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Ethereum price closes in on $4K, but traders’ excessive optimism is a warning sign
Ether (ETH) bulls are on a roll after the altcoin’s price surged by 13% in 7 days, reaching the $3,900 level for the first time since December 2021. The current $456 billion market capitalization distances Ether from its competitors. However, excessive leverage using ETH derivatives poses a risk to the current bullish momentum.
Can Ether price blast past $4,800 this cycle?
Ether bulls see a decent possibility of the current bull run culminating with a new all-time high, mirroring what Bitcoin experienced on March 5, but excessive optimism poses a risk in terms of forced liquidations. To understand if $4,800 is a feasible target price for this cycle, one must first address the criticism and FUD that might limit Ether’s upside.
Besides the usual interpretation that the Ethereum network is not scalable, which has been partially solved through layer-2 solutions, some analysts cite dependence on the Ethereum Foundation and lack of regulatory clarity as reasons holding back Ether’s bullish momentum.
According to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, the cryptocurrencies that allow holders to stake their position could be interpreted as a security, given that it “looks very similar — with some changes of labeling — to lending.” But, the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) decision on May 23 could settle the debate, and analysts estimate 50% to 70% odds of approval.
While part of the centralization criticism is valid, according to a report from Electric Capital, the number of developers entering the Ethereum ecosystem increased by 16,700 in 2023, almost four times more than the 4,705 influx to Solana. Therefore, it becomes increasingly hard to deem that Ethereum’s development is concentrated in a specific set of companies.
Ether derivatives signal overconfidence and pose a risk
Essentially, the greatest short-term risk for Ether’s price arises from overconfidence among traders employing derivative instruments. The aggregate open interest of Ether futures surged to its all-time high on March 6, reaching $13.4 billion, indicating substantial demand for leverage.
Even more concerning is the Ether futures premium, which measures the price of monthly contracts against levels traded on regular spot exchanges, soaring to its highest point in over 18 months.
The Ether futures premium surpassed the 10% neutral threshold on Feb. 12 and recently peaked at 23%, indicating excessive demand for long positions. While this reflects confidence from professional traders following a 68% increase year-to-date in 2024, it also elevates the risk of cascading liquidations due to intraday volatility.
Likewise, the demand for bullish leverage positions from retail traders has surged to its highest levels in over 18 months.
Perpetual contracts feature an embedded rate that is typically recalculated every eight hours. A positive funding rate indicates increased demand for leverage longs, and levels exceeding 0.05%, equivalent to 1% per week, signal overconfidence.
None of this would pose an issue if Ethereum network metrics signaled strength, but the latest data has not been supportive of further Ether price appreciation.
Over the past 30 days, Ethereum decentralized applications (DApps) experienced a 6% decline in volume and an 11% contraction in the number of active addresses. Meanwhile, competitors BNB Chain and Solana witnessed a 52% and 71% growth in volume, respectively.
Ultimately, one could attribute the recent bullishness in Ether price to the potential approvalof a spot ETF. However, the excessive leverage from both retail and professional traders, more than 12 weeks ahead of the decision date, cast doubt on the sustainability of a surge above $4,800.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction Rallies as Coinbase Profits Soar, ETFs Drive $1T Market
Coinbase Reports Profit Surge Post-Bitcoin ETF Approval
Coinbase Global Inc. has reported its first quarterly profit in two years, marking a significant turnaround in its financial performance. This achievement comes in the wake of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), sparking renewed interest in the cryptocurrency market.
The approval led to a substantial 57% increase in Bitcoin’s price in the fourth quarter of 2023, contributing to a 64% rise in Coinbase’s transaction revenue, which reached $529.3 million.
The company’s success in the last quarter has set a positive tone for its future, with projections for its subscription and services division’s revenue to fall between $410 million and $480 million in the coming quarter.
A significant portion of this revenue growth in Q4 can be attributed to stablecoin transactions, particularly through the partnership with Circle for USD Coin.
This recent profitable quarter, coupled with a hopeful outlook, is expected to bolster investor confidence in the cryptocurrency sector, potentially leading to an uptick in Bitcoin prices.
Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF Soars: A New Chapter in Cryptocurrency Investment
Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has swiftly become a major player in the cryptocurrency space, accumulating nearly $5 billion in net assets and approximately 110,000 bitcoins since its launch about a month ago. This marks it as the leading spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) for bitcoin.
On February 14 alone, spot bitcoin ETFs experienced a remarkable inflow of $339.8 million, with IBIT capturing the largest share at $224.3 million.
Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, has publicly voiced his strong belief in bitcoin’s potential, further fueling investor enthusiasm despite concerns expressed by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler regarding bitcoin’s use in ransomware attacks.
The SEC’s endorsement of 11 spot bitcoin ETFs has significantly contributed to this bullish sentiment.
The robust accumulation of assets by IBIT highlights a growing institutional interest in bitcoin, suggesting a positive outlook for its market valuation.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin’s current pivot point stands around of $51,500, Bitcoin faces resistance levels between $53,601 and $56,863, delineating the hurdles for upward progression.
Conversely, support levels are established at $50,224, $48,441, and $46,736, offering a safety net against potential declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a position at 64, hinting at an overbought scenario that may lead to a corrective pullback.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 49,020 supports a bullish outlook, yet the proximity to overbought territory suggests vigilance for a possible near-term retraction.
This intricate balance underscores Bitcoin’s potential for both continued growth and the necessity for caution among investors.
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BTC price due $55.4K next amid warnings over end of Bitcoin 'euphoria'
Bitcoin is on the way to $55,000 this week — but warnings of a new bear market are already surfacing.
In his latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter) on Feb. 14, popular trader Titan of Crypto confirmed a $55,400 BTC price target next.
BTC price: Ichimoku analysis points higher
Bitcoin bulls continue to fight for the road toward all-time highs, with resistance around $52,000currently forming the battleground.
Titan of Crypto, capturing overall market sentiment, suggested that “extremely bullish momentum” could take BTC/USD another 6% higher in the coming week.
Uploading a weekly chart including Ichimoku Cloud data, he outlined one more upside target left to hit, with two already achieved.
“Both target 1 & 2 have been hit but $50,900 is a strong level. If Bitcoin manage to close a weekly candle above, target 3 at $55.4k is next,” part of the accompanying commentary stated.
“Note that given the extremely bullish momentum target 3 has high chance to get hit even before the end of the week.”
As reported, Ichimoku currently shows a rare bullish setup on weekly timeframes, with BTC price now clearing major resistance features.
Trader cautions over "unhinged greed" coming to Bitcoin
Looking ahead, however, concerns over a potentially “overheated” market are leading to BTC price downside predictions.
In a lengthy X post, trader and analyst Credible Crypto warned that even if existing all-time highs are exceeded and BTC/USD passes $100,000, the odds of a snap correction are increasing.
This, he says, represents natural market dynamics — despite heavy inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), nothing can remain in “up only” mode indefinitely.
“At the end of the day, for every major parabolic rise there is a major crash, and vice versa,” he wrote.
“You don't get unhinged greed and euphoria (and the vertical price appreciation that comes with it) without an equal and opposite reaction when that euphoria peaks.”
Credible Crypto referenced another post by trader and YouTuber TXMC Trades, who earlier told readers not to trust in ETF inflows propelling Bitcoin higher ad infinitum.
Others also maintain an air of caution over BTC price strength. For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading, the market is already “slightly overheated.”
“I wouldn't be unhappy if we got a slight correction to return to reality,” he concluded on the day.
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Bitcoin bulls flirt with $69K BTC price target as crypto market nears $2T
Bitcoin hit new two-year highs on Feb. 14 as bulls enjoyed a Valentine’s Day surprise.
Bitcoin bulls charge past $51,000
Data tracked a powerful BTC price comeback from $48,400 lows the day prior.
During the Asia session, Bitcoin not only erased its snap 4% losses but also added to long-term highs and was on course for $52,000 at the time of writing.
Characteristic bullish behavior saw BTC/USD add $1,000 in a single hourly candle, while the overall crypto market capitalization neared the $2-trillion line with Bitcoin’s passing $1 trillion.
Analyzing the low-timeframe setup, popular trader Skew showed an ongoing resistance/support flip on the four-hour chart.
The main trendlines to watch, he said, involved exponential moving averages (EMAs) and the relative strength index (RSI) score.
“I think so far this trend is fairly straightforward as long as the market sustains current bullish momentum,” he wrote in part of his latest post on X (formerly Twitter).
“4H EMAs will provide nice & concise trend confirmations along with RSI for momentum with current trend, as well when its clear current momentum is lost. Key closes often with these trends are daily open & weekly open.”
On Binance, Skew additionally noted that spot buyer interest had been front-running institutional inflows via the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
As continues to report, these continue to gain traction, with more and more BTC being bought up by the nine ETF providers on a daily basis.
BTC price performance “right on schedule”
Taking a longer-term view, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital suggested that everything was happening in line with classic bull markets for Bitcoin.
The timing of the BTC price recovery toward all-time highs was “right on schedule,” he told X followers this week.
Drawing comparisons to 2020, Rekt Capital noted the cathartic effect of the block subsidy halving, with BTC/USD generally beginning a “pre-halving rally” two months in advance.
The next halving is due in mid-April.
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Bitcoin drops under $50K as on-chain data and BTC market structure hint at profit-taking
Bitcoin breached $50,000 on Feb. 12 for the first time since December 2021 after rallying 15% in February.
However, as shown on the daily chart, BTC currently faces overhead resistance at $50,000, and the price retraced by over 2% on Feb. 13 after the United States Consumer Price Index report indicated 3.1% annual inflation, which was higher than the consensus expectation.
Bitcoin is “close to another transitional phase”
Bitcoin holders have enjoyed a positive start to 2024, but data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggests that the market may enter a transitional phase. Long-term BTC holders have spent more than 300,000 BTC since November 2023.
Since 2021, Bitcoin has registered a daily close above $50,200 for only 141 days, accounting for 2.84% of its trading history. The current price puts a majority of investors in a favorable position, where they may start taking profits. In fact, only 13% of the total supply is in a state of loss above $48,000. This data set coincides with BTC’s recent unspent transaction output (UTXO) ratio data.
UTXO refers to a transaction output that can be used as input in a new transaction. The UTXO ratio is defined as the number of transactions in profit or loss by comparing the price when a particular UTXO was created or destroyed.
When the UTXO ratio is high, it means the coins haven’t moved since they were created during that transaction. After BTC reached $50,000, the UTXO ratio reached 96.62%, which signaled that investors were beginning to see more profit.
On the other hand, short-term holders (STHs) have undergone a reset. During the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) rally, the STH supply in profit peaked at 100%, but BTC’s correction to $38,000 reduced its average to 57.5%.
Bitcoin ETF inflows soar
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed high net inflows last week. According to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the net cumulative flows for 10 ETFs reached over $3 billion. Additional data from a CoinShares report also highlighted that the total crypto assets under management reached $59 billion, the highest since 2022.
The strong Bitcoin ETF inflow has pushed the Coinbase premium index into a premium, indicating rising buying pressure on the exchange.
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Bitcoin trader 'sees $50K shortly' as BTC price erases 20% ETF dip
Bitcoin sought new two-year highs at the Feb. 12 Wall Street open amid fresh optimism over institutional buying.
BTC price consolidates below key resistance
Data showed BTC price action passing $49,000.
The prior daily close saw the highest levels in a month as bulls initially held their own, managing $48,800 before a retracement took the market $1,000 lower in the coming hours.
With significant resistance overhead, a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers was the key talking point.
“$BTC consolidating under previous top,” popular trader and educational content creator Mac told followers on X (formerly Twitter).
“Last time I saw something like this we exploded up. I see $50,000 shortly.”
Fellow trader Jelle meanwhile suggested that BTC/USD was already in a prime position to tackle all-time highs, now around $20,000 away.
“Historically, it does not take very long for #Bitcoin to reach the other end of this range,” he notedalongside a chart.
“Is this time different?”
As reported, some are cautiously approaching the $50,000 topic, among them Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators.
BTC/USD, he wrote in an X post on the day, would do well to retest support again, but traders should not take the consolidation scenario as a given.
“While I think it would be healthy to see #Bitcoin retest support, confirm an R/S flip and establish a foundation for another leg up, we must be prepared for the opposite scenario as well,” he concluded.
“There is a lot of sentiment for $50k and there isn't a lot of ask liquidity above it to slow price down if price manages to break the Golden Pocket (.618 Fib). If it does, shorts are gonna get hella squeezed.”
Alan referenced the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $48,300, as measured from the 2021 all-time highs.
Bitcoin ETF flows fuel bullish price takes
Meanwhile, the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) garnered increasing interest as the week began.
Inflows saw their second-best day the week prior, with more than $400 million in a single day among the nine products on Feb. 9.
The latest data from crypto research firm Arkham put the Feb. 12 outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) at around 2,900 BTC ($140 million).
“Outflows from $GBTC remain relatively low,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades responded, noting that ETF flows had been net positive for 11 straight days.
As reported, hope is increasing that the ETFs alone will be able to propel BTC price action higher, potentially even challenging all-time highs in the coming months.
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Ethereum network strength, macroeconomic factors back ETH’s rally to $2.5K
Ether price witnessed a 10% price increase in the first nine days of February, breaking above $2,450 for the first time in three weeks. This movement was aligned with the broader cryptocurrency market’s bullish momentum and significantly influenced by the macroeconomic environment.
Despite the reasons behind Ether’s rally, investors are growing more bullish as deposits on the Ethereum network increase. However, is this momentum sufficient for a sustainable rise above $2,800?
Weak economic data in China and U.S. fiscal debt trends create opportunity for risk-on assets
On Feb. 4, United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for a more sustainable public debt path in an interview. In 2023, U.S. debt service costs represented 2.4% of the economy’s gross domestic product, and projections indicate a potential increase to 3.9% in 2034, as reported by the Congressional Budget Office. These projections will prompt the Fed’s policy interest rate to decrease, according to Neil Irwin, author of Axios Macro.
Traditional finance investors faced additional concerns from China when the January Purchasing Managers’ Index revealed manufacturing activity contraction for the fourth consecutive month. Following the Chinese central bank’s largest cut in mandatory cash reserves for banks in three years, the government introduced measures to support the real estate development market, currently under pressure due to high debt leverage, according to AP News.
Investors also sold some fixed-income positions, causing the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to reach its highest level in two months at 4.48%, up from 4.21% on Feb. 1. Simultaneously, on Feb. 9, the S&P 500 index reached a record high above $5,000, indicating that investors are not overly concerned about a potential economic crisis, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, the U.S. fiscal debt trends, highlighted by the Fed chair, create an ideal scenario for scarce alternative assets such as Ether.
This movement poses challenges for cryptocurrencies as the stock market continues to attract the majority of the flow for risk-on assets. However, it simultaneously opens the door for alternative investments, as some stocks, like chipmaker Nvidia and e-commerce giant Amazon, are currently trading at 33x earnings for 2024, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 22x.
Ether’s price rally is backed by the Ethereum network activity
To assess whether Ether’s price gains in February are backed by sustainable demand for ETH, one should monitor the Ethereum network’s on-chain activity. The network’s smart contract deposits, measured by the total value locked (TVL), reached an 11-month high on Feb. 9 at 16 million ETH, marking a 19% increase from the previous month. However, most of the surge occurred on the EigenLayer liquid staking solution, which jumped to a $5.85 billion TVL on Feb. 9, up from $1.15 billion the previous month.
Other noteworthy mentions encompass the liquid staking applications Mantle LSP and Ether.fi, along with the yield farming service Pendle. Importantly, the Ethereum network has maintained its status as the absolute leader in fees, serving as a proxy for effective demand. To illustrate, Ethereum’s $10.4 million in fees over 24 hours is eight times larger than Tron’s and more than 12 times higher than BNB Chain's, as reported by DefiLlama.
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Bitcoin ETFs record third-largest inflow day as BTC price rises above $46,000
On Feb. 8, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced their third-largest influx, totaling $403 million. The large inflows came despite over $100 million exiting the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
The total inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs has already exceeded $2.1 billion since their launch on Jan. 11, indicating a strong demand for BTC in the market. The third-largest inflow day for spot BTC ETFs came as BTC price crossed $46,000 to record a new multiweek high just $2,000 short of new yearly highs.
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leads the ETF flow chart with an inflow of $204 million, Fidelity had $128 million, ARK 21Shares had $86 million and Bitwise had $60 million. The other seven ETFs combined saw $27 million in inflows, with GBTC recording another $102 million in outflows.
IBIT also became the first ETF to exceed GBTC’s daily trading volume. However, the total trading volume of all 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs fell below $1 billion for the first time since they launched.
Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that BlackRock overtaking Grayscale in terms of trading volume is a big feat, considering it usually takes about five to 10 years for a new fund to overtake the category’s “liquidity king.”
Market pundits view the positive flow into Bitcoin ETFs as a sign of appetite and growing demand from investors. The net flows into the ETFs mean around $403 million, or roughly 8,698 BTC, was taken off the market and sent into cold storage.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired United States Securities and Exchange Commission approval for listing on Jan. 10 and started trading the next day. Since their launch, spot BTC ETFs have seen record trading volume, with over a billion dollars being traded daily, indicating a strong investor interest.
The next Bitcoin halving is coming in less than 70 days, which will see the market supply of BTC cut in half from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. With the growing demand from institutional investors, the diminishing supply could help BTC hit new market highs.
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BTC price nears $45K amid warning Bitcoin leveraged traders in control
Bitcoin held around 3% higher on Feb. 8 as crypto markets teased some much-needed upside.
Bitcoin adds nearly $1 billion open interest
Data showed BTC price action focusing on $44,700.
The largest cryptocurrency spiked to $44,766 on Bitstamp after the Feb. 7 daily close, marking its highest levels in nearly a month.
While comparatively modest in percentage terms, the move went some way to alleviating the frustrating landscape around BTC/USD in place since mid-January. As Cointelegraph reported, the pair has remained tightly rangebound.
“Bitcoin going for it again, as we're approaching $45K. The range is still defined,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading, wrote in his latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter).
“I think we'll reach $48-51K pre-halving and correct back down for some more consolidation.”
Van de Poppe referenced the short-term BTC price timeline culminating in the block subsidy halving event, which is currently scheduled to hit around April 17.
Among some traders, however, the mood was cautious. Reviewing what led to the latest uptick, J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, warned that its longevity may be limited.
“This pump is driven by leverage,” part of an X postread on the day.
“The Open Interest has increased by +$982m in less than 24 hours. While this can be manageable if the price holds steady, brace yourself for volatility if it starts to reverse.”
Significant increases in open interest over a short period have been responsible for snap BTC price moves before, among them during October’s run from $28,000.
In what could help stem any sudden market turnaround, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro noted increasing bid liquidity versus a thinning out of would-be sell-side pressure.
BTC price optimists double down on halving, macro risk
As continues to report, the halving is responsible for an increasing number of bullish BTC price predictions.
These even include a potential run past $60,000before mid-April — a theory since repeated by its creator, popular commentator Fred Krueger.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes likewise reiterated his faith in sky-high Bitcoin prices this week, but for different reasons, particularly the resurgent instability in the United States regional banking sector.
“Almost this time last year, just after the banking crisis, I said Bitcoin was about to start its bull market,” James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, continued on the topic.
“As of this moment, coins continue to be acquired at higher prices; this is a highly orderly bull market.”
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BTC price to $1M? Bitcoin bulls dare to dream as NYCB hits 1990s levels
Bitcoin million-dollar price tags are back as the United States regional banking sector dices with crisis.
Almost a year to the day that multiple banks, including crypto-focused Signature Bank, collapsed, its buyer is down 60% year-to-date.
Hayes keeps $1 million BTC price bet on the table
In what may end up a peculiar dose of deja vu, Bitcoiners are witnessing what some say is the early innings of a second U.S. banking crisis.
Coming close to the one-year anniversary of the initial turmoil, New York Community Bancorp. (NYCB) has seen the value of its stock plummet 30% in just five days.
Closing at $4.20 on Feb. 6, per data from TradingView, the bank’s performance is raising alarm — and the fact that it was NYCB that acquiredthe failed crypto bank Signature last year is not lost on Bitcoin circles.
“NYCB bank to its valuation from 1997,” Benjamin Cowen, CEO and founder of crypto newsletter Into the Cryptoverse, noted in a reaction on X (formerly Twitter).
“Investor protection at its finest.”
In March 2023, Bitcoin saw flash volatility as regional banks began disintegrating —a domino effect, which eventually led the Federal Reserve to step in with the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).
This has run for a year, but will not be renewed — something which Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives giant BitMEX, believes will provide the backdrop to a repeat performance.
At the time, BTC price action initially suffered amid the uncertainty before capitalizing on the situation. As Cointelegraph reported, Hayes sees a potential dip to $30,000 this March, followed by a copycat rebound.
NYCB’s losses, combined with ratings agency Moody’s cutting its status to junk, has additionally led him to repeat a $1 million BTC price forecast.
“From junk to bankrupt, that’s the future. And then more money printer go brrrr,” part of an X postreads.
Bitcoin plays it cool
As continues to report, instability is not only affecting the U.S. this month.
China’s CSI 1000 index has lost $7 trillion since Q4 last year, dropping 8% in a single day on Feb. 5 before rescue rumors saw it whipsaw higher.
Bitcoin, still fresh from the flux created by the launch of U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has yet to demonstrate major price interest in these would-be macroeconcomic triggers.
BTC/USD has now remained in a clearly-defined daily range for more than 150 days, data confirms.
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BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF reaches top 0.2% of all ETFs so far this year
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has made it into the top 0.16% of all United States-issued ETF products.
The spot Bitcoin ETF has topped $3.19 billion in flows, according to Feb. 5 data from Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, being surpassed only by broad index funds tracking the S&P 500 and Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF.
According to data from YCharts, BlackRock’s ETF flows so far place it in the top 0.16% of ETFs when weighed against the 3,109 ETFs currently trading in the United States.
Balchunas arrived at a slightly different figure of 0.02% — a figure that appears to measure BlackRock’s ETF performance against an estimated10,000 ETFs worldwide.
Fidelity’s Bitcoin Fund is also a top performer with $2.51 billion — placing it eighth among U.S.-based ETF products.
The BlackRock and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs continue to climb the list, having stood at eighth and 10thposition at the end of January.
It's worth noting that while the total flows of other U.S. ETFs are being counted from Jan. 1, 2024, spot Bitcoin ETF products were only approved for trading on Jan. 11. This means that the Bitcoin ETFs are at a seven-trading-day handicap when compared to all other products.
BitMEX Research data shows a widening gap between BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs against the seven other spot Bitcoin ETFs (excluding Grayscale) in flow.
ARK 21Shares and Bitwise are third and fourth among spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $683.7 million and $663.6 million in accumulated flows, according to Feb. 5 data from BitMEX Research.
Invesco, Galaxy, and Valkyrie are the other spot Bitcoin ETF issuers that have recorded over $100 million in total flow, while WisdomTree remains in last place with just $11.1 million.
As of the time of publication, net flows into all ten spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $1.5 trillion since the products first began trading.
Outflows from Grayscale continue to shrink
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s converted spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its sixth successive day of shrinking outflows at $73 million on Feb. 6, according to BitMEX Research and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
Inflows from the other Bitcoin ETF issuers are now consistently outpacing outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC for at least seven consecutive days.
The latest figure is down 88% from Grayscale’s worst day of outflows on Jan. 22, which saw $640 million leave the newly converted ETF.
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Monero plummets to 5-month lows as Binance announces delisting
Major privacy-focused cryptocurrency Monero has plummeted to multi-month lows amid Binance announcing the upcoming delisting of the token from its platform.
Binance will delist Monero alongside other tokens like Aragon (ANT), Multichain (MULTI) and Vai (VAI) on Feb. 20, 2024, the exchange announced on Feb. 6.
As a result of the delisting, Binance will remove all four trading pairs involving Monero, including those trading against Bitcoin, Ether, Tether and Binance’s native coin, Binance Coin.
“All trade orders will be automatically removed after trading ceases in each respective trading pair,” the announcement notes, adding that withdrawals of these tokens will not be supported after May 20, 2024.
The delisted XMR may still be converted into stablecoins on behalf of users after May 21, but the conversion “is not guaranteed,” Binance stated. “A separate notification will be made before the conversion where applicable, and the stablecoins will be credited to users’ Binance accounts after the conversion,” the firm added.
The decision to delist XMR is based on various factors, including “contribution to a healthy and sustainable crypto ecosystem,” “evidence of unethical or fraudulent conduct or negligence,” as well as responsiveness to Binance’s periodic due diligence requests and others.
The price of Monero quickly reacted to the delisting news, with the token seeing a sharp decline. At 9:21 am UTC, XMR plummeted to a low of $136 on Binance, losing nearly 19% of its value in just a couple of hours, according to data from TradingView.
The Monero price has slightly recovered since, with XMR trading at $140.30 at the time of writing, according to TradingView data. Monero has touched lows not seen since mid-September 2023.
Binance isn’t the only exchange to delist Monero. In late 2023, crypto exchange OKX also said it would delist Monero and another privacy-focused coin, Zcash (ZEC), on Jan. 5, 2024.
Binance also previously announced plans to delist all privacy tokens in countries like France and Italyin May 2023, but eventually reversed its decision in June 2023.
According to some online commentators, the delisting could be a bad news not only for Monero, but also for Binance.
“While bad for Monero, I mainly see this delisting as a sign of the slow demise of Binance,” cryptocurrency trader John Brown wrote in an X post.
Despite former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao pleading guilty in a U.S. court to breaking anti-money laundering and sanctions laws in late 2023, the exchange has continued to face pressure from global regulators. In late January, reports suggested that Binance.US was banned from operating in Florida and Alaska.
Zhao — who failed to receive approval to travel to his home in the United Arab Emirates — is set to be sentenced in the U.S. on Feb. 23, 2024 and faces up to 18 months in prison.
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BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Price Hit $1 Million on Bank Bailouts
BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes earlier posted on X a scenario where he sees Bitcoin price touching $1 million.
Hayes tweeted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is saying US banks are strong to very strong, but NYCB (New York Community Bancorp) says otherwise.
Who is right, the market or the central banker? Hayes questioned.
BitMEX co-founder and Bitcoin bull then predicted that the bailout is coming and the price of the leading cryptocurrency by market cap may equal to $1 million.
As per Arthur’s evaluation, US banks will once again need a massive bailout and federal reserve and treasury will infuse huge monetary supply into the market, driving Bitcoin’s price higher.
Hayes Expects 20-30% Correction by Late March
As reported earlier in January, Hayes predicted a massive correction in Bitcoin’s price, anticipating a decline ranging from 20% to 30% by early March.
Hayes outlined his viewpoint in a detailed post, warning traders amidst the ongoing crypto bull market. Hayes anticipates a potential harsh correction in March, preparing for what he terms a “vicious washout” affecting crypto investors who may be considered “tourists” in the market. Arthur Hayes wrote:
“I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy 20% to 30% correction from whatever level it has attained by early March. The washout could be even more severe if the slate of US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has already commenced trading.”
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Spanish Treasury to seize crypto to pay tax debts
The Spanish Ministry of Finance is looking to expand its control over the monitoring of cryptocurrencies in the country to allow it to seize digital assets to settle tax debts.
The ministry, led by María Jesús Montero, is developing legislative reforms to the General Tax Law, specifically Article 162, to allow the Spanish Tax Agency to identify and seize crypto assets owned by taxpayers who have overdue debts, according to reports.
A royal decree, which came into force on Feb.1, expands the number of entities to be given tax collection powers. Until now, only banks, savings banks and credit cooperatives could report to the Treasury.
The Treasury is also planning to fight tax evasion more aggressively. It is looking to force banks and electronic money institutions to report on all card transactions.
The speed at which the changes are being implemented poses some challenges on the regulatory front. The country is trying to move proactively with various regulations to govern crypto.
In October 2023, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Digital Transformation reported that the first comprehensive European Union crypto framework, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), will come into force nationally in December 2025, six months before the official deadline.
Spanish residents holding any crypto assets on non-Spanish platforms have until the end of next month to declare them to the tax authorities.
The submission period for a form 721 declaration started on Jan. 1, 2024, and ends on the last day of March. Individual and corporate taxpayers must declare the amount of funds stored in their crypto accounts abroad as of Dec. 31, 2023.
However, only individuals with balance sheets exceeding the equivalent of 50,000 euros (around $54,000) in crypto assets are obliged to declare their foreign holdings. Those who store their assets in self-custodied wallets must report their holdings through the standard wealth tax Form 714.
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Bitcoin accumulation phase ends as ETFs fuel new $100K BTC price target
Bitcoin is ending a year-long accumulation spree that began at the end of the 2022 bear market, data suggests.
Figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode show BTC in accumulation addresses declining for the first time since the first quarter of 2023.
Bitcoin accumulation wallets start shedding BTC
Bitcoin hitting all-time highs this week may have sparked an instant sell-off, but behind the scenes, hodlers are already busy taking profits.
Glassnode shows that coins held in so-called “accumulation addresses” — wallets with no outgoing transactions and at least two “non-dust” inbound ones — are dropping.
Beginning Feb. 11, the turnaround began breaking with a year-long tradition and came as BTC/USD returned to $48,000 — the top of a key long-term trading range.
Since then, accumulator balances have fallen 2.6% to 3,176,293 BTC ($212 billion) and show no sign of reversing.
Zooming out, the phenomenon can be seen to be far from bearish.
Despite declining exposure, accumulator wallets have historically spent long periods amassing coins at a discount — only starting to sell at the start, not the end, of parabolic uptrends.
Looking at balances throughout Bitcoin’s existence, a broader accumulation trend in place since mid-2018 remains entrenched, contrasting starkly with a huge reduction up to that point, which began in 2016, just as Bitcoin started to run to old $20,000 all-time highs.
$100,000 BTC price this year?
As reported, the January launch of the United States spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has had a unique impact on supply dynamics.
Steady buying pressure has now led to phenomena never seen before, including hitting an all-time high before a block subsidy halving.
Analyzing the current trajectory, Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, suggested that ETF demand could propel Bitcoin to six figures as early as 2024.
“It appears that the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval launched an accumulation that, if sustained, puts $BTC at $100K by October 2024,” he toldsubscribers on X on March 7.
An accompanying chart compared unspent transaction output (UTXO) numbers to BTC price performance, noting growth of 0.34% per day.
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Ethereum traders target $3K, but historical data raises a few red flags for ETH price
Ether price has been on an upward trend for the past 10 days, accumulating gains of 21.5% during this period as it flirts with the $2,800 level. The bullish momentum in cryptocurrencies is attributed to the strong inflow into the recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. However, Ether has additional drivers that could potentially propel its price above $3,000—a level that left scars the last time it was tested in March 2022. Will Ether’s eventual rally to the $3,000 turn out differently this time?
From a bullish perspective, Ether could consolidate its vice-leadership as the second cryptocurrency to have its spot ETF listed on U.S. exchanges. This would distinguish it from competitors such as Solana and BNB Chain in terms of access and regulation. Exchanges, including Binance and Coinbase, are still facing lawsuits from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding security offerings. Therefore, an Ethereum ETF approval in the U.S. would significantly diminish uncertainty for its investors.
Other positive drivers for Ether include the Dencun network upgrade, expected on March 13. The hard fork aims, among other things, to reduce transaction costs on the Ethereum layer 2. By offering more block space and reducing gas costs for rollups, these changes could potentially boost the usage of its decentralized applications (DApps) and increase deposits in its smart contracts. This, in turn, translates to a higher demand for ETH.
Ether bulls have multiple reasons to believe that $3,000 is within arm's reach, but history shows that sustaining such a price level is much harder. For instance, three weeks prior to April 3, 2022, ETH gained 42%, rising from $2,520 to $3,580. However, the rally proved unsustainable as its price nosedived by 46% in the following 40 days. Traders now question whether Ether could face a similar outcome this time around.
The first metric one should analyze is Ether’s futures premium, which indicates the leverage demand between longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers). Professional traders prefer monthly futures contracts due to the absence of a variable funding rate, but these instruments tend to trade at a 5% to 10% premium to compensate for their extended settlement period.
Data reveals that the ETH futures premium soared above the 10% neutral threshold on Feb. 10 and currently hovers near 15%. Although not deemed excessive, this level indicates that bulls demanded additional leverage as ETH moved from $2,300 to the current $2,800 level. In contrast, the annualized premium (basis rate) in early April 2022 stood at 5.5%, which is considered neutral.
One should analyze the options markets to better gauge how professional traders are positioned using the 25% delta skew as a proxy. If traders expect a drop in Ether’s price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically have a -7% skew.
The delta skew metric entered the -7% threshold for bullish markets on Feb. 9 and is presently near the lowest levels in three months. These findings align with ETH futures data and paint a picture of a moderate degree of optimism, which is not excessive but also unbalanced between bulls and bears.
Traders betting on a price increase based on the odds of the Ethereum spot ETF approval could face disappointment, especially if they use leverage. Even if the approval odds from senior Bloomberg ETF analysts stand at 70%, the final deadline for the SEC is May 23, meaning price volatility presents an enormous risk of liquidation even if ETH blasts past $3,000 ahead of the event. Still, Ether derivative metrics point to an entirely different scenario versus April 2022, so nothing is set in stone for ETH bulls.
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Why is Ether (ETH) price up today?
Ether is up today, rallying in excess of 3% over the last 24 hours to trade above the $2,800 level. Ether’s price is up 16% over the last seven days, mirroring Bitcoin’s, 16.3% uptick over the same time period.
The rally in Ether can be attributed to Ether’s decreasing supply on exchanges due to staking, accumulation from ETH whales and growing optimism from retail and institutional investors.
Ethereum staking moves higher
According to data from Dune, the supply of ETH staked on the Beacon Chain has now reached 30,708,316 ETH, accounting for 25.56% of all ETH’s current supply. This is worth over $86.68 billion at the time of writing and 31.65% of these ETH are staked through Lido.
The chart below shows that investors deposited more than 600,000 ETH between Feb. 1 and Feb. 15 into the Ethereum 2.0 staking contract.
Ethereum restaking protocols are also seeing an increase in the number of tokens locked on layer-2 blockchains. The total value locked (TVL) on Ethereum restaking protocol EigenLayer increased by 33% over the last seven days to $7.09 billion on Feb. 15, surpassing cryptocurrency lending protocol JustLend and Aave to claim the third position, according to data from DefiLlama.
Restaking involves reusing staked or locked-up Ether to boost Ethereum staking yield and earn a percentage of protocol yield and points toward airdrops.
An increase in staked Ether ensures the efficiency and security of the network, and it also reduces the supply of tokens available to buy and sell on exchanges, resulting in increased demand as supply is reduced. This could be a bullish sign for Ether.
Ethereum pro traders increase their bullish bets
Ether’s price action has historically mirrored Bitcoin. This has added to traders’ expectations that with BTC breaking above $50,000 on Feb. 12, ETH could follow suit and make a similar break above $3,000 over the next few days.
Derivatives metrics show a significant increase in how speculative traders place their long bets.
Data from CryptoQuant shows the ETH funding rate spiked to 0.4% on Feb. 13 – the highest since Jan. 8, suggesting that pro traders are placing more leveraged bets on a potential ETH price ascent.
Increasing positive funding rates suggests that traders with long positions are willing to pay higher fees to short traders since they anticipate that an increase in price will occur.
Ethereum whales are increasing their holdings
Ether’s price rally is further boosted by the optimism that a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be approved in the first half of 2024.
The most recent development is that asset management firm Franklin Templeton joined the Ether ETF race when it filed an S-1 application with the SEC on Feb. 12.
In readiness for this, institutional investors are displaying their optimism for the largest altcoin with increased purchases of ETH.
According to data from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, the 24% price increase in ETH since the beginning of February could be attributed to a whale who has purchased approximately 69,500 ETH, worth $179 million at current rates, from leading exchanges such as Binance, Bybit, Bitfinex, and OKX in the same period.
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Bitcoin ETFs inflows snowball: Last 4 days bigger than first 4 weeks
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted more net inflows in the last four days than in the entire first four weeks of trading.
According to data from Bitcoin tracking platform Apollo, the 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs have had 43,300 Bitcoin — worth $2.3 billion at current prices — in inflows over the last four days alone. Comparatively, the funds took 20 days of trading to gather 42,000 in Bitcoin inflows.
It comes as four spot Bitcoin ETFs — excluding Grasyscale — have now taken their place in the “billionaire club,” with the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF becoming the latest to clear the milestone on Feb. 14.
Nate Geraci, the president of the ETF store, described the performance of Bitwise as the “most impressive,” adding that it was the only crypto-native investment fund among the top providers.
Bitwise was beaten to billion-dollar status by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust and Cathie Wood’s Ark 21Shares Bitcoin Trust.
The remaining ETFs, including Invesco, VanEck, Valkyrie, and Franklin Templeton, are further off, as they have yet to breach $500 million in assets under management (AUM).
WisdomTree’s Bitcoin Trust has been struggling to gain meaningful inflows, currently standing last among the Bitcoin ETFs, with just $23 million in AUM, per Apollo data.
Notably, on Feb. 13, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust became the first Bitcoin ETF to surpass $5 billion in assets under management, holding a total of 105,280 BTC at the time of writing.
The bullishness around spot Bitcoin ETF flows has been viewed by many market participants as a key driving force behind Bitcoin’s recent rally, which saw its price breach $50,000 on Feb. 12.
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Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Reaches Highest Level in Over 2 Years, Tops $21 Billion
The notional open interest, which represents the dollar value locked in active Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts, has surged to its highest level in more than two years.
According to data by CoinGlass, the open interest in both perpetuals and standard futures has surpassed $21 billion, a level last seen in November 2021 when the leading cryptocurrency reached its all-time high of around $70,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $49,700, almost flat over the past day.
Year-to-date (YTD), Bitcoin futures open interest has surged by 22%, coming close to the previous record of $24 billion observed in mid-November 2021.
Rise in Open Interest Suggests Renewed Interest in Futures
The rise in open interest indicates a renewed interest in leveraged products like futures and confirms the current bullish sentiment in the market.
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable 28% rally in just over three weeks, largely driven by significant inflows into newly launched spot ETFs in the United States.
It’s important to note that leverage amplifies both profits and losses, making a notable increase in futures open interest a potential indicator of heightened price volatility.
However, despite the surge in open interest, the overall leverage in the market remains relatively low.
This suggests a lower likelihood of sudden liquidations of long (buy) positions, which could trigger a significant price crash.
Liquidations occur when exchanges forcefully close bullish or bearish positions due to a margin shortage, and such events often introduce substantial volatility into the market.
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio has slightly increased from 0.18 to 0.20.
However, these levels are far from the levels observed in August of the previous year.
Additionally, the current futures open interest in BTC terms, which removes the price effect, is at 430,500, still considerably lower than the peak of 660,000 reached in October 2022, as reported by CoinGlass.
Analysts Expect Bitcoin to Reach $70,000 This Year
Analysts at investment firm Bernstein expect Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory, surpassing its previous all-time high of $69,000 and potentially reaching $70,000 this year.
As reported, the analysts have expressed confidence in the cryptocurrency’s risk-reward profile, stating that no significant challenges are anticipated to impede its ascent.
In a note to investors, analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra highlighted the recent launch of 10 Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which briefly pushed Bitcoin to $49,000.
Likewise, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of hedge fund SkyBridge, has suggested that the price of Bitcoin could potentially reach $170,000 in the coming year.
Scaramucci’s prediction is based on two key factors, including the growing demand for newly listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving event scheduled for April.
He explained that if Bitcoin were to maintain its current price of around $45,000 at the time of the halving, it could see a remarkable surge to $170,000 by mid-to late 2025.
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Bitcoin OG who called 2021 all-time high sees $600K BTC price by 2026
Bitcoin will see a minimum $200,000 in the coming years and could pass half a million dollars, a popular analyst predicts.
In his latest update on long-term BTC price action, advisor and early Bitcoin evangelist Tuur Demeester put BTC/USD at up to $600,000 by 2026.
Demeester: Bitcoin will react to "trillions" of dollars in bailouts
Bitcoin hitting $50,000 this week comes amid renewed belief in higher levels to come.
Bullish BTC price arguments focus on the cathartic effect of both April’s block subsidy halving and the newly-launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
While the former reduces the emission of new Bitcoin, the latter is already exerting additional pressure on the available supply.
For Demeester, however, it is macroeconomic factors on the radar.
“In '21 bitcoin topped at $69k,” he summarized.
“I'm targeting $200-$600k by 2026. Fueled by $ trillions in global bailouts/stimulus.”
A series of subsequent comments on X (formerly Twitter) referenced systemic problems in the U.S. banking system and governments’ future obligation to supply liquidity to halt their decline.
This reflects a process that is already ongoing, with Cointelegraph reporting on potential risk-asset price volatility hitting in March as a result.
Asked where he expected Bitcoin to hit its next multi-year peak, Demeester added that anywhere from 2025 onward is possible.
On the topic of mainstream interest — so far lacking despite Bitcoin being up nearly $12,000 in under a month — he argued that $50,000 represents a watershed.
“I expect for retail to start waking up soon,” he wrote.
“Remember, there is no fever like bitcoin fever.”
Demeester is well known for his decade-long contributions to the Bitcoin sphere. In 2019 and 2020, meanwhile, he correctly predicted the most recent BTC price all-time high lying between $50,000 and $100,000.
Notorious trader sees "entire market" going lower
Not everyone believes that the future is bright for Bitcoin and altcoins.
As reported, even last month, bets on a long-term market reversal were building, including a drop to $30,000.
One bearish voice continues to stand out. In his latest analysis shared with Telegram channel subscribers, popular trader Il Capo of Crypto warned that the $50,000 mark represented a turning point of a different kind.
“I was bullish short-term from $40k because there were possibilities of reaching $50k. It just got hit. Now what?” he queried.
“I'm expecting a rejection of BTC from the $50k level while alts keep pumping more, forming a divergence. After that, the entire market should reverse.”
For most of the past year, Il Capo of Crypto has maintained a BTC price target of just $12,000.
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Bitcoin ETFs hit $10B milestone just one month after approval
The recently launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) completed their first 20 trading sessions hitting the $10 billion milestone in assets under management (AUM).
According to data from BitMEX Research, net flows for the nine ETFs reached $2.7 billion on Jan. 9, led by BlackRock's IBIT fund, which currently holds Bitcoin worth $4 billion. The second position is claimed by Fidelity’s FBTC, with over $3.4 billion in BTC under management.
ARK 21Shares’ fund also reached the billion-dollar milestone, holding about $1 billion worth of Bitcoin in its portfolio. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC outflows amounted to $6.3 billion over the past 30 days. The fund recorded $51.8 million in outflows on Feb. 9, its smallest daily volume of capital withdrawals since conversion.
“I thought the Nine would get a bit weaker as GBTC outflows subsided but they’re getting stronger," noted Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas on X (formerly Twitter).
Over the next few months, Bitcoin ETF flows are expected to increase as trading firms complete their due diligence on the investment vehicles.
Bitcoin’s price consolidated above technical support in January, “including its 200-day moving average ($29,902) and on-chain mean ($33,487)", according to a recent analysis from ARK Invest. Over the month, the cryptocurrency price rose 0.6% to $42,585.
ARK Invest’s bullish view is that Bitcoin is replacing gold as a risk-off asset. “Bitcoin’s price relative to that of gold has increased twenty-fold in the last 7 years. In January 2024, Bitcoin could buy ~20 troy oz of gold, compared to 1 troy oz in April 2017,” notes the analysis. “We believe this trend should continue as Bitcoin increases its role in financial markets.”
Considering the macroeconomic environment, the asset manager predicts that “as inflation cools and real rates rise, Bitcoin should remain antifragile as banks continue to lose deposits.”
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Bitcoin ETF applications from ARK 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, VanEck, WisdomTree, Fidelity, Valkyrie, BlackRock, and Grayscale on Jan. 10, more than a decade after Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss applied to launch the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust in 2013.
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UN Expert Panel Investigate $3B Worth North Korean Crypto Cyberattacks: Report
An independent United Nations jury of sanctions monitors is conducting a probe into North Korea’s involvement in $3 billion worth cyberattacks on crypto firms.
According to an unpublished UN report reviewed by Reuters, the monitors accused the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) for flouting Security Council sanctions.
They are investigating several suspected cyberattacks worth $3 billion on crypto firms, which DPRK used to develop nuclear weapons program.
“The panel is investigating 58 suspected DPRK cyberattacks on cryptocurrency-related companies between 2017 and 2023, valued at approximately $3 billion, which reportedly help fund DPRK’s WMD development.”
North Korean Hackers Stole Millions in Crypto
Per a recent report by TRM Labs, North Korea-linked hackers stole $200 million worth cryptos from January to Aug. 2023. This accounted for over 20% of all stolen crypto last year, the blockchain intelligent firm added.
Further, this has resulted in funding the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The TRM report sees the move as North Korea’s pivot from “traditional revenue-generating activities.”
Nick Carlsen, intelligence analyst at TRM Labs stressed that DPRK is looking for every dollar they can. “And this is just obviously a much more efficient way for North Korea to make money.”
The UN has slapped DPRK with multiple sanctions since the country’s first nuclear test in 2006. The sanctions include ban on financial services, minerals and metals, limiting North Korea’s access to sources of funding.
Additionally, blockchain analytics company Chainalysis’ data revealed that 2022 was the biggest year ever for crypto hacking.
A whopping $3.8 billion was stolen from crypto businesses, primarily by North Korea-linked attackers, said Chainalysis. Another research early this year noted that cyber-espionage groups are using various tactics to acquire large amounts of crypto assets.
Reuters noted that the UN report will be released later this month or by early next month, according to diplomats. The report noted that the panel investigated on several North Korean nationals that are working overseas.
“They also said North Korea continues to access the international financial system and engage in illicit financial operations,” which are against the UN Security Council resolutions, it added.
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Bitcoin price passes $46K after S&P 500 reaches historic highs
Bitcoin took aim at January highs on Feb. 9 as bulls beat out overhead resistance.
Data captured a fresh BTC price uptick to $46,365 on Bitstamp.
Up over 2% since the daily close, BTC/USD dealt with increasing sell-side liquidity as it returned to levels not seen since the launch of the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These formed a key argument supporting BTC price upside, with net inflows for nine consecutive days and outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) staying lower.
Bitcoin’s move also came in tandem with a historic one for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 hit 5,000 points on the day — the first trip to the significant psychological level ever.
“Since the October 27th low, the S&P 500 is now up ~900 points,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter).
“This means that the S&P 500 has added nearly $8.5 TRILLION in market cap in just over 3 months. Truly a historic run for stocks.”
In its latest market update on Feb. 8, trading firm QCP Capital suggested that the uptrend on both stocks and crypto could well continue to play out.
“It is likely that any dip in equities will continue to be bought as underallocated investors chase returns,” it reasoned.
“On the back of this bullish sentiment, BTC and ETH are likely to follow, coupled with the BTC halving and ETH spot ETF narratives.”
BTC price range top on horizon
Looking to the immediate future, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading platform Material Indicators, noted the need to avoid wicks below the 50-day simple moving average, currently at just over $43,000.
“BTCUSD 40K horizontal support held on a weekly closing basis,” popular trader Aksel Kibar wrote in his own analysis of higher timeframes.
“Trend channel is intact. Upper boundary acts as resistance around 48-49K.”
Kibar touched on the still-persisting BTC price range now in place for more than 150 days, with January’s post-ETF highs as its ceiling.
As reported, various theories have recently emerged as to how this may fall into April’s block subsidy halving.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as Bulls Target $47,000 Level – Time to Buy?
The quest for a robust Bitcoin price prediction intensifies as market bulls eye the $47,000 threshold. Currently, Bitcoinhovers around $44,500, climbing by 0.50% on February 8, signaling a potential pivot in investor sentiment.
This resurgence follows Bitcoin’s halt of a downward spiral, with its value finding support at approximately $43,000. The surge is buoyed by heightened network activity and the burgeoning utility of BRC 20 tokens, which together are catalyzing a price ascent.
Despite the backdrop of macroeconomic headwinds, such as elevated US Treasury yields and cautious Federal Reserve rate cut dialogues, the cryptocurrency’s recovery hints at a growing investor confidence, possibly stirred by endorsements of Bitcoin’s intrinsic value as ‘digital gold’.
Bitcoin Price Fluctuations: ETF Approvals & Miner Sales Effects
Bitcoin’s recovery has been tepid, particularly after the approval of 11 Bitcoin ETFs, which dampened optimism. Investor sentiment is mixed as the 2024 halving event approaches—traditionally a bullish catalyst, yet current wallet trends from Santiment, a blockchain analytics firm, suggest a decline in Bitcoin holdings, indicating investor caution or a shift in investment strategies.
In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a surge in capital, with a notable $68 million influx on February 5. Conversely, increased Bitcoin sales by miners, possibly to secure profits before the halving, have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s price plateau around $44,500.
Microstrategy’s Bitcoin Acquisition: Impact on BTC Market Value
Microstrategy has intensified its Bitcoin portfolio with a recent $37 million investment, matching its profits. Founder Michael Saylor disclosed the acquisition of 850 Bitcoin in January, bringing the company’s holdings to a staggering 190,000 Bitcoin—nearly 1% of the total Bitcoin supply, capped at about 19.6 million.
Microstrategy’s persistent investment over the last year underscores its commitment to Bitcoin.
Such significant and consistent buying by Microstrategy may bolster Bitcoin’s market value, stimulating demand and exemplifying institutional trust in the digital asset.
Robert Kiyosaki’s Bitcoin Advocacy: Potential Effects on BTC Pricing
Renowned ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ author Robert Kiyosaki recently expressed his preference for Bitcoin over traditional assets like gold and silver in a discussion with Anthony Pompliano. Highlighting Bitcoin’s cost efficiency and ease of transfer compared to physical commodities, Kiyosaki emphasized Bitcoin’s advantages in terms of speed, weightlessness, and security costs.
His advocacy positions Bitcoin as a modern-day digital gold, potentially revolutionizing monetary transactions.
Kiyosaki’s backing, emphasizing Bitcoin’s economic benefits and its digital gold status, may bolster investor confidence. This endorsement could drive increased Bitcoin purchases, potentially elevating its market price.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
On February 8th, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) exhibits a modest ascent, trading at $44,574, marking a 0.50% increase within the four-hour chart window. Currently, Bitcoin finds itself just above the pivot point of $43,603. Resistance looms overhead at $44,611, $45,618, and a more substantial barrier at $46,801.
Support, however, firms up at $41,827, with additional safety nets at $40,563 and $39,006.
The RSI hovers at an elevated 72, hinting at potential overbought conditions. Bitcoin recently breached a lateral channel, suggesting a bullish shift with the potential to test the resistance at $43,600. The 50-Day EMA at $42,985 further corroborates the bullish trend, provided Bitcoin sustains above the pivot line.
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Thailand Pushes Towards Digital Asset Hub with Introduction of VAT-Free Crypto Trading
In a move to position Thailand as a leading digital asset hub, the country’s Finance Ministry has announced the exemption of value-added tax (VAT) on digital asset trading.
The decision aims to promote digital assets as a new alternative tool for fundraising and drive the growth of the digital asset industry in Thailand, according to a recent report by Bangkok Post.
Paopoom Rojanasakul, the secretary to the finance minister, told the media about the ministry’s vision to leverage digital assets and their potential to fuel the country’s digital economy.
Thailand Suspends 7% VAT Requirement
By easing tax rules, the ministry has suspended the requirement to pay 7% VAT on income derived from cryptocurrency and digital token trading.
This VAT exemption, effective since January 1, 2024, has no expiration date, providing a long-term incentive for investors and traders in the digital asset space.
It’s worth noting that the transfer of digital investment tokens to a third party has remained exempt from VAT since May 14, 2023.
This exemption, previously limited to authorized digital asset exchanges, has now been extended to brokers and dealers under the supervision of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
To solidify Thailand’s position as a digital asset hub, the Finance Ministry and SEC are in the process of amending the 2019 Securities and Exchange Act.
These amendments will enable digital investment tokens to resemble securities, fostering a more regulated and secure environment for investors.
Thailand has emerged as one of the top jurisdictions for offshore digital asset investors, and these new tax policies are expected to provide a significant boost to the country’s digital asset market.
However, amidst this drive for development, Paopoom emphasized the need for the government to consider the stability of the financial system.
While harnessing the potential of digital assets, it is crucial to ensure a secure and resilient financial ecosystem.
Thai SEC Eases Crypto Investing Restrictions
The SEC of Thailand has updated the criteria for investing in digital tokens, easing some restrictions.
In a recent meeting, the SEC Committee approved the principles for improving investment criteria and related criteria for digital asset business operations, aiming to establish effective investor protection mechanisms while considering the risks associated with digital assets.
For one, the commission has lifted investment restrictions previously imposed on retail investors for digital tokens backed by real estate or generating real estate income streams (real estate-backed ICOs) and digital tokens with infrastructure operations or revenue streams (infra-backed ICOs).
Previously, retail investors were limited to investing a maximum of 300,000 baht per offering.
The SEC also reviewed the criteria for establishing custodial wallet provider businesses, enabling them to offer services to digital asset business operators.
Nevertheless, the SEC of Thailand has made it clear that it will not allow the trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the country.
The move came despite the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which marks a significant shift in attitude after years of reluctance due to various risks associated with cryptocurrencies.
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Bitcoin ETFs Trigger Massive Miner Outflows, Over $1 Billion Moved to Exchanges
Bitcoin miners reportedly sell their asset reserves or leverage them to upgrade their capacity as inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges continue.
A new report from Bitfinex Alpha Market shows Bitcoin ETF approvals by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) impacted miners’ reserves.
According to the report, miners’ asset reserves have plunged to 1.826 million, marking the lowest point since June 2021 as miners hoarded parts of profits during the bear season 2022.
On Jan 12, a day after the approval of ETFs, $1 billion worth of miner BTC was moved to exchanges, setting a six-year high in miner outflows according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
This occurred as the price of Bitcoin declined close to 9% after the approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Though the reverse was expected, multiple analysts commented on the huge inflows in Q4 2023 as reasons for a slight decline upon approval. However, huge weekly inflowshave been seen around the market leader on the institutional front.
Net Bitcoin Outflows Flagged by Analysts
On Feb 1, Bitfinex analysts noted a massive 13,500 BTC leaving miner wallets to exchanges, setting another record as the highest negative outflow.
However, the next 24 hours saw an inflow of approximately 10,000 BTC, bringing the net outflow to 3,500 BTC and 10,200 BTC since the approval.
The inflows recorded afterward can be linked to miners rebalancing their positions ahead of key events. The analysts point toward operational liquidity, strategic adjustments, and the price surge of 2023 as reasons for the net outflows.
During the bear cycle, miners suffered huge losses, leading to outright selling mining equipment, pivoting to other fields, and leveraging reserves to stay afloat.
However institutional entry recorded in 2023 sparked a price action in favour of miners, wiping out losses as they looked towards expansion.
“This substantial transfer of BTC from miners to exchanges reflects the miners’ response to market conditions and potentially their need to liquidate holdings for operational expenses of risk management.”
The flow of miners’ Bitcoin reserves to exchanges is an important metric as it shows the amount of BTC accumulated by miners over a certain period. It also shows the current market stance as outflows to exchanges usually represent an intention to sell.
Halving Influences Miners’ Decisions
The upcoming Bitcoin halving is a factor affecting the recent offloading of assets to exchanges with miners raising capital to expand their capacity and machinery.
The halving will see rewards slashed by 50% spurring Bitcoin miners to look for more effective rigs.
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Grayscale CEO urges regulators to approve listed options for spot Bitcoin ETFs
In an X post on Feb. 5, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein advocated for regulators to approve exchange-listed options for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He argued that options are good for investors as they support “price discovery and can help investors better navigate market conditions or achieve desired outcomes, such as generating income.”
An exchange-traded option is a standardized contract that can be used to buy (using a call option) or sell (using a put option) a certain quantity of a particular financial asset at a predefined price (the strike price) on or before a specified date. With options trading, investors can make predictions about the future movement of particular stocks or bonds and the stock market as a whole. Under options contracts, traders have the choice — but not the obligation — to purchase or sell an underlying asset by a specified date at a predetermined price.
These options are traded on exchanges like the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) and are regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Clearinghouses like the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) provide guarantees for the exchanges.
Sonnenshein noted that when the SEC approved the first Bitcoin futures ETF in October 2021, the listed options for the ETF were available for trading from the very next day due to automatic effectiveness, which allowed them to rely on existing rules.
However, a similar rule is not applicable for commodity-based ETFs, such as the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, as these have to go through a potentially lengthy review akin to the 19b-4 process for spot Bitcoin ETFs themselves.
The Grayscale CEO called for equal treatment of similar products, citing the example of spot and futures BTC-based ETFs.
Sonnenshein added that the New York Stock Exchange and other national exchanges have recently filed Forms 19b-4 to amend the listing standards to permit listed options on commodity-based ETFs, including spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The SEC is currently reviewing the applications for listed options on spot BTC ETFs and has opened comments for BlackRock’s proposed options with Cboe. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggested the SEC could make the decision as early as Feb. 15 or, at the latest, by September 2024.
The Grayscale CEO concluded his post by advocating for spot Bitcoin ETFs and the crypto asset class to be treated fairly.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Nears $42,500 Amid Bukele Win and Soaring ETF Interest
During the Asian trading session, Bitcoin’s latest price prediction takes into account a modest retreat to $42,585, marking a slight downturn of over 1%.
This movement coincides with significant developments in the sector: President Nayib Bukele’s electoral success in El Salvador, a nation pioneering Bitcoin as legal tender, and the growing institutional embrace, as evidenced by BlackRock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETFs achieving top 10 status in January inflows.
Furthermore, the market is witnessing a substantial shift with the introduction of nine new ETFs, which have effectively sequestered 177,949 Bitcoin, tightening the currency’s availability post-GBTC outflows.
Bukele Secures Presidential Win
Concerns about constitutional changes and the deterioration of democracy are raised by President Nayib Bukele’s apparent grip over the parliamentary assembly and his self-proclaimed landslide victory in El Salvador’s national elections.
Bukele, well-known for his anti-gang policies and support of Bitcoin, has the potential to exercise unheard-of authority and influence El Salvador’s political climate.
Despite opposition from rights groups and economic difficulties, his popularity with voters could strengthen his hold on power.
The announcement may or may not affect Bitcoin prices; Bukele’s advocacy of the cryptocurrency first sparked acceptance but prompted condemnation from the IMF.
The way Bukele’s administration handles foreign policy and economic issues could have an impact on investor confidence and Bitcoin prices in the future.
Bitcoin ETFs Gain Top Flow Ranks
Among all ETFs by greatest flows in January, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF came in eighth and tenth, respectively, with an aggregate of about $4.8 billion.
According to Morningstar, the net flows of BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC were $2.6 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. Interestingly, with $5.7 billion in withdrawals, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw the second-highest outflows.
The data indicates that the ETFs offered by BlackRock and Fidelity are leading the way in the developing Bitcoin fund market, with roughly $715 million in positive inflows over the course of six days.
Positive effects on BTC prices could result from growing institutional confidence and interest in investment products related to Bitcoin, which could spur more market activity and price growth.
ETFs Lock Away Significant Bitcoin Supply
According to recent reports, after their January 11 launch, a number of recently established spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown their Bitcoin holdings.
As of right present, Fidelity’s FBTC is holding 60,054.87 BTC (estimated at $2.58 billion), while BlackRock’s IBIT is holding 72,466.64 BTC (worth $3.12 billion). The nine ETFs collectively oversee 177,949.11 BTC, or $7.62 billion.
Despite the huge holdings these ETFs have amassed, Grayscale’s GBTC ETF continues to own the most, with 478,337.43 BTC.
The market has seen a withdrawal of 39,206.55 BTC ($1.68 billion) as a result of the introduction of these ETFs.
Because of the increased institutional interest and investment through these recently founded funds, there may be a favorable impact on BTC prices, which might lead to upward price pressure.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) holds just above pivot point of $42,208, suggesting a tenuous hold in bullish territory.
Immediate resistance is at $42,819, with subsequent hurdles at $43,704 and $44,727, potentially capping rallies.
Support is firmer at lower levels, with $41,444 providing the first buffer, followed by $40,532 and $39,541, which could arrest further declines.
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