price would rise, they could pay a premium, buy a “call option,” and agree to buy 1 BTC at today’s price in a month’s time while putting down less money than would be needed to buy 1 BTC.
If Bitcoin rises over the month, the trader could use their option, buy Bitcoin at the lower price, and maybe sell it for a profit. If it sinks, they’d likely just let the contract expire and forfeit the premium paid.
Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein called for the approval of options for Bitcoin ETFs last month, claiming they “contribute to a robust and healthy market.”
VettaFi analyst Dave Nadig told CNBC in January that once Bitcoin ETF options markets are live, “you’re going to start seeing all sorts of hedge fund players in the space.”
Nadig said those who weren’t “speculating on crypto directly in the crypto ecosystem are now going to have some to play with.”
The SEC approved 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs to start trading on Jan. 11 — the final day it had to decide on approval after months of delaying them.
Traders have brimmed the ETFs with cash — nine of the new ETFs, excluding Grayscale’s, which was converted to an ETF, had $25.87 billion in assets under management, according to March 6 BitMEX Research data.
The SEC is now having to decide on seven spot Ether ETFs. Analysts predict the agency is holding back until May 23 to approve them all on the deadline for VanEck’s application.
Multiple leveraged Bitcoin ETFs are before the SEC, with asset manager Direxion filing for five inverse and long spot Bitcoin ETFs in January alongside ProShares’ five leveraged Bitcoin funds and REX Shares’ six leveraged ETFs.
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