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How low can the Bitcoin price go?
Bitcoin price is down by roughly $4,000 since the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the U.S., signaling a growing “sell-the-news” sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, technical chart patterns hint at the possibility of a continued sell-off in the coming days or weeks.
Bitcoin’s maximum pain target is $34,850
As seen on the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price trajectory shows consolidation within a bullish channel.
The 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) has provided support near $42,120, with prices oscillating above it as of Jan. 14. However, the relative strength Index (RSI) hovers near the mid-line, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum.
In addition, the RSI has recently formed lower highs as opposed to Bitcoin's higher highs, a sign of growing bearish divergence.
Therefore, if the BTC price breaks below the 50-day EMA, it could seek the next support near the bullish channel’s lower trendline. This trendline coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $34,850, a low not seen since the Q4, 2023-consolidation phase.
Bankers will crash Bitcoin to $25,000–$30,000
However, market commentators such as Crypto Poseidonn see a Bitcoin price crash toward the $25,000–$30,000 range, noting that this is where most recent buyers accumulated BTC.
In the first scenario, investors that have acquired Bitcoin between $25,000 and $30,000 on ETF approval expectations will not profit much because bankers will likely not pay them a substantial premium over these prices.
Therefore, as Bitcoin approaches $30,000, the bankers may buy from investors, establishing a new market bottom.
However, the market may correct below $25,000 in the second scenario, allowing new institutional investors to acquire even more BTC with leverage.
Another analyst, Rhaonnor, argues that the market has already priced in the Bitcoin ETF rally, suggesting that the range between $24,000 and $32,000 should hold.
However, not everyone agrees as trader il Capo of Crypto expects this level to possibly crack before the ultimate price target of $12,000.
“Interest rates were increasing during 2004-2007 and when the FED pivoted, the market started dropping to new lows,” the trader explained his reasoning on X last month. “Now we are in a similar situation."
Can Bitcoin resume its upward trajector?
Bitcoin’s ability to hold its prices above the 50-day EMA will determine whether more upside is to come in the short term.
BTC price could further climb toward $50,000 or $60,000 in the coming weeks, as predicted by Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer at Yield App, and Christos Makridis, the founder/CEO of Dynamic AI. He added:
We will see a minor pullback, but it’ll be nothing to write home about. It may take a little while for it to surpass the $50,000 threshold. But by June, the halving will be out of the way, and the price should be higher.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s prevailing bull pennant pattern indicates a possible price rally toward the $50,000–60,000 range, as shown below.
Bull pennants are bullish continuation patterns that get resolved after the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the previous uptrend’s height.
The pattern shows that the BTC price can reach $56,200 by March 2024. Nonetheless, a break below the pennant’s lower trendline would bring the bearish targets mentioned above.
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Gold on steroids? Bitcoin, gold correlation surges in 2023 — Fidelity
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased over 2023, as indicated by a recent report from asset manager Fidelity.
According to Fidelity’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price decoupled from its previously inverse relationship with interest rates and even rallied despite global rates increasing across the world — high interest rates tend to lower the demand for risk assets. Over the past twelve months, gold prices have followed the same pattern:
"But this past year, we saw a complete decoupling of this relationship as real rates continued to rise (with inflation subsiding and treasury yields screaming higher at one of the fastest paces in history), with bitcoin not only holding steady, but then rallying! Could this be due to an idiosyncratic event, such as the anticipation of a spot ETP? Perhaps. But we do not think so, because gold has also been showing similar behaviors recently."
In 2023, gold experienced significant fluctuations, but overall showed strong performance against a number of currencies. Over the year, gold’s performance in U.S. dollars grew to 14.6%, with notable variations among different currency pairs. The asset performance was primarily driven by geopolitical risks and central banks’ demand. Bitcoin, meanwhile, gained 156% in 2023.
“Historically, bitcoin has been relatively noncorrelated to gold over the longer term, but recently has shown an increase in correlation as both have rallied,” noted Fidelity.
The investment company speculated on the reasons for the increased correlation between the commodities, stating that investors might be watching the United States' growing fiscal deficit or even anticipating a change in interest rates.
“We can only speculate as to what these real asset markets may be saying, but one possible explanation is that both Bitcoin and gold are saying that the bond market may be wrong or that both assets are sniffing something else out, such as the United States’ increasingly large and structural fiscal deficits. Perhaps the bitcoin market may be anticipating more debt monetization by the Federal Reserve in the future, or anticipating rate cuts, given that our research shows that Bitcoin’s price is highly correlated not to consumer price inflation, but rather inflation in the money supply itself and various liquidity metrics.”
Fidelity’s analysis also points to a tighter supply environment for Bitcoin, as the amount of long-term holders has reached another all-time high of 70%. “It appears to us that the last few years of the bear market have forged some very strong hands in terms of holding period. Even in the face of a 160%+ rally in Bitcoin (at the time of writing in mid-December), we have not observed these long-term and illiquid coins moving in response to the price to take profit.”
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Cboe approves listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs from multiple asset managers
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission may be one step closer to full approval of listing shares of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) after the Cboe BZX Exchange gave notice of approved securities listings from several asset managers.
In Jan. 10 letters filed with the SEC, Cboe said it had approved spot BTC ETF offerings from ARK 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, Fidelity, VanEck, WisdomTree and Franklin Templeton. The deadline for final approval or denial of the spot Bitcoin ETF from ARK 21Shares is Jan. 10, leading to speculation that the SEC may approve multiple offerings from asset managers simultaneously.
“In order to facilitate timely listing, the Exchange requests acceleration of registration of these securities under Rule 12d1-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended,” said the Cboe.
According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the Cboe filings were the “last step” before the S-1 asset manager filings with the SEC were fully approved. Should the regulator approve a spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan. 10, some experts expect the investment vehicles to be open to trading as early as Jan. 11.
On Jan. 9, amid speculation the SEC would soon be deciding on a spot Bitcoin ETF, the commission’s official X (formerly Twitter) account posted an announcement for full approval. Within minutes, SEC chair Gary Gensler claimed that the accounthad been “compromised” and it was not announcing a decision on the investment vehicle.
The SEC tweet has led to speculation across the space as to whether it was an official announcement released prematurely by a hacker or entirely made up to manipulate the crypto market. The X safety team announced on Jan. 9 that the SEC did not have two-factor authentication enabled for its account. Several U.S. lawmakers have also called on the commission to report on the incident.
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Elon Musk won’t be the richest person if Bitcoin goes above $1M
Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto is assumed to hold around 1.1 million BTC, worth $46 billion today. This means the world’s richest person and first trillionaire might not be Elon Musk if Bitcoin ever reaches the high six-figure range.
Meanwhile, other prominent Bitcoin holders have also made billions from the rise in the BTC price over the past 15 years. One of the most notable examples is MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who is up a whopping $2.6 billion on his Bitcoin investment.
Can a Bitcoin billionaire dethrone Elon Musk?
So, how high would the BTC price be for a Bitcoin billionaire such as Microstrategy CEO, Michael Saylor, to become the world's richest person?
Several factors must be considered to explore the possibility of Michael Saylor overtaking Elon Musk as the wealthiest person in the world with Bitcoin prices rising. Namely, Saylor’s total Bitcoin holdings and Musk’s net worth, and exclude his own possbile Bitcoin and (likely) Dogecoin stacks for this theoretical exercise.
Latest data shows that Michael Saylor’s total Bitcoin holdings amount to 206,882 BTC (~$9 billion), including MicroStrategy’s 189,150 BTC and his own stash of 17,732 BTC, according to Forbes. Elon Musk’s net worth, on the other hand, is approximately $219 billion.
To calculate the Bitcoin price necessary for Saylor’s net worth to surpass Musk’s, we need to find the price per Bitcoin that would value Saylor’s holdings past $219 billion.
Let's break down the calculation:
Michael Saylor’s personal Bitcoin holdings: 17,732 BTC
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings: 189,150 BTC
Total Bitcoin holdings: 17,732 BTC (personal) + 189,150 (company) = 206,882 BTC (~$9B)
Elon Musk’s net worth: ~$219B
We can now calculate the required price of Bitcoin for this scenario.
Seven-figure Bitcoin price
To surpass Elon Musk’s net worth of approximately $219 billion, the price of a single Bitcoin would need to reach approximately $1,054,000.
This is a substantial 24x increase from current Bitcoin prices but it would nevertheless align with numerous price predictions. At the same time, this reflects the remaining big gap in net worth between the two entrepreneurs.
It’s important to note that this scenario is hypothetical and depends on various factors, including Bitcoin’s market dynamics, Elon Musk’s fluctuating net worth (largely tied to his holdings in companies like Tesla and SpaceX), and Michael Saylor maintaining his Bitcoin holdings.
Additionally, such a dramatic rise in Bitcoin’s price would likely have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency market and global financial systems.
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Bitcoin bull market metrics 'almost reset' as BTC price hovers at $43K
Bitcoin stayed lower into Jan. 4 as markets emerged from a 9% BTC price crash.
Analyst sees Bitcoin ETF decision "next week"
Data showed BTC/USD circling the area around $43,000 before the Wall Street open.
Still down $3,000 from the week’s top, the largest cryptocurrency opted to tread water as mysteries continued over the fate and timing of the United States’ first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The latest drop had accompanied an industry claim that U.S. regulators would reject the latest round of spot ETF applications, continuing a years-long struggle to launch them.
No specific evidence was provided, however, and commentators quickly brushed off the idea that the decision had already become known.
Subsequent filings by would-be ETF providers further stoked intrigue. These included a securities registration by Fidelity Investments, which soon garnered claims that an approval had arrived.
Reacting, however, James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, again dismissed the documents as providing proof of an ETF greenlight.
“I'm still looking towards next week,” part of comments on X (formerly Twitter) stated.
RSI among indicators lining up rebound
Bitcoin markets thus faced little by way of coercive forces either up or down.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades eyed a return to a familiar BTC price range from December, telling X subscribers that they should “not expect too much” on short timeframes.
Fellow trader Jelle was more optimistic, highlighting key levels which should soon come into play.
In an X post on the day, referenced both the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicators being “almost fully reset” — a prerequisite which Cointelegraph reported on last week.
The day prior, Jelle described current prices as the “best buying opportunity in a long time” for both Bitcoin and altcoins.
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Bitcoin price breaks above $45K, days ahead of potential ETF approval
The price of Bitcoin has broken through $45,000 for the first time in nearly two years as the market prepares for a widely expected approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Bitcoin climbed rapidly from a price of $42,000 on Jan. 1, surging more than 6% in the last 24 hours and 170% over the last year, per CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin is trading higher than any price reached in 2023 and marks a significant new yearly high for the asset just two days into 2024.
Bitcoin's price performance comes as the market gears up for the SEC to approve one or several of the 14 outstanding applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF product, currently pending a decision with the regulator.
The last time Bitcoin traded above $45,000 was nearly 20 months ago on April 5, 2022, when Bitcoin closed the day at $45,241 before descending into an enduring bear market that saw Bitcoin fall as low as $15,600, per TradingView data.
Market commentators remain divided over the potential impact an ETF approval will have on the price of Bitcoin in the short term.
Analysts from crypto options trading platform Greeks.live claim that Bitcoin won't experience a significant rally on the day of an approval, due to dwindling implied volatility on Bitcoin options.
Traders on X are of a different mind, with Scott Melkor telling his 925,000 followers that Bitcoin is currently forming a "bull penant" following a month of consolidation at prices around the $40,000 mark.
Melkor predicts that Bitcoin could shoot as high as $54,000 in the days following the potential approval from the SEC.
Meanwhile, VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs predicts the early days of a spot Bitcoin ETF will be considered a "let down" by wider market standards, however ultimately believes the products will attract trillions of dollars worth of inflows over the next few years.
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Judge denies Changpeng Zhao’s 2nd attempt to travel to UAE
Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao will still not be allowed to leave the United States ahead of his sentencing hearing following an order from a federal judge.
In a Dec. 29 ruling as part of a hearing in U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington in Seattle, Judge Richard Jones denied a motion from CZ requesting permission to travel outside the country. The reasons for the second motion were unavailable to the public, having been sealed by the court, but CZ’s legal team suggested it involved “medical information regarding Mr. Zhao’s child.”
On Dec. 7, Judge Jones ordered Zhao to remain in the United States following a motion requesting permission to travel. The judge suggested CZ could be a flight risk if allowed to travel to his home in Dubai, where his family lives.
CZ pleaded guilty to one felony count as part of a $4.3 billion deal between the former CEO, Binance, and U.S. authorities. He is expected to be sentenced in February, when he could face up to 18 months in prison.
According to the order, CZ will remain free on a $175 million bond but is restricted from traveling outside the United States. Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky — arrested in July for charges related to allegedly misleading and defrauding users — was free on a $40 million bond.
Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was initially allowed to remain in his parents’ California home following his extradition to the U.S. in 2022. However, a judge ordered him remanded following allegations of witness intimidation.
It’s unclear what medical information Zhao’s lawyers provided to the court under seal. He reportedly has three children with former talk show host and Binance co-founder Yi He.
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South Korean Police Shut Down ‘Gangsters’ $32m Crypto Scam Ring’
South Korean police say they have swooped on a $32 million chat app-based crypto scam ring that they say was being run by a network of “gangsters.”
Per Chosun Ilbo, Busan Metropolitan Police, the group comprised nine groups of “violent gangsters” who operated bogus “crypto reading room” sites on chat app platforms.
Officers said they had arrested eight individuals suspected of operating the “reading rooms,” as well as 79 “accomplices.”
Police said that the gang convinced 572 people “nationwide” to part with their money.
A police spokesperson said the group had “opened and operated” bogus online crypto sites.
Members then allegedly “recruited investors, managed bank accounts, and laundered money.”
Police said the gangs’ members were all young; in the “millennial and Gen Z” age groups.
In a series of nationwide raids, officers seized assets including motor vehicles, cash, and other items worth a combined $1.9 million.
Scammers Preying on South Korean Chat App Users?
Crypto-themed “reading rooms” are commonplace in South Korea, particularly on platforms such as KakaoTalk.
Many of these group chats and channels are above-board, comprising bona fide crypto traders.
But others appear to have become a breeding ground for opportunistic crypto scammers.
Some promote dubious-looking crypto mining “investment” programs that appear to promise “guaranteed profits.”
According to the police, the “gangsters” launched their operations in February 2022, posing variously as “investment experts.”
Officers said they “falsely claimed” that investors would “earn big profits by investing in crypto, unlisted stocks, gold, and overseas futures.”
The gang allegedly told potential victims that their stakes were “guaranteed.” They also allegedly said that profits would be forthcoming.
Officers said that they believed the gangsters had paid darkweb vendors to provide them with some would-be victims’ data.
This helped them target victims with personalized text messages and emails, police spokespeople explained.
Elsewhere in the nation, the trial of a suspected altcoin fraudster began earlier this month in Gwangju.
Prosecutors have accused an individual of duping over a dozen investors out of $2.1 million.
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Argentines will be given a chance to ‘regularise’ undeclared crypto
The newly formed government of Argentina, under the authority of a self-proclaimed libertarian, Javier Milei, says it will ease the path to legalization of crypto holdings even if they’re overdue on tax declarations.
On Dec. 27, the Law of Bases and Starting Points for the Freedom of Argentines was introduced to the Argentine Congress. The 351-page bill contains several reforms in tax, labor, criminal, energy and electoral matters, kickstarting Milei’s controversial reformist agenda.
The bill contains some mentions of crypto regarding tax-paying procedures. In a section dedicated to the so-called “asset regularisation scheme,” the document lists the types of assets a taxpayer may legalize without providing any “additional documentation” on their origin.
All the taxpayer would have to pay in the framework of such a regularisation scheme is a flat tax on assets: 5% if he declares holdings by the end of March 2024, 10% starting from April and till the end of June 2024, and 15% starting from July and till the end of September.
Previously, in December, Diana Mondino, the minister of foreign affairs, international trade and worship of Argentina, claimed that a decree aimed at economic reform and deregulation would allow the use of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in the country under certain conditions.
The “Bases for the Reconstruction of the Argentine Economy” decree, passed on Dec. 20, did not specifically mention crypto but included provisions that debtors could pay in currencies not recognized as legal tender in Argentina.
Javier Milei came into power amid pressing inflation across the country. The Argentine president once referred to Bitcoin as a movement toward “the return of money to its original creator, the private sector.” Since taking office, he has not publicly spoken about digital assets.
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Vitalik Buterin proposes to make Ethereum PoS ‘lighter and simpler’
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed a way to reduce the load on the Ethereum blockchain and make its proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus “considerably simpler and lighter.”
On Dec. 28, Vitalik Buterin proposed a method of reducing the number of signatures that validators are required to make to keep the network running, thus reducing load.
Ethereum currently supports a very high number of validators, around 895,000, to try to achieve decentralization and allow regular people to participate in staking.
However, supporting this many validators comes with major technical downsides as it requires the network to process a huge number of signatures, around 28,000 per slot, “which is a very high load,” he noted.
Moreover, supporting this load entails several sacrifices, such as limiting quantum resistance, complicated forking, and scaling signatures through zero-knowledge proofs (SNARKs), he explained.
It also does not fully achieve the goal of enabling ordinary people to participate, as the 32 minimum to become a validator is still too high for many.
Instead of trying to make an ever-increasing number of signatures per slot work, Buterin advocated moving to a moderate solution with around 8,192 signatures per slot down from the current 28,000.
This would allow major technical simplification, make the chain more quantum-resistant, and still keep the total slashable ETH high at around 1-2 million ETH. Slashing is a mechanism put in place to enforce good validator behavior.
Buterin suggested three potential approaches: relying entirely on decentralized staking pools, a two-tiered system with “heavy” and “light” staking, and rotating participation with accountable committees.
The proposed solutions aim to reduce the digital signature load to a manageable level.
The key advantage would be setting the future signature load at a manageable level, making protocol and infrastructure development much easier.
“The future load of the Ethereum protocol becomes no longer an unknown,” he said before concluding that “it can be raised in the future through hard forks, but only when developers are confident that technology has improved enough to be able to handle a larger number of signatures-per-slot with the same level of ease.”
In May, Vitalik Buterin warned of the dangers of “stretching” Ethereum’s consensus past its core functions of validating blocks and securing the network.
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Spot Bitcoin ETF could result in ‘millions of unbacked BTC,’ analyst says
Potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States will trigger fundamental problems related to the original vision of Bitcoin by the anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, according to one analyst.
The concept of a spot Bitcoin ETF — an investment product that tracks the price of BTC by holding Bitcoin — conflicts with the idea of self-custody, according to Josef Tetek, a Bitcoin analyst at the hardware crypto wallet firm Trezor.
Unlike a Bitcoin ETF, self-custodial crypto storage solutions allow users to own Bitcoin by taking full responsibility for holding the private key — or the actual assets.
“In principle, spot Bitcoin ETFs take people further from self-custody and potentially introduce a systemic risk, as ETFs will be safer on the surface than exchanges,” Tetek said in an interview with Cointelegraph.
One possible consequence of spot Bitcoin ETF approval could be that large quantities of BTC would be stored in central locations where the government could seize it, the analyst said, referring to a scenario seen with the confiscation of gold in the United States in the 1930s. Tetek added:
“And while a spot Bitcoin ETF would make exposure to Bitcoin price movements more accessible to individuals and institutions alike, simply buying Bitcoin through conventional means would offer the same exposure. Do we really need ETFs for this?”
Another significant issue with a spot Bitcoin ETF is that ETF holders will not have the option to withdraw the underlying asset. Instead, these assets are held in aggregate by the ETF itself, which raises the possibility of the unchecked issuance of “paper Bitcoin,” not supported by actual Bitcoin, the supply of which is capped at 21 million coins, Tetek noted. The analyst stated:
“The result could be the creation of millions of unbacked Bitcoin, which would distort genuine markets and depress the value of real Bitcoin — all while handing greater agency to the giants of centralized, traditional finance. The very antithesis of Satoshi’s original vision.”
Tetek’s remarks on self-custody versus spot Bitcoin ETFs flag a potential downside amid the growing optimism on the market, with various firms and analysts expecting U.S. securities regulators to approve a spot BTC ETF in January 2024.
Not everyone has been optimistic about spot BTC ETFs, though. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs could “completely destroy” Bitcoin if they are too successful. If not Bitcoin, such ETFs will likely compete with centralized crypto exchanges like Coinbase, as ETF fees are expected to be lower than those on exchanges, according to some Bloomberg analysts.
According to Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan, there is no direct conflict between self-custody and spot Bitcoin ETFs because retail users will stick to self-custody.
“Personally speaking, I would never buy any sort of paper IOU forms of Bitcoin, but that's because I have the option of self-custody,” Greenspan told Cointelegraph. “Most institutions don't have that option,” he added.
“There are zero advantages and plenty of disadvantages for retail investors to hold Bitcoin ETFs. Way better to just hold Bitcoin,” Greenspan stated.
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Bitcoin ETFs attract $1.4B in two trading sessions
The newly launched spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen inflows totaling $1.4 billion in the first two trading sessions, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
A total of 500,000 trades were made on the funds, totaling a trading volume of $3.6 billion, according to data from Bloomberg. Trading volume considers the outflows and inflows from the funds. Balchunas suggested the numbers may be adjusted due to transactions awaiting accounting settlement.
The data reveals Grayscale's ETF, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), experienced an outflow of $579 million during the period. After deducting the outflows from GBTC, the net total inflows across the products stood at $819 million. The funds' initial activity is so far aligned with previous predictions from ETF analyst James Seyffart, who believes Bitcoin ETFs could attract around $10 billion in the first year.
Grayscale’s GBTC outflows could be explained by holders converting shares after redemption was opened this week when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission granted the ETFs approval through a ruling change. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci told Bloomberg that some GBTC holders are booking losses and switching to lower fee options.
GBTC is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin (BTC), managing over $27 billion worth of the cryptocurrency as per data from the blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence. Shares of GBTC have been traded since 2013 but were not redeemable for Bitcoin until Jan. 1.
On the top of this week's performance was BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with $497.7 million total flows, followed by Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) amassing $422.3 million and Bitwise (BITB) attracting $237.9 million.
After a 75% rally in the 90 days leading up to ETFs approval, Bitcoin price experienced a 6.8% decline between Jan. 11 and Jan. 12, confirming bears’ theory of a sell-the-news-style event following the SEC green light, according to market analysis. The cryptocurrency trades at $42,856 at the time of writing, a 0.77% decline over the past 24 hours.
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Do Kwon requests to postpone SEC trial date, while in extradition custody
Terraform Labs co-founder, Do Kwon, has requested the United States District Court to postpone his trial date until March, citing extradition challenges in Montenegro as the reason for seeking the delay.
In a letter dated January 11 addressed to U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff, Kwon's legal team emphasized his interest in attending the trial personally, which is scheduled for January 29. However, they had anticipated that Kwon would have already been permitted to return to the U.S. by now:
“Mr. Kwon wishes to attend his trial. Counsel had hoped the extradition proceedings in Montenegro would proceed more quickly than they have.”
In February 2023, the SEC filed fraud charges against Kwon, accusing him of having a role in orchestrating a multi-billion dollar crypto-securities fraud.
The charges were related to the collapse of Terraform Labs' stablecoin TerraClassicUSD (USTC) and its associated crypto token, Terra Luna Classic (LUNC).
While recognizing the urgency of the trial, Kwon's legal team indicated that this month's trial date would not be feasible for him to attend.
“We understand the Court cannot put the trial on hold indefinitely, but an adjournment until mid-March would provide a realistic possibility for Mr. Kwon to attend,” the letter stated.
In December 2023 reported that the Appellate Court of Montenegro ruled to annul the decision of the High Court of Podgorica approving Kwon’s extradition to either the U.S. or South Korea.
This follows reports only a week earlier that US and South Korea authorities were requesting that Kwon be held for an additional two months following the conclusion of his sentence.
Both the U.S. and South Korea are seeking Kwon’s extradition to their respective countries. There has been mounting speculation that Kwon could be subject to multiple sentences in both countries.
Kwon was arrested in Montenegro in March 2023 after attempting to use falsified travel documents to leave the country.
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India’s Digital Rupee Hit 1 Million Daily Transactions in December: Report
India’s digital rupee hit 1 million daily transactions in December, aligning with the Reserve Bank of India’s targeted goal for daily transactions by the end of 2023, Reuters reported.
The central bank digital currency (CBDC), known as the e-rupee, was introduced as a digital alternative to physical cash and was constructed using distributed ledger technology.
The RBI initiated the digital rupee pilot in December 2022. Despite an initial average of only 25,000 transactions per day by the end of October, the use case witnessed significant expansion when linked to the United Payments Interface (UPI), a popular framework facilitating peer-to-peer money transfers via mobile apps.
Bank Employees Paid in E-Rupee
As reported earlier, several prominent private and state-run banks, including HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Canara Bank, and IDFC First Bank, reportedly disbursed employee benefits directly to CBDC wallets, diverging from the traditional salary account method. This strategic move is expected to prompt non-financial firms to follow suit, contributing to further transaction growth.
The user base for the digital rupee has steadily expanded, reaching approximately 4 million users at present, up from 3 million in December, according to a third executive familiar with the pilot.
While sources declined to be identified due to a lack of authorization to speak to the media, it was reported that the RBI is awaiting responses to an email seeking comments on this development.
Central Banks Across the World Move Forward with CBDC
Globally, countries such as China, France, and Ghana are in the pilot stages of their CBDC projects. Despite efforts, countries like Nigeria have faced limited success in rolling out their digital currencies, even with incentives such as discounts on auto-rickshaw rides.
Indian banks are also actively encouraging e-rupee transactions by offering incentives, following a directive from the RBI to boost transaction volumes. Sharat Chandra, co-founder of the India Blockchain Forum, commended the move, suggesting that compensating employees using CBDC is a positive step, and he recommended exploring other avenues such as toll tax collections to further encourage adoption.
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South Korea Proposes Ban on Crypto Purchases with Credit Cards
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) has announced a proposal to amend its Enforcement Decree of the Credit-Specialized Financial Business Act, aiming to ban cryptopurchases with credit cards.
The proposed amendment plans to restrict the use of credit cards for purchasing cryptocurrencies on foreign exchanges. According to the FSC, it is driven by concerns over illegal outflows of domestic funds, money laundering, and the fostering of speculative behavior in cryptocurrency trading.
Korea FSC Highlights Risks in Overseas Crypto Trading
Included in the Content section, the FSC addressed, “Concerns have been raised about illegal outflow of domestic funds overseas due to card payments on overseas virtual asset exchanges, money laundering, speculation, and encouragement of speculative activities.”
In addition, the FSC expected that “a basis for cooperation with international brands will be established and prevention of foreign currency outflow and money laundering will be strengthened.”
The proposal listed a public feedback period extending until Feb. 13, allowing for input and comments from individuals and organizations. Following this period, the amendment is expected to undergo review and be voted on, with the goal of implementing the new rules in the first half of 2024.
South Korean Officials’ Crypto Transactions Exposed by Anti-Corruption Probe
A recent investigation by the Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission in South Korea has uncovered substantial cryptocurrency trading activities among the country’s lawmakers.
Over the past three years, they collectively traded virtual assets worth approximately 125.6 billion won ($97.6 million). The findings were based on a 90-day inspection of transaction records of all 298 sitting lawmakers from May 30, 2020, to May 31, 2023.
The commission’s report identified 18 lawmakers who owned virtual assets, with 11 engaging in active trading. The buying and selling transactions of these lawmakers amounted to 62.5 billion won ($48.4 million) and 63.1 billion won ($48.8 million), respectively.
Among the various cryptocurrencies traded, Bitcoin was the most popular. The report also revealed a diverse portfolio of virtual assets, encompassing 107 different types. One lawmaker was identified as conducting 49 crypto transactions without reporting them, citing a closed exchange account.
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15 years, 90K 'Bitcoinaires' — Bitcoin millionaire wallets jump 300%
Bitcoin may have made upward of 100,000 U.S. dollar millionaires as it enters its sixteenth year.
Data shows that the number of wallets containing BTC worth at least $1 million is up nearly 300% since the start of 2023.
Bitcoin millionaire wallets close in on record high
Bitcoin is now the ninth most valuable asset in the world as it celebrates its fifteenth birthday. Fifteen years to the day that the genesis block was mined, Bitcoin has a market cap of around $900 billion.
The past year has marked a renaissance for Bitcoin hodlers, with BTC emerging from the pit of its longest-ever bear market to gain 160% in USD terms.
Now, per on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin “millionaires” number more than 91,000. Measured as unique addresses with a balance of at least $1 million, the tally — while not yet at all-time highs seen in November 2021 — is still nearly four times higher than on Jan. 3, 2023.
“Let us not forget that Bitcoin is the 9th most valuable asset in the world. In less than 15 years, it surpassed 7,963 other assets to accomplish this,” author Oliver Velez commented on Bitcoin’s metamorphosis.
“By the end of 2025, I suspect it to be in the top three. We shall see.”
Survey: Bitcoin millionaires seek peace of mind
The numbers have clear implications for existing Bitcoiners and were not lost on the industry’s household names.
Given its fixed, immutable supply of 21 million units — several million of which are considered irretrievably lost — Bitcoin faces a supply squeeze in the making should more of the world’s roughly 60,000,000 dollar millionaires decide to increase exposure.
According to a survey from investment migration consultancy firm Henley & Partners from September last year, there could be another 40,500 people whose million-dollar wealth is held in BTC.
“We have seen a significant spike in enquiries from crypto millionaires over the past six months, who are all looking to build a viable ‘Plan B’ to protect themselves against any potential future bans on the trading or use of cryptocurrencies in their countries, and to allay the risks of aggressive fiscal policies that tax digital assets at source,” CEO Dr. Juerg Steffen told private banking news service WealthBriefing at the time.
Henley added that as of September, there appeared to be just six Bitcoin billionaires.
Meanwhile, "wholecoiners" — those unique addresses containing at least 1 BTC now number more than 1 million for the first time, Glassnode shows.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction Amid $42,000 Dip: BlackRock, VanEck ETF Moves & JPMorgan CEO’s Stance
In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin‘s latest market movements have become a focal point of interest. As of Saturday, Bitcoin’s trading value hovers around $42,000, marking a decline of over 1.50%.
This fluctuation coincides with significant developments in the investment sector, where prominent asset managers like BlackRock and VanEck have revised their filings for a spot bitcoin ETF, indicating a shift in the institutional approach towards Bitcoin.
Parallel to these market movements, JPMorgan CEO’s recent criticism of Bitcoin underscores a complex narrative in the financial world, reflecting a nuanced stance of ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’ towards this leading digital currency.
BlackRock, VanEck Revise Filings for Bitcoin ETF
The anticipation of major asset management firms obtaining regulatory approval for spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is creating buzz in the market, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
As the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reviews submissions from industry heavyweights like BlackRock, VanEck, and Fidelity, market players are eagerly awaiting a decision expected by January 10.
This anticipation has been contributing to the positive sentiment around Bitcoin, whose price has already surged this year to approximately $42,000.
Approval of these ETFs by the SEC could mark a significant shift in regulatory stance, potentially attracting more institutional interest and investment in Bitcoin and driving its price even higher.
JPMorgan CEO’s Contradictory Stance on Bitcoin
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, known for his harsh criticism of cryptocurrency, is facing allegations of hypocrisy due to the bank’s involvement in BlackRock’s proposed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Despite Dimon’s vocal opposition to cryptocurrencies, often citing their use by criminals and calling for government regulation, JPMorgan is poised to play a crucial role in BlackRock’s potential Bitcoin ETF.
As an authorized participant, JPMorgan would ensure accurate ETF pricing and fluid trading under all market conditions, contradicting Dimon’s public skepticism. This situation highlights a significant inconsistency, often phrased as “do as I say, not as I do.”
While the direct impact on Bitcoin prices remains uncertain, the increasing engagement of major financial institutions in cryptocurrency ventures could signal growing mainstream acceptance and foster a positive market sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
As of December 30, Bitcoin navigates crucial technical levels, with a pivotal point at $42,965 influencing its immediate direction. Facing resistances at $43,857, $44,679, and $45,962, Bitcoin’s path is laden with potential barriers.
Conversely, it finds support at $41,683, $40,649, and $39,506 – crucial markers for its stability.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 points to a bearish sentiment, yet not in oversold territory. This indicates a cautious approach among market participants. Bitcoin also trades below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $42,983, affirming a short-term bearish outlook.
Notably, a bearish engulfing pattern below the 50 EMA, around $42,985, suggests a potential downtrend. However, an upward trendline around $41,750 might offer support, preventing a steep fall.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current trend leans bearish below the $42,985 level. Despite this, it’s poised at key levels that could provide a solid foundation against further decline. Investors and traders are keenly watching these indicators to navigate the dynamic cryptocurrency market.
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OKX crypto exchange to delist privacy tokens in early 2024
Global cryptocurrency exchange OKX will delist several p including Monero, in early 2024.
OKX officially announced on Dec. 29 that it will delist a number of trading pairs involving major privacy tokens like Monero and Zcash, as well as partly private coins like Dash and Horizen (ZEN). The OKX exchange will remove a total of 11 trading pairs involving those tokens on Jan. 5, 2024, the announcement notes.
“In order to maintain a robust spot trading environment, we constantly monitor the performance of all listed trading pairs and review their listing qualifications on a regular basis,” OKX said in the announcement. The firm added that the decision was made “based on feedback from users” and the OKX token delisting or hiding guidelines.
In addition, OKX suspended deposits for certain privacy-related coins, including XMR, DASH, ZEC and ZEN on Dec. 27. OKX will also be suspending withdrawals of XMR, DASH, ZEC and ZEN starting from March 5, 2024. “We will continue to monitor all listed trading pairs and implement the delisting/hiding mechanism as necessary,” the firm noted.
The OKX crypto exchange is one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, trading at least $3 billion in crypto per day, according to data from CoinGecko. At the time of writing, OKX lists a total of 482 trading pairs, including four trading pairs involving Monero, two DASH pairs, three ZEC pairs and two ZEN pairs.
OKX didn’t immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.
In announcing the latest delistings, OKX joins several exchanges that have delisted or tried to delist privacy or privacy-related tokens in the past. Cryptocurrency exchange Huobi announced plans to delist seven privacy-related coins in September 2022, citing its token management policy and compliance efforts.
Binance announced plans to delist all privacy tokens in countries like France and Italy in May 2023 but eventually reversed its decision in June.
At the time of writing, Binance lists four Monero trading pairs, including XMR/BTC, XMR/ETH/ XMR/USDT and XMR/BNB, as well as three ZEC trading pairs, according to data from CoinMarketCap. According to CoinGecko data, Huobi also lists XMR/USDT and ZEC/USDT trading pairs.
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FTX Debtors Release Estimated Values for Cryptocurrency Claims, Bitcoin Priced at $16,871 per Coin
FTX Trading Ltd. affiliated debtors have submitted a motion for the entry of an order estimating the value of claims related to digital assets and fiat currency, including customer entitlement claims.
In a filing made on December 27 in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, the FTX debtors proposed estimating the value of various digital assets based on their prices at the time of the petition date, which was November 11, 2022.
The proposal by FTX debtors to estimate the value of digital assets listed prices for approximately 500 assets in fiat and cryptocurrency, based on those at the time of FTX’s bankruptcy filing.
The proposed values include Bitcoin at $16,871, Ethereum at $1,258, Solana (SOL) at $16, Avalanche (AVAX) at $14.19, and stablecoins like USDT, TUSD, and BUSD at values slightly less than their usual $1 peg. Notably, the proposal excluded an estimated FTX Token (FTT) price; however, it included prices for leveraged tokens, tokenized stocks, spot derivatives, and crypto futures.
The debtors argued that their valuations represent a “fair and reasonable” value of these digital assets as of the specified petition date. The court will need to review and approve these valuations as part of FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings.
Given the unique nature of these Chapter 11 cases, where millions of claims are based on digital assets, the debtors propose a Digital Assets Conversion Table to streamline the process and avoid unnecessary delays. This table estimates the value of each digital asset on which claims are based as of the petition date.
The court is expected to have broad discretion in choosing the best-suited method to estimate the valuation of claims based on digital assets, and the debtors used data from Coin Metrics for this purpose.
According to the filing,
“This Court has broad discretion to choose whatever method it deems best-suited to the particular circumstances to estimate the valuation of claims based on digital assets. Courts consider all factors and circumstances surrounding the claims but do not seek to estimate claims with mathematical precision.”
The proposed plan for calculating claims involves converting the value of digital assets into cash as of the petition date using the rates set forth in the Digital Assets Conversion Table and making distributions in cash. The motion emphasizes the impracticality of liquidating individual claims for each digital asset and underscores that the value of these claims is derived from the underlying digital assets.
Parties involved in the bankruptcy case have until January 11 to file objections, and a hearing on the matter is scheduled for January 25. The motion granting an order to estimate creditor claims based on the proposed pricing is pending approval by the court.
FTX Users Express Concerns and Criticism Over Proposed Valuation Plan, Some Labeling It a ‘Scam’
The proposed plan by FTX debtors to estimate the value of various digital assets based on their prices at the time of the petition date, November 11, 2022, has faced criticism from FTX users. Some users described the plan as a “scam” and expressed frustration at the extended duration of the case, suggesting accepting the offered terms to avoid further uncertainty and legal costs.
FTX has incurred significant legal fees, with over $118 million billed between August and October for professional legal fees. The latest expense comes to about $53,000 per hour and over $1.3 million per day on average, according to court filings.
Sunil Kavuri, a prominent creditor of the bankrupt firm, criticized the motion, stating that it grossly undervalued the digital assets’ worth and encouraged customers to “fight” against the proposed plan.
The FTX 2.0 Coalition, representing FTX creditors, has encouraged customers who wish to object to the proposed estimation of digital asset values to write a letter directly to the judge overseeing the bankruptcy case.
Why is Solana (SOL) price down today?
Solana is witnessing a price correction after rallying over 100% in December. SOL's decline appears to be the result of profit-taking and capital rotation into Ethereum's token.
Overbought correction
On Dec. 28, SOL's price has fallen to $101.50, three days after reaching $126.50, the highest level since April 2022.
It is evident that traders have started booking profits after Solana's latest price rally. One indicator suggesting this is SOL's daily relative strength index (RSI), which crossed above 70, or "overbought" earlier in December.
For instance, Solana's richest investors have recently started selling their SOL holdings. On Dec. 28, just around Solana's 5% daily drop, someone deposited 303,756 SOL worth $32.8 million to Binance, potentially boosting sell-side pressure.
Solana's top rival gains momentum
Solana's price drop today coincides with gains for its top layer-one (L1) blockchain rival, Ethereum.
Notably, ETH price has climbed 12.35% to around $2,450 during SOL's price correction. As a result, the SOL/ETH pair has plunged 23.75% this week, suggesting capital rotation from SOL to ETH.
Solana TVL drops by 2M
SOL's price drop on Dec. 28 follows a period of decline in the total-value-locked (TVL) across the Solana dapps ecosystem.
Notably, Solana's TVL has dropped by 2 million SOL (~$200 million) since Dec. 20, according to DeFi Llama. Less SOL locked in Solana's applications means more supply elsewhere, including crypto exchanges, which can also increase sell-pressure on the market.
Solana price analysis
Solana price technicals suggest SOL/USD is overbought even on larger-timeframe charts, raising the possibility of a correction or consolidation period in January.
The bears will attempt to close the price below its 0.382 Fibonacci line support near $100, opening the door for the next big support level at the 0.236 Fibonacci line ($68.5), down 35% from current levels.
Conversely, the bulls will aim for a decisive weekly (and yearly) close above the 0.5 Fib line near near $130. Flipping this level into support could propel SOL price to $150 by February.
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‘Revenge of the ETH’ — Is Ethereum’s 9% jump the start of something big?
After being drastically outperformed by Solana for the past three months, the price of Ether suddenly spiked 8.9% in the last 24 hours, leading to some bullish sentiment returning to Ethereum.
“The revenge of the ETH is starting,” wrote Jordi Alexander, the chief investment officer at Selini Capital, in a Dec. 27 post to X (formerly Twitter).
Alexander pointed to a recent rally across several altcoins and Michael Saylor buying another $615 million worth of Bitcoin on Dec. 26 as solid foundations for ETH to make an upside move over the next few weeks.
“The risk/reward on Ether is so compelling here, that I see a liquidity black hole now forming in January,” he added.
Pseudonymous trader Pentoshi added his bullish target for Ether, posting a semi-cryptic chart to X with an approximate price target of $3,485.
“Slowly, then all at once,” he added.
The conflict between community members from the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems reached a fever pitch over the last few weeks.
While Ether has gained 102% year-to-date, its price performance has been dwarfed by that of Solana, which has posted a whopping 951% gain since the beginning of this year, per TradingView data.
This outsized price performance, along with a tidal wave of relative on-chain activity, led many to assert that the networks’ lower fees and faster settlement times made it the superior blockchain when compared to Ethereum.
On the other hand, Ethereum backers claimed that the networks’ architecture was more suited to larger entities conducting business on-chain and pointed to layer-2 scaling solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum as examples of cheaper fees on ETH.
At the time of publication, ETH is changing hands for $2,417, up 8.9% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, Solana has taken a breather from its recent upward tear, trading at $104 — a loss of 4.2% in the last day.
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These 3 Bitcoin metrics say a fresh BTC price move is 'imminent'
Bitcoin is showing classic signs that fresh BTC price gains are near, one longtime market participant says.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Dec. 27, trader and popular social media commentator Matthew Hyland predicted “imminent” bullish moves.
Trader on BTC price: “Seems like a move is imminent”
Bitcoin may have flagged over Christmas, dipping to lows of $41,650, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView — but the tide could soon change.
For Hyland, two key BTC price indicators point the way to a short-term reversal.
Coming in the form of Bollinger bands and relative strength index (RSI), these have provided advance notice of upside in recent months.
“Daily Bollinger Bands are back to squeezing to the level that triggered the last two moves up through $30k and $40k. With the Daily RSI at 2-month lows, & the 3-Day MACD currently crossing down with less than 3 days to negate,” he wrote.
“It seems like a move is imminent here.”
Bollinger bands constrict
Bollinger bands are a popular volatility indicator, which closely track BTC price action and suggest when volatility could break out.
Currently, the daily-timeframe bands are narrowing after a period of expansion — something which, while not necessarily straightaway, precedes a new round of volatility.
Earlier this year, the bands collapsed to an extremely narrow position, as reported, in the run-up to the recovery above $30,000.
Hyland posted an accompanying chart showing how comparatively tight the bands currently are.
RSI flushes out “oversold” levels
Relative strength index (RSI) has proven a faithful tool for Bitcoin traders during the Q4 bullish comeback.
The classic momentum oscillator, which offers an insight into how overbought or oversold BTC/USD is at a given price, has seen something of a reset on daily timeframes in the second half of December.
Now at 53, RSI is firmly below the “overbought” 70 line — and even further below its month-to-date peak of 76.
Longer timeframes are just as promising, as noted last week by veteran trader Peter Brandt.
“Daily RSI currently at lowest levels in over two months; when price was below $27k,” Hyland meanwhile added in a separate X post.
MACD counts down for bears
One other indicator, however, may yet throw a spanner in the works when it comes to a happy new year for Bitcoin bulls.
This is moving average convergence divergence (MACD), which on three-day timeframes is threatening a bearish trend flip.
Hyland notes that several days remain in order for the signal to “negate” itself thanks to price action.
“Cross was 100% accurate the whole year leading to lower and higher prices after,” part of further commentary on Dec. 27 read.
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Crypto thieves will deploy more convincing AI scams in 2024, firms warn
AI-powered phishing scams, BRC-20 exploits, and new smart contract vulnerabilities are among the biggest threats that crypto projects and investors will likely face in 2024, according to blockchain security firms.
While the $1.7 billion in scam and hack-related losses in 2023 stands as an undeniable improvement to the $4 billion lost in 2022 — Jesse Leclere, a blockchain analyst from CertiK, warned Cointelegraph that scams are only becoming more advanced and users should remain hyper-vigilant for well-executed exploits.
“Phishing, evolving in its sophistication, will likely target not only individual users but also corporate systems [...] using social engineering tactics tailored to the crypto context,” said Leclere, pointing to the Dec. 14 Ledger Connect exploit as a prime example of an advanced attack.
One of the key elements that will see phishing scams become more nefarious is the use of generative AI, he added, allowing hackers to automate operations and create convincing fake calls, videos, and messages through which to ensnare potential victims.
Jenny Peng, a research analyst from 0xScope warns that AI could form a key component in generating ever-more realistic “deep fakes” to fool crypto users.
Peng added that hackers are likely to also give the burgeoning BRC-20 ecosystem “extra attention” next year due to a relative lack of developments in security.
“BRC-20 UniSat wallet launched in early 2023 and was promptly hit with a double-spend exploit. This incident shows that the BRC-20 ecosystem, where everything is new, will need to evolve its infrastructure quickly to be as battle-tested as Ethereum’s security-wise,” she added.
Already one of the most long-standing pain pointsfor the industry, cross-chain bridges will continue to be a concern in 2024, said Leclere.
“As the industry increasingly adopts cross-chain solutions for greater interoperability, these protocols will become attractive targets for attackers, exploiting vulnerabilities arising from complex interactions between different protocols and chains,” he added.
Many of the crypto sector’s largest hacks to date have resulted from bridge exploits — with the infamous $650 million Ronin bridge hack still standing as the worst on record. Without some serious security upgrades in the future, Leclere believes this will remain an issue for the industry heading into 2024.
Meanwhile, Phil Larratt, director of investigations at Chainalysis, offered asimilar caution, warning that bad actors will grow increasingly adept at getting away with their ill-gotten gains.
“In 2024, we can anticipate that illicit actors are going to become more sophisticated in the tactics and techniques they use, especially as more long-standing traditional organized criminals and financial crime actors continue to adopt crypto,” he said.
With increasing know-how from security firms and law enforcement, Larratt warned that the next wave of scammers would most likely utilize privacy coins, bridges, mixers, and other obfuscation tools to a greater extent.
“In response to this likely trend, we will need more intensive law enforcement investigations, increased training and knowledge sharing by law enforcement organizations, even more advanced fraud protection programs, and continued partnerships between the public and private sectors,” he said.
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