Bitcoin ETF hype fails to shake bearish $20K BTC price targets
Bitcoin marched to 17-month highs on Oct. 24 as exchange-traded fund (ETF) excitement boosted already bullish BTC price action.
Bitcoin ETF data listing hints at “time to shine”
Data showed BTC/USD hitting $35,198 on Bitstamp before consolidating.
This represented 17% gains since the prior weekly close and Bitcoin’s highest levels since May 2022.
While back below $34,000 at the time of writing, the mood around the largest cryptocurrency was distinctly optimistic as debate swirled over the potential launch of a Bitcoin spot price ETF in the United States.
Long in the making, appetite for a launch — held back for years by U.S. regulators — was palpable after data for the iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF appeared on the website of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, or DTCC, responsible for clearing Nasdaq trades.
While no official green light has yet been given, the event is increasingly viewed as a matter of time.
As part of the response, public Bitcoin ETFs worldwide saw the equivalent of 10% of the year-to-date total in inflows over a single 24-hour period, per data from Bloomberg.
“An SEC approval of the ETF would likely mean that many other Bitcoin ETF approvals are coming,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter, meanwhile, wrote in part of its own coverage.
Kobeissi noted that with the latest move, BTC/USD was up 107% year-to-date, adding $300 billion in market cap.
“As geopolitical tensions worsen, Bitcoin is also being viewed as a safe haven asset,” it concluded.
“Is Bitcoin finally getting its time to shine?”
BTC price taps last upside CME futures gap
Considering the prospects for BTC price going forward, a curious disconnect was apparent between traders and market trajectory.
Despite the highs, popular market participants on social media were highly cautious — and some conspicuously bearish.
Among them was popular trading account Ninja, which warned that no further CME Group Bitcoin futures gaps remained above spot price — only below.
As reported previously, $20,000 still constitutes a popular downside target, an important psychological boundary, as well as being home to a CME gap.
Meanwhile, others took profit, including analysts and Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
“This recent price movement reflects the agony of those who HAD to buy, and I’m taking this opportunity to offload my holdings,” he wrote in part of an X post.
Trader Skew covered order book changes on the way up, with market makers (MMs) selling into buyers.
“If BTC moves into the mid 30K’s, we have officially front run the ETF approval and I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes a sell the news event,” fellow trader and analyst Crypto Chase continued.
“Perhaps not the day of the announcement, but not too far after all the participants who waited for the official announcement pile in.”
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, appeared to doubt the idea that the latest gains differed in character from other bouts of upside in 2023.
In accompanying X comments, he suggested that Q1 2024 could see Bitcoin “nuke” lower, based on the timing of previous price cycles.
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Crypto traders urge caution as Bitcoin price hits 3-month high near $31K
Bitcoin hit new three-month highs on Oct. 23 as the week’s first Asia trading session produced snap gains.
Bitcoin bulls face crunch BTC price resistance
Data showed BTC price adding momentum to reach $30,944 on Bitstamp.
The largest cryptocurrency saw its first weekly close above $30,000 since the summer, going on to tackle levels closer to key long-term resistance. This included the 2023 high, currently at $31,800.
“Bitcoin is back at key resistance for the third time in 6 months,” popular trader Jelle responded in one of the day’s X posts.
“Time to be cautious, but I don't think you want to be bearish here just because we're reaching resistance. The level will eventually give in -- and the move will be explosive. Tick... Tock…”
Analyst Matthew Hyland suggested that Bitcoin had been already primed for another move higher, with the market showing similarities to just before the year-to-date high.
Following action on exchanges, fellow trader Skew noted short squeezes underway.
“Price testing key HTF resistance area again,” another X entry stated, referencing high-timeframe (HTF) levels.
“However if price pulls back will be looking for continuation signals around $29.5K - $28.7K area.”
Altcoins catch a break
Elsewhere, research firm Santiment spied a new crypto market setup accompanying Bitcoin’s latest gains.
Altcoins, it noted, were moving higher in step — a phenomenon not seen during recent prior taps of $30,000.
“Altcoin positions continue to print money,” Jelle wrote in part of a cross-crypto update, arguing that while caution was warranted, “not many people are ready for whats going to happen in the next months.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was continuing to pressure $31,000, with around six hours until the Wall Street open.
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Lightning Network faces criticism from pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton
Lawyer and cryptocurrency supporter John Deaton has criticized the Lightning Network, deeming it less effective than the “Spend The Bits” protocol on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Lightning is a layer-2 scaling solution for Bitcoin. It is designed to improve the scalability and efficiency of Bitcoin transactions by enabling off-chain, peer-to-peer transactions.
In an Oct. 21 X (formerly Twitter) post, Deaton revealed he is an angel investor in Spend the Bits, as well as its chief legal officer.
Deaton previously touted Spend The Bits as an alternative to Lightning on the Bitcoin blockchain. In September, the pro-XRP attorney commended the protocol, characterizing it as a more secure method for using your Bitcoin than Lightning.
Deaton’s Saturday disclosure was well-timed, aligning with an X post from the online crypto investigator WhaleWire. This tweet raised concerns about a recent discovery in Lightning indicating a significant security vulnerability that prompted a developer to withdraw from the project.
The developer alleged the presence of deliberate vulnerabilities in the Lightning Network’s code, which could potentially provide attackers with complete network control. Major backers of the Lightning Network are also involved in Tether, Bitfinex and BlockStream. This claim has raised questions about Lightning’s security and trustworthiness.
At the time of writing, the Lightning Network has a network capacity of 5,338 BTC, according to 1ML. This has sparked doubts regarding the network’s resilience and long-term viability, with the payment protocol having seen a 15% reduction in capacity over the past three months.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Leaps toward $30,000 – Is The Bull Market Starting?
The current price of Bitcoin today is a remarkable $29,599, reflecting a 3% increase in the past 24 hours.
A robust 24-hour trading activity is recorded at approximately $21.8 billion on the volume front.
As for its standing in the vast crypto arena, Bitcoin retains its crown with a #1 ranking on CoinMarketCap.
The digital currency's market capitalization is nothing short of impressive at roughly $577.76 billion.
The circulating reservoir of BTC coins is about 19.52 million, marching gradually towards its maximum supply limit of 21 million.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Delving into Bitcoin's technicals, the pivot point is identified at $29,188, with the immediate resistance level at $30,282. Further resistances are seen at $31,078 and $31,820.
On the downside, Bitcoin finds its immediate support at $28,195, with subsequent supports stationed at $27,287 and $26,554.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool to gauge momentum, is currently valued at 74. Traditionally, an RSI reading above 70 indicates overbought conditions, hinting at a potential cooling-off period soon.
Conversely, an RSI above 50 typically implies bullish sentiment, which Bitcoin is currently exuding.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is another pivotal technical indicator clocked at $29,188. Bitcoin's price trajectory above this level suggests a bullish inclination in the short term, with the EMA serving as dynamic support.
On the chart patterns front, the notable appearance of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern on a 4-hour timeframe gives weight to bullish sentiments.
This pattern, often seen as a bullish reversal signal following a downtrend, points towards sustained bullish momentum, especially if Bitcoin can consistently hold above the $29,188 mark.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's current trajectory and technical indicators lean predominantly bullish. The immediate future might see the cryptocurrency testing its resistance at $30,282.
However, the overbought status signalled by the RSI calls for some caution among traders.
Potential minor bearish corrections could be on the horizon before Bitcoin makes its next significant leap.
As always, in the unpredictable realm of cryptocurrency, investors are advised to stay informed, adaptive, and prepared for potential market volatility.
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Hodling hard: Bitcoin’s long-term investors own over 76% of all BTC for the first time
Bitcoin is becoming scarcer than ever — whether you are a BTC price speculator or new to the market.
The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows a record portion of the available BTC supply is locked up in long-term storage.
Bitcoin long-term holder presence beats all-time highs
At more than 76%, Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) control more of the BTC supply than at any point in history.
Despite the supply increasing with every block, in percentage terms, the low-time preference Bitcoin investor cohort has a record market presence.
As noted by Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, the achievement marks a first in Bitcoin’s lifespan.
“A record 76.2% of the Bitcoin network is locked up with long-term holders today,” he wrote on X on Oct. 18.
“Topping the record set in 2015. Less liquid supply means the same people are bidding on less coins. You do the math.”
Edwards referenced the knock-on effect of the LTH record — that coins available for other market participants are getting rarer.
An accompanying Glassnode chart shows LTHs increasing their BTC exposure dramatically from mid-2021 onward, “hodling” through the entirety of the subsequent bear market. Only during brief periods since has the percentage of supply that they control decreased.
In private comments to Cointelegraph, meanwhile, Edwards added that, while demand for Bitcoin itself fluctuates, the trend trajectory is clear.
“I don’t mean demand is the same as 2015. I mean that for the same given demand and a reduced supply means price must go up — supply/demand economics,” he explained.
“But in reality, demand has increased quite a lot since 2015, so it should put even more upward pressure on price for this cycle. We have never had Bitcoin’s supply this constricted going into a halving.”
BTC speculators stay on the sidelines
As reported, the opposite end of the spectrum to LTHs — short-term hodlers (STHs), or speculators — are also of major interest to market observers.
The realized price of the STH cohort has functioned as support during much of this year, and this week, fresh data shows that the trend remains in play.
The STH realized price — the price at which all STH-owned coins last moved — sits at just below $27,000, and BTC/USD breaking above it this week is an important bullish impetus, analysis says.
Data shows Bitcoin holding $28,000 support after hitting two-month highs.
In August, meanwhile, the historically low BTC exposure among STH entities was already on the radar.
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How high can Bitcoin price go by 2024?
Bitcoin is up over 70% so far in 2023, helped by a banking crisis and hopes about a spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the United States.
2020 Bitcoin price fractal eyes $50K
Bitcoin’s ongoing market trend looks very similar to its price action during the 2017 to 2020 period. Therefore, it can repeat a key breakout moment (the greened area) for a decisive bull run, argues popular BTC analyst Stockmoney Lizards.
The 2020 breakout preceded a Bitcoin bull run to its record high of $69,000 in November 2021. If a similar breakout occurs, the analyst sees BTC’s price climbing to the $45,000-$50,000 range by year’s end.
Unlike Bitcoin’s 2020 price rally, however, Bitcoin is currently facing headwinds from the United States Federal Reserve's tightening, resulting in lower liquidity in the market.
Bitcoin's price is down 40% since April 2022 when the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reached its peak.
Standard Chartered also sees Bitcoin at $50K
Standard Chartered also predicts Bitcoin will reach $50,000 by the year's end.
Geoff Kendrick, the global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, argues that increased miners’ profitability will reduce their need to sell BTC, leading to a lower supply against potential rising demand.
“Increased miner profitability per BTC (Bitcoin) mined means they can sell less while maintaining cash inflows, reducing net BTC supply and pushing BTC prices higher,” Kendrick stated in a report.
Interestingly, the number of Bitcoin held by miners surged during the Ordinals hype in May 2023, stabilizing since.
Bitcoin price technical pattern hints at $32,000
Meanwhile, one Bitcoin technical setup puts its year-end target near $32,000, also a recent price peak.
Notably, BTC has entered the breakout stage of its prevailing bump-and-run reversal (BARR) Bottom pattern. The BARR Bottom pattern typically resolves after the price breaks above its descending trendline resistance and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height, as shown below.
The same BARR Bottom pattern played out accurately in Dogecoin’s case in June 2022. BTC price will be up another 12.75% by the end of 2023 if this pattern plays out as intended.
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Shiba Inu Price Prediction as SHIB Becomes Top 20 Crypto in the World – $1 SHIB Incoming?
The price of Shiba Inu (SHIB) has fallen by 2% in the past 24 hours, with its dip to $0.00000690 coming as the cryptocurrency market barely moves in either direction.
Despite its fall, SHIB is actually up by 1% in a week, although it remains down by 5.5% in the last 30 days and by 15% since the beginning of the year.
This drop since January stands in contrast to many other major tokens, yet SHIB remains the 19th-biggest coin in the market by cap, with the fact that it has been heavily oversold recently indicating that it could be due a big rebound.
Shiba Inu Price Prediction as SHIB Becomes Top 20 Crypto in the World – $1 SHIB Incoming?
SHIB's indicators continue to look very bad at the moment, given that they've remained in oversold positions without the meme token showing any real signs of a strong recovery.
Most notably, SHIB's 30-day exponential moving average (yellow) has remained substantially below its 200-day average (blue) for several months, highlighting the fact that the coin has had a real problem in lifting itself from its current funk.
Likewise, SHIB's relative strength index (purple) has remained below 50 since the middle of August, and like its averages the RSI is struggling to improve.
This is also reflected in the meme token's gradually sinking support level (green), another sign that it's suffering from a serious long-term decline.
On the one hand, this all suggests that investors have generally lost interest in SHIB and don't see it bouncing back anytime soon.
Yet on the other hand, it also suggests that SHIB can be bought at a very steep discount, given how heavily oversold it has been.
Because compared to most other meme tokens, SHIB arguably has much stronger fundamentals, as witnessed by this summer's launch of the Shibarium layer-two network.
Transactions on Shibarium have been rising in recent days and weeks, highlighting how the new layer-two could really boost Shiba Inu's ecosystem in the near and more distant future.
Shiba Inu also has the eventual launch of SHIB: The Metaverse to look forward to, although there's no firm release date for this.
Regardless, Shiba Inu's own metaverse platform will likely attract plenty of adoption and users for SHIB, something wihch will ultimately boost its price.
Part of the reason why SHIB has declined in recent weeks is that few major updates have been heard from SHIB: The Metaverse, yet as the above tweet shows, its team was in Dubai recently to discuss the latest developments.
As such, the metaverse is coming, and when it does SHIB is likely to rally big.
As for now, SHIB could be expected to return to $0.0000080 in the next few weeks, and potentially rise to $0.000010 by next year.
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Bitcoin Prices Retain Strength After Binance.US Halts Dollar Withdrawals
Bitcoin prices have retained their strength today, managing to achieve relative stability in spite of the latest news that Binance.US has stopped its customers from directly withdrawing the U.S. dollar.
Yesterday, the exchange updated its terms of use.
The updated terms specified that "In the event that customers wish to withdraw U.S. dollar funds from their account, they may do so by converting U.S. dollar funds to stablecoin or other digital assets, which can subsequently be withdrawn," Reuters reported earlier today.
Interestingly enough, bitcoin, the world's most prominent digital currency, seemed unfazed, trading primarily between $28,300 and $28,500, according to Coinbase data provided by TradingView.
When asked about the market's response to this latest Binance-related news, several analysts did not appear shocked.
"While the binance.us news is definitely bearish, it also comes as no surprise," said Tim Enneking, managing director of Digital Capital Management.
"The vast majority of binance.us users have long since pulled all assets off of the exchange, so this announcement surprised literally no one," he added.
Armando Aguilar, an independent cryptocurrency analyst, also offered his point of view.
"As of February (Binance averted shutdown in June 2023), Binance.US had ~700k users and the market had priced Binance's potential U.S. problems during late summer so the halting of USD withdrawals might not be considered bearish news," he stated.
Aguilar elaborated, speaking to some major developments in the space.
"The headlines has been CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink calling crypto a 'flight to safety' on public national television as a response to ongoing unrest in Israel and other events around the world," said Aguilar.
"It’s important to understand the magnitude of such a statement as a few years ago, Larry Fink called BTC an “index for money laundering” in 2017, but now BlackRock has skin in the game and will benefit from the rise in BTC prices if it’s awaited Spot BTC ETF is approved," he added.
"Several other spot BTC ETFs are in the pipeline as well."
"Given Bloombergs analyst high approval rate, investors seem to be bullish on spot BTC ETFs thus keeping small price momentum given the global macroeconomic environment," Aguilar noted.
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BTC price holds 6% gains as Bitcoin battles for ‘crucial’ $28K support
Bitcoin passing $28,000 hints at bullish sentiment, but reclaiming it for good is essential, analysis says.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Oct. 17, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, described the $28,000 mark as a “critical milestone” for the BTC price.
Glassnode: “Keep an eye out” for $28,000
After snap volatility, which caused Bitcoin to hit $30,000 for the first time since August, the largest cryptocurrency has managed to preserve some of its gains.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD is circling $28,500, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView — still up around 6% since the weekly open.
For Allemann and Happel, the pair is now at a defining crossroads.
“The crypto market is hinged on BTC’s ability to breach and consistently maintain a value north of $28k,” part of their commentary stated.
$28,000 has formed a battleground ever since Bitcoin first crossed it in early 2021, and liquidity has traditionally surrounded it as bulls and bears fight to secure control over long-term trajectory.
Data from the trading suite DecenTrader, among others, confirms that the status quo remains despite recent BTC price moves, with $28,000 lying in a zone between major longs and shorts of varying leverage.
“While this pivotal milestone was momentarily attained on futures, the spot market price peaked at $27.98k earlier today. It’s evident just how crucial this price point is in the larger scheme,” Allemann and Happel added.
“The rapid movements and these price thresholds aren’t just numbers. They signify investor sentiment, market dynamics. Keep an eye out for the 28k level.”
Road to Bitcoin halving contested
As reported, predictions over what the future will bring for Bitcoin both before and after its next block subsidy halving in April 2024 differ considerably.
In an interview last month, DecenTrader co-founder Filbfilb eyed BTC price galvanizing itself for upside during Q4, possibly reaching $46,000 by the halving.
Some well-known market participants, however, remain risk-averse. Among them, popular trader Crypto Tony and others are betting on a pre-halving return to $20,000 for a final local bottom.
“Many can scream they are long right now and caught that move, but if your not taking profit here at resistance your doing something wrong,” he toldX subscribers about the recent surge.
“I personally will not be long unless we flip that $28,500 level into support.”
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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sends 15M USDC to Gemini
Blockchain sleuths have zeroed in on a recent transaction from a wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, where he transferred $14.9 million worth of USD Coin to the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini.
According to an Oct. 17 post from blockchain analytics firm PeckShield on X, Buterin’s wallet, “vitalik.eth,” transferred $14.93 million to Gemini on Oct. 16.
The transaction was independently verified by Cointelegraph on Etherscan.
Buterin received the original sum of 14.93 million USDC from Kanro, a charity affiliated with Buterin on Oct. 14.
Separate analysis from crypto data provider Lookonchain found that Buterin had also recently transferred nearly $500,000 to Coinbase three days prior.
The price of Ethereum’s native currency, Ether, held steady following news of the transfer, falling just 0.68% in the past four hours, according to price data from CoinGecko.
Buterin’s most recent transaction is the latest in a spate of ETH deposits to centralized exchanges over the past few months, with the total transfers from Buterin’s wallets totaling more than $3.9 million in September.
On Sept. 24, Buterin transferred 400 ETH — worth $600,000 at the time — to Coinbase. Cointelegraph previously reported a 600-ETH ($1 million) transaction from the vitalik.eth address on Aug. 21, which was also identified by on-chain monitoring platforms.
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Bitcoin Price Pumps From $28,000 to $30,000 and Back Again Within Minutes After Unsubstantiated Rumors of Spot BTC ETF Approval
Bitcoin pumped from under $28,000 to $30,000 within minutes earlier on Monday as unverified rumors that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved asset management giant BlackRock’s iShares spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) application began circulating across social media.
The veracity of the rumours was immediately questioned, with Twitter users asking for the source.
According to Bloomberg reporter Emily Graffeo, BlackRock said on Monday that its ETF application is still under review.
As market participants realized the lack of credibility behind the rumors of iShares spot Bitcoin ETF approval, shorts piled in and sent the Bitcoin price quickly back to the $28,000 level.
That marked a price swing of as much as 7.5% higher and then lower again in a matter of minutes.
The Bitcoin market’s outsized moves based on social media rumors emphasise how sensitive the cryptocurrency is to the theme of spot ETF applications right now.
Dozens of major financial institutions, including BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity, applied to create their own spot Bitcoin ETFs back in June.
Meanwhile, at the end of last week, the SEC decided not to appeal against a legal loss it sustained in a lawsuit with Grayscale over the manner in which it shot down the digital asset manager’s latest spot Bitcoin ETF application.
This bolstered hopes the agency is readying itself for spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.
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Australia's Government Calls for Digital Asset Platforms to Abide by Existing Financial Regulations
The Australian government has unveiled a proposal aimed at imposing stricter regulations on cryptocurrency trading platforms, with a focus on enhancing oversight of customer funds.
The proposal, released on Monday, suggests subjecting digital asset platforms to the same laws that govern other financial services providers, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
As part of the plan, crypto platform operators will be required to obtain a financial services license, as well as continuous monitoring and routine audits of customer funds.
"Government is acting methodically to ensure that consumers are adequately protected and innovation can flourish," Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated in a released statement.
He also noted that the proposed regulations align with similar measures implemented in other jurisdictions.
High-Profile Crypto Failures Prompt Tighter Regulations
The recent collapse of some high-profile crypto firms has underscored the need for tighter oversight.
For one, the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in November 2022 revealed significant vulnerabilities.
At the time of its downfall, FTX held a staggering 218.6 million Australian dollars (US$137.7 million) belonging to 24,656 local customers, as reported by local bankruptcy administrator KordaMentha.
It is worth mentioning that FTX had previously held an Australian Financial Services license, which was subsequently suspended by regulators.
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is currently facing trial in the United States.
Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated the theft of billions of dollars from customers, using the funds for personal enrichment, venture investments, and even political campaign contributions.
Bankman-Fried has entered a plea of not guilty to all charges.
Crypto Under Scrutiny in Australia
Crypto has been under increasing scrutiny in Australia as of late.
Back in May, cryptocurrency exchange Binance Australia told customers they would lose access to Australian dollar deposits and withdrawals due to a decision by its third-party service provider.
In July, officials from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) even conducted searches at Binance Australia's offices.
Moreover, in March, Australia’s prudential regulator instructed banks to report their exposures to crypto firms and startups following the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting turmoil in the banking sector.
The APRA asked local banks to improve their reports on crypto assets and provide daily updates to the regulator to gain more insight into potential vulnerabilities in the system.
In response to increasing restrictions on crypto payments, Blockchain Australia, an industry body representing the Blockchain and digital currency industry in Australia, has launched new initiatives to tackle the issue of crypto scams and frauds.
Under the new plan, the body will take numerous measures, including education programs, roundtables, and more.
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Grayscale’s ETF Aspirations Get a Boost as SEC Abandons Appeal – Bitcoin Price to the Moon?
The Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly vaulted back above $27,000 on Friday in wake of reports that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) won’t appeal against a recent court ruling that reversed its decision to prevent crypto asset manager Grayscale from converting its Bitcoin trust into an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
As per a Reuters report, the SEC had until midnight on Friday to appeal against the legal loss but decided not to.
Back in August, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the SEC’s rejection of Grayscales ETF application must be reviewed, labelling it as “arbitrary and capricious”.
The SEC could still opt to reject Grayscale’s ETF application for different reasons than those reversed by the court.
But the decision not to appeal suggests the agency’s resolve to block the passage of Grayscale’s and potentially other companies’ spot Bitcoin ETF applications is waning.
That’s in fitting with a growing narrative in the Bitcoin markets that by early 2024, the SEC will have green lit a number of spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Wall Street behemoths like BlackRock, Fidelity and Vanguard all filing their own applications back in June.
GBTC to BTC Discount Keeps Narrowing
Since early 2021, shares of Grayscale’s Bitcoin trust, the largest such crypto product in the world, have been trading at a discount to its actual Bitcoin holdings.
A conversion to an ETF would eliminate this discount by allowing for the creation of a issuance/redemption model, with new shares issued in times of rising demand and then redeemed in times of falling demand to keep the price steady and level with Bitcoin.
Anticipation that Grayscale’s Bitcoin trust may soon be converted to an ETF means that this discount has narrowed sharply in recent months, however.
The discount was last around its lowest level of the year at 16.5%, having hit as high as 47% in February.
Some analysts are likely to view the narrowing of the discount as a positive sign for the bitcoin market and indicative of rising demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price to the Moon?
As of early Saturday trade, the Bitcoin (BTC) price is consolidating just below $27,000, roughly at the midway point between its 50DMA at $26,650 and its 21DMA at $27,160.
There wasn’t much follow-through to the latest Grayscale/SEC news, but it high lights a bullish theme that has become very familiar to Bitcoin investors in recent months – that of expected spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the coming quarters.
Analysts at Coinbase recently argued that they view spot ETF approvals as now partially priced in for Bitcoin, which could signal that this theme is unlikely to provide much by way of near-term tailwinds.
“We think the divergence in the performance of bitcoin and other tokens shows that the potential approval of one or more spot bitcoin ETPs has already been partially priced in... That makes it less clear how much more bitcoin could outperform if a favorable US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision occurs,” argued David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional.
Meanwhile, macro headwinds remain strong.
Following this week’s hot US inflation readings, US yields remain not too far from the multi-decade highs they hit earlier this month in anticipation of higher interest rates for longer from the US Federal Reserve.
That suggests that a breakout of Bitcoin’s recent multi-week $25,000-$28,000ish range may not occur any time soon.
But as we enter 2024 and spot ETF approvals become a reality and excitement about the Bitcoin halving and a possible Fed cutting cycle amp up, the Bitcoin price could well be headed towards the moon.
At its current price under $27,000 is still over 60% lower versus its all-time highs.
If the cryptocurrency’s history is anything to go by, Bitcoin could be headed well beyond these all-time highs, with gains in the region of 200x a strong possibility.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Slips 3% as Cryptocurrency Market Reacts to CPI Data as JPMorgan Awaits SEC's ETF Verdict
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has recently stirred reactions in the crypto space, causing BTC to slip by 3%. As this unfolds, JPMorgan awaits the SEC's verdict on the ETF, poised to be a major determinant of Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory.
Adding another layer to the regulatory landscape, the looming deadline for the SEC to address its August 29 setback against Grayscale approaches, with the Commission having only until midnight on Friday to respond.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East raises concerns for the digital currency industry. Recognizing the situation's urgency, Coinbase's CEO appeals to Congress, emphasizing the need for prompt and rational cryptocurrency legislation in these tumultuous times.
Grayscale vs SEC: Friday Midnight Deadline Looms for August 29 Challenge
Grayscale Investments achieved a significant legal victory when the D.C. Circuit Court ruled in their favour on August 29, allowing them to convert their Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an Exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The court found that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had arbitrarily and capriciously denied the proposal.
The SEC was given a 45-day window to appeal, with the deadline set for October 13 at midnight. If the SEC chooses not to appeal, it is equivalent to approval, potentially paving the way for the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.
However, the market speculates that alternative arguments could be used to reject the ETF, possibly related to Coinbase's involvement. The outcome could affect the cryptocurrency market, with potential sell pressure.
Amidst Middle East Tensions, Coinbase CEO Pushes for Swift Crypto Legislation
Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, has urged the US Congress to promptly enact sensible cryptocurrency legislation as the Middle East conflict escalates.
He stressed the need for the crypto industry to thrive in nations upholding the rule of law rather than being forced into regions with lesser regard for human rights and public safety.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) categorizes most crypto tokens, except bitcoin, as securities, subjecting crypto platforms to regulatory oversight.
Grewal's statement came in response to reports that Hamas had received approximately $41 million in cryptocurrency over three years, utilizing Binance for fundraising. Coinbase remains committed to preventing illicit cryptocurrency use through stringent measures like KYC checks, sanctions screening, and law enforcement collaboration.
Grewal's call for sensible cryptocurrency legislation may garner support from the crypto community as it seeks legitimacy and clarity.
This development could contribute to a more favourable market outlook, with increased regulatory certainty potentially attracting more institutional investors and boosting overall confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
On October 13th, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading at $26,793.09 with a 24-hour volume of approximately $9.43 billion. Despite a minor 0.04% dip in the last day, it firmly holds its #1 position on CoinMarketCap with a market cap nearing $522.79 billion.
This dominant cryptocurrency has 19,512,131 BTC in circulation out of its maximum 21,000,000 BTC. Technical analysis from a 4-hour chart reveals a pivot point at $27,208.
Resistance levels are marked at $27,909, $28,636, and $29,304, while support is seen at $26,461, $25,779, and $25,044.
With an RSI of 33, the momentum suggests a potential oversold condition. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average stands close to the pivot at $27,284.
The immediate trend appears bearish if Bitcoin stays below $27,208.
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Bitcoin price rockets to $35K as ETF excitement grows
Uptober may have finally arrived, with the price of Bitcoin breaking through the $34,000 mark for the first time since May last year, marking a staggering 14% gain in the past 24 hours.
The price of Bitcoin suddenly spiked upward on Oct. 23, with BTC gaining more than 10% from $31,000 to over $34,000.
Less than two hours after breaking $34,000, Bitcoin reached as high as $35,300 according to data from TradingView. Bitcoin is currently changing hands for a price of $34,550.
The sudden uptick in price for Bitcoin comes amid a fresh wave of interest in upcoming spot ETF approvals and a significant increase in overall trading volumes across spot markets.
The surge also came amid developments relating to BlackRock’s proposed spot Bitcoin ETF.
On Oct. 23, an X (formerly known as Twitter) post from Analyst Scott Johnson pointed to two new pieces of information that could hint a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is getting closer for the investment giant.
Johnson pointed out that BlackRock had secured a specific "CUSIP" license and may soon begin the process of "seeding" their spot ETF product with cash as early as this month.
In response to the post, senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that seeding an ETF is “typically not a lot of money” and would be just enough to get an ETF going, however, admitted that it is overall a good sign and marks "another step in the process of launching."
The sudden surge in price also came with a significant growth in Bitcoin's spot trading volume. At the time of publication, spot trading volume had surged to more than $35 billion over the past 24 hours, a gain of 241% in the same time period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
While Bitcoin enjoyed the largest price impulse, the general tide of upwards price momentum lifted other boats as well, with Ethereum's native currency Ether growing 7%, while Solana gained a whopping 11%. Additionally, Dogecoin was up 8% while Cardano lagged slightly with a 5% gain.
Crypto market commentators and community members were seemingly left dumbfounded by the sudden move upward — with independent journalist Autism Capital asking their 237,000 followers; "what the heck just happened?"
Zooming out from the immediate price action, there seemed to be a favorable set up for the sudden growth in the price of cryptocurrencies, with Coinshares data showing that digital asset investment products saw a fourth consecutive week of inflows.
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SEC has 3%–14% chance of success in Ripple appeal, lawyers predict
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has a very slim chance of winning its appeal against Ripple in the ongoing lawsuit, according to lawyer Bill Morgan, who has been closely following the lawsuit.
Morgan, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), argued that there is no obvious appellable error other than in “Ripple’s favour regarding ODL sales which don’t meet at least two prongs of the Howey test,” while adding that there is a very slim chance of about 3% for SEC’s success in getting an appeal against Ripple.
Morgan’s prediction came in repose of another statistic shared by Jeremy Hogan, a prominent attorney, who shared government data on the rate of success of appeals in different types of lawsuits. The data suggests the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning the appeal against Ripple.
The SEC fought a long-drawn court battle against Ripple for three years before a judge ruled that the sale of XRP on crypto exchanges doesn’t violate securities law. The judgment came as a major win for Ripple, which lost a significant chunk of business during the SEC lawsuit in the U.S. as major crypto exchanges delisted XRP from their platforms.
The SEC also lost an appeal against the judgment in which Judge Analisa Torres ruled on Oct. 4 that the security regulator failed to meet its burden to show that there were controlling questions of law or substantial grounds for differences of opinion on the ruling.
Later on Oct. 19, the SEC moved to dismiss all the charges filed against Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chair Chris Larsen, offering another major victory for Ripple and its executives.
Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty called the SEC’s move “a surrender,” while Ripple, in its official statement, deemed the SEC’s move a “stunning capitulation.”
Morgan noted that the SEC has dismissed the rest of the case, so there will be no trial next year, and predicted that the court might give a “final judgment (probably) sometime next year.”
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Bitcoin Dominance Reaches Over 49%, Highest in 2 Years – What’s Going On?
Bitcoin (BTC)'s dominance in the cryptocurrency market has surpassed 49%, reaching its highest level in more than two years.
According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin's dominance currently stands at 49.58%, almost three times the dominance of Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto by market cap, which sits at around 16.7%.
This steady increase in dominance, starting from around 38% at the beginning of the year, signifies a significant surge in Bitcoin's market share.
The rise in Bitcoin's dominance can be largely attributed to its year-long rally, with the cryptocurrency's price surging by 81% since the start of 2023.
This impressive performance has solidified Bitcoin's position as a leading force in the market.
There are several factors that could have contributed to the surge.
First, concerns over inflation, geopolitical risks, and the increasingly polarized U.S. government have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets, minimizing their exposure to risk.
Bitcoin, with its decentralized nature and limited supply, has emerged as an appealing option for those seeking stability amidst uncertainty.
Additionally, the possibility of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining regulatory approval has further bolstered confidence in the cryptocurrency.
A Bitcoin ETF approval would provide mainstream investors with an accessible and regulated avenue to invest in Bitcoin, potentially attracting a significant influx of capital into the market.
Bitcoin Could Hit $42K if a Spot ETF is Approved
As reported, crypto financial services platform Matrixport has predicted a major Bitcoin rally if a spot ETF hits the market.
Comparing this to the precious metals ETFs, which have a market cap of around $120 billion, assuming that 10-20% of precious metal ETF investors consider diversifying into a Bitcoin ETF as a hedge against monetary debasement and inflation, Matrixport said we could witness an inflow of $12 to $24 billion into the Bitcoin ETF.
"If Tether’s market cap increases by $24 billion, acting as a proxy for potential ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s price would rise to $42,000, representing a conservative estimate."
Moreover, with a larger influx of $50 billion resulting from a 1% allocation recommendation by RIAs, Bitcoin has the potential to rally up to $56,000, the firm added.
As of late, there has been growing optimism toward the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Just last week, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said that the SEC will soon approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.
"I'm quite hopeful that these [ETF] applications will be granted, if only because they should be granted under the law."
He highlighted the recent court ruling that dealt a blow to the SEC, stating that the regulator had no grounds to deny Grayscale's bid to convert its GBTC Bitcoin fund into an ETF.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as $10 Billion Sends BTC Above $30,000 Resistance – New Bull Market Officially Starting?
Bitcoin, the pioneering digital asset, has once again captured global attention as it surges past the formidable $30,000 resistance level. A colossal inflow of $10 billion has catalyzed this rally, signifying renewed confidence from institutional and retail investors alike.
With this significant breach of resistance, market analysis is heralding the onset of a fresh bull market cycle. As the world keenly observes Bitcoin's trajectory, the overarching question remains: How high will it soar this time?
Snapshot of Current Metrics
At present, Bitcoin trades at a commendable $29,623. Digital gold has seen an impressive 24-hour trading volume of approximately $21 billion, marking an upward trend of over 3% in this timeframe.
Bitcoin proudly sits at the pinnacle, dominating the crypto market, holding the #1 rank on CoinMarketCap. Its live market capitalization stands at a staggering $578 billion.
Delving into its supply metrics, there are currently 19.52 million BTC coins in circulation, inching closer to its maximum supply cap of 21 million coins.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Analyzing the current technical landscape for Bitcoin, we find several pivotal metrics that provide insight into its potential trajectory. The pivot point, a crucial technical level, is currently placed at $29,350.
As we navigate the price landscape, Bitcoin encounters its immediate resistance at $30,285. Further resistances are sequentially layered at $31,075 and $31,820.
On the downside, the cryptocurrency has established its immediate support at $28,200. Delving deeper, subsequent support levels are discernible at $27,285 and $26,555.
Turning our focus to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands out prominently. Currently, the RSI value for Bitcoin is at 68.
This is significant as an RSI value above 70 typically signifies that the asset might be in overbought territory, suggesting a potential correction in the offing.
On the other end of the spectrum, an RSI below 30 would indicate an oversold condition. In Bitcoin's case, the RSI, being just shy of 70, showcases a robust bullish sentiment.
However, traders should be on the lookout as this also implies the looming possibility of a price correction.
Further complementing our technical analysis is the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), another critical metric. For Bitcoin, this EMA is currently valued at $28,700.
This indicator, along with the aforementioned metrics, provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's current market position and potential future movements.
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Crypto Aid Israel raises $185K in 10 days, distributes aid to 4 organizations
The Crypto Aid Israel collective has raised over $185,000 since its creation less than two weeks ago and has distributed aid to several humanitarian groups.
The organization has carried out two rounds of aid distribution so far, dispensing around 200,000 shekels ($50,000). Nongovernmental organizations benefitting from its efforts include the Foundation for Advancing Citizens of Eshkol Regional Council, which has provided transportation and shelter to people living close to Gaza.
Zaka has received funds to purchase medical equipment and protective gear for its workers on the front lines.
Lev Echad by Or Hanegev veHagalil, which normally works with at-risk youth, has received funds for food, hygiene products and clothes for residents of areas adjacent to Gaza who chose to remain in the areas to provide protection and support.
Latet is using funds for a large-scale operation to provide food and hygiene products for people from the south of Israel who remain there or have been relocated. Eyal Gura, crypto and new digital initiatives adviser to Latet, said:
“We believe that while modest initially, the crypto channel is an important, speedy and innovative one and will enable new contributors to join our global ecosystem and support Israel in such an important hour.“
Donations to Crypto Aid Israel can be made to a multisignature wallet via its website. The organization warns people to be cautious when they donate, as phishing attacks have occurred.
The Crypto Aid Israel initiative was led by the Israeli Web3 community, with companies providing support as well. Global accounting firm KPMG assisted with fundraising and distribution. Zengo, Fuse, Wonderland, Psagot Equity and other companies have contributed to the effort as well.
There has been a renewed push to ensure that crypto is not used to fund terrorism. Binance has frozen wallets allegedly linked to the militant group Hamas, while the United States Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has sanctioned a crypto operator in Gaza with alleged ties to Hamas and has proposed a rule to designate cryptocurrency mixing as an area of “primary money laundering concern.” Over 100 U.S. lawmakers sent a letter to the Treasury Department enquiring about the use of crypto in financing terrorism on Oct. 17.
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Bitcoin ETF Watchers Wait for "Some Sort of Announcement" on Friday
Observers are eagerly awaiting a potential announcement surrounding the possibility of a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Friday.
On October 20, a District of Columbia court is set to issue a mandate that could solidify an August opinion in favor of Grayscale, which sought to convert its Bitcoin trust (GBTC) into an ETF.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently decided not to appeal the previous ruling, creating anticipation for the next steps in the process.
Industry analysts, including Elliott Stein and James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence, anticipate some announcement or additional information from the SEC, Grayscale, or the courts regarding the next course of action.
"We are waiting on some sort of announcement or just additional information from the SEC, Grayscale or possibly the courts on what happens next," said Seyffart.
"The full next steps can’t truly be known because this is a first-of-its-kind situation."
Progress in Grayscale's Case Could Bring Further Clarity to ETF Approval
Progress regarding the conversion of Grayscale's GBTC into an ETF could bring much-needed clarity to the ETF approval process, which has been shrouded in uncertainty.
Many industry watchers have been unsure how the SEC would handle Grayscale's proceedings and the numerous other outstanding ETF applications.
For one, crypto investor Michael Novogratz expressed his belief that the SEC would approve a Bitcoin ETF this year.
Grayscale has argued that converting GBTC into an ETF could unlock significant value for its holders.
While the SEC has been hesitant in the past, several companies, including BlackRock and Invesco, are currently vying to launch their own ETF products. Galaxy Digital, led by Novogratz, is partnering with Invesco on a proposal.
Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that the most likely scenario is that Grayscale's application will be approved simultaneously with those of other issuers like BlackRock.
ARK Investment Management's Cathie Wood has echoed similar sentiments, advocating for the SEC to green-light multiple applications at once.
In a recent interview, SEC Chair Gary Gensler mostly avoided giving any firm answers regarding the potential launch date of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, he did talk about the disclosure review team, claiming that the agency has been responding and giving feedback to issuers.
Investment Firms File Amended Applications
As reported, Fidelity Investments, one of the world's largest asset management firms, has filed an amendment application to its proposed Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust.
The amendment addresses crucial aspects such as the secure custody of customers' Bitcoin holdings and the disclosure of risks associated with the regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies.
Fidelity's move follows similar actions by Ark Invest and Invesco, who recently amended their own filings for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
These developments indicate ongoing discussions between prospective ETF providers and the SEC, leading to a surge in optimistic sentiment among traders and market observers.
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Bitcoin metrics ‘improve bullish odds’ as BTC price holds 200-week trendline
Bitcoin continues to hold key support which new analysis says “improves bullish probabilities.”
In an X (formerly Twitter) thread on Oct. 17, Caleb Franzen, senior analyst at Cubic Analytics, drew attention to two moving averages now forming the BTC price battleground.
Analysis: Enduring Bitcoin support “a great sign”
Bitcoin is wedged between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
At $28,277 and $25,744 respectively, as of Oct. 18, the two trendlines have formed support and resistance since mid-August.
For Franzen, this is an important feature to note on weekly timeframes and constitutes one of several encouraging characteristics of the BTC/USD chart.
“One of the reasons why I’ve stayed patient with $BTC, even though I’ve leaned defensive, is that price has been trying to use the 200-week moving average cloud as support,” part of one post read.
It added that bulls successfully holding the 200-week EMA was a “great sign.”
Franzen additionally cited the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) — the aggregate on-chain price at which coins owned by younger investors last moved.
Currently around $26,900, much attention has been given to the metric in 2023 thanks to its ability to act as market support.
“Price is breaking above the STHRP, which is a key characteristic of an uptrend & it has a history of acting as dynamic support,” the thread continued, alongside data from on-chain analytics resource ChainExposed.
“This improves bullish odds.”
Franzen was quick to note that despite the signals, there was no suggestion that BTC price action would make bull market-style gains as a result.
“On the aggregate, these indicators show us that constructive dynamics are taking place and improving bullish probabilities,” he explained.
“They don’t mean number go up. They mean that good things are happening.”
BTC price cycle deja vu strikes
The findings chime with other recent investigations into Bitcoin on-chain behavior.
As reported, BTC/USD remains up around 6% this week, despite snap volatility briefly disturbing market conditions.
As network fundamentals surge to new all-time highs, anticipation is building over what could follow for BTC price action as it heads toward the April 2024 block subsidy halving.
Among the more vocal optimists is popular social media trader Moustache, who this week continued to compare Bitcoin’s 2023 performance with that of 2020
An illustrative chart uploaded to X matches the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020, with Bitcoin’s two-year lows post-FTX meltdown seen at the end of 2022.
“Still looks textbook, doesn't it?” part of accompanying commentary argued, querying whether a “big move” could soon result.
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Singapore Establishes Task Forces to Assist Police in Crypto-Related Crimes
Singapore's Attorney-General's Office has officially established two specialized task forces, comprising approximately 20 prosecutors, tasked with addressing the crypto related crimes.
Deputy Chief Prosecutor of the Attorney-General's Chambers, Ong Shouren, told a local news outlet that law enforcement agencies are under increasing pressure to adapt and comprehend how criminals leverage technology, giving rise to new crime patterns.
Prosecutors must equip themselves with the necessary knowledge and skills to effectively address these emerging technology-driven crimes, he added.
Ong Shouren stated:
"In general, there are two main forms of technology crimes. One is technology-enabled crimes, directly related to technology, such as hacking into computer systems. The other is technology-assisted crimes, which encompass traditional crimes that are facilitated by technology, including digital counterfeiting, online harassment, and fraud."
Singapore Establishes Cryptocurrency Task Force
In order to address growing tech-related crimes, Singapore’s Attorney General established two dedicated task forces: the Technology Crime Working Group (Technology Crime Task Force) and the Cryptocurrency Task Force.
The Technology Crime Working Group is primarily responsible for tackling computer or technology-assisted crimes, in addition to managing digital evidence and related matters.
On the other hand, the Cryptocurrency Task Force is focused on the multifaceted challenges associated with virtual currencies, treating them as assets.
This includes collaboration with the Singapore Police Force to track, seize, and manage virtual currency assets, an increasingly vital component of modern financial investigations.
Shouren said:
"We also maintain contact with large technology companies, such as social media companies, because the public sector and the private sector must work closely together to combat cybercrime and respond to the challenges brought about by the rise of technology."
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BTC price models hint at $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halving
Bitcoin is destined to hit $128,000 or more by the end of 2025, multiple analytics models suggest.
Uploading his latest BTC price estimates to X (formerly Twitter) on Oct. 17, popular trader and analyst CryptoCon deduced a two-year target of around $130,000.
Multiple BTC price forecasts converge on $130,000 in 2025
Bitcoin market participants are diverging over how BTC price behavior will respond to next year’s block subsidy halving, but for CryptoCon, the long-term roadmap is looking firmly bullish.
In an update for various models charting both Bitcoin price cycles and their highs and lows, the analyst reiterated that the area around $130,000 was fast becoming a magnet.
“I’ve been doing a lot of Bitcoin cycle top experiments lately, and I keep seeing right around the same price... 130k,” he summarized.
An accompanying chart highlighted so-called “early” tops in each price cycle, along with the actual cycle top constituting a new all-time high.
The early tops, on average, occur three weeks on either side of July 9, CryptoCon explained. The new all-time highs come three weeks on either side of Nov. 28 — already a popular phenomenon.
The timing for these events comes from plotting simple diagonal trendlines from the first early top.
“Doing this has found the the price of the last two cycle tops exactly, and with our trend from last cycle, gives us a price of about 138k,” the X post continued.
“I am prepared for lower prices, but the stars are aligning at 130k for Bitcoin this cycle!”
Per model timing, 2025 should be the year that the next cycle top occurs, just under twice the current record set in 2021.
“History favors the bears”
Four-year halving cycles, meanwhile, form a guide for many well-known Bitcoin market commentators.
Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to stress that the prehalving year 2023 could bring about some new local lows before the bull market attains full force.
Previously, he warned that the $32,000 highs seen earlier this year could end up printing a double-top structure, helping fuel a protracted BTC price downturn next.
“At this same point in the cycle (~180 days before the Halving)… BTC retraced -25% in 2015/2016 and -38% in 2019,” one of his latest X posts reads.
“Only question is: does history repeat? Or does 2023 generate something completely different? I’m a Macro Bull but history favours Bears.”
Rekt Capital added that any new lows “should be treated as an opportunity for re-accumulation.”
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XRP Price Prediction as $1 Billion Puts XRP in the Green – Time to Buy?
The XRP price has held steady today, with its current level of $0.490994 meaning that it's unchanged in the past hour and past day.
And while XRP is down by 1.5% in a week and by 3.5% in a fortnight, it has actually risen by 3% from its seven-day low, while the altcoin remains up by 44% since the beginning of the year.
This year-to-date increase has happened largely as a result of the positive ruling Ripple secured in July in its case against the SEC, a ruling which the presiding judge upheld when she rejected the regulator's application for an appeal earlier this month.
Such decisions put XRP in a great position to rally once the market becomes more bullish, and with yesterday's premature rumors regarding a Bitcoin ETF approval also briefly benefitting the altcoin, such a rally may not be that far away.
XRP Price Prediction as $1 Billion Puts XRP in the Green – Time to Buy?
XRP's chart and indicators may not be in a great position right now, yet the altcoin's continued underperformance would nonetheless suggest that a recovery rally is due.
After a spike at the beginning of the month, the coin's 30-day exponential moving average (yellow) has fallen some way below its 200-day average (blue) once again, implying that it has been oversold and may become increasingly attractive to buyers after a discount.
Likewise, the coin's relative strength index (purple) struggled yesterday to reach 50, with its slight decline towards 40 today suggesting that it may have to lose a little more momentum before new buyers step in to buy it on the cheap.
One reassuring sign, however, is provided by XRP's support level (green), which has resisted going below $0.48 in recent weeks and which means that the coin isn't likely to fall much lower before recovering again.
Indeed, it seems that XRP is now primed for a spike, with yesterday's false Bitcoin ETF news causing the coin to rise as high as $0.51 for a moment, with its trading volume surpassing $1.12 billion.
While this news was entirely unsubstantiated, it nonetheless shows that recent overselling has put XRP in a position where it could spike massively after the arrival of any seriously positive news.
And XRP is undoubtedly in a very strong position fundamentally, with Ripple's case against the SEC continuing to progress well for the cryptocurrency firm, especially after Judge Analisa Torres struck down the SEC's request for an interlocutory appeal.
This means that the case will now likely go to a full trial on the question of whether Ripple's executives knowingly broke securities regulation, unless both parties agree on a settlement before then.
Either way, Ripple is now in a much better position to continue expanding its business, something which can only benefit XRP in the longer term.
For this reason, XRP can be expected to return to $0.60 soon enough, before next year sees it return to $1.
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South Korean ‘Crypto Killers’ May Face Death Penalty
South Korean prosecutors have requested the death penalty for four suspects in a crypto murder-kidnap case that saw a woman abducted and murdered for her crypto holdings.
The incident took place in the affluent Gangnam District in Seoul in March this year.
The woman is believed to have worked at a crypto-related firm and held large amounts of tokens, such as Bitcoin (BTC).
Suspects at the trial in Seoul Central District Court claimed the woman’s death was an accident, but have variously confessed to kidnapping the victim and attempting to steal her coins.
South Korea has not executed a convicted criminal since 1997.
But the nation has never formally abolished the death penalty.
Almost 60 people remain on death row at the time of writing.
Police arrested and charged seven people shortly after the woman’s body was found abandoned near a dam in the city of Daejeon days after her abduction.
Prosecutors say that Lee Kyung-woo was the crime’s mastermind, with Hwang Dae-han his alleged main accomplice.
And they think the duo was paid to commit the crime by a couple named Yoo Sang-won and Hwang Eun-hee.
The prosecution asked the court to issue all four with the death penalty, Newsis reported.
South Korean Prosecutors Want Death Sentence for ‘Crypto Killers’
Officials also asked the court to deliver a life imprisonment verdict for Yeon Ji-ho, who is thought to have helped Lee and Hwang Dae-han kill the victim.
Prosecutors told the court that Lee and Hwang Dae-han had prepared and premeditated the killing for some time.
They also explained that Yoo Sang-won and Hwang Eun-hee paid Lee and the others almost $52,000 to carry out the act.
Prosecutors told the court in their final summary:
“The cruelty of this murder […], which took place in the middle of Gangnam, is beyond description. […] The defendents do not show any remorse for their crimes and continue to make allegations about the police who investigated the case. A punishment commensurate with the seriousness of the crime is absolutely necessary.”
In August, Lee distanced himself from a confession he had previously made, claiming he had been forced to do so by unscrupulous police officers.
Prosecutors also asked the court to sentence Lee’s wife to five years in prison.
They asked the court to deliver a seven-year jail term to another alleged accomplice who they claim dropped out of the planned killing at the last moment.
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Australia's Government Calls for Digital Asset Platforms to Abide by Existing Financial Regulations
The Australian government has unveiled a proposal aimed at imposing stricter regulations on cryptocurrency trading platforms, with a focus on enhancing oversight of customer funds.
The proposal, released on Monday, suggests subjecting digital asset platforms to the same laws that govern other financial services providers, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
As part of the plan, crypto platform operators will be required to obtain a financial services license, as well as continuous monitoring and routine audits of customer funds.
"Government is acting methodically to ensure that consumers are adequately protected and innovation can flourish," Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated in a released statement.
He also noted that the proposed regulations align with similar measures implemented in other jurisdictions.
High-Profile Crypto Failures Prompt Tighter Regulations
The recent collapse of some high-profile crypto firms has underscored the need for tighter oversight.
For one, the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in November 2022 revealed significant vulnerabilities.
At the time of its downfall, FTX held a staggering 218.6 million Australian dollars (US$137.7 million) belonging to 24,656 local customers, as reported by local bankruptcy administrator KordaMentha.
It is worth mentioning that FTX had previously held an Australian Financial Services license, which was subsequently suspended by regulators.
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is currently facing trial in the United States.
Prosecutors allege that Bankman-Fried orchestrated the theft of billions of dollars from customers, using the funds for personal enrichment, venture investments, and even political campaign contributions.
Bankman-Fried has entered a plea of not guilty to all charges.
Crypto Under Scrutiny in Australia
Crypto has been under increasing scrutiny in Australia as of late.
Back in May, cryptocurrency exchange Binance Australia told customers they would lose access to Australian dollar deposits and withdrawals due to a decision by its third-party service provider.
In July, officials from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) even conducted searches at Binance Australia's offices.
Moreover, in March, Australia’s prudential regulator instructed banks to report their exposures to crypto firms and startups following the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and the resulting turmoil in the banking sector.
The APRA asked local banks to improve their reports on crypto assets and provide daily updates to the regulator to gain more insight into potential vulnerabilities in the system.
In response to increasing restrictions on crypto payments, Blockchain Australia, an industry body representing the Blockchain and digital currency industry in Australia, has launched new initiatives to tackle the issue of crypto scams and frauds.
Under the new plan, the body will take numerous measures, including education programs, roundtables, and more.
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Secret Alameda recording reveals exact moment staff learned about FTX deposits
A 75-minute secretly recorded audio clip of Caroline Ellison has revealed the exact moment 15 former Alameda Research staff found out the trading firm was “borrowing” user funds from FTX.
The full-length recording provides fresh insights into the palpable tension Ellison and Alameda staff felt in the lead-up to FTX’s collapse.
“Alameda was kind of borrowing a bunch of money via open-term loans and using that to make various illiquid investments. So like a bunch of FTX and FTX US equity [...] Most of Alameda’s loans got called in in order to meet those recalls,” Ellison explained during an all-hands meeting in Hong Kong on Nov. 9, 2022.
“We ended up borrowing a bunch of funds from FTX, which led to FTX having a shortfall in user funds.”
“[FTX] basically always allowed Alameda to borrow users’ funds,” she added, speaking to the 15 or so staff in the meeting.
Select segments of the audio recording of the meeting were also played before the court on the eighth day of Sam Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial on Oct. 12, which was part of witness testimony from Christian Drappi, a former software engineer at Alameda.
Drappi’s appearance on the witness stand came immediately following nearly three days of Ellison’s testimony. It is understood that before the meeting, Drappi and many other Alameda employees had no idea that the hedge fund had allegedly been using FTX customer deposits to prop up its trading activity.
In the recording, Drappi is also overheard asking Ellison when she became aware that Alameda was misusing FTX user deposits and who else at the company had known about it.
Initially, Ellison shied away from answering, but Drappi pressed again:
“I’m sure this wasn’t, like, a YOLO thing, right?”
According to court reporting from the trial, the playback of this audio led to one of the more humorous moments in court, where Drappi had to explain the term “YOLO” to everyone in attendance, saying that he wanted Ellison to confirm that the use of FTX deposits hadn’t just been a “spontaneous” decision.
In his testimony, Drappi also described Ellison’s conduct at the meeting as “sunken” and didn’t display much in the way of confidence to Alameda employees. He said he was “stunned” to learn about the extent of the relationship between FTX and Alameda and quit the next day.
Alameda Research engineer Aditya Baradwaj, who was also present at the meeting, said the room was “extremely tense,” with Ellison surfacing a wealth of new information that had “never been discussed internally” — including the later-abandoned acquisition of FTXby its then-largest competitor Binance.
“It became pretty clear that there was no future for the company and that we all had to leave. And we did that right after,” said Baradwaj.
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Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC
Bitcoin ranged around the key $26,800 mark for a second day on Oct. 13 with a decision due in United States regulators’ battle with crypto investment giant Grayscale.
Bitcoin lurks between major liquidity clouds
Data confirmed that the BTC price barely changed from the day prior, acting in a narrow corridor.
Bitcoin market analysts weighed potential catalysts, among these the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) choosing whether or not to appeal a court ruling over its refusal to allow a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
“Today is an important day with the SEC Appeal on the Grayscale ruling,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading, wrote in part of an X (formerly Twitter) post.
“If nothing happens, we might be seeing a case where Bitcoin reverses upwards in the coming weeks. I'm positioned long.”
Macro data prints were due to take a break following a series of releases throughout the week, which all showed inflation more persistent than market expectations had predicted.
Summarizing possible BTC price trajectory from here, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto saw cause for modest optimism.
“We have a very clear and seemingly controlled ‘stairstep’ down on price here. Clear low timeframe breakdowns, retests, and continuation,” he explained alongside a chart.
“We are leaving behind equal lows right below us, so ideally I’d like to see these cleaned up before a reversal. Considering we have bids stacked above and below us, a push to the local highs into asks followed by a rejection and sweep of our lows into the waiting bids and local demand seems like the perfect way to form a reversal here. Let’s see how things develop.”
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades noted BTC/USD moving within a zone between two liquidity clouds, with a reaction more likely should the spot price reach either one.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile placed a target of $25,000 on Bitcoin should bulls fail to reclaim exponential moving averages (EMAs) lost through the week.
GBTC claws back more lost ground
Ahead of the appeal deadline, Grayscale’s flagship investment fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), continued to outperform.
The focus of the legal proceedings, GBTC will end up as a spot ETF, Grayscale has said, with an early victory for the firm seeing its fortunes turn around through Q2.
On Oct. 11, GBTC hit its smallest discount to net asset value — the Bitcoin spot price — since December 2021.
The discount, technically a negative premium, reached -16.44% before dipping slightly lower, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
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Crypto trader pleads guilty to ‘cherry picking’ futures scheme
The former CEO of a Miami-based investment firm has pled guilty to a conspiracy to commit commodities fraud involving crypto futures contracts and now faces up to five years in prison.
In an Oct. 12 statement, the United States Department of Justice said that Peter Kambolin, the former CEO of Systematic Alpha Management (SAM) LLC, operated a “cherry picking” scheme where he marketed his firm as offering algorithmic trading strategies involving futures contracts, including both cryptocurrencies and commodities.
However, Kambolin misrepresented to investors that his fund involved the trading of cryptocurrency futures and foreign exchange futures, when in reality, roughly half of Kambolin’s trading in each pool involved equity index futures contracts.
“In doing so, Kambolin defrauded investors located in the United States and abroad by, among other things, depriving them of profitable trades,” wrote the prosecutors.
Cherry picking is a fraudulent securities trading practice in which a person executes trades without assigning those trades to a particular trading account until the individual determines whether or not the trade has become profitable or suffered losses.
According to the DOJ, Kambolin defrauded investors both in the United States and abroad by depriving them of profitable trades and then using the proceeds to fund his own personal expenses including the rent for a beachfront apartment.
The proceeds of his scheme were transferred to foreign bank accounts controlled by a co-conspirator in Belarus and Dominica.
“Yesterday’s plea recognizes the importance of holding the defendant accountable for his actions in misleading and defrauding investors through a cherry-picking scheme, and using proceeds from the scheme to fund his own personal lifestyle,” said Assistant Inspector General for Investigations Shimon Richmond.
Following his guilty plea, Kambolin now faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison. His sentencing hearing will occur on an undisclosed date in the future.
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