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Bitcoin analysts still predict a BTC price crash to $20K
Bitcoin hit six-week highs to start October, but some forecasts still see a BTC price return to $20,000.
While up around 6% since the start of last month and now circling $27,500, Bitcoin is not fooling many with its current price behavior.
Analyst: October "should be bearish" for Bitcoin later on
BTC price strength in recent weeks has many market participants hoping for a push to — and even through — $30,000 resistance.
For some, however, there remains every reason to be cautious.
In X analysis published on Oct. 2, popular trader and market analyst CryptoBullet reiterated that $20,000 is still very much on the radar as a BTC price target.
The latest trip to $28,600, he argued, is now forming the right hand shoulder of a classic “head and shoulders” chart pattern — with downside logically due to follow if it completes.
“Second half of October should be bearish imo,” CryptoBullet wrote in part of a subsequent debate.
The idea built on a previous roadmap from August which gave a short-term upside target of $28,000 before reversing toward the $20,000 target.
Elsewhere in the debate, CryptoBullet said that the bottom zone for BTC/USD lay between $19,000 and $21,000.
Not all responses heeded his warning, with fellow popular trader Elizy in particular skeptical of the likelihood of such a scenario playing out.
Warning over "distribution" danger
CryptoBullet, however, is far from alone when it comes to fearing that the worst for Bitcoin is not yet over.
In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Sep. 28, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto trading resource Dominando Cripto, drew comparisons to Bitcoin’s performance between 2020 and 2022.
“Between 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin underwent a notable appreciation, reaching historic highs and capturing global attention. However, this phase was followed by a significant correction that caused prices to plummet, sending the cryptocurrency back to lower levels,” he wrote.
Wedson also suggested that should history repeat, sub-$20,000 levels could resurface. An accompanying chart offered a fractal, which could now be subject to a repeat.
“Now, in 2023, we are once again witnessing Bitcoin achieving over +100% in gains, attracting substantial interest from institutional and retail investors. Nevertheless, the market has recently experienced significant volatility and a downward price trend. This similarity to the past raises questions about whether we are witnessing a repeat of the previous cycle,” he continued.
“The target is $19,500 USD if this fractal holds over the next few weeks, which could result in a series of FUD and negative news in the cryptocurrency space. Furthermore, there is the possibility of a redistribution, where the price threatens significant highs, but institutional profit-taking forces the price down, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market.”
As reported, other sources, among them trader and analyst Rekt Capital, are demanding that bulls step up to protect support in order to avert a long-term retracement.
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SBF trial dates revealed: FTX founder to stand trial over 6 weeks
Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried will spend at least 21 days in court as part of his criminal trial, which will begin in earnest on Oct. 4 and last until Nov. 9, according to a newly released trial calendar posted to the public court docket.
The burgeoning trial calendar, released on Sept. 28, begins on Oct. 3 with jury selection. The first official date of the Bankman-Fried trial is Oct. 4, where they will begin discussing seven fraud charges laid against him.
There are two substantive charges where the prosecution must convince a jury that Bankman-Fried had committed the crime. Five other “conspiracy” charges involve the prosecution convincing a jury that Bankman-Fried planned to commit the crimes.
There are 15 full trial days in October and another six in November. The court will not be in session between Oct. 20 and Oct. 25 and on weekends. Public holidays also fall on Oct. 9 and Nov. 10 and there is also no trial slated for Nov. 3.
The former FTX CEO has been serving pre-trial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center since Aug. 11. Through his attorneys, Bankman-Fried has filed numerous motions for temporary release to prepare for his upcoming trial.
His latest attempt was knocked back again on Sept. 28 by U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, suggesting Bankman-Fried might be a flight risk, given his young age and a “very long sentence” if convicted.
“If things begin to look bleak … maybe the time would come when he would seek to flee.”
However, Kaplan said that he was sympathetic to the defense’s concerns, and has granted Bankman-Fried permission to arrive at court at 7am local time on most trial days to speak with his lawyers before testimony begins.
During the hearing on Sept. 28, assistant U.S. attorney Danielle Kudla said the Department of Justice estimated the case could last four to five weeks.
SBF, who pleaded not guilty to seven counts of fraud and conspiracy following the collapse of FTX, faces a statutory maximum of 110 years in prison.
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Bitcoin halving to raise ‘efficient’ BTC mining costs to $30K
Bitcoin Ordinals are boosting miner profits, but “income stress” is looming, new research warns.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode predicted fresh problems for miners after Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving.
Bitcoin halving impact on miners could be “severe”
Bitcoin miner competition is exploding, with hash rate — the estimated combined processing power deployed to the blockchain — at record highs.
For Glassnode, this indicates unprecedented conditions for miners trying to eke out a living at current BTC price levels.
Ordinal inscriptions are helping, with these acting as “packing-filler” which turns empty blockspace into a source of revenue for miners.
“Naturally, as blockspace demand increases, miner revenues will be positively affected,” it wrote.
The proportion of income received from fees has increased between 1% and 4% compared to lows seen during Bitcoin bear markets, but by historical standards remains modest.
“Meanwhile, the amount of hashrate competing for these rewards has increased by 50% since February, as more miners, and newer ASIC rigs are established and come online,” “The Week On-Chain” notes.
This hash rate spike is laying the foundation for an upcoming showdown. In April 2024, miner rewards per block will drop 50%, doubling the so-called “production cost” per BTC. Currently around $15,000, this will pass $30,000 — above the current spot price.
Glassnode presented two models for estimating the price at which miners, on aggregate, fall into the red, with the above comparing issuance to mining difficulty.
“By this model, we estimate that the most efficient miners on the network have an acquisition price of around $15.1k,” researchers explained.
“However, the purple curve shows the post-halving ‘doubling’ of this level to $30.2k, which would likely put the majority of the mining market into severe income stress.”
A previous model put the average miner acquisition price at $24,300 per Bitcoin — around 8% below spot as of Sept. 28.
BTC price incentives
Others are more optimistic about how miners will handle the build-up to the halving.
In an interview, analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, reiterated that miners would up BTC accumulation in advance of the event.
“Miners are incentivized to ensure that prices are well above marginal cost prior to the halving,” he wrote in an X (formerly Twitter) thread in August.
“Whether they collude consciously, or not they are collectively incentivized to send prices higher before their marginal revenue is effectively halved.”
Assisting BTC supply dynamics will be what Filbfilb calls smart money “buying the rumor” over the halving and its own impact on the amount of BTC being minted.
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Do Kwon says SEC's extradition request is impossible
Lawyers for Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon have requested a federal court to reject the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) request to question him in the U.S. over the collapse of the Terra Money ecosystem.
In a Sept. 27 filing, Kwon’s legal team said that the SEC’s request to question him in the United States before Oct. 13 was “impossible” due to being detained in Montenegro with “no scheduled release or extradition date.”
Additionally, Kwon’s team said that providing a written testimony to answer the SEC’s questions would be inconsistent with his right to due process under U.S. law.
“An order mandating something that is impossible serves no practical purpose and risks undermining judicial authority.”
Notably, Kwon’s lawyers claimed that Kwon did not directly oppose a deposition, however noted that it would need to take place in Montenegro, where the UST stablecoin creator is currently out on bail.
According to the filing, the cut off date for discovery in the SEC’s case against Kwon and Terraform Labs is Oct. 13.
Kwon’s legal team added that a Montenegrin court “informally” indicated that it may yet hold a hearing on Oct. 13 or Oct. 26, in which it would ask Kwon the SEC’s questions. However, the SEC noted that it may deem this process to be “inadequate” and pursue another deposition of Kwon after the discovery cut-off date.
The SEC sued Terraform Labs and Kwon on Feb. 16 for allegedly “orchestrating a multi-billion dollar crypto asset securities fraud.”
In the lawsuit, the SEC said that Terraform and Kwon “touted and marketed” its Anchor Protocol, which at one point was advertised to pay out 20% interest on USTC deposits. It also alleged Terraform and Kwon misled investors about the stability of Terra’s stablecoin.
Kwon and Terraform Labs’ chief financial officer Han Chang-Joon were arrested in Montenegro in March 2023 after allegedly using false travel documents when trying to leave the country. The two had their original passports confiscated in South Korea in October 2022.
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Crypto mining 'ponzi' co-founder sentenced to 12 years prison
The co-founder of AirBit Club — a cryptocurrency pyramid scheme that swindled investors of over $100 million — has been sentenced to 12 years in prison.
Seven months earlier, the AirBit Club co-founder, Pablo Rodriguez, pleaded guilty to wire fraud conspiracy charges in a United States District Court in March.
In a Sept. 26 statement, Damian Williams, United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York said Rodriguez “preyed” on unsophisticated investors with false promises that their funds were invested into legitimate cryptocurrency trading and mining operations.
“Instead of investing on behalf of investors, Rodriguez hid victims’ money in a complex laundering scheme using Bitcoin, an attorney trust account, and international front and shell companies and used victims’ money to line his own pockets.”
District Court Judge George B. Daniels imposed an additional three years of supervised release for Rodriguez, which will follow his 12-year prison sentence.
The convicted fraudster was ordered to pay a forfeiture of $65 million and to forfeit other items, including a total of 3,800 Bitcoins (BTC) (worth $100 million), Rodriguez’s Irvine residence in California, $900,000 in U.S. dollars seized from the property and nearly $1 million previously held in escrow for a Gulfstream Jet.
The other defendants — Dos Santos, Scott Hughes, Cecilia Millan and Karina Chairez have also pleaded guilty and are awaiting sentencing verdicts.
AirBit Club was launched in 2015. Prospective investors were told that AirBit Club earned returns on cryptocurrency mining and trading and that victims would earn passive, guaranteed daily returns on any membership purchased.
However, as early as 2016, club members wishing to withdraw proceeds were met with excuses, delays and hidden fees and told they must recruit new members if they wanted to receive the returns.
The operators of the club, including Rodriguez were charged with fraud and money laundering by the DOJ in August 2020 after a probe by the United States Homeland Security Investigations.
In 2022, $7.6 billion in funds were lost to cryptocurrency ponzi and pyramid schemes, according to a June 28 report by blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs.
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Coinbase holds 5% of all Bitcoin in existence: Data
Blockchain intelligence platform Arkham recently identified that crypto exchange Coinbase holds almost 1 million Bitcoin in its wallets. The coins are worth more than $25 billion at current market prices for BTC.
According to Arkham, the exchange’s holdings amount to almost 5% of all existing Bitcoin. Arkham said that Coinbase holds a total of 947,755 BTC. At the moment, Bitcoin’s circulating supply is around 19,493,537, according to coin information website CoinGecko.
Furthermore, Arkham also noted that it tagged and identified 36 million Bitcoin deposit and holding addresses used by the exchange. According to Arkham, Coinbase’s largest cold wallet holds around 10,000 BTC. Based on the exchange’s financial reports, the intelligence company believes that Coinbase has more Bitcoin that are not yet labeled and could not be identified.
While Coinbase holds over $25 billion in BTC in its wallets, the exchange only owns around 10,000 of all the Bitcoin it holds, which is worth roughly $200 million, according to recent data.
Meanwhile, community members expressed varying reactions to the news about the amount of Bitcoin the centralized exchange holds. Some believe it’s a sign to withdraw their BTC from exchanges, warning holders not to wait until exchanges start to halt withdrawals. Others saythat since there are legitimate concerns over cold wallets, there’s no good way to store their assets.
When it comes to Bitcoin ownership by companies, business intelligence firm MicroStrategy still owns the most BTC. In earnings results posted on Aug. 1, the firm’s co-founder Michael Saylor declared that the company owns 152,800 BTC, worth over $4 billion at the time of writing.
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Coinbase sought FTX Europe acquisition after bankruptcy: Report
Crypto exchange Coinbase attempted to acquire FTX Europe twice since it filed for bankruptcy in November 2022, hoping to broaden its derivatives business overseas. The company, however, has decided not to go forward with the deal, Cointelegraph has learned.
According to a report from Fortune, Coinbase explored acquiring FTX’s European arm on two occasions, in November 2022 — following its parent company’s dramatic debacle — and in September 2023. A spokesperson for Coinbase confirmed the report:
“We’re always evaluating opportunities to strategically expand our business and meet with many teams around the world.”
Along with Coinbase, parties interested in FTX Europe reportedly include exchange Crypto.com and crypto firm Trek Labs. According to Fortune, the sale deadline has been extended to Sept. 24. FTX spent nearly $400 million on the acquisition of its European branch.
FTX Europe operated its derivatives business under a Cyprus regulatory license. By the time of the group’s collapse, it was the only firm to offer some popular derivatives products, such as perpetual futures. Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset, such as Bitcoin.
There are various types of derivatives, including options, futures and swaps. Investors use derivatives for hedging, leverage and to speculate on markets. It’s a popular investment strategy for traders and institutional investors.
The acquisition would potentially boost Coinbase’s fee revenue, as crypto derivatives trading is on the rise, despite the bear market. According to Coinbase’s latest quarterly earnings report, the exchange generated $707 million in revenue in the second quarter of 2023, with $327 million coming from spot trading — a $13% decline from the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, global derivatives volumes traded on centralized exchanges increased 13.7% in June to $2.13 trillion, according to CCData. Binance was the leading venue for derivatives crypto trading in the month, with volume topping $1.21 trillion in June, followed by OKX exchange with $416 billion, up 44.9% in activity. Bitcoin futures volume also spiked on the CME exchange, reaching $37.9 billion, a 28.6% increase in the month.
Coinbase has also moved into derivatives markets in the United States. In August, it obtained regulatory approval to offer investments in crypto futures to eligible customers in the country.
The approval enabled Coinbase to introduce Bitcoin and Ether futures contracts through its Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated derivatives exchange, FairX. According to Coinbase’s announcement at the time, the global crypto derivatives market represents nearly 75% of crypto trading volume worldwide and is a “critical trader access point.”
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Bitcoin mining can help reduce up to 8% of global emissions: Report
A paper published by the Institute of Risk Management (IRM) concluded that Bitcoin has the potential to be a catalyst for a global energy transition.
IRM Energy and Renewables Group members Dylan Campbell and Alexander Larsen published a report titled “Bitcoin and the Energy Transition: From Risk to Opportunity.” The paper argued that while BTC was perceived as a risk because of its energy consumption, it can also catalyze energy transition and lead to new solutions for energy challenges worldwide.
Within the report, the authors also highlighted the important function of energy and the increasing need for reliable, clean and more affordable energy sources. Despite the criticisms of Bitcoin’s energy intensity, the study provided a more balanced view of Bitcoin by showing the potential benefits BTC can bring to the energy industry.
According to the report, Bitcoin mining can reduce global emissions by up to 8% by 2030. This can be done by converting the world’s wasted methane emissions into less harmful emissions. The report cited a theoretical case saying that using captured methane to power Bitcoin mining operations can reduce the amount of methane vented into the atmosphere.
The paper also presented other opportunities for Bitcoin to contribute to the energy sector. According to the report, Bitcoin can contribute to energy efficiency through electricity grid management by using Bitcoin miners and transferring heat from miners to greenhouses.
“We have shown that while Bitcoin is a consumer of electricity, this does not translate to it being a high emitter of carbon dioxide and other atmospheric pollutants. Bitcoin can be the catalyst to a cleaner, more energy-abundant future for all,” the authors wrote.
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What volatility? Bitcoin price dismisses FOMC, Mt. Gox with $26.7K dip
Bitcoin slipped from $27,000 on Sep. 21 as the dust settled on the latest United States macroeconomic events.
Bitcoin: "Rangebound until proven otherwise"
Data showed BTC price strength waning prior to the Wall Street open, down by around 1.5% on the day.
Bitcoin had delivered a cool reaction to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pause, and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and press conference likewise failed to spark major volatility.
Contrary to the expectations of many, BTC price action acted as if no catalysts were present at all. Later, news that payouts to creditors of defunct exchange Mt. Gox had been delayed by a year also went unnoticed by markets.
“The Fed's announcement of a rate pause caught exactly no-one by surprise,” popular trader Jelle summarized to X subscribers.
“Price is still in the same spot, but at least now we don't have FOMC hanging over our heads. Rangebound until proven otherwise.”
Jelle’s underlying longer-term roadmap remained bullish, suggesting an exit higher from the current structure, in play for more than a year, was still possible.
Continuing, fellow trader Crypto Tony reiterated the importance of maintaining $26,800 into the weekly close.
“So my plan was to long while we remained above $26,800 and thus far that is what we are doing,” he commented on the day.
“Certainly came down a bit so up to the bulls now to end this week on a bullish high.”
BTC monthly close focus sharpens
Covering the impetus for the post-Fed drop, trader Crypto Ed suggested that the prior tap of month-to-date highs could be cause for suspicion.
On longer timeframes, trader and analyst was also conservative, preserving his existing theory of BTC price downside to come.
On the monthly chart, he added, support at $27,150 had flipped to resistance.
“The BTC Monthly level of ~27150 was lost as support last month,” part of his commentary from the past 24 hours read.
“Now $BTC is rejecting from the same level ~$27150 is acting as resistance for the time being.”
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Stanford to return millions in crypto donations from FTX
The California-based Stanford University said it plans to return all funds it received from the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX, according to a report from Bloomberg.
Stanford received a total of $5.5 million in gifts from FTX-related entities between November 2021 and May 2022. In an email statement on Sept. 19, a university spokesperson said:
“We have been in discussions with attorneys for the FTX debtors to recover these gifts and we will be returning the funds in their entirety.”
The statement from Stanford clarified that it “received gifts from the FTX Foundation and FTX-related companies largely for pandemic-related prevention and research.”
Both parents of former FTX CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried, Alan Bankman and Barbara Fried, are legal scholars who have taught at Stanford Law School.
Stanford’s renouncement of monetary support from FTX comes as SBF’s parents are accused of stealing millions from the crypto exchange.
FTX debtors launched a lawsuit on Sept. 18 against the two, alleging they misappropriated funds via their involvement with the exchange to “enrich themselves, directly and indirectly, by millions of dollars,” according to the court papers. Bankman has been alleged to have been a “de facto officer” at FTX Group.
Court documents from these latest accusations claim that Bankman included Fried when he raised concerns regarding his annual salary of $200,000 that were not addressed by SBF or FTX US.
According to the documents, Bankman was expecting an annual salary of $1 million.
On Sept. 19, SBF’s lawyers argued in front of a three-judge panel for early release from jail in order to prepare for his upcoming trial scheduled to begin in October.
One of the judges in the hearing reportedly said the argument played by SBF’s legal team regarding his First Amendment rights “has no play anymore” due to his attempts to intimidate witness and former CEO of Alameda Research Caroline Ellison.
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Judges weigh early release for Sam Bankman-Fried as lawyers push First Amendment issues: Report
A three-judge panel from the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has reportedly taken arguments from lawyers representing former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) under advisement in considering releasing him from jail prior to his October trial.
SBF's defense team and the U.S. Attorney's office were each given roughly five minutes to argue before a panel of judges on Sept. 19. One of the judges reportedly claimed SBF's legal team's First Amendment argument "has no play anymore" based on Bankman-Fried's alleged attempts to intimidate witnesses including Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research.
Lawyers representing Bankman-Fried pushed for release due to the need for Internet access in preparation for trial, also claiming the U.S. District Court "erred" in denying their First Amendment arguments for release. Bankman-Fried previously admitted to releasing Ellison's private journals to a New York Times reporter, resulting in some of its contents being published.
Assistant U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon reportedly acknowledged "there have been some issues with the Internet" during SBF's confinement at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn but suggested he had had time to prepare his case.
"The incident with Ms. Ellison shows an intent to interfere with a fair trial," said Sassoon. "The judge was correct to say the 1st Amendment had nothing to do with it. It was tampering. Counsel does not dispute that the content put Ms. Ellison in an unfavorable light."
Bankman-Fried has argued his time in jail violated his First Amendment rights and impaired his ability to properly prepare for his trial, scheduled to begin on Oct. 3. A judge denied his lawyers' initial appeal for release on Sept. 6, prompting the move to the three-judge panel. It's unclear when the panel will reach a decision on the former FTX CEO's release, likely one of his last opportunities to be freed ahead of trial.
The October trial will be the first of two for the former FTX CEO. The first trial will deal with seven fraud charges related to his management of user funds at crypto exchange FTX and Alameda. The second trial, expected to start in March 2024, deals with five additional criminal charges.
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Thailand to start taxing overseas income next year, including from crypto
Thailand’s Revenue Department is planning to impose personal income tax on the foreign revenues, including those made from crypto trading, of any person who resides in Thailand for more than 180 days.
According to the Sept 19 report from the Bangkok Post, the new rule will take effect on Jan. 1, 2024, with the first tax forms, including overseas income to be delivered in 2025.
Under the previous regulation, only the foreign income, remitted to Thailand in the year of earning, was taxed. The new rule closes this loophole and will oblige an individual to declare any income, earned overseas, even if it wasn't going to be used in the local economy. A Finance Ministry official explained this logic to journalists:
“The principle of tax is that you must pay tax on income you earn from abroad no matter how you earn it and regardless of the tax year in which the money is earned”.
According to other Bangkok Post sources, the policy specifically targets residents trading in foreign stock markets through foreign brokerages, cryptocurrency traders, and Thais with offshore accounts.
In July, Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obliged digital asset service providers to offer adequate warnings highlighting risks associated with cryptocurrency trading. It has also prohibited any forms of crypto lending services.
However, the trend for tight scrutiny over the crypto industry might change with the recent election of the new prime minister. Real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, elected to lead the Thai parliament, participated in a $225 million raise for a crypto-friendly investment management firm XSpring Capital and even issued its own token through XSpring in 2022.
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Nine Senate Dems Drum Support for Warren’s Crypto Bill
Senator Elizabeth Warren has garnered further support in the Senate for her soon-to-be-released Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Bill.
This is contained in a press release from Warren's office. According to the document, nine democratic senators have pitched their tents with Warren.
The Senators are Gary Peters, Dick Durbin, Jeanne Shaheen, Tina Smith, Bob Casey, Richard Blumenthal, alongside Senator Angus King representing Maine.
This new group joins well-known supporters like Roger Marshall, Joe Manchin, and Lindsey Graham in calling for greater regulatory clarity in the nascent crypto industry.
The Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering bill, first promoted as Digital Assets Sanctions Compliance Enhancement Act in March 2022, is laser-focused on curbing illicit financial trends rearing their heads in the crypto space.
The bill will provide the necessary coverage to close any loopholes that enable criminals to move funds illicitly without US government clearance.
The bipartisan coalition bill will better propel the crypto market to comply with globally accepted anti-money laundering (AML) rules. It also seeks to impose stricter restrictions on terrorism financing, aligning with the AMF/CFT frameworks.
In addition, the bill is expected to direct the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) to tackle crypto transactions that are executed using privacy platforms and anonymity-enabling technologies.
Providing context on the need for such strong measures, Warren stated that blockchain assets were enabling tools for drug lords, rogue nations, ransomware gangs, and internet fraudsters.
Meanwhile, Senator Joe Manchin was more equivocal on what the coalition bill aims to foster.
He believes the bill will make it easier to curb terrorist enablers and rogue state actors like Russia and North Korea.
Manchin also pointed out that getting the bill to the floor of the Senate was a matter of national security and can no longer be delayed.
Warren's Bill Still Needed
The bill is the latest strategy to bring the crypto market under the purview of the US government for more sustained market growth.
Despite stronger security measures instituted on cryptocurrency exchanges and decentralized trading platforms, the crypto market is still an attractive honeypot for cybercriminals.
A CipherTrace's Cryptocurrency Crime and Anti-Money Laundering report found that crypto hacks in 2023 led to $383 million in losses.
The results of this study demonstrate that more needs to be done to ensure the safety of funds and data. Senator Warren's coalition bill aims to address this issue and much more.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Kiyosaki's Nod, Warren's Bill Rises
Robert Kiyosaki's Perspective on Fiat Currency vs. Cryptocurrency
Renowned author Robert Kiyosaki has expressed his support for cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, labeling traditional fiat currencies as "criminal money."
Kiyosaki, who predicts Bitcoin will reach $120,000 within the next year, cautions about an imminent economic crisis and advocates for digital assets as a protective refuge.
His optimism for Bitcoin arises from his faith in its resilience and its potential to bounce back after market slumps, primarily influenced by upcoming halving events.
He contends that fiat currencies, including the US dollar, are headed for depreciation due to extensive monetary injections into the economy, resulting in rampant inflation.
Although Kiyosaki links inflation and its anticipated repercussions to the green energy policies under President Joe Biden, recent data challenges this claim.
Bank of America states that such policies have generated over 86,000 clean energy jobs, 50,000 of which are in the electric vehicle sector, with projections of an additional 1.5 million jobs in the upcoming decade.
Kiyosaki's consistent critique of the US government's and the Federal Reserve's monetary strategies aligns with his prediction of a substantial economic downturn. He champions Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as sturdy assets in the face of the forecasted storm.
In light of these developments, BTC/USD is witnessing a favourable price movement today, with investors increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a potential safeguard against fiat currency devaluation and broader economic unpredictability.
Cryptocurrency Bill by Senator Elizabeth Warren Gains Momentum Among US Lawmakers
Nine US lawmakers have expressed their support for the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which is a bipartisan bill that was reintroduced by Senators Elizabeth Warren, Roger Marshall, Joe Manchin, and Lindsey Graham.
The aim of this legislation is to enforce anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations for cryptocurrency companies.
However, experts are concerned about how this move could potentially impact the privacy and personal freedom of cryptocurrency users.
The bill was initially introduced by Senator Warren in December, and then reintroduced in July. Recently, several additional senators have announced their support for it.
The bill has received endorsements from various organizations, such as the Bank Policy Institute and Transparency International US, all of which are focused on curbing illicit financial activities that involve cryptocurrencies.
This news may have contributed to the recent rise in BTC/USD prices, signaling increased regulatory attention in the crypto sector and potentially boosting investor confidence in cryptocurrency markets' legitimacy and security.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin's technical analysis shows a slight bearish tendency. Currently, Bitcoin is stable near the $26,800 resistance, just above the $26,500 support, indicating a potential double-top pattern.
An existing downtrend at $26,750 might limit its ascent. Breaking it could aim for $27,000, with $27,600 as a major barrier before reaching $28,000.
Conversely, failing to exceed the $26,750 could lead to a decline to $26,000 or even $25,250. Several technical indicators hint at a possible bullish shift.
The $26,500 level is pivotal for investors: prices above suggest buying, while below signal selling.
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FTX Claims Portal Back in Action After Cybersecurity Incident in August
FTX has reopened its customer claims portal, unfreezing user accounts that were affected by a cybersecurity incident in August.
In a recent statement, FTX clarified that the freezing of customer accounts was a precautionary measure and emphasized that additional security measures have been implemented on the claims platform to ensure the safety of user accounts.
According to FTX, account holders of the defunct crypto exchange can now access their accounts and proceed with the claims process for the digital assets they held on the exchange prior to its bankruptcy filing in November 2022.
The claims portal is available to individuals who hold accounts with FTX, FTX US, Blockfolio, FTX EU, FTX Japan, and Liquid.
Users affected by the incident can now resume their claims process and seek compensation for their losses.
In August, Kroll, the third-party agent handling creditor claims for the FTX bankruptcy, revealed that a "SIM swapping" attack had allowed a threat actor to gain access to certain files containing personal information of bankruptcy claimants in the cases of BlockFi, FTX, and Genesis.
As a result, Kroll froze the affected user accounts. However, FTX clarified that no passwords or KYC information related to FTX were exposed in the breach.
FTX customers have until September 29 to file a proof of claim with Kroll. While the extent of the value that creditors will be able to recover remains uncertain, the judge overseeing FTX's bankruptcy case recently approved the estate's plan to initiate the liquidation of its digital assets.
Over $16B Worth of Claims Filed Against FTX and FTX.US
In a recent court filing, FTX revealed that 36,075 customer claims, worth $16 billion, have been filed against the exchange and its US arm.
At the time, the company said 10% of those claims had been agreed on.
The filing further noted that 2,300 non-customer claims had been filed against the entity, worth $65 billion, including those from Genesis, Celsius, and Voyager.
Moreover, it was revealed that FTX holds approximately $7 billion in assets, including $1.16 billion worth of Solana (SOL) tokens and $560 million in Bitcoin (BTC).
The company said it has managed to secure $1.5 billion in cash in addition to the $1.1 billion it held as of November 11, when it filed for bankruptcy.
FTX also possesses $3.4 billion worth of various cryptocurrencies as of August 31, which include over 1,300 lesser-known and potentially less liquid tokens, such as MAPS and Serum (SRM).
On Wednesday, a judge in the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware ruled that FTX can sell and invest its crypto holdings to pay back creditors.
Justin Sun, the founder of Tron Network, has said that he is considering making a bid for the assets held by FTX to reduce the impact a sale could have on the market as he aims to ignite growth in the sector.
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U.S. Democrat’s Bill Urges Exchanges to Share Off-Chain Crypto Transactions to Regulators
U.S. Rep. Don Beyer, a Democrat serving the 8th District of Virginia, is pushing a bill that would establish centrally-accessible repositories for off-chain cryptocurrency transaction data.
The bill, dated Sept. 27 – the Off-Chain Digital Commodity Transaction Reporting Act – urges crypto trading platforms to “report all transactions to a repository registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).”
Usually, off-chain transactions aren’t written on the blockchain, leaving no network record of the transaction’s financial details. As a result, off-chain solutions might be more vulnerable to hacking and data breaches depending on the specific implementation.
“With the emergence of trading platforms and a desire to increase transaction times and lower costs, thousands of transactions occur “off-chain” each day and are unrecorded on the publicly viewable blockchain,” the legislator said.
The Congressman’s bill is a “common-sense measure” to resolve privacy issues and “restore some transparency and confidence” among users and across the crypto market, said Beyer in a separate statement.
“Unfortunately, internal record keeping among these private entities can vary wildly, and this can leave investors and consumers vulnerable to fraud and manipulation. This bill is a common-sense measure to restore some transparency and confidence to the digital asset market.”
Beyer hopes that pushing off-chain transaction data into repositories where regulators can see would help stop FTX-like collapse.
What Does the Bill Say?
Each digital asset swap, whether cleared or uncleared, shall be reported to a registered swap data repository, the detailed billnoted. Additionally, sales of digital commodities should be stated to the crypto repository for transactions.
Trading platforms are required to report every transaction as soon as the transaction is executed, it added.
“This legislation would require that all off-chain digital asset transactions be reported within 24 hours to a CFTC-registered trade repository, similar to the requirements for virtually all securities and swaps transactions,” Beyer wrote.
In 2021, Beyer introduced the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, to protect consumers and promote innovation.
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Bitcoin to $27K next? One-week BTC price highs precede Fed's Powell
Bitcoin hit new weekly highs after the Sep. 28 Wall Street open as markets awaited fresh cues from the United States Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin summons volatility ahead of Powell speech
Data showed BTC price strength staging a comeback on the day, having delivered what some referred to as a classic “pump and dump” 24 hours prior.
During that performance, highs of $26,823 appeared on Bitstamp as the result of 2% daily gains before Bitcoin retraced all of its progress.
A slower grind higher then took hold, with bulls edging closer to $27,000 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin appeared to react well to the latest U.S. macroeconomic data prints.
GDP for Q2 grew by 1.7% year on year — below the projected 2.0% — while Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data for August came in in line with expectations.
“Bring on the volatility,” Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, told X subscribers beforehand.
Data from the Binance BTC/USD order book uploaded by Alan showed little by way of resistance standing in the way of spot price under the $27,000 mark.
The macro data constituted just the prelude to the day’s main event, meanwhile, with Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, due to comment later on.
Powell, whose recent words failed to deliver noticeable volatility to crypto markets, was due to speak at the Fed’s “Conversation with the Chair: A Teacher Town Hall Meeting" event in Washington, D.C. at 4pm Eastern time.
BTC price not out of the woods
Commenting on the state of play on Bitcoin markets, popular trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades was more optimistic around the strength of the day’s move compared to Sep. 27.
“Back to yesterday's highs but with considerably less Open Interest,” he noted.
“No doubt there's longs chasing here but it's less frothy than it was yesterday. Would still like to see longs chill out to not get a full retrace later on.”
An accompanying chart tracked open interest as BTC/USD headed higher.
Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile flagged key resistance trend lines now in play, with Bitcoin required to overcome them to effect a more substantial trend change.
Elsewhere in the day’s analysis, Rekt Capital acknowledged that $29,000 could make a reappearance and still form part of a broader comedown for Bitcoin.
“It's important to remember that Bitcoin could technically rally to even as high as ~$29,000 to form a new Lower High (Phase A-B),” he explainedalongside a chart.
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Crypto exchange Kraken plans move into US stock trading: Report
Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken reportedly plans to offer users trading services for stocks listed in the United States and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.
According to a Sept. 27 Bloomberg report, the U.S.-based exchange planned to launch its trading services in the U.S. and United Kingdom sometime in 2024 through a division called Kraken Securities. Kraken’s expansion of investment vehicles beyond cryptocurrencies would require licensing from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and financial regulators in the U.K., which the exchange reportedly already holds.
The reported move by the crypto exchange came roughly a year after FTX US — now defunct — announced plans to launch a stock trading platform. Certain apps like Robinhood already offer both stock and crypto trading services, but largely U.S.-based digital asset exchanges stick with crypto and related offerings.
On Sept. 26, Kraken announced that it had received licenses in both Spain and Ireland related to offering digital asset services. The company also faces a civil suit brought by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission for allegedly failing to comply with design and distribution obligations for one of its trading products.
In February, Kraken reached an agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to pay $30 million in disgorgement, prejudgment interest and civil penalties as well as halt its staking services and programs to U.S. clients.
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Bitcoin price to $30K in October, says analyst as BTC price climbs 2%
Bitcoin broke higher into the Sep. 27 Wall Street open as one analyst predicted a return to $30,000 in October.
BTC price reaches for $27,000 in fresh uptick
Data followed BTC price action as bulls gathered steam to reach $26,823 on Bitstamp.
The 2% jump to near-weekly highs came as market commentators already eyed thin overhead resistance, with a breakout on the cards should it not be replenished.
“Ask liquidity is pretty wide and thin here again so likely a move higher is going to come from perps,” popular trader Skew explained, continuing the topic.
Skew added that “this can create some good opportunities with inefficiencies & potential premiums later.”
On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators revealed an uptick in activity from one specific class of whales well known for its impact on BTC price action (PA).
Material Indicators further noted that the move above $26,500 had invalidated a warning signalwhich came on the back of a daily chart “death cross” at the start of the week.
"Purple buys dips and sells rips. I'm happy to swim in their wake," co-founder Keith Alan confirmed.
“There we go, Bitcoin is up and breaks above crucial areas,” analyst Michaël van de Poppe told X subscribers in part of the day’s coverage.
“I'd prefer to see $26,500 and, if we do, we're likely to see $30,000 in October.”
Crypto traders dodge mass liquidations
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile confirmed that short liquidations remained modest.
Around $13 million in BTC shorts had been liquidated for the day at the time of writing, with the cross-crypto tally at $39 million.
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FTX’s former external legal team disputes involvement in fraud allegations
A law firm that previously provided services to the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX has refuted a class-action lawsuit brought against it, claiming that it assisted in the exchange’s alleged fraudulent activities.
According to a Sept. 21 court filing, United States-based law firm Fenwick & West denies all accusations of misconduct related to the provision of legal services during FTX operations:
“It is black-letter law that an attorney cannot be held liable for conspiracy or aiding and abetting a client’s wrong “‘as long as [his] conduct falls within the scope of the representation of the client.’”
The plaintiffs contend that while Fenwick provided regular legal services within the bounds of the law, Sam Bankman-Fried allegedly misused the advice to advance his fraudulent activities.
They further argued that Fenwick exceeded the norm in its service offerings to FTX.
The plaintiffs allege that Fenwick can be held liable because it purportedly “provided services to the FTX Group entities that went well beyond those a law firm should and usually does provide,” the filing states.
It further claims that employees of Fenwick chose to depart from the firm and join FTX voluntarily.
Additionally, the filing reiterated that Fenwick assisted in establishing corporations used by Bankman-Fried in his fraud and advised FTX on regulatory compliance in the evolving crypto landscape.
However, Fenwick argued it should not bear liability as it was not the sole law firm representing FTX. It asserts that it played a relatively minor role in providing various aspects of legal advice to the bankrupt exchange.
“If Plaintiffs’ allegations were sufficient to state a claim against Fenwick for conspiracy and aiding and-abetting liability, then any lawyer could be hauled into court and forced to answer for his client’s misconduct. That is not the law.“
This comes after FTX debtors filed a lawsuit againstformer employees of the Hong Kong-incorporated company Salameda, which was previously affiliated with the FTX group
FTX initiated legal action to reclaim $157.3 million, alleging that the funds were illicitly withdrawn shortly before the exchange’s bankruptcy filing.
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Coinbase CEO warns against AI regulation, calls for decentralization
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of crypto exchange Coinbase, expressed his stance on artificial intelligence (AI) regulation in a recent post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
On Sept. 23, Armstrong explained that he believes that AI should not be regulated. According to the Coinbase CEO, the AI space needs to develop as soon as possible because of reasons such as national security. In addition, Armstrong also noted that despite the best intentions of regulators, regulation “has unintended consequences,” arguing that it kills innovation and competition.
The Coinbase executive cited the internet as an example. Armstrong believes there was a “golden age of innovation” on the internet and software because it was not regulated. The Coinbase CEO suggested the same should be applied to AI technology.
Furthermore, Armstrong also presented an alternative to regulation in terms of protecting the AI space. According to the executive, it would be better to “decentralize it and open source it to let the cat out of the bag.”
Meanwhile, various jurisdictions across the globe have either started to regulate AI or express concerns about its potential effects. On Aug. 15, China’s provisional guidelines for AI activity and management came into effect. The regulations were published on July 10 and were a joint effort between six of the country’s government agencies. This is the first set of AI rules implemented within the country amid the recent AI boom.
In the United Kingdom, the competition regulator studied AI in order to identify its potential impact on competition and consumers. On Sept. 18, the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority concluded that while AI has the potential to change people’s work and lives, the changes may happen too fast and could have a significant impact on competition.
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Bitcoin fails to recoup post-Fed losses as $20K BTC price returns to radar
Bitcoin circled lower after the Sept. 21 Wall Street open as $20,000 BTC price predictions resurfaced.
Bitcoin analysis: Hype, FOMO and a “slow grind” to $28,500
Data covered a lackluster 24 hours for BTC price action, with $27,000 fading from view.
The aftermath of the United States Federal Reserve interest rates pause offered little for Bitcoin bulls, BTC/USD having dipped almost $700 the day prior.
Now, market participants returned to a more conservative outlook in the absence of tangible volatility.
“Something like this over the course of October would be perfect i would say,” popular trader Crypto Tony told X (formerly Twitter) subscribers.
“Slow grind up to $28,500, followed by hype and FOMO, to then dump it once more.”
Monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile eyed a so-called “death cross” on the weekly chart.
The death cross occurs when certain moving averages (MAs) collide, and here, the 21-week MA was on course to head below the 200-week equivalent.
“The 21-Week and the 200-Week Moving Averages are on a collision course for a DeathCross on the BTC Weekly candle Close/Open,” it warned in an X post on the day.
Material Indicators referenced a potential lower low (LL) at the weekly close.
“The 50-Week MA, may provide some temporary support and even trigger a short term rally, but if PA takes us there, it will print a LL which I believe opens the door to grind down to test $20k,” it added.
On the horizon was the liquidation of crypto assetsby defunct exchange FTX — an event that could contribute to BTC selling pressure.
“If there is a base case for hopium, it’s that FTX liquidators don’t want to see too much price erosion before they start distributing, and may try to prop price up a little longer. That’s purely speculative, but not out of the realm of possibilities,” the X post concluded.
Traders eye bargain BTC price levels
More optimistic takes included that from popular trader and analyst CryptoCon, who maintained that Bitcoin was in the first innings of its next bull market.
“Doesn’t get much simpler than this. Bitcoin early and late Bull Market in green, Bear Market ends in red,” he commented alongside a chart shortly following the Fed news.
Just as confident was fellow trader Jelle, who suspected a prime buying opportunity for prospective BTC investors at current prices.
BTC/USD traded at around $26,600 at the time of writing, making September gains equal to around 2.5% — still Bitcoin’s best month since 2016.
Per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, Bitcoin has delivered losses every September since.
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Bitcoin ETFs or not, don’t expect a ‘sexy’ crypto bull run — Concordium founder
The next crypto bull run will look nothing like the last one, and investors should tame their expectations of an imminent rocketing of cryptocurrency prices.
At least that’s what Lars Seier Christensen, founder of enterprise blockchain Concordium, told in a recent interview.
As the majority of the crypto market looks to the swathe of proposed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds with bullishness, Christensen is doubtful their approval will be an immediately meaningful driver for the crypto markets.
“Even if you do get a Bitcoin rally, I don’t think you should naturally assume that everything is going to rally with it.”
“Does that necessarily mean that Ethereum and a lot of the older altcoins are going to rally on the back of it too? I think that’s nearly certain not going to happen,” he added.
Christensen said that, while digital asset prices have dampened over the last 18 months, in contrast, there’s an unabated interest in blockchain technology from the corporate side.
This means that the next big step for the industry won’t be marked by a particularly “sexy” rally, where prices of crypto assets surge like they did in 2021 — but rather a more subdued growth that will occur gradually over the next 18 months, noting:
“The only reason corporate types need a crypto asset is in order to execute what they want to do on a given blockchain. So, I think it’s very clear that you need to be aware that they’re not in desperate need for a given crypto to increase significantly in value.”
Not everyone would be inclined to agree with Christensen, however.
Ben Simpson, founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift, said there’s a wealth of data and indicators that suggest that we’re already witnessing the initial stages of a Bitcoin bull market.
“The drawdown from the all-time high chart and market-value-to-realized-value ratio suggest we’re in the final stages of accumulation, often a precursor to a bull market,” explained Simpson.
When it comes to the assets most primed for a major boom, Simpson believes the next bull market will blow wind into the sails of Bitcoin, Ether and application-specific tokens and sectors such as gaming.
“DeFi tokens are risky but offer significant upside, and Bitcoin, I believe, emerges as the ’silent winner’ amid broader adoption and one I’m most bullish on.”
The last two-year period has been tough for the crypto industry. An increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve combined with a number of high-profile collapses, including the likes of FTX and Celsius Network, have seen investment in the industry dwindle, bringing down the prices of crypto assets along with it.
With the United States Federal Reserve deciding to press pause on any interest rate hikes earlier in the week, eToro Markets analyst Josh Gilbert views the broader macro outlook with a sense of optimism.
“We’ve finally got an improving macro environment with rate cuts on the horizon from central banks globally. As rates begin to fall and inflation subsides, investors will take on more risk, deploying more capital into financial markets — and crypto will be front and center,” he said.
Like many market commentators in recent months, Gilbert asserted that next year looks primed for a rally.
“2024 could be a strong year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The Bitcoin halving is the centerpiece of this theory, and it’s the major catalyst optimistic investors are focused on.”
However, Tina Teng, a market analyst from CMC Markets, explained that it’s far too early to start worrying about whether or not massive gains are on the horizon. Instead, investors should be bracing themselves for a new wave of uncertainty.
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Binance CEO refutes report on $250M loan to BAM Management
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao has disputed a recent report that claimed the executive took a $250-million loan from BAM Management, a firm that acts as Binance.US’ holding company.
On Sept. 19, a report from the media outlet Decrypt interpreted court documents related to a lawsuit between Binance and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The report said that Binance.US’ legal team claimed in the documents that BAM Management US Holdings “issued a $250 million convertible note to Zhao in December.” However, Zhao disputed the report and expressed his rebuttal on X (formerly Twitter).
In a post, Zhao shared a screenshot of the report and said that the outlet “got the direction wrong.” According to the Binance CEO, the loan was the other way around. He explained in the X post that he was the one who gave BAM Management $250 million as a loan and claimed that he had not yet taken it back.
The Binance executive also implied in the post that there is a lot of “wrong information” in the report. However, Zhao did not further specify what other details of the report were inaccurate.
Amid its legal battle with Binance, the SEC has claimed repeatedly that it has been struggling to extract information from Binance and Binance.US since the start of the lawsuit. Because of this, the SEC has filed a motion to require Binance to make its executives more available for depositions and hand over detailed information. However, in a recent hearing to discuss the SEC’s motion, a judge said that he wasn’t “inclined to allow the inspection” at the moment.
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Bitcoin analysis predicts 'spicy' BTC price into FOMC as $27K holds
Bitcoin held $27,000 into Sep. 20 as the key macroeconomic date of the cryptocurrency trading week arrived.
Market "set to accommodate" BTC price volatility
Data showed the BTC price focus shifting upward compared to the week prior.
Crypto markets showed conviction into the decision on interest rates by the United States Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was due to announce its latest changes at 2pm Eastern time on the day.
As reported, expectations almost unanimously favored rates staying at current levels, with the odds still at 99% at the time of writing, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“The market is pricing a 99% probability that the Fed are on hold at this meeting. And the data is conducive for that, core CPI inflation is now running at the Fed’s target on a 3-month annualized basis,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro told X subscribers in part of his latest analysis.
“Potentially the first meeting where the Fed recognize that inflation is trending on the right path…”
Despite this, the event was tipped to deliver short-term volatility.
Analyzing the state of the BTC/USD order book on largest global exchange Binance, monitoring resource Material Indicators said that liquidity around spot price was noticeably thin.
“If one thing in particular stands out, it's that liquidity is thinly distributed through the range,” part of its commentary stated.
“We could see some walls go up, but for now it appears the order book is set to accommodate more volatility.”
Material Indicators added that the subsequent speech and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell should lead to further “spicy” BTC price action.
An accompanying chart showed some bid-side liquidity parked at $26,650, while substantial bids still only at $25,000. To the upside, sellers lay in wait at $27,450 — the local BTC price high from September.
Bitcoin traders eye key levels
Continuing, others hoped for some range levels to be challenged as part of the FOMC reaction.
“Good chance we take out some stops today during the volatility,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested.
Fellow trader Jelle said that he expected “choppy waters” on Bitcoin, while scanning broader exchange activity, trader Skew predicted a lively FOMC trading environment.
Crypto Tony meanwhile flagged $26,800 as the line in the sand for Bitcoin bulls to protect.
“This is what i am looking for to remain in my long position. Must hold above $26,800 support zone, or we risk creating a deviation,” he commentedalongside his own chart.
Continuing, others hoped for some range levels to be challenged as part of the FOMC reaction.
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Eco-Friendly Mining: Bitcoin Miners Seek Savings Through Alternative Energy
Amid recent financial setbacks and growing concerns over the environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining, Bitcoin (BTC) miners are looking for innovative ways to reduce costs and operate sustainably.
Bitcoin mining is an energy intensive process, making power the biggest expense for mining operations.
In order to address this issue, mining companies are seeking low-cost power sources to remain profitable and competitive, with renewable energy becoming the preferred choice for its cost-effectiveness and environmental benefits.
Steven Lubka, the managing director of Swan Bitcoin, a Bitcoin-focused financial services company, said that the average cost of mining a single Bitcoin is around $26,000.
However, mining companies that utilize renewable energy sources are witnessing costs ranging from $5,000 to $15,000 per BTC.
Riot Blockchain, a publicly traded Bitcoin mining company based in the United States, said wind and solar energy generated in Texas allow them to achieve some of the lowest mining costs.
The company said in its Q2 investor deck that they spend $8,389 to mine 1 Bitcoin.
According to Kent Halliburton, president and chief operating officer of Sazmining, a hosted Bitcoin mining provider, electricity has always been the biggest expense for mining operations.
Halliburton explained that Bitcoin miners are naturally motivated to find the lowest-cost power, and renewable energy sources often provide excess electricity that is a perfect fit for mining.
Data from the Bitcoin Mining Council indicates that 59% of mining operations are carbon-free, with this number growing at a rate of nearly 4.5% per year.
Halliburton emphasized that all of Sazmining's mining operations in Wisconsin and Paraguay utilize excess hydroelectricity to power their activities.
Shift Toward Alternative Energy is a Long-Term Trend
The shift towards alternative energy sources appears to be a long-term trend among miners aiming for sustainable success.
Phil Harvey, the CEO of Sabre56, a crypto mining infrastructure provider, said that the company is working with dozens of mining companies to set up machines across its facilities in Wyoming and Ohio.
Sabre56's facility in Gillette, Wyoming, known as "Bonepile," houses nearly 2,200 mining machines powered by a combination of energy sources, including a substantial contribution from renewable energy.
The facility employs a forced-air design that facilitates cooling and exhausts hot air naturally through overpressure.
Meanwhile, OceanBit, a company specializing in renewable energy platforms using ocean thermal sources, is taking a unique approach by integrating Bitcoin mining into its ocean thermal energy power plant design.
Michael Bennett, co-founder of OceanBit, explained that ocean thermal energy is an untapped resource with vast potential for generating electricity using the temperature difference in ocean water.
By combining ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) with Bitcoin mining, Bennett believes they can scale the energy source globally and solve commercial challenges for both industries.
Likewise, Pennsylvanian crypto mining company Stronghold Digital Mining is utilizing coal refuse, a byproduct of coal mining, to power its operations.
The company is working with local authorities to clean up piles of waste coal that have caused water pollution and air pollution through spontaneous combustion.
Stronghold converts the coal refuse into power through specialized facilities and either supplies it to the local grid or uses it for Bitcoin mining. While this method helps clean up coal refuse, it still involves burning hydrocarbons and poses certain environmental challenges.
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SEC Challenges Binance US's Objections in Latest Court Motion – Here's What You Need to Know
Changpeng Zhao, Co-founder & CEO, Binance at Centre Stage during the opening night of Web Summit 2022 at the Altice Arena in Lisbon, Portugal. Photo by Stephen McCarthy/Web Summit via Sportsfile
In a new development today, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has asked a court to dismiss the objections raised by Binance US regarding the regulator's recent legal motion.
According to CoinDesk, the SEC claimed that an audit of Binance US revealed difficulties in confirming that the company was fully backed by collateral. Binance US has countered these requests, arguing that the SEC is overstepping its jurisdiction.
The Points of Contention Between Binance US and the SEC
Binance US argued that the SEC's demands are too broad and fall outside the scope of their authority. Specifically, they claimed that the SEC was asking for documents and information that were not within its control and were better suited for other parties.
"BAM objects to the Requests to the extent that they are vague, ambiguous, overbroad, lacking in particularity or oppressive and/or call for information or documents beyond the relevant scope of or disproportionate to the needs of the Consent Order, as well as on the grounds that they are unduly burdensome because they would impose a significant expense and inconvenience on BAM." Binance US stated in today's court filing.
The SEC initially filed a lawsuit against Binance in June. The lawsuit also implicates Binance Holdings, the global parent company of Binance US, and its founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao. The central allegation is that they operated an unlicensed securities exchange.
SEC's Accusations Regarding Asset Custody
The SEC is not pulling any punches in its critique of Binance US's asset management. They are asking the court to disregard Binance US's objections to their motions for depositions, inspections, and communication from the exchange. The SEC has even gone so far as to call the company's asset custody "shaky."
In today's court filing, the SEC has asked a D.C. court to allow an inspection into Binance US. The regulator asserted that Binance US has not provided all the necessary documents for ongoing legal procedures, reinforcing the SEC's position that an inspection of Binance US is urgently needed.
Is Binance US Safe?
The SEC has expressed concerns about Ceffu, a service that was rebranded earlier this year from Binance Custody. According to the SEC, Ceffu might be facilitating the transfer of U.S. customer funds out of the country, which would be a breach of a prior agreement.
The SEC stated in its filing: "The SEC seeks an order compelling BAM to produce documents and communications concerning any entity providing it wallet custody software and related services."
The filing also accuses Binance US of providing "inconsistent representations about key facts, slow-rolled small productions of documents and information, and stonewalled on entire categories of information that would likely shed light on its shaky assertions concerning the custody of customer assets." They label Zhao as "an individual who views himself outside the jurisdiction of any court."
The SEC is looking to compel Binance US to furnish depositions, communications, and other relevant information for inspection. Failure to comply could lead to penalties for the crypto exchange. Given these recent developments, the topic of crypto regulation is becoming more prominent.
The tensions between the SEC and Binance US reflect broader concerns about the extent of oversight needed in the rapidly growing world of cryptocurrency.
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FTX Crypto Asset Sales Will Not Crash The Market: Coinbase Report
Digital asset exchange, Coinbase has said in a new report that a potential liquidation of FTX’s crypto holdings will not negatively affect the market.
This analysis comes after widespread fears that the liquidation of FTX digital assets to investors worth over $3.4 billion will lead to a sharp price drop depending on the asset’s weekly trade volumes.
According to the company, the sale will not cause significant changes in the market due to volume limits which are regulated in each phase of the liquidation.
At the start, the liquidations will be capped at $50 million per week and will further surge to a $100 million cap in the following weeks, unlike initial speculations of a whole $1.3 billion overnight sale.
Additionally, FTX debtors and their committees will need to approve a permanent $200 million per week with David Duong the head of institutional research adding that, “strict controls in place for selling certain ‘insider-affiliated’ tokens that require 10 days advance notice to these same committees.”
Still, on the terms, the company can enter into digital asset hedging contracts with a licensed advisor. This hedging contract is restricted to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) although a push for other coins will require the approval of creditors.
The firm is also expected to provide periodic reports (weekly and monthly) on balances, trades, sales, yields, market insights, and other revenue-generating sources.
A recent court order shows that the collapsed exchange can now sell its crypto holdings to pay back investors directly or through investments.
Bankruptcy proceedings spark market fears
The collapse of FTX in November 2022 has left several effects on the market ranging from the initial market downturn wiping billions away from the market to the recent fears surrounding the sale of its crypto holdings.
According to a recent court filing, the exchange holds about $7 billion in assets including cryptocurrencies, investments, and Bahamian properties.
The company’s BTC holdings are $560 million and $1.16 billion in Solana (SOL). Additionally, the exchanges hold about $4.5 billion in venture capital investments in several firms and real estate worth over $200 million.
Last week, experts speculated that the sale would have a significant impact on the market leading to Tron’s Justin Suncalling for more community support and stating that he could bid for some of the assets to reduce market impacts.
Solana makes up the bulk of FTX assets although a large part is locked up as part of the vesting schedule but this has not stopped it from significantly affecting the assets.
Last week, the price of SOL plunged 6% on fears of a massive FTX liquidation.
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How low can the Bitcoin price go?
Bitcoin price continues to tread at depressed levels in what has become one of the crypto market's quietest periods in history. Meanwhile, several technical and fractal setups suggest that the BTC/USD pair could drop to as low as $21,750 in the coming months.
Bear flag channel hints at $23K BTC price
Bitcoin has consolidated inside a horizontal trading range since mid-August 2023, defined by $26,670 as resistance and $25,650 as support. Briefly, BTC price broke out of the range in reaction to fundamental news, such as new Bitcoin ETF applications and the FTX liquidation fears.
But overall, traders have kept the BTC price inside the $25,650-26,670 range. Looking broadly, this range appears like a "bear flag," a bearish continuation pattern characterized by a consolidation channel forming after a strong downtrend.
As a rule of technical analysis, bear flags resolve after the price breaks out of their range to the downside and falls by as much as the previous downtrend's height. Applying these parameters to the ongoing Bitcoin price consolidation brings its bear flag target around $23,000.
In other words, BTC price can drop nearly 15% from current price levels by the end of the year.
Bitcoin's bear market support setup
Bitcoin's bear markets since 2017 have typically exhausted near a common ascending trendline support, as shown below. BTC price tested the trendline in November 2022 at around $16,750 and has since increased by 70%.
That said, Bitcoin may have already bottomed out in the ongoing bear market. However, the price will need to decisively break above its 0.236 Fib line near $28,350 to confirm its long-term bullish recovery based on the historical fractal — which it just failed to do.
Bitcoin now treads below the 0.236 Fib line, raising possibilities of a retreat toward the bear market trendline support that's also near $23,000.
Bitcoin "death cross" soon?
Bitcoin inches closer to forming a death cross between its 50-day (the red wave) and 200-day (the blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMA).
That is Bitcoin's third death cross formation during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike period, with the previous two crossovers preceding 17-18% price declines.
Therefore, should the fractal play out again, the bearish BTC price target in this case will be at around $21,750.
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DeFi economic activity drops 15% in August —VanEck
The decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has suffered more setbacks in August as on-chain economic activity dwindled. According to an analysis from investment manager firm VanEck, exchange volume declined to $52.8 billion in August, 15.5% lower than in July.
The findings are based on VanEck's MarketVector Decentralized Finance Leaders Index (MVDFLE), which tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid tokens on DeFi protocols, including Unisawp, Lido DAO, Maker, Aave, THORchain, and Curve DAO (CRV).
The DeFi Index underperformed Bitcoin and Ether in August, falling 21% in the month, notes the report. The results were exacerbated by UNI token negative performance of 33.5%, as investors sold off tokens to capture gains from July.
Another key metric for the ecosystem, the total value locked (TVL) declined 8% in August, from $40.8 billion to $37.5 billion, slightly outperforming Ethereum’s 10% slump in the month.
Even though DeFi tokens had poor performance in August, the ecosystem witnessed positive developments throughout the month, argues the analysis. These developments include Uniswap Labs' dismissal of a class action lawsuit, and Maker and Curve's stablecoin growth.
Recovering from a major exploit in late July, Curve Finance's stablecoin crvUSD saw a significant growth in August, achieving a new all-time high of $114 million borrowed. CrvUSD is pegged to the U.S. dollar and relies on a collateralized-debt-position (CDP) model. Meaning users deposit collateral, such as ETH, to borrow crvUSD.
"The growth of crvUSD has allowed it to become a significant contributor of revenue for the platform, with crvUSD fees exceeding fees collected from all non-mainnet liquidity pools in 3 of the 4 last weeks," reads the report. Curve Finance’s governance token, however, has not shown promising signs of recovery since the exploit, with its price falling 24% in August to $0.45.
VanEck analysis notes about CRV token performance:
"Due to the price decline, investors who bought CRV OTC from Michael Egorov last month are now only 12.5% above the water on their investment, with 5 months left until they can sell. If crvUSD can continue to grow to the point that it offsets the drop in exchange revenue caused by decreasing DeFi volume, CRV price may see some relief. Still, until then, declining DeFi volume remains a solid headwind for CRV appreciation."
Curve Finance's founder Michael Egorov had around $100 million in loans backed by 47% of the circulating supply of the protocol’s native token, CRV. As the CRV price dropped nearly 30% following the hack, fears of Egorov's collateralized loans liquidation sparked concerns of contagious effect across the DeFi ecosystem. To reduce his debt position, Egorov sold 39.25 million CRV tokens to several notable DeFi investors during the crisis.
Additionally, VanEck pointed out that current levels of global interest rates, in particular in the United States, continue to put pressure on stablecoins. The aggregate market capitalization of stablecoins fell 2% in August to $119.5 billion. "This is mainly a result of elevated interest rates in traditional finance, which have incentivized investors to dump their stablecoins and move into money market funds where they can receive ~5% risk-free yield," wrote the firm.
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