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Bitcoin buyer pushes BTC price past $38K as traders demand key breakout
Bitcoin bulls kept the pressure on 18-month highs on Nov. 24 as analysis eyed buyer interest spiking.
Bitcoin fights for new 18-month high
Data showed the BTC price trajectory heading upward into the Wall Street open.
The largest cryptocurrency saw increasing momentum during the Asia trading session, this nonetheless with its roots on derivatives markets.
Following the action, popular trader Skew confirmed that a single entity was likely behind the latest charge on $38,000.
“Some buyer probably single buyer is trying to push the market higher here ~ clear correlation between spot & perp CVDs / Delta,” he wrote in part of his latest post on X (formerly Twitter.)
Skew subsequently revealed the long BTC position had been closed, and with momentum flagging, a higher high (HH) was needed on lower timeframes — beyond the current $38,000 ceiling. At the time of writing, this was in progress.
Zooming out, others were still optimistic about resistance levels ultimately falling. For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MN Trading, it was all about the $40,000 mark.
“Still so far, so good on Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers on the day.
“Slowly grinding upwards to a new resistance point and a break above $38K immediately means $40K is next.”
Fellow popular trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile described $38,000 as the line in the sand after which “easy mode” returns to Bitcoin trading. The corresponding level on Ether, he added, was $2,150.
About turn at $40,000?
Some market participants believe that a fresh BTC price retracement will enter following an initial foray into the area around $40,000.
Among them is popular trader Crypto Tony, who, on the day, suggested that even $39,000 could prove a short-term turning point.
$39,000, meanwhile, stands out for a variety of reasons, including the aggregate profitability of those who bought BTC during the 2021 bull market.
Elsewhere, encouraging signs from Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) continued to provide bulls with fuel for further upside.
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‘Strap yourselves in’ — Bull market coming early 2024, say crypto exchange heads
The market has already entered the first phase of a major rally, with the number of people buying crypto trickling upward which is expected to accelerate early next year, say the heads of Australia’s largest crypto exchanges.
Independent Reserve CEO Adrian Przelozny told Cointelegraph he expects market activity to see an uptick in early 2024 and is hiring to build infrastructure before that happens.
“We’re just doing everything we can to get ready for a bull market because we know that when the bull market comes, it happens very fast,” he said. “You need to make sure you have the processes, people, and infrastructure in place so when your business triples overnight, you can handle it.”
“I think the next two years are going to be good. Strap yourselves in.”
BTC Markets chief Caroline Bowler said market conditions had grown more bullish over the year, with a general recovery that kicked off in January.
Bowler added while the trajectory of market gains hadn’t exactly been linear, the industry-wide growth in both asset prices and tech applications were reasons to be confident.
“The current deployment of ‘dry powder,' an influx of new users, and an uptick in trading volumes further support our assessment that we are in the early stages of a bull market.”
Tommy Honan, Swyftx’s product strategy head, said his exchange had begun to see an uptick in buying activity and is moving quickly to shore up direct debit functionality — a recent pain point for Australia’s crypto scene as Australia’s ‘Big Four’ banks have limited or outright banned deposits to some exchanges.
Honan ruled out fear of missing out — FOMO — as the reason for the activity uptick, instead highlighting that market fundamentals had become more attractive to investors who took the sideline during the bear market.
“All our indicators are flashing green at the moment. We’re seeing a significant number of customers come back to the market after periods of inactivity during the bear market. The market is waking up, but the truth is no one knows where we’re at in the cycle.”
Kraken Australia managing director Jonathon Miller was on the side of caution and said it can be difficult to tell what phase the market is in.
“There’s a common misconception that the crypto markets are either in a bull market or bear market. In reality, there’s a large gray area between these two,” he said.
Miller admitted that compared to this time last year, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, specifically looking to next year’s Bitcoin halvingand Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade, which he believes is already starting to pique attention from institutional and retail investors
“The expanding institutional appetite for crypto assets is often underlooked. Yes, the markets are currently focused on ETF filings for Bitcoin and Ether, but in the last year, we’ve seen a revival of interest from many institutional clients looking for exposure to this emerging asset class,” he added.
Binance Australia general manager Ben Rose didn’t want to make the call on whether a bull market had arrived but noted new registrations and trading activity on the Australian arm of Binance had increased in recent months.
Rose said Binance Australia was focused on educating users ahead of a potential rally and ensuring users avoid FOMO buying.
“We asked a lot of exiting customers about the reasons they got into crypto, and a quarter of them said that seeing others succeed with crypto was the main reason. That’s the single biggest driver. So FOMO in crypto is a real thing,” he explained.
Rose said the key to retaining users throughout the next potential market surge was ensuring that people didn’t get trampled during a market frenzy.
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Bitcoin ETF hype returns as ‘aggressive bid’ sends BTC price near $38K
Bitcoin took fresh aim at $38,000 into Nov. 23 as an “aggressive bid” dispelled cold feet over Binance’s $4.3 billion fine.
Bitcoin analysis: “Something is cooking”
Data showed BTC price strength making a striking comeback to top out at $37,870.
A subsequent cooling off kept the market near $37,500, with the mood markedly different from just 24 hours prior.
Then, concerns over United States legal action against the largest exchange, Binance, sparked a cascade of long liquidations, which only ended at one-week lows.
The bounce ended up equally impressive, however, and appeared to catch some market participants by surprise with its intensity.
“BTC — some thick buy walls over on the spot Binance market,” popular trader Ninja reacted on X (formerly Twitter).
“Have not seen such an aggressive bid for a while. Something is cooking.”
A popular narrative once again involved a potential U.S. go-ahead for a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), something that could be just less than 50 days away.
Events at Binance, as reported, may have provided a timely backdrop for the first U.S. approval of the long-awaited institutional investment product.
Analyzing the situation, fellow trader Pentoshi likewise suggested that the stars might be aligning for BTC price upside thanks to ETF-induced demand.
Regardless of price action, he added, the approval would mean “the beginning of substantial multi decades of tradfi allocation.”
Continuing, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm Jan3, nonetheless brought back a $1 million Bitcoin unit price at the hands of the new institutional capital inflows.
“It has come to my attention that there are some Bitcoiners that don’t think Bitcoin can reach $1,000,000 in a matter of days/weeks after ETF money starts to flow in. They’re in for a pleasant surprise,” he said.
RSI “reset” boosts short-term bullish thesis
Eyeing the prospect of upside returning, social media commentator Cold Blooded Shiller was among those bullish on relative strength index (RSI) values.
These had been reset by the trip to weekly lows, he concluded, paving the way for another impulse higher.
This was the case not only for Bitcoin but also for Ether and some other major altcoins.
“The reason this is so important is that usually when the RSI is in this position it’s the basis for a fresh position,” he wrote in part of the accompanying commentary.
“Strong trending markets tend to hold this level. Getting down towards that ‘cool off’ region indicates corrections are complete and trend resumes.”
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Director YOLO'd $4M of Netflix budget into Dogecoin, made $27M: Report
The director of Netflix’s sci-fi series Conquestreportedly used $4 million from the show’s budget to bet on Dogecoin and made $27 million in the process.
Now the director, Carl Erik Rinsch, wants another $14 million from Netflix, according to a Nov. 22 report in The New York Times citing a confidential arbitration proceeding.
The Times report details the behind-the-scenes drama of Rinsch’s sci-fi Netflix series Conquest, which the streaming giant doled out $55 million to make, but is yet to receive an episode.
In March 2020, 16 months after Netflix bought Rinsch’s idea and provided him with an initial budget of $44 million, the director asked for more funds. Netflix obliged and wired him $11 million on the condition he finished the show.
According to financial statements obtained by the Times Rinsch used $10.5 million from the fresh funding to gamble on the stock market and allegedly lost nearly $6 million in just a few weeks by placing options bets on pharmaceutical companies and the S&P 500,
With a little over $4 million left, Rinsch transferred the money to the crypto exchange Kraken and went all in on DOGE. When he liquidated in May 2021, he withdrew around $27 million, per an account statement seen by the Times
“Thank you and god bless crypto,” Rinsch wrote in a chat with a Kraken representative.
With the proceeds, Rinsch allegedly spent nearly $9 million on high-end furniture, designer clothing, an over $380,000 luxury watch, five Rolls-Royces and a Ferrari, according to a forensic accountant hired by Rinsch’s ex-wife for divorce proceedings.
The Times said Rinsch launched a confidential arbitration proceeding against Netflix, claiming the streaming service breached its contract and owes him $14 million in damages. Netflix denies owing Rinsch anything and hasreferred to his demands as a shakedown.
In a deposition, Rinsch said the items in his almost $9 million spending spree were props for Conquest. He later argued in his case against Netflix that the money was actually his and he’s owed another $14 million.
A ruling on the case is expected soon as it was heard before an arbitrator earlier in November.
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BTC price returns key profit mark to Bitcoin exchange users at $34.7K
Bitcoin bought on exchanges every year since 2017 is now on average in profit, the latest data confirms.
Compiled by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, exchange withdrawal figures confirm that at $37,000, a user's purchase is on aggregate “in the black.”
Bitcoin exchange users claw back bear market losses
Bitcoin returned multiple investor cohorts to profit when it retook $30,000 last month, but current prices are having an impact on BTC buyers who entered much earlier.
According to Glassnode, which monitors the aggregate price at which coins left exchange wallets each year since 2017, $34,700 is the magic number for turning a profit on investment.
Put another way, anyone who withdrew bitcoins from a major exchange since Jan. 1, 2017 is up in dollar terms compared to the year of withdrawal.
This includes those who purchased during Bitcoin’s last bull run year, during which BTC/USD hit all-time highs of $69,000.
The last time that BTC/USD traded above all the post-2017 cost basis lines was at the end of 2021.
“The average withdrawal price for Bitcoin investors across all yearly classes are now in profit,” Checkmate, Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst, wrote in X commentary about the data on Nov. 21.
“This model can be considered the 'DCA cost basis' for the average investor who started accumulating from 1-Jan of each year. Class of 2021 have the highest entry price at $34.7k.”
New realized price records flow in
Exchange withdrawal realized price adds another key line in the sand to the current BTC price range.
As reported, $39,000 is also an important profitability mark, this reflecting the price at which 2021 bull market buyers on aggregate return to profit.
That level also forms the lower bound of popular analyst Credible Crypto’s pre-halving BTC price target range, this bounded to the upside by $50,000. The halving is due next April.
Continuing, meanwhile, James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, this week revealed a new all-time high for the total Bitcoin realized price — the complete acquisition cost of the BTC supply.
Short-term holders' (STH) coins, which refer to the portion of the supply beyond exchanges, which has moved in the past 155 days, now also have a higher acquisition cost than ever before.
The total realized price and STH realized price now stand approximately $10,000 apart, at around $20,930 and $30,460, respectively.
"This ascension emphasizes an increased probability of these coins being spent on a given day and signifies the influx of new investors, with a remarkable 3% surge being the highest since May 2023," Van Straten wrote.
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Kraken co-founder slams ‘decel’ SEC, warns others should flee US
Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell has lashed out at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after it sued his crypto exchange for alleged securities law violations.
In a Nov. 21 post on X (formerly Twitter), Powell called the regulator “USA’s top decel” — a term used in tech circles to insult someone who slows progress — and claimed the SEC wasn’t satisfied with the $30 million it levied from Kraken as a settlement in February.
In a follow-up post, Powell said the SEC’s message to Kraken and other crypto firms was clear and warned other crypto companies to leave “the US warzone” to avoid expensive legal battles.
“$30m buys you about 10 months before the SEC comes around to extort you again. Lawyers can do a lot with $30m but the SEC knows that a real fight will likely cost $100m+, and valuable time. If you can’t afford it, get your crypto company out of the US warzone.”
The regulator had previously charged Kraken with “failing to register the offer and sale of their crypto asset staking-as-a-service program.” As part of its settlement, Kraken agreed to pay $30 million and cease offering crypto-staking products and services to U.S. customers.
Powell’s incisive comments come after a Nov. 20 lawsuit from the SEC pinned Kraken on several securities law violations.
The SEC accused Kraken of failing to register with the agency as a securities broker and claimed it had commingled customer and corporate funds.
A Kraken spokesperson denied it listed unregistered securities and described the lawsuit as “disappointing,” saying the exchange would defend its position in court.
In a follow-up Nov. 20 blog post, Kraken said the SEC’s commingling accusations were “no more than Kraken spending fees it has already earned,” and the regulator doesn’t allege any user funds are missing.
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Tether freezes $225M in USDT linked to romance scammers amid DOJ investigation
Stablecoin issuer Tether has frozen roughly $225 million worth of USDT as part of a United States Department of Justice investigation into a Southeast Asian human trafficking syndicate.
In a Nov. 20 announcement, Tether said it had worked with the DOJ and crypto exchange OKX to freeze $225 million worth of USDT in “external self-custodied wallets.” The firm reported the illicit funds had been used by a crime syndicate responsible for a “pig butchering” romance scam — a technique where bad actors attempt to develop an online relationship with unsuspecting individuals, often convincing them to invest in legitimate businesses before conning them.
According to Tether, the USDT freezing followed a “months-long investigative effort” into the location of the funds between the firm, OKX, the DOJ and U.S. law enforcement agencies. The stablecoin issuer said it would work with U.S. authorities to unfreeze any “lawful” wallets that may have been seized as part of the effort.
“Through proactive engagement with global law enforcement agencies and our commitment to transparency, Tether aims to set a new standard for safety within the crypto space,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. “Our recent collaboration with the Department of Justice underscores our dedication to fostering a secure environment. We believe in leveraging technology and relationships, such as our collaboration with OKX, to proactively address illicit activities and uphold the highest standards of integrity in the industry.”
Tether has previously worked with global law enforcement agencies to freeze assets allegedly linked to criminal syndicates, such as when the firm coordinated with Israel’s National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing to freeze roughly $873,000 worth of USDT reportedly used for funding terrorist activities in Israel and Ukraine. The latest $225-million freeze appears to be the largest in Tether’s history.
Unlike many cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, which can be held outside the control of anyone but the individual with the private keys, stablecoins like USDT are more likely to be issued by a single authority. As a result, the issuers sometimes can freeze funds and halt transactions in response to requests from law enforcement.
However, crypto moving through exchanges is sometimes subject to the same treatment. In August 2022, Binance said it had restricted account access to $1 million in crypto for a Tezos tool contributor following a request from authorities and similarly froze accounts linked to Hamas militants in October 2023 in response to Israeli law enforcement.
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Chinese Court Hands 6-Year Prison Terms to Masterminds in $300 Million USDT Money Laundering Case
The Tongliang Court in China handed down sentences to 21 individuals, including key figures in a $300 million USDT money laundering case.
The massive crypto money laundering case, which spanned from November 2020 to late April 2021, revolved around the actions of the primary defendants, Jiang Moumou and Zheng Moumou.
Jian and Zheng recruited 19 additional members to carry out the money laundering scheme, with each individual having clearly defined roles and responsibilities.
Jiang Moumou received a prison sentence of six years and three months, coupled with a fine of 500,000 RMB ($68,000) for his role in concealing the proceeds of crime and criminal funds.
Zheng Moumou, another primary defendant, was sentenced to six years in prison and fined 500,000 RMB.
The remaining 19 individuals involved received fixed-term imprisonment sentences ranging from one to two years and six months, alongside monetary fines.
The Gang Used USDT to Launder Illicit Funds
To avoid detection, the group circumvented online trading platforms and executed transactions at prices significantly deviating from market rates.
Their modus operandi involved collecting stablecoin USDTconverted from the proceeds of various online crimes, including fraud and online gambling, committed by other criminals.
These ill-gotten gains were channeled through offline Bitpie collection wallets and then sold on virtual currency trading platforms.
To legitimize their transactions, the group fabricated reasons such as withdrawing project funds and migrant workers’ wages.
This allowed them to orchestrate cash withdrawals from bank counters across multiple provinces and cities, including Chongqing, Sichuan, and Shanghai.
Over $300 Million Were Transfered to Overseas Entities
The cash amounts ranged from hundreds of thousands to several million yuan per withdrawal.
Once the cash was secured, it was meticulously packed into trolley cases and backpacks, ready for transportation.
The funds were then shipped via plane to destinations in Fujian Province, specifically Xiamen and Anxi, where they were delivered to designated recipients. Each cash transfer amounted to tens of millions of yuan.
The operation’s staggering scope became apparent when it was revealed that the group had transferred over 2.25 billion yuan ($300 million) to overseas entities through this method.
Their cumulative profits from the elaborate money laundry scheme exceeded an astonishing 22.62 million yuan.
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Oyster Protocol founder gets 4 years jail for $5.5M tax evasion
Amir Bruno Elmaani, the 31-year-old founder of the now-defunct cryptocurrency scheme Oyster Protocol has been handed the maximum sentence of four years in prison for tax evasion.
The United States Attorney’s Office said on Oct. 31 that Elmaani — also known by the alias “Bruno Block” — was sentenced to prison following his April 6 guilty plea where he admitted to secretly minting and selling Pearl tokens while not paying income tax on a swathe of profits from the project.
Elmaani admitted that he caused tax losses of over $5.5 million.
“Amir Elmaani violated the duty he owed to pay taxes on millions of dollars of cryptocurrency profits, and he also violated the trust of investors in the cryptocurrency he founded,” said District Attorney Damian Williams in relation to the sentencing.
Between September and October 2017, Elmaani promoted a cryptocurrency called Pearl (PRL), marketed as a way for investors to purchase data on a blockchain-based data storage platform called Oyster Protocol.
However, under the nose of the Oyster Protocol’s team and investors, Elmaani secretly minted a mass of new PRL tokens and dumped them on the market for his own personal gain in October 2018.
“On or about October 29, 2018, I used the smart contract to mint new PRL, without telling anyone, including others who worked on the Oyster Protocol project. I then sold these newly minted PRL on a digital trading platform,” Elmaani admitted in his plea agreement.
“I was aware that the counterparties who were buying these newly-minted PRL likely were not aware of my reopening of the smart contract and did not know that I had just substantially increased the total supply of PRL,” he added.
Despite raking in millions of dollars from the exit scheme, Elmaani filed a tax return in 2017 claiming he had only earned a total of $15,000 from a patent design business and reported zero income to the tax authorities in 2018.
The court found that in 2018, Elmaani spent more than $10 million on multiple yachts, $1.6 million at a carbon-fiber composite company, hundreds of thousands of dollars at home improvement stores and more than $700,000 to purchase two homes.
One home was purchased through a shell company, the other was under the names of two of Elmaani’s associates. He also “dealt substantially” in precious metals and kept gold bars in a safe on one of the yachts he owned.
“In truth, Elmaani did not report or pay tax on any of his cryptocurrency proceeds. At various points, Elmaani used friends and family as nominees to receive cryptocurrency proceeds and transfer them or U.S. currency to his own accounts,” the DoJ said.
In addition to his four-year prison sentence, Elmaani was sentenced to one year of supervised release and was ordered to pay $5.5 million in restitution.
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Bitcoin restarting 2023 uptrend after 26% Uptober BTC price gains — Research
Bitcoin is due to finish 2023 as it started, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said, as October gains near 30%.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released Oct. 24, researchers argued that the past week “sets the foundation” for a BTC price uptrend.
BTC price “convincingly” beats out resistance levels
As it hit $35,200 this week, Bitcoin eclipsed various key trendlines, which had previously acted as support for months.
These included various moving averages (MA), among them the 200-week simple MA at $28,400 — the classic “bear market” support line.
“A cluster of long-term simple moving averages of price are located around $28k, and have provided market resistance through September and October,” Glassnode noted.
“After a month of the market grinding higher, the bulls found sufficient strength this week to convincingly break through the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages.”
In so doing, the profitability of various investor cohorts improved considerably. The so-called cost basis of speculators and market newcomers also lies near $28,000.
“The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis is also now in the rear view mirror at $28k, putting the average recent investor into an average profit of +20%,” “The Week On-Chain” continued.
Researchers uploaded a chart of the short-term holder market-value-to-realized-value (STH-MVRV) ratio, which tracks the profitability of STH coins. They noted that even prior to the October upside, no major capitulatory behavior was visible.
“We can see instances in 2021-22 where STH-MVRV reached relatively deep corrections of -20% or more,” they explained.
“Whilst the August sell-off did reach a low of -10%, it is noteworthy how shallow this MVRV decline is by comparison, suggesting the recent correction found noteworthy support, being a precursor to this week’s rally.”
Bitcoin “sets the foundation” for green year
As reported, the presence of STH entities versus their seasoned counterparts, the long-term holders (LTHs), is now historically low.
Despite facing profitability issues of their own, LTHs now own more than three-quarters of the available BTC supply for the first time.
Their cost basis is lower, further toward $20,000 — and while some believe that Bitcoin could still return to that area, Glassnode is optimistic over how the year will end.
“A meaningful proportion of supply and investors now find themselves above the average break-even price, located around $28k,” it concluded.
“This sets the foundation for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend. At the very least, the market has crossed over several key levels where aggregate investor psychology is likely to be anchored, making the weeks that follow important to keep an eye on.”
Per data from on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass, BTC/USD is currently up 26% this month — by October standards, still relatively modest.
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‘Buy Bitcoin’ search queries on Google surge 826% in the UK
Google searches for “buy Bitcoin” have surged worldwide amid a major crypto rally, with searches in the United Kingdom growing by more than 800% in the last week.
According to research from Cryptogambling.tv, the search term “buy Bitcoin” spiked a staggering 826% in the U.K. over the course of the seven days.
“The remarkable surge in 'buy Bitcoin' searches in the UK, combined with the cryptocurrency's resurgence, underscores the growing interest and potential impact of traditional financial institutions' involvement in the world of digital assets,” said a spokesperson from Cryptogambling.tv.
While users in the U.K. led the pack, there was also a noticeable increase in searches relating to purchasing Bitcoin from web users across the globe.
According to data from Google Trends, searches from users in the United States for “should I buy Bitcoin now?” increased by more than 250% while more niche searches including “can I buy Bitcoin on Fidelity?” increased by over 3,100% in the last week.
Zooming out further, the search term “Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin?” saw a 110% gain worldwide over the last week. In comparison “BlackRock Bitcoin ETF” grew 250%, demonstrating broader enthusiasm for information relating to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which is currently pending approval.
The sudden uptick in interest comes amid a drastic increase in the price of Bitcoin over the past fortnight, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing a value of $35,000 on Oct. 24, the first time since May 2022.
The excitement appears closely linked to the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which many pundits believe will unleash a fresh wave of buying from institutions.
Senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have pinned the probability of an approval at 90% by Jan. 10 next year.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin has gained more than 27% in the past two weeks according to price data from TradingView.
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Bitcoin price model expects $45K ‘phase’ to hit in November
Bitcoin is on track to hit $45,000 in November as part of a classic BTC price cycle, popular analyst CryptoCon said.
In an X thread on Oct. 25, the Bitcoin price model creator turned his attention to one based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
Analyst: $45,000 next month is “possible” for Bitcoin
Bitcoin reaching 17-month highs this week has many market participants expecting a pullback, but CryptoCon believes that plenty of upside potential remains.
Comparing current BTC price behavior to previous cycles, he showed that there is still room for BTC/USD to expand to the highest of the Fibonacci model’s five targets to hit a mid-cycle top.
Four have already been seen, with target four lying around 3.3% above this week’s top at $36,368. In between them are what are called “phases” — and November now marks a deadline for the next to be completed.
“The move to the cycle mid-top usually takes about 2 months after the end of phase 2. Since our first month is about to come to a close in phase 4, the mid-top could be complete as soon as November,” part of the commentary stated.
“Translation: A possible move above 45k by next month.”
Continuing, CryptoCon flagged two key resistance levels for Bitcoin bulls to clear in order for the $45,000 target to become reality.
“Both of these line up at about $36,400,” he noted.
BTC price cycle behavior “completely different”
Updating his own cycle comparison, meanwhile, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital described a “completely different” setup for Bitcoin in 2023.
At this point in its four-year pattern, BTC/USD should be testing support, not resistance, he argued, contrasting the current landscape to that from March 2020.
At the time, the pair put in cycle lows of just above $3,000 as part of a cross-market crash engendered by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Bitcoin is doing something completely different to what it did in 2019 at this same point in the cycle,” he wrote.
In various recent X posts, Rekt Capital added that any significant pullback would represent a significant cycle buying opportunity.
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Why is Ether (ETH) price up today?
Ethereum's native token, Ether, is up today, mirroring gains elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market as investors go bullish on a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S.
On Oct. 25, ETH's price stabilized around $1,800, a psychological resistance level, after rallying nearly 9% this week. The cryptocurrency's upside moves accompanied a rise in daily trading volumes, indicating strong interest in Ether from buyers.
Let's look close at the factors that have driven the price of ETH up in the past few days.
A win for Grayscale's spot Ethereum ETF
On Oct. 24, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged Grayscale Investment's application to convert its Ethereum trust into an ETF.
The commission's move is a response to a direct court order that mandates it to review Grayscale's pending ETF applications. So far, it has not confirmed a spot crypto ETF but has approved similar investment vehicles linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum futures.
However, the market anticipates that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024. Once that happens, many crypto analysts see a spot Ethereum ETF approval on the cards.
Ethereum whale transactions hit 3-month high
The growing ETF buzz coincides with an increase in whale activity across the Ethereum ecosystem.
Notably, the whale transaction count of Ether transactions exceeding $100,000 has jumped 15% in a week to reach its highest level since June, data on Santiment shows. Bitcoin , Cardano , and DAI have witnessed similar growth in whale transactions.
The whale accumulation has accompanied a rise in Ether prices, indicating that most whales have backed the Ethereum rally. Further evidence comes from whales' ETH withdrawals from exchanges, meaning they have the least likelihood of trading the cryptocurrency for other assets in the future.
Short liquidations push ETH price to $1,800
Ethereum's price increase recently has coincided with short liquidations totalling over $70 million in Ether futures contracts. Meanwhile, only about $41 million worth of long positions were liquidated in the same period.
Short sellers were forced to close their positions by purchasing futures contracts at any price, leading to a price rise above $1,850 on Oct. 24.
Ultimately, Ethereum bulls have reasons to feel more optimistic as hopes for new avenues of investment through traditional stock market brokers are emerging.
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‘This is the trigger’ — Arthur Hayes says it’s time to bet on Bitcoin
Bitcoin faces a “trigger” moment that keeps a $1-million BTC price tag in play, one of its household names says.
In a blog post titled “The Periphery” released on Oct. 24, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, said that Bitcoin is already warning markets about the future.
“Global wartime inflation” to drive Bitcoin and gold price
With the United States increasingly invested in two new wars, the risk of escalation worldwide is growing, Hayes believes.
The timing is conspicuous — the United States Federal Reserve faces persisting inflation but has halted interest rate hikes, while a so-called “bear steepener” looms for the economy.
“The structural hedging needs of banks and the borrowing needs of the US war machine reflexively feed on one another in the US Treasury market,” he wrote.
“If long-term US Treasury bonds offer no safety for investors, then their money will seek out alternatives. Gold, and most importantly, Bitcoin, will begin rising on true fears of global wartime inflation.”
The writing is already on the wall. BTC/USD is up 15% this week, and the gains followed U.S. President Joe Biden’s address to the nation on the Ukraine and Israel wars.
Now, the blog post reiterates, “Directly after the Biden speech, Bitcoin — along with gold — is rallying against a backdrop of an aggressive selloff in long-end US Treasuries.”
“This isn’t speculation as to an ETF being approved — this is Bitcoin discounting a future, very inflationary global world war situation,” it continues.
Hayes is well known for his predictions of how global economics will play out post-COVID-19 and subsequent inflationary eras.
As part of the knock-on effects for Bitcoin, a $1-million BTC price tag is in play — something repeated on social media this week. This will come as a result of so-called yield curve control (YCC), the ultimate move in controlled economics already beginning to rear its head in Japan.
“And the end game, when yields get too high, is for the Fed to end all pretence that the US Treasury market is a free market. Rather, it will become what it truly is: a Potemkin village where the Fed fixes the level of interest at politically expedient levels,” “The Periphery,” meanwhile, concludes.
“Once everyone realises the game we are playing, the Bitcoin and crypto bull market will be in full swing. This is the trigger, and it’s time to start rotating out of short-term US Treasury bills and into crypto.”
Dalio warns of “very costly” choices
As reported, macro concerns are becoming ever more vocal this quarter thanks to the increasing presence of war.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently put the odds of a “World War III” scenario developing at 50%.
“I hope that the leaders of the great powers will wisely step back from the brink, even while they must prepare to be strong enough to successfully fight and win a hot war,” he wrote in a LinkedIn post on Oct. 12.
“In my opinion, for this to go well not only will the restraint of the participants be tested, but alliances that are prone to draw in non-fighting parties will also be tested. That is because being allied and helpful to the allied countries in these brutal wars is always very costly and raises the risks of being drawn fully into the war. That’s how local wars spread into world wars.”
Combined with buzz over an exchange-traded fund approval, Bitcoin is up 27% this October and over 100% year-to-date, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
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Galaxy predicts 74% Bitcoin price increase first year after ETF launch
Bitcoin’s price will increase 74.1% in the first year after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are launched in the United States, according to estimates from crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital.
In an Oct. 24 blog post, Galaxy Digital research associate Charles Yu estimated the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs would be $14.4 trillion in the first year after launch. He obtained the 74% figure by assessing the potential price impact of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF products using gold ETFs as a baseline.
According to Yu’s estimates, Bitcoin’s price would increase 6.2% in the first month after an ETF launch before steadily trending downward to a 3.7% monthly increase by month 12.
Yu used Bitcoin price data from Sept. 30, but a 74.1% increase in Bitcoin’s current price would see it hit $59,200.
Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services firm Matrixport reached a similar figure in an Oct. 19 post, estimating Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.
Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market size to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third year.
Yu acknowledged a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would impact its price prediction.
However, he said the estimates were still conservative and didn’t factor in “second-order effects” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
“In the near-term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the U.S. in approving + offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors,” Yu wrote.
He added “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term.”
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Terra Founder Do Kwon’s Extradition Approved by Montenegrin Court – Here’s the Latest
A court in Montenegro’s capital, Podgorica, has approved the extradition of Do Kwon, the founder of Terra, to either South Korea or the United States.
According to a recent update on the judiciary’s website, the final decision on the country of extradition will be taken by the Montenegrin Justice Minister.
However, before the extradition process takes place, Kwon will serve a four-month prison sentence in Montenegro for the crime of document forgery.
Kwon’s arrest took place in March at Podgorica’s airport, where he was apprehended with falsified documents.
Kwon’s legal troubles extend beyond Montenegro.
In addition to the charges of document falsification, he faces multiple counts of fraud levied by U.S. federal prosecutors.
US prosecutors have claimed that Kwon made a series of false and misleading statements during a TV interview about the extent to which the Terra blockchain had been adopted by users.
The disgraced crypto boss also made a series of purportedly misleading statements about the effectiveness of the TerraClassicUSD stablecoin to keep its peg with the US dollar, as well as Kwon’s alleged involvement in trading strategies that were designed to alter the market price of assets.
Furthermore, he is also dealing with civil charges in the U.S., as well as an ongoing investigation in South Korea related to the collapse of TerraUSD last year.
Just recently, the Montenegro High Court upheld the four-month prison sentence for Kwon and his associate Han Chang-Joon.
The court rejected their appeal, deeming the sentence appropriate. After serving his sentence in Montenegro, Kwon faces the possibility of extradition to either South Korea or the U.S.
Terra Co-Founder Indicted in South Korea
In a separate but related development, Daniel Shin, co-founder of Terraform Labs, was indicted in South Korea for violations of capital markets laws.
Prosecutors have frozen $185 million in assets.
Shin, however, has denied any involvement in the collapse of the company, stating that he left two years prior to the incident.
Shin is the founder of Chai, which established a business partnership with Terra.
He has claimed the partnership discontinued in 2020, but a 2022 interview on a YouTube channel showed Shin explaining that Chai products could be “topped up” at Terra “stations” – an indication that the partnership was still live in early 2022.
The video in question was posted three weeks prior to the Terra ecosystem crash.
Shin maintained that the video and its contents were misinterpreted, and his legal team clarified in a statement to SBS that Shin “has not participated in Terra’s management since parting ways with Kwon” in 2020.
His team further added that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had issued charges against Kwon.
However, the team noted that charges made no mention of Shin, an indication that the SEC did not think he was connected with fraud or securities-related violations.
Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD used a mix of algorithms and trader incentives involving a sister token, Luna, to maintain its $1 peg.
However, the stablecoin lost its dollar peg in May last year after a wave of sell-offs hit the crypto market.
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Bitcoin to $1M post-ETF approval? BTC price predictions diverge wildly
Bitcoin may not see a $40,000 BTC price reclaim despite increasing excitement over a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
In recent analysis, crypto market participants have started to reconsider just how bullish the ETF narrative really is for BTC price action.
Trader: "Not sure" BTC price will reach $42,000
The dust continues to settle on the U.S. versus Binance regulatory bombshell, which is thought to involve a $4.3 billion fine and the removal of Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, as CEO.
Bitcoin sank to one-week lows on the news, but a swift rebound took it back to near 18-month highs with the following 24 hours.
At the same time, commentators began to suggest that the enforcement action was a timely move to pave the way for the first U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF.
Long expected to form a watershed moment for crypto, the approval — while far from guaranteed — is slated to come in early January 2024.
Nonetheless, not everyone sees a snap BTC price parabolic reaction coming as a result. Among them is popular trader Bitcoin Jack, who in a recent X post cast doubt on BTC/USD even hitting $42,000.
“I said 42k. Not sure we get there anymore,” he summarized on Nov. 21.
Bitcoin Jack explained that the week’s Binance and ETF news stories had failed to reshape market dynamics.
“Expected any rumour on a Binance vs US resolution to be more bullish than price reflects (reasons: positive for ETF, less uncertainty for investors if there is a resolution), on top of the generally bullish headlines last weeks (minus Kraken, though much of it is more of the same earlier crackdown language recycled),” he continued.
Introducing potential downside targets, he noted that while support levels are “clean,” $30,000 may yet come back into play.
“Sometimes that what doesn’t happen is the tell,” he concluded.
“HTF supports below are clean buy level if it comes. Potential top here or another leg to 42, support around 29-31.”
One Bitcoin spot ETF, $1 million BTC?
As reported, other recent forecasts are maintaining the low $30,000s as a retracement zone, in part thanks to liquidity which remains there.
In his most recent social media survey, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, discovered almost a 50/50 split between respondents on whether Bitcoin would hit $40,000 or $33,000 first.
At the opposite extreme on the ETF issue, meanwhile, is Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm JAN3.
In an X post on Nov. 23, he suggested that Bitcoin could not only hit $1,000,000 per coin as a result of the approval, but that hodlers were mistaken in predicting any less.
“It has come to my attention that there are some Bitcoiners that don’t think Bitcoin can reach $1,000,000 in a matter of days/weeks after ETF money starts to flow in,” he wrote.
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CZ an ‘unacceptable risk of flight,’ should stay in US: DOJ
United States government prosecutors are trying to stop former Binance boss Changpeng “CZ” Zhao from leaving the country, expressing concern about his potential flight risk.
In a Nov. 22 filing to a Seattle federal court, U.S. prosecutors requested a review and overturn of a judge’s decision that would allow Zhao to return to his home in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on a $175-million bond under the condition he returns to the U.S. two weeks before his February 2024 sentencing.
In a proposed order, U.S. prosecutors wrote that Zhao “presents an unacceptable risk of flight and nonappearance if he is allowed to leave the United States pending sentencing.”
In an accompanying letter, prosecutors said if Zhao decided not to come back to the U.S., the government “would not be able to secure his return.”
In its argument, the government pointed to Zhao’s ties and favored status in the UAE, along with the country’s lack of an extradition treaty with the U.S., as reasons to block him from leaving the country.
“He has three young children and a partner in the UAE; once in the UAE and faced with the prospect of traveling back to the United States to face up to 18 months in prison, he may elect to instead simply stay in the UAE with his family.”
Prosecutors said Zhao could live on his wealth in the UAE indefinitely, as a vast majority of it is held overseas away from U.S. jurisdiction.
The government also argued Zhao’s bond was inadequate as a majority of the $175 million used to secure his release was outside the reach of the United States.
Zhao recently confessed to failing to maintain an effective Anti-Money Laundering program at Binance, and part of his plea agreement saw him step down as CEO of the exchange and pay a $50-million fine.
Industry experts and observers have argued that Binance’s settlement with the Justice Department is a positive outcome for the crypto industry, further legitimizing it in the United States.
Additionally, crypto markets have already rebounded from the bad news regarding one of the industry’s most enigmatic and influential players.
The total market capitalization has already returned to pre-Binance news levels, hitting $1.48 trillion during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.
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Bitcoin stalls below $38K as analysis hints 'Notorious B.I.D.' is back
Bitcoin sought to rematch 18-month highs into Nov. 21 as order book activity gave one analyst a sense of deja-vu.
Whale games conjure Bitcoin's Q1 2023
Data showed BTC price momentum building to top out at $37,770 the day prior.
Now circling $37,400, Bitcoin remained in a range, which had also characterized the second week of the month.
For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, however, the market was more akin to Q1 this year — the period which marked the start of Bitcoin’s recovery from post-FTX lows.
Analyzing order book data, it suggested that a major liquidity provider which it informally calledthe “Notorious B.I.D.” at the time could be shaping bid support once again.
Specifically, bid liquidity had come and gone at $33,000 “7 times in the last 30 days,” it told X subscribers.
“I can't confirm whether this is the entity I named Notorious B.I.D. back in Q1, but I can tell you we've seen this game played before.”
An accompanying snapshot of BTC/USDT liquidity also showed sellers lining up at and immediately below $38,000.
Among whales, it was the largest order class — between $1 million and $10 million — which was the only active cohort, with others unanimously decreasing exposure through the week.
Commenting on the situation, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan argued that the entities behind the buy orders could be more organized than merely large-volume speculators.
"Swift breakdown" could follow tap of $40,000
Forecasting what could come next, meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, refused to take $40,000 off the table.
“Bitcoin continues to push higher and higher. Making higher lows, and attacking the resistance for the fourth time,” he commented on overnight events.
“Wouldn't be surprised with a breakout upwards to $40K and then a swift breakdown again. Keep on buying the dips!”
Popular analyst Matthew Hyland cautioned that relative strength index (RSI) could be at risk of printing a bearish divergence with price should the latter fail to pass current 18-month highs just below $38,000.
At the time of writing, bulls were still unable to summon the required momentum.
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BNB pops after report that DOJ wants $4B settlement with Binance
BNB has gained over 7% in the last day after Bloomberg reported that the United States Department of Justice is contemplating a $4 billion settlement with Binance to resolve its investigation into the company.
BNB spiked 6% to $262 in around 30 minutes after Bloomberg’s Nov. 20 report, which said Binance was negotiating an agreement to resolve a DOJ probe into alleged sanctions violations, money laundering and fraud.
BNB dropped to $252 around four hours later but notched a second spike to $266 — its highest price since June 7 — two days after the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Binance and CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao alleging they violated various securities laws.
The Binance-issued token has the highest 24-hour price increase among the 75 largest cryptocurrencies by market cap. BNB is currently the fourth largest token with a market cap of over $40 billion.
Despite the recent price pump, BNB is down 61.4% from its May 10, 2021, all-time high of $686 but has gained 6.5% year-to-date.
One settlement scenario sees Binance pay the 10-figure fine and be allowed to keep operating in the U.S. in compliance with certain conditions.
An announcement of a potential agreement could come as soon as the end of the month, Bloomberg reported.
If Binance pays up, it will be one of the largest penalties ever paid in a criminal cryptocurrency case.
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Crypto community begins Bitcoin halving countdown as milestone date nears
The crypto community and many of its most high-profile players have started to shift their focus toward the Bitcoin halving, a 4-year cyclic event that cuts the Bitcoin market supply in half. With the next halving event scheduled for April 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward will reduce from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao took to Twitter to set the countdown for the next halving in an X (formerly Twitter) post to remind everyone that the next BTC halving event is only 135 days away.
Historically, Bitcoin halving is also linked to bullish momentum in BTC price owing to the supply-demand dynamics where the halving of the supply amid growing demand pushes the BTC price to new highs just around the halving time.
During the last bull cycle, which started in 2020 with the halving in May 2020, the BTC price traded under $10,000 almost two months before the halving period. However, the pre-halving bullish momentum saw BTC price surpass the previous cycle’s all-time high of around $17,000. After halving, the BTC price broke into parabolic momentum and touched a new all-time high of over $69,0000.
The technical analysts with the 'X' profile name 'Rekt Capital' also took to Twitter to elaborate on the different phases of a BTC bull cycle. The analysts divided the timeline into pre-halving and post-halving events, where they pointed out that approximately 60 days before the halving, a pre-halving rally tends to occur as investors tend to "Buy the Hype" to "Sell the News.”
However, this euphoric price surge in the pre-halving period is followed by a retrace around the time of the actual halving. In 2016, the pre-halving retrace was -38% while this pre-halving retrace was -20%.
The pre-halving retrace is followed by a multi-month re-accumulation phase when the BTC price starts to accumulate further. Many investors get shaken out in this stage due to boredom, impatience and disappointment with the lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the halving.
The accumulation phase is followed by the parabolic surge, in which Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area to touch new highs. During this phase, Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new all time highs.
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Solana gains 80% in a month as Firedancer goes live on testnet
Solana has posted 30-day gains of nearly 81%, and has rallied over 30% in the past week amid the testnet launch of the blockchain’s loawaited scaling solution Firedancer.
SOL reached over $41 on Nov. 2 touching highs it hasn’t seen since August last year, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.
Long touted as an “Ethereum killer” — SOL has vastly outperformed its rival Ether which posted under 11% gains in the past month.
SOL-related investment products have also seen millions of dollars worth of inflows over the past weeks according to CoinShares. SOL is, however, still down around 84% from its Nov. 6, 2021, all-time high of almost $260.
On Oct. 31 at Solana’s Breakpoint conference, Solana Foundation executive director Dan Albert announced the testnet launch of Firedancer which Web3 development firm Jump Crypto has been building since last August.
Firedancer is a new validator client for the network which Solana Labs founder and CEO Anatoly Yakovenko has said is aimed at increasing speed, reliability and validator diversity. Its slated mainnet launch is in the first half of 2024.
Firedancer has been dubbed the long-term fix to Solana’s past network outage problems which Yakovenko called a “curse.”
Solana suffered 14 partial or major outages in 2022 but its uptime improved in 2023 with only one major outage, reported in February.
However, there are concerns that selling pressure could hit SOL as $56 million worth of the cryptocurrency tied to FTX was unstaked and sentto an unknown wallet. An additional $32 million worth of SOL linked to FTX and Alameda Research also moved to a wallet suspected to be the firms’ designated liquidator Galaxy Digital.
Other altcoins also saw strong price rallies over the month as crypto market sentiment turned positive. On Nov. 2 the Crypto Fear and Greed Index jumped six points from the day before to 72 out of 100 — reflecting a sentiment of “greed.”
Chainlink saw an over 54% gain in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Avalanche and Near Protocol posted 30-day gains of 30%, 32% and 37.5% respectively.
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VanEck predicts a 10,600% Solana price rally by 2030
Layer-1 blockchain and Ethereum competitor Solana has seen its native SOL token surge above $32 this week, as asset management company VanEck anticipates further price gains and shares its price forecast.
In a report, VanEck outlined diverse valuation scenarios for Solana’s price to range from a conservative $9.81 to an ambitious $3,211.28 by 2030 (in comparison, Ethereum’s target price is $11,800).
This would mark a 10,600% price surge for Solana in the coming years. The report also delves into a potential scenario where Solana becomes the first blockchain to accommodate applications with over 100 million users.
Furthermore, the report illustrates Solana’s potential to narrow the distance between itself and Ethereum in the future. VanEck has been engaged in the cryptocurrency arena for a while, having submitted Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission in recent years.
SOL has emerged as a top 10 cryptocurrency, with impressive growth exceeding 200% since the start of 2023. The total value locked in the Solana ecosystem is $378 million.
However, there might be potential for a partial pullback in the price of SOL. The daily directional movement index (DMI) indicates an increasing hold by bears on the daily chart, requiring strong action from the bulls to safeguard the gains amassed since the crypto market aligned with Bitcoin’s rise to $35,000 in recent days.
If the bulls fail to gain the upper hand, it could lead to a drop below the $30 mark. Traders considering short positions for SOL may consider selling. This is influenced by technical indicators, where the blue line (+DI) is decreasing and the red line (-DI) is increasing, which are signals of a potential price decline.
This pattern indicates a heightened bearish impact and the possibility of a market downturn, which could result in a 15% decrease in Solana’s price from its current valuation of $32. This aligns with a nearby support level bolstered by the 21-day exponential moving average.
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Bitcoin price hits all-time highs across Argentina, Nigeria and Turkey
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has notched new all-time highs against some of the world’s most inflationary fiat currencies.
Across 30 hours over Oct. 23 to 24, the cost of buying one Bitcoin has reached all time-highs when using the Argentine peso, Nigerian naira, Turkish lira, Laotian kip and the Egyptian pound.
However, it should be noted that the result is due to the ongoing devaluation of the currencies, exacerbated by Bitcoin’s recent 16% price increase.
The naira and lira fell to their lowest points against the United States dollar on Oct. 24 and Oct. 25, while the peso is only 0.85% off its all-time low (against the U.S. dollar).
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Venezuelan bolivar currently has the highest annual inflation rate at 360%, followed by the Zimbabwean dollar (314%), Sudanese pound (256%) and the Argentine oesi (122%).
The Turkish lira and Nigerian naira came in sixth and 15th with annual inflation rates of 51% and 25%, respectively, IMF’s data shows.
Crypto observers have long seen digital assets, such as Bitcoin and stablecoins, as a hedge against rocketing inflation — and recent figures could bolster that narrative.
Nigeria, Turkey and Argentina boast the second, 12th and 15th highest rates of cryptocurrency adoption worldwide, according to a Sept. 12 report by Chainalysis.
However, the governments of these countries haven’t always seen eye-to-eye with the cryptocurrency industry.
Nigeria is finally becoming more welcoming to cryptocurrencies after its central bank banned local banks from providing services to cryptocurrency exchanges in February 2021.
Progress was made in December 2022 when Nigeria announced its intention to pass a bill recognizing cryptocurrencies as “capital for investment,” citing the need to keep up with “global practices” as one of the main reasons behind its change in stance.
And while Turkey is home to some of the most crypto-curious people, its central bank banned cryptocurrency payments for goods and services in April 2021. It has also been working on a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to digitalize the Turkish lira in recent years.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s inflation crisis could be influenced by the outcome of its presidential election in November, with presidential candidate Javier Milei set to face competitor Sergi Massa in a final run-off vote on Nov. 19.
Massa, who currently serves as the country’s minister of economy, wants Argentina to launch a CBDC “as soon as possible” to “solve” the country’s long-lasting inflation crisis.
He has also voiced an intention to keep the U.S. dollar away from Argentinians, explaining that Argentinians should instead be “patriots” and defend the Argentine peso.
Milei, on the other hand, wants the U.S. dollar to be adopted in addition to abolishing Argentina’s central bank.
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Pro-Ripple lawyer predicts prolonged legal battle, hints at settlement factors
Pro-Ripple lawyer John Deaton said he expects a lengthy legal process in the United States Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) vs. Ripple case — possibly lasting a year. Deaton suggested that a settlement may only be considered if Coinbase’s motion to dismiss the SEC’s case against it is successful.
In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), Deaton discussed the lack of serious settlement talks between Ripple, its executives and the SEC. He mentioned the SEC’s desire for a $770 million penalty and explained the complexities of the penalty phase involving various legal processes. He said:
“I do not believe there has been a single serious conversation regarding a settlement between Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse, Chris Larsen and the SEC. The SEC is pissed and embarrassed and wants $770M worth of flesh”
He explained that the penalty phase is a detailed process, akin to a second legal case, involving depositions, document requests, emails, financial records, contracts and on-demand liquidity (ODL) transactions. Deaton suggests that Ripple might aim to reduce the $770 million penalty by excluding ODL transactions and cutting down on additional expenses. He points to the LBRY case, where the SEC initially pursued $23 million but, after eight months of litigation, settled on a $130,000 fine.
Creating a timeframe, Deaton stated:
“I don’t expect a final judgment, issued by Judge Torres, until late summer, at the earliest. It literally could take a full year before an appeal is filed in this case.“
Deaton connected Ripple’s case outcome with the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase, stating that if the exchange succeeds in its motion to dismiss, the SEC may shift its stance on cryptocurrencies and consider a settlement with Ripple. However, if Coinbase’s motion fails, he foresees no settlement.
The oral argument for Coinbase’s motion is scheduled for Jan. 17, 2024, with a decision likely to follow within 60–120 days. Ripple is expected to face considerable legal costs during this period as it attempts to reduce the $770 million penalty.
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Peter Brandt says Bitcoin bottom is in, but prepare for a 'chopfest'
Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs by the end of next year, but crypto investors should brace themselves for a “chopfest” in the meantime, according to veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt.
In an Oct. 26 post on X (formerly Twitter), Brandt told his 660,000 followers that Bitcoin had likely already bottomed in Nov. 2022 and that the cryptocurrency is on track to notch new highs by the third quarter of 2024.
Anyone who declares they know the future path of any market is a fool. Markets will ALWAYS surprise.
Still, Brandt erred slightly on the side of caution with a disclaimer, saying that the future is never certain and that markets will “always” surprise.
When an X user asked Brandt for his thoughts on Chainlink, he didn’t mince words with his response:
“I stick with BTC and don’t get distracted by pretenders.”
Brandt — who has been a proprietary trader since 1975 — explained that he’d been using the aforementioned blueprint for nearly two years.
He added in a later post that his favorite chart for Bitcoin price movement is the weekly Renko graph, which — in his view — alleviates many “fake moves” and had only delivered five miscues in the past five years.
After months of largely sideways price action, Bitcoin recently experienced significant upwards price momentum. Many have tipped Bitcoin’s outsized performance in recent months due to participants watching closely as spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) inch closer to potential approval.
On Oct. 23, Bitcoin staged its largest single day rally in over a year, briefly surging over the $35,000 mark as traders frenzied over reports that Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF — IBTC — had been listed on the DTCC website.
While a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is in no way guaranteed, leading Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas say that an approval grows more likely, predicting a 90% chance of an approval by Jan. 10, 2024.
Meanwhile, a senior executive from global consulting firm Ernst & Young, Paul Brody says there is massive institutional interest for Bitcoinsitting on the sidelines, awaiting a spot ETF approval as a trigger to buy in.
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Shiba Inu Price Prediction as SHIB Hints at Potential Upward Explosion – Are Bulls Taking Over?
The price of Shiba Inu (SHIB) has dropped by 2% today, falling to $0.00000742 as the wider market slips by 1% in the past 24 hours.
Despite today’s loss, SHIB remains up by 7.5% in a week, helped along by growing expectations of Bitcoin ETF approvals, which this week have lifted the market as a whole.
Yet SHIB is up by only 2% in a month and is actually down by 8% since the beginning of the year, which has seen the meme token underperform despite positive news, including the launch of layer-two network Shibarium.
However, this underperformance arguably sets SHIB up nicely for a big bounce back in the coming weeks, with the meme coin potentially on course to have a strong end to the year.
Shiba Inu Price Prediction as SHIB Hints at Potential Upward Explosion – Are Bulls Taking Over?
Having spent the past few weeks and months being oversold, SHIB is now in a great position for a very strong rebound, as highlighted by its rally of the past couple of days.
Its relative strength index (purple) has risen from 40 a week ago to around 60 today, indicating steadily rising momentum that still has plenty of room to intensify further before the meme token becomes overbought.
Likewise, SHIB’s 30-day exponential moving average (yellow) has very recently stopped falling further below its 200-day average (blue), with the implication being that it may have just begun the long process of rising towards the longer term average.
This would signal sustained increases over the coming days, and while SHIB’s medium-term support level (green) has declined consistently since the middle of August, the meme coin may consolidate the gains of the past few days into a higher base level.
As such, now may be one of the best times in recent weeks to buy SHIB, in that the latter remains highly undervalued but is finally starting to regain some real momentum.
Such momentum is also indicated by the coin’s 24-hour trading volume, which has risen from $60 million to $300 million in the past week or so.
It’s also worth pointing out that the past few days have witnessed a number of large SHIB transactions, potentially representing over-the-counter sales between whales.
Regardless of the specific nature of this transactions, their occurrence is another indication that the market is becoming increasingly interested in SHIB once again, with the meme coin potentially set to see further rallies in the very near future.
And in terms of fundamentals, SHIB is arguably in a much better position than Dogecoin, for instance, given that the summer’s launch of Shibarium is likely to result in growth for the Shiba Inu ecosystem in the long term.
Indeed, the layer-two network has now processing over 30,000 transactions per day, indicating steadily rising adoption.
Based on all this, SHIB can be expected to return to $0.000010 in the next few weeks, with a strong end to 2023 possibly taking it as high as $0.000020.
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Crypto market sentiment at highest point since BTC’s $69K all-time high
Bitcoin market sentiment has returned to levels not seen since its price reached $69,000 in mid-November 2021, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
The index is now at 72 out of a total possible score of 100, placing it within the “greed” ranking — a six-point increase from Oct. 24 and a 16-point bounce from its 50-point “neutral” rank on Oct. 18.
The strengthening market sentiment follows a wave of excitement that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoinexchange-traded fund (ETF) could be inching toward approval by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
On Oct. 24, Bitcoin staged its largest single-day rally in over a year, recording a 14% daily gain as its price briefly moved above the $35,000 mark.
The index gathers and weighs data from six market key performance indicators — volatility (25%), market momentum and volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%), Bitcoin’s dominance (10%) and trends (10%) — to score market sentiment each day.
Nov. 14, 2021, was the last time the index reached a score of 72, just four days after BTC notched its all-time high of $69,044 on Nov. 10, 2021, according to CoinGecko data.
The index recorded its lowest-ever score of 7 on June 16, 2022, after the collapse of Do Kwon’s Terra ecosystem.
The fallout from the Terra collapse triggered a cascade of price-dampening effects, which later claimed hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and crypto lender Voyager Digital as casualties, among others.
Following the wave of excitement for spot ETFs, crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could increase by more than 74% in the first year following a successful approval.
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Bitcoin price surge brings BTC-related stocks to new multi-week highs
The Bitcoin price surge on Monday has now catapulted Bitcoin-related stocks to surge to new highs with the likes of Coinbase and Microstrategy posting new multi-week highs.
Bitcoin mining stocks saw significant gains amid the BTC price momentum with the likes of United States-listed Riot Blockchain recording an 11.69% surge followed by Marathon Digital Holdings at a 14.6% increase. Another factor that played a key role in the mining stocks surge is the upcoming halving event that will cut the Bitcoin mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
Bitcoin mining stocks not only outperformed Bitcoin in terms of daily price rally but also in terms of year-to-date gains. Cipher Mining Inc. has seen an increase of 356% YTD compared to Bitcoin’s 86% YTD gains. Similarly, Riot Platforms has registered a 163.10% YTD growth whereas Northern Data AG, a GPU miner with headquarters in Frankfurt, has grown by 291.40%. Hut 8 Mining Corp, Iris Energy, Bitfarms, Marathon Digital and Hive Technologies have all registered more than 100% growth this year.
Apart from public Bitcoin mining companies, other Bitcoin-centred public firms such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy also posted multi-week highs. Coinbase’s stocks were up by 3.42% at publishing time while the largest Bitcoin-holding public firm MicroStrategy recorded a 9% surge on the daily charts.
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoins holding is back in the green for the third time this year. The profit on BTC holdings comes after being down as much as -50% during the bear market. MicroStrategy currently holds 158,245 BTC bought at an investment of $4.68 billion at an average price of $29,582. The public company’s investment is currently worth $5.5 billion, leading to nearly $1 billion in unrealized gains.
The Bitcoin price breached the $35,000 mark on Oct. 23 with a double-digit surge taking the price to a one-year high before retracing below $33,000. Earlier today, BTC price surged another 5% and currently trading above $34,500.
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