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Miner returns over $500k in BTC transaction fee overpayment to Paxos
The Bitcoin miner who received the 19.8 BTC in fees has returned the funds to blockchain infrastructure firm Paxos, after its claims that the company made the mistake of paying over $500,000 in BTC transfer fees.
On Sept. 10, the crypto community was puzzled after seeing a BTC transaction that paid around $500,000 in fees to move around $2,000, while the average network fee was around $2. Various speculations were raised, with some believing that the transaction was done by copy-pasting data and accidentally pasting an output into the fee box without double-checking.
On Sept. 13, Paxos announced that it was their server that made the transfer. Following its claim, the company assured its users that their funds were safe and that the funds belonged to Paxos. The company also clarified that PayPal was not involved in the mistake and admitted that the error was its own.
Almost a day after Paxos’ claims, the Bitcoin miner who received the funds went on X (formerly Twitter) to express frustrations after agreeing to refund the amount to Paxos. The miner asked their X followers what they would do in his stead, and a majority voted to just distribute the money to other Bitcoin miners.
However, this advice doesn't appear to have been taken. Blockchain data shared by Bitcoin explorer Mempool confirmed that the funds were indeed returned on Sept. 15.
Thousands of dollars in transaction fee mistakes have been lost before. Back in 2019, an Ethereum user lost almost $400,000 in Ether after making the mistake of pasting values in the wrong fields. Luckily, the Ethereum mining pool Sparkpool helped the user recover half of the funds lost.
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North Korea’s Lazarus Group responsible for $55M CoinEx hack: Report
The attack on crypto exchange CoinEx, which drained at least $55 million, was carried out by the North Korean hacker group Lazarus, according to blockchain security firm SlowMist and on-chain investigator ZachXBT. The hacker group was identified after it inadvertently exposed its address, which was the same one used in the recent Stake and Optimism hacks.
On Sept. 12, CoinEx saw large outflows of funds to an address without any prior history. Security experts immediately suspected that the exchange was breached, with initial estimates reaching approximately $27 million. At the time of writing, security firm SlowMist noted that the losses from the exploit had reached more than $55 million.
After the hack, CoinEx Global assured users that their assets were secure and that affected parties would “receive 100% compensation” for any losses due to the hack. Apart from this, the exchange temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals for added security. The exchange continues to monitor the situation and has promised a comprehensive report about the incident to be published in the near future.
Based on their on-chain behavior, the hackers responsible for the hack appear to be connected to the recent $41-million hack on the crypto gambling site Stake. On Sept. 7, the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) concluded that the attack on Stake was performed by North Korea’s Lazarus Group.
The recent attack on CoinEx Global adds huge figures to the mounting losses due to exploits, hacks and scams within the crypto space. On Sept. 1, cybersecurity firm CertiK reported that, as of August 2023, almost $1 billion had already been lost due to such incidents since January this year. In August alone, around $45 million was stolen from various malicious attacks.
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Bitcoin derivatives data suggests BTC price holds the current range
Bitcoin experienced a 5% increase after testing the $25,000 support level on Sept. 11. However, this breakout rally doesn’t necessarily indicate a victory for bulls. To put today’s price action in perspective, Bitcoin has witnessed a 15% decline since July. In contrast, the S&P 500 index and gold have maintained relatively stable positions during this period.
This underperformance demonstrates that Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum, despite significant catalysts such as MicroStrategy's plan to acquire an additional $750 million worth of BTCand the multiple requests for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from trillion-dollar asset management firms. Still, according to Bitcoin derivatives, bulls are confident that $25,000 marked a bottom and opened room for further price gains.
Some argue that Bitcoin’s primary drivers for 2024 are still in play, specifically the prospects of a spot ETF and the reduction in new supply following the April 2024 halving. Additionally, some of the cryptocurrency markets’ immediate risks have diminished following the United States Securities and Exchange Commission experiencing partial losses in three separate cases, involving Grayscale, Ripple and the decentralized exchange Uniswap.
On the other hand, bears have their own set of advantages, including the ongoing legal cases against leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Moreover, there is the troubled financial situation of Digital Currency Group after one of its subsidiaries declared bankruptcy in January 2023. The group is burdened with debts exceeding $3.5 billion, potentially leading to the sale of funds managed by Grayscale, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
A look at derivatives metrics will better explain how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.
Bitcoin futures and options metrics held steady despite the correction
Bitcoin monthly futures typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement. As a result, BTC futures contracts should typically trade at a 5 to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.
It’s worth noting that the demand for leveraged BTC long and short positions through futures contracts did not have a significant impact on the drop below the $25,000 mark on Sept. 11. However, the BTC futures premium continues to hover below the 5% neutral threshold. This metric remains in the neutral-to-bearish range, indicating a lack of demand for leveraged long positions.
To gauge market sentiment further, it’s helpful to look at the options markets, as the 25% delta skew can assess whether the retest of the $25,000 level has made investors more optimistic. In short, if traders expect a drop in Bitcoin’s price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically have a -7% skew.
The situation underwent a notable shift on Sept. 11, as the 25% delta skew metric — which previously indicated a 9% premium on protective put options, suggesting investors were expecting a correction — has now leveled off at zero. This indicates balanced pricing between call and put options, implying equal odds for both bullish and bearish price movements.
Macroeconomic uncertainty favors bears, but BTC bulls remain confident
Given the uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, particularly with the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index report on Sept. 13 and retail sales data on Sept. 14, it’s likely that crypto traders will be cautious and prefer a “return to the mean." In this context, the mean represents the predominant trading range of $25,500 to $26,200 observed over the past couple of weeks.
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Sam Bankman-Fried's lawyers request pre-trial release citing poor internet connection
Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman Fried’s lawyers have requested for a pre-trial release citing a lack of adequate internet connectivity in the federal jail. SBF’s legal team argued that poor internet connection is a hindrance in their defence preparation and leads to a loss of time.
The court filing dated Sept. 8 was the second such request for pre-trial release within the last week and came after the Appellate judge denied SBF's request for immediate release from jail on Sept.6. The judge then referred the motion to the next three-judge panel.
The SBF legal team argued that despite government assurance that their client would have access to a laptop on weekdays from 8 a.m. until 7 p.m., those promises haven’t materialized. The lawyers also cited several instances where SBF’s access to an internet laptop was cut short due to jail proceedings.
The first instance was on Sept. 1, when Bankman-Fried was called back to his cell at 2:30 p.m. for a headcount, costing him four hours of preparation. In a second instance on Sept. 6, SBF wasn’t released from his cell until 11:00 a.m. When Bankman-Fried tried to access the discovery database, the poor internet connection allowed only one document from the database to be reviewed. The legal team in their filing noted:
“Despite the Government’s efforts, there does not appear to be a way to solve the internet access problem in the cellblock. That means that Mr. Bankman-Fried has no way to review and search documents in the discovery database or the AWS database before the trial. The defendant cannot prepare for trial with these kinds of limitations.”
After his arrest in the Bahamas on Dec. 12 last year, SBF was released on a $250 million bond following which he spent the majority of his time confined to his parents' California home. However, his bail was revoked on Aug. 11 after SBF was found to be trying to contact and intimidate former FTX executives and witnesses in the lawsuit.
Since then, Bankman-Fried's legal team has filed multiple appeals to request pre-trial release, however, judges reviewing such motions have argued he has violated bail conditions on several occasions and thus an immediate release cannot be granted.
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OKX Crypto Exchange and Circle Partner to Introduce Fee-Free USDC Transactions
On September 7, global web3 technology leader OKX and fintech firm Circle Internet Financial unveiled USDC features on the OKX Wallet and the OKX DEX aggregator.
This partnership aims to facilitate gasless USDC transactions, eliminating network fees and enabling cross-chain USDC swaps across multiple blockchains.
The integration of OKX DEX aggregator with Circle's Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) now allows for seamless, feeless transactions across 7 blockchain networks: Ethereum, OKTC, BNB Chain, Polygon, Optimism, Arbitrum One, and Avalanche C.
This development marks a significant leap forward in user-friendly, permissionless on-chain utility, enabling USDC to flow naturally across diverse blockchain ecosystems.
Running from September 7 to October 5, 2023, the "USDC Zero Network Fee Campaign" is set to empower OKX Wallet users with the ability to send, receive, and swap USDC without incurring any network fees, provided they utilize the wallet's Smart Account feature.
The Smart Account, launched on August 2, 2023, leverages account abstraction technology to streamline USDC transactions across various blockchains.
Using the quick-swap feature, participants can enjoy up to five feeless transactions per day, per device. It's worth noting that the total reward and feeless transaction count reset daily at 4:00 pm UTC.
To qualify for this campaign, participants must hold a minimum of 10 USDC in their wallet, with unofficially released assets like USDC.e not factored into the total assets.
Each transaction is eligible for a maximum waiver of 5 USDC. The transaction will not qualify for a fee waiver if the network fee exceeds this limit.
In cases where the daily limit for waived fees is reached, feeless transactions will temporarily pause. Significantly, this pause will not impact the wallet's ability to conduct feeless transactions the following day.
OKX Prioritizes Web3 Accessibility and Targets India's Tech-Savvy Market for Expansion
In an interview, OKX's Chief Innovation Officer Jason Lau emphasized OKX's commitment to enhancing usability and accessibility in the Web3 space, stating,
"OKX is committed to improving usability and accessibility for users in the Web3 space."
OKX, a pioneering cryptocurrency exchange offering cutting-edge financial services, has been actively engaged in a series of initiatives aimed at broadening its Web3 offerings.
Additionally, the exchange is in the process of securing its license in Hong Kong, expanding to India and has recently forged partnerships with various Web3 projects to enhance the range of utilities available on its platform.
The recent launch of the "USDC Zero Network Fee Campaign" underscores the growing significance of stablecoins like USDCin the broader financial ecosystem and showcases stablecoins' potential to revolutionize traditional financial transactions. OKX has been
Furthermore, in an exclusive conversation with CryptoNews, OKX Global Chief Marketing Officer Haider Rafique shared the company's vision of targeting India's tech-savvy market.
OKX, one of the largest crypto exchanges in terms of trading volume, doesn't offer centralized finance products to Indian users.
However, the company plans to expand its general Web3 products to cater to Indian customers in the coming months. OKX aims to establish a presence in India, hire local talent, and tap into the country's tech-savvy youth, who are early adopters of Web3 technologies.
Haider Rafique highlighted India's affinity for tech, stating that
"most youth in India are very Web2 savvy, and they're certainly first movers on Web3; they understand this stuff. It's second nature."
He also noted that more wallets hold Web3 assets in India than other regions. This move signals OKX's strategic approach to embrace India's growing enthusiasm for Web3 and its potential for crypto adoption.
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SEC urges court to grant Ripple Labs appeal citing ‘knotty legal problems’
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has submitted a filing urging the court to grant its motion to appeal a ruling from the Ripple Labs lawsuit that deemed the XRP token to not be a security when sold to retail investors.
The agency argued that “knotty legal problems” surrounding the court’s application of the law — specifically the Howey test — warrant a review.
As per a Sept. 8 filing, the SEC called for the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York to grant its motion for interlocutory appeal and “stay further proceedings until the resolution of that appeal.”
“The SEC respectfully requests certification for appellate review now because the issues raised by the Court’s order on summary judgment (D.E. 874) (‘Order’) present precisely the kinds of ‘knotty legal problems’ that led Congress to provide for interlocutory review.”
Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July that XRP is generally not a security under SEC guidelines, particularly when distributed via programmatic sales (e.g., sold to retail via exchanges).
In the latest filing, the SEC argued that the rulings on programmatic sales and other distributions present “legal questions” that are significant enough for the agency’s interlocutory appeal to be approved by the court.
The SEC suggested that this is down to there being a legal gray area as to whether certain crypto assets fall under the classification of investment contracts via the Howey test or not, as it highlighted court proceedings from other cases.
“At least two opinions within this District reach contradictory legal conclusions on these issues and many other courts are considering whether similar offers and sales [...] satisfy Howey,” the SEC stated, adding that:
“While interlocutory appeal should be the exception, not the rule, this is the unusual case where the Defendants themselves say that the issues have industry-wide significance and are of special consequence, and thus is precisely the type of case as to which the Second Circuit has invited interlocutory appeal.”
These sentiments contradict previous statements from the agency and its Chair, Gary Gensler.
On multiple occasions, Gensler has staunchly shot down the need for new crypto regulation, as he has asserted that the SEC already has clear guidelines that adequately cover the full scope of the crypto market.
Such a view includes the notion that most of the crypto on the market falls under the definition of a security.
In a Sept. 8 tweet, Ripple’s chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty called the filing “hypocritical,” stating: “After years of its chairman saying the ‘rules are clear and must be obeyed’ the SEC now cries that an appeal is urgently needed to resolve these ‘knotty legal problems.’”
Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, also questioned how crypto firms can be on “fair notice” if there are knotty legal questions that need to be considered in court.
The SEC initially moved to appeal and stay the decision from Torres in August, arguing that there was “substantial ground for differences of opinion.”
On Sept. 1, Ripple Labs fired back by filing a memorandum of law in opposition, arguing that the SEC had unsubstantial grounds to request an appeal.
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Hackers Exploit Windows Tool to Deploy Crypto-Mining Malware
Hackers have targeted a popular Windows-based software packaging tool to infect computers with crypto mining malware, IT security firm Cisco Talos Intelligence Group has revealed.
The mining attack on computers happens through a Windows tool known as Advanced Installer, and the attackers have used the tool to package malicious code together with software installers from popular tools like Adobe Illustrator, Autodesk 3ds Max and SketchUp Pro.
The software tools affected are used specifically for 3-D modeling and graphic design, and mainly use the French language, the firm said.
Cisco Talos’ report explained that once infected, the computers, which are often used by graphic designers and therefore have powerful Graphics Processing Units (GPU), are then used to mine crypto on behalf of the attacker.
“The campaign likely affects business verticals such as architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing and entertainment, as the attackers use software installers specifically created for 3-D modeling and graphic design,” the report said.
It added that these industries are attractive targets for the hackers because powerful GPUs are highly useful for mining various cryptocurrencies.
Once infected, the computers start running the M3_Mini_Rat tool, which allows attackers to download and run the Ethereum malware miner PhoenixMiner and the multi-coin mining malware lolMiner.
Among the most popular proof-of-work (PoW) cryptocurrencies that can be mined with GPUs today is the Ethereum fork Ethereum Classic (ETC) and the privacy-focused coin Monero (XMR).
Bitcoin (BTC) is generally mined on more specialized mining machines known as ASICs.
The firm said the activity has been ongoing since “at least November 2021,” and victims are spread out around the world but with a concentration in France and other French-speaking regions.
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Binance CEO brushes off negativity, assures firm has ‘no liquidity issues’
Binance co-founder and CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao has hosed down recent rumors against his firm, assuring its balance sheet and employee retention remain robust despite the recent market uncertainty.
In a Sept. 7 post on X (Twitter), the Binance boss blamed negative news, rumors, bank runs, lawsuits, the closing of fiat channels, product wind-downs and employee turnovers for creating an environment of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt).
He then used the opportunity to clarify Binance’s current financial position:
“Guess what we don't have? No liquidity issues,” CZ emphasized. “All withdrawals (and deposits) are properly handled. All customer funds are #SAFU, and 100% reserved.”
Observers have noted at least 10 Binance executives have left the helm between July and September alone, including Patrick Hillmann, former chief strategy officer; Mayur Kamat, former product lead; Leon Foong, former head of Asia-Pacific; and Steven Christie, former senior vice president for compliance.
CZ, however, explained in July that employee turnovers are a reality for every single company, especially those in a rapidly changing environment like crypto.
In a recent post, CZ said Binance “probably also [has] the lowest founding team turnover of any tech startup of our size and age, in the world.”
Meanwhile, the Binance CEO pointed to some wins in the cryptocurrency industry lately, such as the launch of new fiat channels and products, new hires, and new markets in addition to some wins in the courtroom — notably Ripple and Grayscale Investment’s victories against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Google Updates Crypto Ads Policy, Clarifies Rules for Blockchain Games
Search engine behemoth Google has revised its advertisement policy on cryptos, allowing blockchain-based non-fungible token (NFT) ads, as long as they adhere to ad requirements and do not advocate gambling-related content.
The revised crypto update will allow advertisers offering NFT games to promote products and services such as purchase of in-game items like virtual apparel for a player’s characters, weaponry, or armor with better stats used in a game to enhance a user’s experience.
Beginning September 15, 2023, advertisers offering NFT games that do not promote gambling-related content may advertise those products and services.”
However, Google will continue to prohibit game ads where players can wager or stake NFTs to win cryptos or other NFTs. The update further said that simulated casino games that reward NFT will remain banned and advertisements that promote NFT-integrated “real money gambling” will not be allowed.
Crypto Ad Ban Lifted?
Google banned any crypto-related advertising across its online platforms in 2018, citing the potential for consumer harm. Scott Spencer, Google’s director of sustainable ads, said at the time that the business would continue to treat cryptos with “extreme caution.”
However, in 2021, the Mountain View, California-based company partially lifted the ban, allowing advertisers that offer “cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets targeting the United States,” provided they registered with the US FinCEN or a federal chartered bank entity.
The latest relaxation over blockchain-related ads reflects the growing trend of NFT gaming, with more investors pumping capital into development and esports, getting their voices heard for experiences that could have been previously unavailable.
The ad policy amendment further said that NFT-related gaming advertisers “will need to comply with the Gambling and games policy and receive the proper Google Ads certification.”
It also reminded advertisers to comply with the local laws for the region that the ad is intended to target. “This policy will apply globally to all accounts that advertise these products,” the update added.
Advertisers that violate the policy change will first receive a warning, at least 7 days, before account suspension.
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Bitcoin risks ‘swift’ $23K dive after BTC price loses 11% in August
Bitcoin is headed for a long-term support retest, data suggests, after BTC price action fell into the August monthly close.
BTC price: Roads point to $23,000
Reversing gains seen last week, BTC/USD is back below $26,000 as of Sep. 1, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingViewshows.
Market participants had seen cause for bullishness into the close, with Bitcoin holding a key long-term trendline and preserving $27,000.
A decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay a slew of Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications forced a rethink, with Bitcoin shedding $1,000 over just two hourly candles.
Now, observers are concerned that even current levels may fail to hold the market up for long.
“On-chain data suggests that $BTC lacks strong support below the $25,400 mark,” popular trader Ali told X (formerly Twitter) subscribers.
“If BTC breaks below this threshold, it could swiftly correct down to $23,340.”
Ali uploaded a chart of the UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) metric from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
This tracks the price at which the current set of transaction outputs was created and functions as a roadmap for likely price support and resistance levels.
A breakdown to $23,000 would not come as a surprise to some, with that target already on the radar for various traders and analysts.
Bitcoin inches toward key support battleground
Continuing, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators delivered a similarly grim picture for BTC/USD on daily (D), weekly (W) and even monthly (M) timeframes.
Using signals from one of its proprietary trading tools, Trend Precognition, Material Indicators advised that $24,750 needed to hold for bulls to have a chance at clinching a rebound.
“If price moves and holds below $25,350 the W signal will invalidate, however, if support holds above the LL at $24,750 there will be a good foundation to rally from and retest resistance,” part of X commentary explained.
“We will look to the Monthly candle open for a signal from the Trend Precognition algos to gain insight to whether we can expect an extension of the downtrend or a monthly momentum shift to the upside.”
Data from CoinGlass meanwhile showed Aug. 31 sparking the largest volume of BTC long liquidations since Bitcoin’s 10% dive earlier in the month.
These came in at $41 million, with the cross-crypto total at $108 million — still far below the daily tally from two weeks prior.
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No, Bitcoin is not in its ‘longest ever bear market’ — Here's why
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are not in their “longest ever bear market” and probably are not even in a bear market at all, according to some industry observers.
MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe took to X (formerly Twitter) on Aug. 27 to claim that Bitcoin is currently in its “longest bear market” in history.
“Right now, the price of Bitcoin is nowhere near the valuation of the peak in November '21. It's down more than 50% and in a bear market of 490 days,” the trader wrote.
Van de Poppe’s statement has brought much attention from X users, amassing 1.3 million views and nearly a thousand reposts at the time of writing. Some crypto enthusiasts, however, are confident that Van de Poppe’s information is not the case.
To determine the length of the current “bear market” in crypto, it’s necessary to understand that there are different interpretations of the term.
“Thing is, the terms ‘bull’ and ‘bear market’ are entirely subjective,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph. “It can mean either the price has moved in the past or that the price is expected to move in a certain direction in the future,” Greenspan said, adding:
“The ambiguity creates endless opportunities for analysts to make pointless arguments in perpetuity.”
According to editor Allen Scott, one may view the current market situation as a “multi-year bear market now until a new all-time high is broken.” Such a perspective suggests that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since reaching its historic peak near $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021, or for 659 days. The period is even longer than the one mentioned by Van de Poppe, but it’s still not the longest “bear market” based on such an approach.
As previously mentioned, Bitcoin once saw its price below its previous highs for a period of 37 months — or about 1,125 days — between November 2013 and January 2017. For over three years, Bitcoin's price failed to reclaim $1,000 after hitting the price mark in 2013.
After reaching $20,000 for the first time in December 2017, Bitcoin again lagged behind the price level until December 2020, or for 1,095 days. But does that mean that Bitcoin was in a “bear market” during this period at all? Looking at the charts, one could say that Bitcoin was actually on the trajectory of hitting its all-time peak of $68,000.
According to another bear market term interpretation, Bitcoin may not currently be in a bear market at all.
Some classic definitions suggest that a bear market happens when a market index or asset declines by 20% or more from its recent high.
According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s most recent high occurred in mid-July 2023 at around $31,400. At current prices, Bitcoin is around 13% shy of that level. Moreover, the cryptocurrency has climbed 34% over the past year.
“If you zoom out enough, Bitcoin is just one big green candle and has been in a continuous bull market since 2019. I guess those that focus on short timeframes might be experiencing a bear market,” Jan3 CEO Samson Mow told Cointelegraph.
The Bitcoin advocate also hinted that he sees the current market situation as “very bullish” amid contributing factors like high inflation, loss of purchasing power, spiraling debt and adoption by nation-states like El Salvador. Mow also has his own definition of a bear market:
“A bear market is what high time preference crypto investors experience periodically.”
Quantum Economics’ Greenspan supported Mow's remarks, arguing that Bitcoin has never even been in a bear market. “Taking the longest time frame for both past occurrence and future expectations, we can however determine that Bitcoin always has and always will be in a bull market,” he stated.
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Bitcoin analysts doubt BTC price rally as $23K target gains popularity
Bitcoin drifted toward $27,000 after the Aug. 30 Wall Street open as the dust settled on digital asset manager Grayscale’s legal victory.
BTC buyer interest remains low
Data showed BTC price cooling volatility, which began the day prior, when a positive verdict for Grayscale against United States regulators sparked 7.5% gains.
Bitcoin managed $28,143 on Bitstamp — its highest in almost two weeks — before returning to consolidate lower.
Despite closing the daily candle above two key moving averages, these had yet to return as definitive intraday support, and on the day, analysts were cautious.
In a Quicktake post for on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, contributor “MAC_D” was among those noting that the Grayscale move had originated on derivatives exchanges.
Despite funding rates remaining fairly neutral, there was a clear absence of genuine buyer interest on spot markets.
“First, looking at the ‘Funding Rate’, it is not an extreme value, so it is not expected to cause a sharp price correction,” he wrote.
“However, it is difficult to see that the spot exchange led the price increase when the BTC price rose yesterday. The reason is that the ‘Trading Volume Ratio (Spot VS. Derivative)’ shows that it has decreased rather than increased.”
Additional data showed trading volumes were still below those seen during upticks earlier in 2023.
“Of course, there is a tendency for prices to change significantly even with small trading volumes because the overall liquidity in the cryptocurrency market has decreased,” MAC_D continued.
“However, it seems that there is a need to be a little cautious about the fact that this rally leads to a dramatic rally.”
“Many similarities” to Bitcoin’s all-time high
Equally conservative on the long-term outlook was popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
In his latest YouTube update, Rekt Capital suggested that BTC/USD might be printing a copycat move similar to that seen in 2021 around its current all-time high.
While no new BTC price peak is expected now, the recent tops around $31,000 on the weekly chart and subsequent breakdown are reminiscent of Bitcoin’s performance going into the 2022 bear market.
“We’re seeing many similarities between the double top of 2021 and what we’re seeing right now,” he warned.
Should the similarities play out and BTC/USD produce a full fractal, $26,000 would flip from support to resistance to initiate further downside.
“For the time being, we are seeing a lot of signs really playing into all of this,” Rekt Capital reiterated.
Earlier reported on prospective targets for a BTC price bottom, with $23,000 becoming increasingly important.
Rekt Capital likewise flagged $23,000 as a prominent level versus the 2022 bear market bottoming structure — an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
“That’s the level that we could see price rebound from,” he added.
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Hong Kong's first licensed retail crypto exchange HashKey eyes 2024 bull run
Hong Kong retail cryptocurrency traders now have access to a locally based cryptocurrency exchange after HashKey took its retail trading services live to users in China’s special administrative region on Aug. 28.
The company was previously permitted to serve professional and institutional investors, before being granted Type 1 and Type 7 licenses by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) on Aug. 3. This paved the way to becoming the first licensed retail exchange in Hong Kong.
As previously reported, the exchange now offers Bitcoin and Ethereum trading pairs with the Hong Kong Dollar (BTC/USD and ETH/USD) and plans to list further tokens following its launch for retail users. HashKey also announced support for both United States and Hong Kong Dollars deposits and withdrawals.
A spokesperson from the company told that HashKey holds an optimistic outlook for the development of Web3 in the region, which has been driven by support from the government and SFC. The exchange aims to onboard 500,000 to 1 million users by the end of 2023 both locally and abroad.
HashKey’s representative added that the exchange anticipates the advent of a new cryptocurrency bull market between 2024 and 2025. With retail investors now afforded an avenue to obtain and trade cryptocurrencies, the company predicts Hong Kong’s crypto user base to increase to 10 to 15 million people over the next two years.
A statement from HashKey Group COO Livio Weng highlighted the importance of favorable regulatory oversight from the Hong Kong government and SFC as a key driver of growth for the Web3 ecosystem:
“The emergence of regulatory compliance in Hong Kong will attract Web3 talents and capital from around the world, thereby accelerating technological and business innovation.”
Weng added that the environment being created in Hong Kong could spark a “virtuous cycle of development with the industry”, with favorable regulatory parameters positioning the region as a potential alternative for Web3 firms to relocate to.
HashKey’s exchange operates on the HEX Engine, which it touts as a high-performance trading system capable of processing 5,000 transactions per second.
The exchange has also adopted a number of regulatory requirements in line with Hong Kong’s guidelines, including detailed user screening, AML inspections and transaction monitoring across its operations.
HashKey is also licensed to hold custody of institutional and retail clients funds and notes that its policy enforces that 98% of cryptocurrencies under management are stored in cold wallets.
Hong Kong's adoption of favorable but regulated cryptocurrency ecosystem is also attracting attention of global players like Binance, which also took part in public discussions and policy-making processes as previously covered by Cointelegraph.
OSL also announced uplift of its license from the SFC on Aug. 3, which enabled the brokerage, exchange, and custody provider to offer its services to retail customers in Hong Kong.
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PEPE price to zero? Pepecoin rug-pull allegations put memecoin at risk
Pepecoin, once an extremely profitable memecoin, has plunged by more than 80% four months after its record high. Now, technicals suggest that the memcoin could be at risk of even bigger losses in the coming weeks or months.
Pepecoin faces rug pull allegations
On Aug. 24, several rogue Pepecoin developers changed the number of signatures required to move tokens from their multi-sig wallet from five-out-of-eight to two-out-of-eight. Then, they sent $16 million worth of PEPE to crypto exchanges, suggesting that they wanted to sell.
A segment of market analysts viewed these mov as a hint of an impending "rug pull," raising fears that the PEPE price may crash to zero in 2023.
Previous "rug pulls" such as MULTI, the native token of Multichain's cross-chain bridging protocol, has dropped nearly 98% from its peak. The decline has appeared partially due to allegations that Multichain's $125 million hack in July 2023 was part of a broader rug-pull scam.
Similarly, in July 2023, a crypto developer associated with the Encryption AI project committed a $2 million rug-pull fraud. As a result, the Encryption AI token, 0XENCRYPT, crashed 99% to an all-time low of $0.02.
PEPE price paints deadly descending triangle
Market analyst Nebraska Gooner suggests that PEPE price could soon plunge to nearly zero due to a descending triangle formation on the four-hour chart.
A descending triangle in finance is a bearish continuation pattern characterized by the simultaneous formation of a falling trendline resistance and horizontal trendline support. It resolves after the price decisively breaks below the support and falls by as much as the triangle's maximum height.
This puts the bearish target for PEPE's descending triangle at nearly zero.
PEPE hopefuls buy the dip
On a brighter note, some PEPE investors have used the token's price decline as an opportunity to buy the dip. Notably, the supply held by entities with a balance between 10,000 and 100,000 PEPE tokens has jumped substantially since Aug. 27.
This accumulation is underway as Pepecoin hopefuls assert that the market can absorb any further selling pressure from the token devs.
"The @pepecoineth devs used to hold 6% of the PEPE and sold 16T tokens equaling 4% of the supply," noted Kenobi, a Pepe investor, adding:
"No other wallet (besides exchanges) holds more than 0.9% of the supply, except the Pepe dev wallet, which now holds 2%. This is long-term bullish for PEPE. SELL THE REMAINING 2%!!!
Technically, PEPE trades near a recognized accumulation area around $0.00000085 that witnessed a 120% price rally during the June-July 2023 session. Thus, chances of a market rebound at this level are high given PEPE's oversold relative strength index (RSI).
If PEPE price bounces here, then the next upside target comes to be its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $0.00000121 in 2023, up around 45% from the current price levels.
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Bitcoin may hit $100K by capturing ‘even 2%–5% of gold’s market cap’ — Hut8 VP Sue Ennis
The next Bitcoin halving event is less than 9 months away and the consensus opinion among analysts and investors is that the halving will send BTC price to a new all time high or even above $100,000.
Despite this belief, the absence of fresh inflow to the crypto market, the current macroeconomic headwinds and BTC’s recent price action below $30,000 do not inspire much confidence in this theory in the short-term.
In a recent interview with Paul Barron, Hut8 vice president Sue Ennis shared her thoughts on how Bitcoin price will rise above $100,000 in the next year and how the upcoming halving will impact BTC miners. Hut8 currently has a balance of 9,152 BTC in reserve, of which 8,305 is unencumbered. The company’s installed ASIC hashrate capacity sits at 2.6 ETH/s and Hut8 mined 44.6 BTC in July.
In the interview, Barron inquired whether rising Bitcoin difficulty for miners could induce a fresh wave of sell pressure against BTC price. Citing data from Hashrate Index, Barron observed that spikes in Bitcoin difficulty were followed by drops in BTC price.
Barron questioned if miners were selling Bitcoin as a result of the upcoming halving creating a need for more efficient ASICS, and whether BTC’s pre- and post-halving price action would not be as bullish as investors expected.
According to Ennis:
“There’s a lot of unprecedented dynamics that are happening now in the mining space. What’s interesting is hashrate continues to come online despite Bitcoin price trading in a certain band, we’re still seeing hashrate increase.”
Ennis elaborated with:
“What's changed now is that we’re seeing BTC price come down a little but hashrate continues to go up. What’s exciting and different is we’re seeing tremendous amount of new entrants into the global Bitcoin network.”
Ennis referenced 6 gigawatts of nuclear and renewable energy being generated in the Middle East and with the governments within this region exploring Bitcoin mining as an option, this is bringing more hashrate online in a way that is somewhat price agnostic. This is drastically different from how publicly traded US-based and more forward facing miners operate.
In order to stay afloat after the halving, Ennis suggested that miners need to be in a position of avoiding being “single threaded,” i.e., they need more than one way of earning revenue beyond just mining Bitcoin.
Revenue diversification would include exploring various AI applications, dedicating some warehouse rackspace to GPUs for companies specialising in AI training and possibly offering industrial-level ASIC repair services, or even participating in demand-response initiatives with large energy producers and distributors.
Higher prices are programmed thanks to the halving and eventual BTC ETF
Crypto investors have waited years for the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF and even with the recent influx of applications, an approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission remains elusive.
Despite the history of delays and denials, Ennis said that a “spot ETF coming to market, that’s incredibly bullish for the asset class,” but she also cautioned that an approval could create sell pressure on miner equities given that mining stocks have often been used as a proxy investment to Bitcoin.
Regarding the percentage chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the end of 2023, Ennis said:
“Definitely better than 50. The real reason for my opinion on that is because BlackRock threw its hat in the ring. BlackRock being powerful and the largest asset manager in the world. For them to throw their hat in the ring and say this is what we want and the amount of clout they’ve had in markets in past initiatives is tremendous. So I think for them to make this call, it is a real bullish signal.”
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BTC price shows 'textbook' Wyckoff moves as Bitcoin bulls defend $25K
Bitcoin consolidated higher on Sep. 15 as analysis described recent BTC price behavior as “textbook.”
Analyst on Bitcoin: "September is not Rektember"
Data showed the largest cryptocurrency focusing on $26,600 — below a key breakout level.
Bitcoin had shrugged off the latest United States macroeconomic data reports the day prior, joining traditional markets in heading higher despite hints that inflation was more stubborn than expected.
Amid a renewed bullish mood, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, was hopeful that BTC/USD would avoid new lows.
“Bitcoin might be able to activate a potential bullish breakout, although we need to make sure that it doesn't retest the lows again,” he wrote in part of a dedicated post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sep. 14.
Referencing news that Germany’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, had applied for a crypto custody licence, Van de Poppe eyed $25,000 as a level for bulls to steer the market away from.
“We've seen a sweep at $25,000 and should be holding up on higher numbers. In that case, we should be holding $25,600-25,900 as beneath there we'll see a ton of stops to be activated before we can actually see some movements,” he suggested.
Despite remaining below a cluster of key moving averages (MAs), the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to act as support — reclaimed in March and an important feature at the start of any bull market.
“I think that the odds of the low to be in on this cycle have increased. Why? Well, we're again holding above the 200-Week EMA and most likely will be closing above that again for this one,” Van de Poppe continued.
“September is not rektember and seems to be that we'll be having continuation from here.”
He highlighted $26,800 — the previous day’s high — as the line in the sand to break through.
Wyckoff reveals classic BTC price rebound
Taking an optimistic long-range view, meanwhile, trading resource Stockmoney Lizards likewise concluded that further BTC price upside should come next.
X analysis compared the past year’s price action to an extended “accumulation” phase, using the Wyckoff method.
This describes price cycles of an asset, and correctly identifying the trigger after a swing low, known as the “Spring” in Wyckoff, can reveal the beginning of a new uptrend or a return to a previous higher trading range.
For Stockmoney Lizards, the Spring occurred after BTC/USD bottomed out in late 2022.
“We have seen the spring in January, breakout end of March, and now the second throwback. Textbook Wyckoff behaviour,” it commented.
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Bitcoin price reacts as 3.7% CPI sees inflation jump beyond forecasts
Bitcoin saw snap volatility on Sept. 13 as United States macroeconomic data showed inflation beating expectations.
Fuel, shelter boost August CPI beyond target
Data followed BTC price action as it threatened a fresh loss of the $26,000 mark.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for August came in at 3.7% year-on-year — 0.1% higher than forecast.
“The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase,” part of an official press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics read.
“Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month.”
Earlier on the day, crypto market participants had warned that a “hot” CPI reading would pressure the market, as it would imply that inflation remained more stubborn than hoped. This, in turn, could have implications for how restrictive economic policy remains in the future.
“I think in next CPI we see +4% with the gasoline prices going up this fast,” popular trader CrypNuevo told subscribers on X (formerly Twitter) in part of a reaction.
“Inflation is still a problem, and a big problem in this second half of the year.”
CPI was already forecast to beat its July year-on-year figure, with August at 3.6% versus the previous 3.2%.
Bitcoin bid liquidity sticks to $25,000 and below
Prior to the release, Keith Alan, co-founder of on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, was optimistic about the week’s BTC price momentum holding out.
“The strength of BTC momentum has faded a bit since yesterday, but so far it’s still strong enough to hold on to most of what was reclaimed after the bounce,” part of an X post read.
Alan reiterated that “lots of technical resistance” remained above the current spot price range, this coming in the form of multiple daily moving averages.
With the Wall Street open still to come, volatility was in play, with BTC/USD lacking a clear trend at the time of writing.
An accompanying snapshot of the BTC/USDT order book on the largest global exchange, Binance, showed only modest liquidity surrounding the spot price, with more bids parked at $25,000.
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GBTC ‘discount’ hits smallest since 2021 despite BTC price at 3-month lows
Grayscale's Bitcoin investment vehicle, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), now trades at just 17% below BTC price parity.
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirms that as of Sept. 9, GBTC shares traded at 17.17% less than BTC/USD.
GBTC retraces nearly two years of losses
largest institutional investment vehicle, has seen its fortunes improve significantly since news that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said it planned to file an application for the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).
This was music to the ears of Grayscale executives, who were already in the middle of a legal battle with United States regulators over turning GBTC itself into a spot ETF.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to approve a single spot ETF application, recently delaying a decision on multiple projects.
Despite this, Grayscale last month won a key face-off with the SEC, securing a welcome industry boost, which further buoyed GBTC price performance.
GBTC shares’ discount to Bitcoin's price — once a surplus referred to as the “GBTC Premium” — was just 17.17% on Sept. 9, marking its best level since December 2021.
The premium has been negative, known as a discount to net asset value, ever since. At one point, it reached nearly 50%.
No joy for Bitcoin bulls
GBTC has thus begun to diverge from BTC price strength, with the latter still sloping downhill as it retests levels rarely seen over the past six months.
BTC price traded at under $25,500 at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed, with the Wall Street open adding fuel to an already limp market.
As reported, September tends to be a weak month for BTC/USD, which often loses up to 10%.
“September is historically a pretty bad month for #Bitcoin, that’s just the facts. October is historically very bullish,” popular trader and analyst CryptoCon told X followers in part of commentary on Sept. 11.
CryptoCon added a chart flagging late November as a key time to watch for signs of life from Bitcoin during prehalving years.
This echoes an existing theory that gives Nov. 28as the “bull run launch” date for Bitcoin price once every four years.
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Solana falls 6% amid fears of FTX dump — but there's a catch
The price of Solana has plunged more than 6% the last 24 hours, amid fears that bankrupt crypto exchange FTX may soon liquidate its significant portions of the token and other Solana-affiliated crypto assets.
According to a combination of data from Solscan, which has added up the value of the three publicly available FTX cold storage wallets, the FTX estate holds a combined $1.5 billion in crypto assets on the Solana network.
Of that weighty figure, Solana tokens account for just $128 million.
The rest of the amount is comprised of numerous Solana-based altcoins such as Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC), Maps token (MAPS), Serum (SRM) and a number of other tokens colloquially referred to as “Sam coins” — a jest at the former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
Still, the idea that liquidators may soon unleash $128 million worth of SOL and hundreds of millions worth of other SOL-affiliated tokens onto the market hasn’t inspired much confidence in the market.
A number of users took to X (formerly known as Twitter) to voice their concerns over the impending sell-off. “FTX about to dump $680 mil worth of SOL 👀” wrote one user. “SOL is going to dump hard after FTX sells its bag, going to reach 14$ soon,” said another.
Others have instead urged calm, as the bankruptcy plan actually restricts how much can be sold off at once
According to FTX bankruptcy filings, the proposed plan for the liquidation of FTX’s assets imposes a series of conditions on the sale of tokens.
On Aug. 24, FTX proposed to appoint Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Capital Management as the investment manager that would oversee the sales of its recovered crypto holdings.
In this plan, the FTX estate would only be permitted to sell a maximum of $100 million worth of its tokens each week, however, that limit could be raised to $200 million on an individual token basis.
These limits have been introduced in a bid to minimize the impact of token sales on the broader market while still allowing for FTX to make creditors whole.
Notably, the plan has not yet been signed off on by the courts, however, the plan and a number of other matters related to the FTX token sales are expected to come before the Delaware Bankruptcy Court on Sept. 13.
In an April 12 hearing, FTX disclosed that it had recovered roughly $7.3 billion in liquid assets, with $4.8 billion of that sum being comprised of assetsrecovered as of November 2022.
Overall however, according to documents raised in the hearing, FTX held a total of $4.3 billion in crypto assets available for stakeholder recovery at market prices as of April 12.
At the time of publication, Solana is changing hands for $18.38 apiece, down nearly 11% for the week.
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Ripple's CLO calls SEC's latest filing "Hypocritical Pivot"
Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel in the SEC v. Ripple Labs case, has characterized the United States Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) latest submission as a "contradictory shift" and contends that it holds little sway.
Following the recent filing by the U.S. SEC to reinforce its interlocutory appeal, Stuart Alderoty, Chief Legal Officer at Ripple, commented on X, referring to the submission as another instance of a "hypocritical pivot." Alderoty highlighted what he sees as Chairman Gary Gensler's inconsistency, manipulative actions and appetite for expanded regulation.
He pointed out that Gensler had requested an urgent appeal while simultaneously asserting that crypto regulations and rules were clear and must be adhered to by the industry.
“Another SEC filing, another hypocritical pivot… After years of its chairman saying the ‘rules are clear and must be obeyed,’ the SEC now cries that an appeal is urgently needed to resolve these knotty legal problems.”
Attorney James K. Filan took a dig at the SEC, ridiculing their newfound concern for preserving judicial resources. He pointed out the SEC's previous attempt to pause all proceedings in the case.
Renowned pro-XRP attorney John E. Deaton remarked that those not well-versed in the U.S. SEC v. Ripple Labs case might find Ripple CLO Alderoty's response to the SEC to be harsh. However, for those familiar with the case, Alderoty's characterization of the SEC as "hypocritical" is simply a reflection of the federal judge presiding over the matter.
In the Grayscale lawsuit, federal judges have criticized the US SEC's assertions as "arbitrary and capricious." Meanwhile, in the Ripple XRP case, Judge Netburn employed the term "hypocrisy" to characterize the SEC's contradictory stances. Additionally, Ripple's Executive Chairman, Chris Larsen, anticipates that the SEC's approach ofenforcing regulations through legal actions may come to a conclusion in the near future.
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Bitcoin energy value metric puts BTC’s ‘fair value’ at $47K — Analyst
Bitcoin’s price is trading in a frustratingly tight range between $25,500 and $26,500, leaving traders unsure of the next direction that the asset could take.
However, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that Bitcoin’s current price presents a low-risk long-term buying opportunity. Edwards’ view is based on Bitcoin’s production cost and energy value.
Capriole Investments energy value theory gives a fair value price of $47,200, and Edwards reiterated his bullish stance by saying that Bitcoin’s production cost gives a floor price estimation of around $23,000 with a 100% hit ratio.
The trade has a risk-reward ratio of 1:5, with the potential for even higher price targets, but Edwards added it is based on the assumption that the rally price "would stop at fair value, which it never has.”
Bullish energy value theory
Edwards proposed Bitcoin’s energy value theory in December 2019. According to the theory, the fair value of Bitcoin can be estimated by the amount of energy it takes to produce it.
The model assumes that the more work that has been put into something, the more valuable it is.
In 2023, the amount of energy spent in Bitcoin mining has been on the rise as mining companies increased their capacity and share of hash rate with the installation of new ASICs and by preparing for the halving in April 2024.
According to Edwards, the Bitcoin energy value reflects its fair value.
Bitcoin's energy value has shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s spot price and this suggests that the theory is at least somewhat valid. However, there are some caveats to the theory.
One limitation is that Bitcoin’s energy value is not always accurate. This is because the mining energy efficiency can vary over time.
Additionally, the theory does not take into account other factors that can affect the price of Bitcoin, such as the market’s current demand and supply and the steps taken by miners ahead of the halving next year.
Bitcoin looks primed for further downside
Bitcoin’s spot liquidity data on Binance indicates that buyers are looking at the $24,600 level for support. However, the bullish momentum appears to be fading as most traders are crowding around the yearly low levels and hoping that these hold.
The liquidation levels of futures orders from CoinGlass show that buyers are expecting downside to $24,600, with smaller liquidations extending toward $23,000.
Notably, the price range between $25,000 and $25,500 has the most leveraged orders in significantly high volumes, making them hot targets for traders.
Should the price drop down to the $23,000 level, the buyer’s conviction will be tested. A drop below $23,000 would target the $21,451 and $19,549 levels from 2022.
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Bitcoin all-time high in 2025? BTC price idea reveals ‘bull run launch’
Bitcoin is about to test hodlers with a “mid cycle lull” before starting a bull run in late 2024, a new BTC price model states.
According to its creator, popular analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28th Cycles Theory” demands the BTC price all-time high in 2025.
Countdown to BTC price “bull run launch”
Amid debate over the nature of the current Bitcoin four-year price cycle, CryptoCon believes that all may be simpler than many imagine when it comes to how BTC/USD behaves at a given time.
Unveiling the “November 28th” chart on X (formerly Twitter), he delineated the date as a key pivot point in the year, along with a three-week period on either side.
“Using 4-year time cycles against my Theory, produces Bitcoins exact behavior in time since its inception. Cycles are centered around the date of the first halving Nov 28th,” he explained.
“Bitcoin price action began at the first bottom October 8th, 2010. This is where cycle curves peak, every 4 years. Tops and bottoms come +/- 21 days from Nov 28th at their appropriate times on the curve. Tops on the upswing, bottoms on the pinnacle.”
The chart describes November 28 as the date Bitcoin sees a “bull run launch” every four years. The last was in 2020 when BTC/USD broke beyond its prior all-time high (ATH) to hit its current $69,000 record a year later.
The next point of interest is thus November 2024. Until then, BTC price action will spend its time in a “mid cycle lull.”
“After Bitcoin bottoms, price makes an early first cycle move (orange) and enters into a mid-cycle lull,” CryptoCon continued.
“This is the longest part of the cycle, where Bitcoin spends time around the median price (half of previous ATH), until the curve bottoms.”
He added that Bitcoin had “almost certainly” seen its early top, referencing the $31,800 local highsfrom July.
A Bitcoin “bull market fakeout”
As reported, opinions on where BTC price action will go into the 2024 block subsidy halving differ.
Some argue that modest gains will be all that hodlers will see before the event, scheduled for April next year.
In an interview this week, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, nonetheless delivered a $46,000 target for the halving, with $35,000 slated for year-end.
In his latest newsletter published on Sept. 5, meanwhile, CryptoCon summarized 2023 BTC price behavior as a “bull market fakeout.”
“This makes it appear as if the bull market has begun with the trigger of many signals, but then at some point, price fails to continue,” he wrote.
“This is the most convincing example we’ve seen of this yet. Personally, I think there is still some time to go for that and I am patiently awaiting its completion.”
BTC/USD traded at $26,200 at the time of writing on Sept. 8, per data.
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Bitcoin price faces 200-week trendline as US dollar hits 6-month high
Bitcoin vs. 200-week moving average forms "million dollar question"
Data showed BTC price moves focusing on the area around $25,700.
Conditions were less volatile than the day prior, which saw a trip to $26,000 and local lows under $25,400 within a single hourly candle.
Bitcoin market participants remained cautious overall, with predictions of fresh downside to come becoming more and more commonplace.
“$BTC - unless we reclaim may low I still think lower,” popular trader TraderSZ told X subscribers on the day.
“Taken a short here half size targeting 23.6k. If we reclaim May low I will look to scale out.”
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, flagged the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $25,670 as the key level to watch on weekly timeframes.
“The million dollar question is whether Bitcoin holds above the 200-Week EMA,” he summarized.
Fellow trader and analyst Toni Ghinea was more categorical, eyeing $25,000 and lower next for Bitcoin, with altcoins also due to suffer.
“I said 25k will happen. I said that ALTS will make new lows. I'm now saying $BTC will nuke to 19-23k,” he wrote in an X post.
“This move down is far from over. Ignore the ETF narrative. It's only used to manipulate the market. Soon it will be time to buy.”
Ghinea referenced the ongoing battle to launch the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund, or ETF — a key low-timeframe volatility source in recent weeks.
Dollar stokes crypto, risk asset concerns
Looking beyond crypto markets, the U.S. dollar presented a compelling case for suppression across risk assets.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), having broken through local highs seen in late May, hit 105.15 on the day — its highest since March 10.
“This rally by the dollar will continue to be a drain on risk assets, especially those the furthest up the risk curve (i.e. crypto),” analyst Benjamin Cowen wrote in part of X analysis.
TraderSZ continued the theme, forecasting downside for U.S. equities at the hands of DXY strength.
“Price action for the U.S. Dollar Index DXY is extremely bullish (and therefore bearish for financial assets),” Caleb Franzen, senior analyst at Cubic Analytics, added.
“When it broke above the 200-day moving average cloud & the trendline from 2022 highs, I said it was important to listen. Now we've flipped them into support.”
An accompanying chart showed the DXY 200-day simple and exponential moving averages.
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Ripple legal team opposes SEC appeal over XRP decision
Lawyers representing Ripple in its lawsuit with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have suggested the regulator hasn’t met the requirements to request an appeal.
In a Sept. 1 filing with U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Ripple’s legal team said the SEC’s grounds for an appeal largely rested on “dissatisfaction” with a judge’s decision that the XRP token did not qualify as a security for sales to retail investors. The lawyers said “exceptional circumstances required for interlocutory appeal” were absent in the case and called on the judge to deny any request for an appeal or stay.
“The SEC has not even attempted to meet the standard for a stay, even after the Individual Defendants identified that omission in their pre-motion letter,” said Ripple. “The Individual Defendants write separately to oppose the SEC’s request. Ripple joins that opposition.”
In August, the commission moved to appeal and stay a July court decision in which Judge Analisa Torres ruled XRP largely was not a security under SEC guidelines. At the time, the SEC argued there was “substantial ground for differences of opinion” on the laws at issue.
The SEC filed its lawsuit against Ripple, CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen in December 2020, prompting many exchanges to delist the XRP token to avoid possible legal entanglement. Following the Torres’ ruling, many of the same firms said they would relist the token or explore doing so in the future.
“It’s sad that so many in the US crypto community have to resort to the legal process to prove this SEC is out of control and consistently wrong on the facts and the law,” said Garlinghouse in an Aug. 29 X post.
The SEC has targeted a number of crypto firms in 2023 over allegations of securities violations, including Binance and Coinbase. On Aug. 29, asset manager Grayscale achieved a court victory against the SEC following an appeal ordering a review of its application for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
The civil lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple is ongoing. Torres proposed a jury trial for the case starting in the second quarter of 2024.
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Bitcoin heads for red September, but analysts tip October as ‘days to watch’
Bitcoin investors may be in for a rollercoaster ride. While history shows September is typically a bumpy month for Bitcoin, two ETF analysts have suggested investors turn their gaze to mid-October as the next “major days to watch.”
According to historical data, Bitcoin’s monthly returns have closed in the red at the end of September nine times over the course of the last 13 years.
Popular crypto analyst Will Clemente informed his 689,000 X followers that September has had the “least number of positive-returning months” and is on a six-year negative-returning streak.
There are a number of other factors that point to a bumpy road ahead in September as well, with monitoring resource Material Indicators warning that a “full retrace” of gains made the wake of Grayscale’s victory over the SEC was a likely course of action for the largest cryptocurrency moving forward.
Looking ahead, however, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has urged investors to look to mid-October, which is the second decision deadline for the SEC for seven pending spot Bitcoin ETFs — specifically ones from BlackRock, Bitwise, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, VanEck, iShares and Invesco.
On Aug. 30, Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pinned the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the end of this year at 75%. The mid-October dates would be the last deadline for the SEC, at least in 2023.
Additionally, Seyffart noted that delays on the most recent round of spot Bitcoin ETF filings were widely expected and that he would’ve been shocked if they were approved in the first round of deadlines this past week.
After surging briefly on the Grayscale news, the price of Bitcoin has since fallen 4.5% over 24 hours and, at time of writing, was changing hands for $26,066, according to data from CoinGecko.
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Bitcoin price holds 200-day trend line as trader predicts low is in
Bitcoin is retaining this week’s gains, with some traders doubling down on their bullish BTC price bets.
Trader: Bitcoin price may have bottomed
A key moving average is buoying low-timeframe BTC price action, which continues to preserve $27,000, data shows.
Bitcoin may have retraced from its local highs above $28,000, but bears have not yet sparked a full retrace of the move.
For some, this is increasingly positive news, as BTC/USD is now successfully holding a long-term trend line lost as support earlier in August.
This comes in the form of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $27,180.
Some hourly candles closing below into Aug. 31 were not enough to spark a more significant breakdown, and Bitcoin is tightly hugging the 200-day EMA into the August monthly close.
“Bitcoin is back above the daily EMA 200-Line,” popular trader Moustache told X subscribers.
“A lot of people are waiting for a better entry, but I don't think it's going to happen.”
That perspective contrasts strongly with the slew of more bearish market takes from various well-known sources, many of which call for a return to $25,000 or lower.
Still optimistic, however, is fellow trader Jelle, who likewise placed significance on Bitcoin holding above $27,000.
“This is exactly what I want to see after an impulse. Spike up, shallow retrace, hold at key HTF level. Send it higher,” he summarized on Aug. 30.
A subsequent update revealed plans for longs in preparation for BTC/USD “taking out” local highs.
BTC price outlooks diverge
As reported, BTC price action has yet to reclaim some other bull market moving averages from earlier in the month.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, cautious in the current climate, noted overnight that some of these are now acting as resistance.
Continuing on the day, monitoring resource Material Indicators likewise warned that Bitcoin could come full circle, and that a “resurgence in bullish sentiment” was required for a higher local high.
Based on signals from its proprietary trading tools, Material Indicators flagged $27,760 and $24,750 as the upside and downside levels to watch, respectively.
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GBTC Bitcoin ‘discount’ may be gone by 2024 as share price gains 17%
Bitcoin investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), could erase its BTC price “discount” in 2024.
In an X (formerly Twitter) post on Aug. 30, monitoring resource CoinGlass predicted that the so-called “GBTC premium” would soon return.
GBTC price: From “elevator to hell” to “stairway to heaven?”
Grayscale netting a court victory over United States regulators on Aug. 29 provided an instant remedy to what was flagging GBTC performance.
The fund contains over 600,000 BTC and has traded at a discount to the Bitcoin spot price, also called net asset value, since February 2021.
What was once the “GBTC premium” has thus been negative for over two-and-a-half years, but that could soon change.
News that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission must consider GBTC’s conversion to a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund on the same terms as other applicants sent the “discount” to its lowest levels since December 2021.
At just -17%, it is now less than half of what it was at the peak when it neared 50% in what was once called an “elevator to hell.”
“Expect Grayscale $GBTC premium to close the discount next year,” CoinGlass wrote in part of subsequent commentary.
Noting the size of its assets under management, Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, reflected on the impact that GBTC had in shaping Bitcoin’s run to current all-time highs.
“Don’t forget how large $GBTC is. They hold >600k BTC, and was the single largest driver of the 2021 bull run from a flows standpoint,” he told X subscribers on Aug. 29.
“Today’s discount move from -26% to -17% is the equivalent of 56,000 BTC returning to the AUM of $GBTC if shares are marked to market.”
BTC price dices with crucial support reclaim
Eyeing the implications of the Grayscale news for BTC price action, meanwhile, market participants flagged the potential return of some key moving averages (MAs).
Chief among these are the 200-week and 200-day trend lines, both of which failed to act as support during Bitcoin’s descent to multimonth lows earlier in August.
Data nonetheless showed BTC/USD struggling to hold either level — despite the previous daily candle closing above them.
Continuing on the topic, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated that several MAs remained an essential reclaim target for bulls.
In an X post, he referenced the potential bullish invalidation of Bitcoin’s double-top structure on weekly timeframes.
“This is great initial momentum from ~$26K support which never brokedown to fully confirm the Double Top,” part of his analysis read.
“That said, $BTC needs to reclaim the Bull Market moving averages as support to be in the clear.”
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BTC price jumps to 2-week highs on Grayscale vs. SEC Bitcoin ETF win
Bitcoin neared two-week highs on Aug. 29 as news hit that digital asset manager Grayscale had won a lawsuit against United States regulators.
SEC was “arbitrary and capricious” with Bitcoin ETF rejection
Data captured an instant BTC price reaction to the event, with BTC/USD gaining $1,700 in around 30 minutes.
The news upended a stale Bitcoin trading environment that had endured after snap losses in mid-August.
A ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was wrong to reject an application by Grayscale to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) using the Bitcoin spot price as its basis.
“The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious because the SEC failed to explain its different treatment of similar products,” an unverified copy circulating online states.
“We therefore grant Grayscale’s petition and vacate the order.”
Grayscale thus joins the waiting list of firms seeking to launch what would become the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, with the SEC yet to approve any application.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD circled $27,300, having reached as high as $27,723 on Bitstamp.
Data from the Binance BTC/USD order book uploaded to X (formerly Twitter) by monitoring resource Material Indicators covered the uptick, with all order classes boosting buying in what was a market lacking liquidity.
“A 6-month view of order book data shows thin liquidity to the upside that should be quite easy to exploit for a retest of the $30s, but we’ve yet to see enough sentiment to do that because the market fears what will happen if #BTC starts printing lower lows,” part of analysis issued just prior to the Grayscale announcement stated.
Analyst heralds BTC price “bull cycle” catalyst
Continuing the reaction, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested that the court’s decision could have a positive impact on the existing ETF applications, notably that of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.
“This might sound weird, but we could be on the verge of the start of the bull cycle with this news,” he summarized to X followers in part of commentary on the back of a dedicated video update.
As reported, Grayscale’s legal battle with the SEC was lengthy and slow-moving, with CEO Michael Sonnenshein among those insisting that the firm would not rest until granted permission to convert its existing Bitcoin investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), to an ETF.
“Thank you to everyone who has been on this journey with us, especially our investors,” Sonnenshein wrote on X following news of the SEC’s setback.
“We are grateful for your support and encouragement. Next up: our legal team is actively reviewing the Court’s opinion.”
The GBTC share price was up over 17% at the time of writing on Aug. 29 at $20.60.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction Amid Mining Challenges, Trading Lulls, and Upcoming Economic Data
Bitcoin Mining Becomes More Challenging as Difficulty and Hash Rate Reach Record Highs
On August 17, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network hit an all-time high of over 414 (EH/s), accompanied by an unprecedented level of difficulty.
Even though the price of Bitcoin has remained stable at around $26,000, institutional interest in mining has boosted the network's expansion.
Nevertheless, mining operations are finding it difficult to maintain profitability due to increasing operational costs.
On August 27, the cost of mining one BTC was $45,877, whereas its spot price was $26,089, resulting in a loss of $19,588 for every mined BTC.
This struggle has negatively impacted publicly traded mining companies, causing losses and prompting them to rely on stock sales.
It is worth noting that BlackRock Fund Advisors is a significant shareholder in several underperforming mining firms. Today, the BTC/USD has risen, potentially easing some of the pressure on miners.
Bitcoin Trading Hits 4-Year Low Amid Market Slowdown
A recent report from CNBC reveals that Bitcoin's trading volume has reached its lowest point in over four years. The amount of Bitcoin traded on all exchanges has dropped to levels last seen in 2019, with an average of 129,307 BTC being traded.
This represents a significant decrease from the March high of 3.5 million BTC, which is down by approximately 94%.
The drop in trading volume is due to decreased investor participation. Despite a recent increase in the BTC/USD price to around $26,100, the crypto market has had a lackluster summer marked by regulatory pressures and a waning banking crisis, leading to reduced market activity.
However, long-term investors seem unaffected by the recent market weakness and are waiting for catalysts, such as spot Bitcoin ETF decisions.
Upcoming Economic Data May Affect Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin's market consolidation continues, but there may be increased volatility in the coming week. The US market is anticipating important macroeconomic data, such as consumer confidence, the Core PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls.
Furthermore, there is interest in possible decisions by the SEC regarding spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) for multiple organizations.
Given recent market dynamics and historical SEC delays, the impact of these factors might be short-lived. It's worth noting that BTC/USD is presently on the rise before the release of these critical economic figures.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Analyzing the technical aspects of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe reveals that Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a sideways trading band.
This range has a lower boundary at 25,400 and an upper resistance near 26,800, which seems to be a pivotal point for BTC.
When evaluating leading oscillator indicators such as the Moving Average (MA) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in conjunction with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), both suggest a continued bearish momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) further reinforces this sentiment, positioned around the 27,285 mark, suggesting that the bearish momentum remains robust.
Should Bitcoin breach the 25,400 support level, there's potential for a drop towards 23,900, possibly even as low as 21,900.
Conversely, a bullish breakout above 26,800 could pave the way for Bitcoin to approach the 28,600 level.
The direction ultimately depends on which boundary the market challenges, so it's essential to monitor the specified range closely.
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Bitcoin traders pinpoint support levels as BTC price taps $26.2K
BTC price 200-week EMA stands out as support
Data followed a BTC price uptick into the day’s Wall Street open.
BTC/USD managed $26,226, marking its highest level since Aug. 25 and fully compensating for the weakness seen overnight.
News that China had cut tax on stock trading by 50% appeared to buoy U.S. futures into the open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index subsequently opened up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.
$BTC still in a 3 day composite but has shown signs of absorption below. I wish it was liquid enough like the ES or NQ to simply justify saying "Hold 26.1 and those singles at 26275 get cleaned up"
Eyeing the trading landscape for the coming week, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, flagged the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at around $25,700 as a key support zone to protect.
“First of all, the 200-Week EMA lies beneath us. It’s at $25,650 (Bitstamp) or $24,750 (Binance). The conclusion is, you don’t want to drop beneath that level and you’d preferably want to mimic 2015-2016 sideways period,” he wrote in part of a post on X (formerly Twitter).
“If the 200-Week EMA sustains, conclusions are that we’re bottoming out here and we are potentially getting a massive entry point. If it’s lost, I’d be looking at a case of $19,500-21,500 as the next big entry point and final capitulation. On the lower timeframes and over the week, it’s still possible to sweep below the 200-Week EMA. As long as we don’t lose the level.”
Van de Poppe continued that order book liquidity “most likely” resided below the 200 EMA.
“In that regard, a sweep of that area is the most likely outcome,” he wrote.
“Two strategies can be deployed: 1 - Sweep at $25,750 for an aggressive long entry towards the other side of the range (entry can only be taken after the sweep and when $25,750 is reclaimed). 2 - Sweep of $25,200 towards $24,700-25,000 (the 200-Week EMA on Binance) and bullish divergences on higher timeframes. That’s the golden trade and could be the start of a reversal. However, $25,750 should be reclaimed in the bounce, otherwise this trade could be invalid/stopped out.”
Popular trader Titan of Crypto meanwhile highlighted $25,900 as a prominent zone of interest.
“$25,900 is the level to watch,” he summarized in part of X analysis.
Bitcoin RSI stays “very low” for second week
Elsewhere, fellow trader Pheonix referenced persisting low levels on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on lower timeframes.
As reported, depending on the timeframe in question, these reached levels not seen in five years after the 10% BTC price dip ten days ago.
“RSI still very low, for 1.5 weeks already now,” part of their X commentary on Aug. 28 read.
“7/8 times it went below 25 the last years, corresponded to the (local) bottom & a 30% minimum rise followed.
Further analysis showed the one exception to the rule coming in September 2019.
The RSI attempts to measure when an asset is overbought or oversold at a given price point.
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