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Bitcoin bulls stumble at $23.4K as Fed's 'disinflation' sparks BTC price rally
Bitcoin rebounded to key resistance into Feb. 8 as crypto markets got a boost from a familiar source.
Powell: "Disinflationary process" is here
Data showed BTC/USD reaching the important $23,400 zone on Bitstamp overnight.
The pair reacted positively to the latest comments from the United States Federal Reserve, these also serving to send equities higher during the Feb. 7 Wall Street trading session.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell again mentioned “disinflation” during his appearance, reinforcing market hopes that interest rate hikes could cool more quickly in line with inflation. These stemmed from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Feb. 1, where the Fed raised rates by 0.25%.
“The message that we were sending at the FOMC meeting last Wednesday was really that the disinflationary process — the process of getting inflation down — has begun, and it’s begun in the goods sector, which is about a quarter of our economy,” he said at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
Powell nonetheless cautioned that there was “a long way to go” and that the U.S. was in “the very early stages of disinflation.”
Despite this, risk assets rallied into the Wall Street close, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index finishing up 1.3% and 1.9%, respectively.
Bitcoin also erased previous weakness, having dropped below $22,700 earlier in the week, but bulls proved unable to tackle ask liquidity at $23,400 and beyond.
That liquidity remained in place on the day, as visible in data covering the Binance order book supplied by on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators.
“Markets rallied into the close yesterday, with Bitcoin's last H4 candle showing weakness at resistance & printing a shooting star,” popular trader Mark Cullen summarized about the latest events.
“I personally am still waiting for the lows to get swept. BUT if the BTC can close a H$ above 23.4k i will look for a push higher.”
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, was also encouraged by Bitcoin’s reaction. A flip of $23,300 to more solid support, he told Twitter followers on the day, would mean that the latest BTC price correction "is over."
BTC/USD traded at around $23,200 at the time of writing, with traders still counting down to volatility returning.
Golden cross vs. death cross to resolve in a "few days"
Looking ahead, the rest of the week held little by way of important macroeconomic cues for crypto markets.
As reported, eyes were already on next week's inflation data, this coming in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for January.
At the same time, chart analysts hoped for a positive outcome from Bitcoin's latest "golden cross" on the daily chart — its first since September 2021. At the same time, however, BTC/USD weekly timeframes continued to print a "death cross," a phenomenon which often preceded further downside in the past.
"Many say Death Cross/Golden Cross Lagging Indicator. It is Lagging for those who only think Golden Cross means Bullish, and Death Cross means Bearish. I use this indicator to understand Momentum," fellow trader Jibon wrote in part of a dedicated Twitter thread on the topic on Feb. 7.
Jibon compared the current setup to previous instances in 2015 and 2019, and added that it would take a "few days" for the impact of the crosses to become more obvious.
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Bitcoin takes ‘lion’s share’ as institutional inflows hit 7-month high
Bitcoin rebounding 40% in January sparked the largest inflows of institutional cash since June 2022, data shows.
In its “Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly” report on Jan. 30, digital asset investment and trading group CoinShares confirmed $117 million heading into crypto in the last week of the month.
Institutions “not sold” on post-Merge Ethereum
Bitcoin is still on the radar as an institutional investment opportunity.
As demonstrated by CoinShares’ latest data, it took just weeks of BTC price action recouping prior losses to spark a significant turnaround in investment habits — and not just in the United States.
“Last week’s US bears seem to have changed their mind with US$117m inflows, including US$26m from the United States,” CoinShares wrote in a Twitter thread accompanying the report.
“This is 3x the amount from last week. Total AuM had risen to US$28bn, up 43% from their November 2022 lows.”
Germany was the surprise leader, responsible for 40% of the week’s tally, followed by Canada.
Despite altcoins rallying in line with Bitcoin, however, institutions appear mainly interested in BTC when it comes to cash.
In the words of CoinShares, “the focus was almost entirely on Bitcoin,” a fact not lost on market participants eyeing a potential shift in preferences away from the Ethereum-centric decentralized finance arena.
“This is evidence that institutional money isn't sold on the Ethereum thesis,” popular Twitter account Pillage Capital argued.
The numbers likewise belied testing times for certain altcoins, with CoinShares singling out Bitcoin Cash
BCH, Stellar and Uniswap. Solana, Cardano and Polygon nonetheless saw net inflows.
“Multi-asset investment products saw outflows for the 9th consecutive week totaling US$6.4m, suggesting investors are preferring select investments,” it commented.
GBTC sinks towards new record discount
Meanwhile, after staging a marked comeback of its own, the largest Bitcoin institutional investment vehicle seems to be running out of steam once more.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) traded at a 43% discount to the Bitcoin spot price on Feb. 7, having recovered to 36.2% in mid-January.
As continues to report, Grayscale currently finds itself caught up in difficulties impacting parent company Digital Currency Group following the disintegration of FTX in November 2022.
However, GBTC was already struggling, with Grayscale attempting to force U.S. regulators to allow it to convert to the country’s first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund.
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FTX CEO testifies on ‘pure hell’ post-bankruptcy days at exchange
John Ray, who took over as CEO of crypto exchange FTX, has described some of the chaotic experiences at the firm following the company declaring bankruptcy.
In testimony for FTX’s case in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware on Feb. 6, Ray said he and other professionals had “carefully” been conducting an investigation into FTX’s activities, due to the company having no physical office. The FTX CEO seemed to be pushing back against a motion to assign an independent examiner to the bankruptcy case, claiming that “inadvertent errors” could result in “hundreds of millions of dollars of value” being destroyed.
According to Ray, when he took control of FTX in November 2022, there was “not a single list of anything” related to bank accounts, income, insurance or personnel, causing a “massive scramble for information.” The FTX CEO said the same day he helped file a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition, and there were multiple attempts to steal crypto, resulting in security experts and liquidators moving quickly to secure funds.
“Your normal first-day petition is chaotic as sometimes can be — this was something that I have never experienced,” said Ray. “Those hacks went on virtually all night long [...] It was really 48 hours of what I can only describe as pure hell.”
The FTX CEO claimed he had had no connection with former executives at the exchange, including Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison, FTX co-founder Gary Wang and former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried or his parents prior to taking control of the company. According to Ray, anyone “that was in a control position” under Bankman-Fried no longer had any authority to direct FTX company actions.
Ray’s testimony came amid a motion from the Office of the U.S. Trustee arguing the court should appoint an independent examiner who would release a public report providing transparency into the bankruptcy proceedings. Juliet Sarkessian, representing the U.S. Trustee’s office, suggested that, although Ray had no connection to Bankman-Fried prior to his taking over as CEO, the appointment of an examiner was still in the public interest.
FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings are ongoing as debtors and interested parties will make motions over the firm’s assets, investigate the company, and release information potentially affecting Bankman-Fried’s criminal case. The legal team representing FTX debtors requested the issuance of subpoenas for information and documents from Bankman-Fried’s immediate family on Feb. 1.
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Terra Luna Classic Price Prediction as $150 Million Trading Volume Comes In – Here are Key Levels to Watch
The Terra Luna Classic price has dropped by 3.5% in the past 24 hours, falling to $0.00018462 following losses for the overall cryptocurrency market this weekend. Its current price represents a 5% gain in a week and an 18% increase in the last 30 days, with the altcoin benefitting from a number of proposals from the Terra Luna Classic community to boost its price.
And with LUNC's 24-hour trading remaining elevated at just over $150 million, there remains enough liquidity for the coin to witness further gains in the near term. Of course, it may need to correct downwards a little further before it resumes rising.
Terra Luna Classic Price Prediction as $150 Million Trading Volume Comes In – Here are Key Levels to Watch
LUNC's indicators suggest that the token may have to fall a little before rising again. Its relative strength index (purple) teeters around the 50 mark, having dropped to nearly 30 over the weekend, suggesting that it has moved into a selling phase.
In parallel, LUNC's 30-day moving average (red) has begun falling towards its 200-day (blue). This descent may not end until it touches or falls below the longer-term average, at which point investors can begin to expect further rises.
In terms of resistance and support levels, it seems that $0.00018 may be the key support level at the moment. If LUNC falls below this price, the probability of additional losses increases, although a descent to this level may aslo be the precursor to a recovery.
Conversely, $0.00019 is LUNC's resistance level now, implying that a break through this level may herald further gains.
Looking at the bigger picture, LUNC holders have various reasons to be optimistic in the longer term.
Most fundamentally, the Terra Luna Classic community is continuously working to reduce LUNC's supply and increase its value. A recent proposal to re-peg the sister stablecoin USTC to $1 has now passed, something which will likely have a positive impact on LUNC's price in the coming days and weeks.
While details still need to be ironed out, the accepted proposal would likely require a significant burn of LUNC tokens. In particular, the proposal's authors write that one of its main pros is that it would involve "designing a more efficient system for LUNC and USTC that can burn more than the tax rate can."
As such, expect the burning of LUNC to accelerate in the not-too-distant future. So far, around 38.6 billion LUNC have been burned to date, out of a total circulating supply of 6.87 trillion, meaning that there's still a long way to go.
On the subject of burning LUNC, the past couple of weeks also saw an update to the Terra Luna Classic protocol that provides for whitelists in relation to its native on-chain tax burn. Such whitelists can exempt certain parties from the on-chain burn, a change that Binance had sought in order to resume its own regular burn of trading fees.
Again, this all suggests that the LUNC burn will expand substantially as the year progresses, with many holders holding out for returns to the $0.001 and $0.01 levels (or beyond).
However, ongoing discord within the Terra Luna Classic community may hinder efforts to reach these targets, such as the current proposal to end payments to developer Jacob Gadikian allegedly for "attacking and slandering validators on the Luna Classic Blockchain."
While the loss of one developer may not be fatal for the Terra Luna Classic network, it potentially puts off other developers from contributing. It also raises the possibility that the community may not agree on a plan for implementing the aforementioned re-peg proposal, which has passed without a definite and fixed roadmap.
Despite this, LUNC is definitely one to watch over the coming year, and could be one of 2023's big winners.
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Bitcoin price over $20K creates FOMO with 620K new BTC wallets
The Bitcoin price surge above $20,000 in the second week of January led to a market FOMO (fear of missing out), especially among small BTC holders.
There was a significant surge in BTC addresses holding 0.1 BTC or less after Jan. 13. According to data shared by crypto analytics firm Santiment, 620,000 new BTC addresses have popped up since the Jan. 13 BTC price surge, totaling 39.8 million.
The rise in Bitcoin addresses holding small amounts indicates regrowing investor optimism in 2023. The growth of such small addresses was very limited and slowed remarkably post-FTX collapse in November 2022, but 2023 has seen the rate of new address creation increase.
The recent spike in small Bitcoin addresses is the highest since November 2022, when BTC dipped to its cycle low of around $16,000. The price decline prompted small traders to scoop up BTC at a lower price. The current surge is attributed to a growing bullish sentiment in the market where, apart from Bitcoin, several altcoins have also recorded multimonth highs, while the overall crypto market surged over 30%.
Bitcoin continued its bullish momentum into the first week of February, reaching a five-month-high above $24,000. However, the $24,000 resistance proved too much to hold, with the price hovering around $23,000 at the time of writing. Market pundits believe February may not be as bullish as January.
Amid confusion over how incoming United States macroeconomic data may affect market sentiment, market analysts have warned that the rebound in crypto and stocks this year may flip bearish this month. They attributed the potential upcoming downward trend to the extent of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
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Bitcoin & Ethereum Price Predictions: Non-Farm Payrolls Turn Sentiment Bearish — How Low Can BTC & ETH Go?
The crypto markets have been in a state of flux over the past few weeks, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices both experiencing significant drops. This has been largely attributed to the recent US non-farm payrolls report, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth. As a result, sentiment in the markets has shifted to bearish and investors are now wondering how low Bitcoin and Ethereum prices could go.
Record Breaking US Non-Farm Payrolls Jump By 517,000 In January
The US Labor Department recently reported that, after taking into account seasonal changes, there was an increase of 517,000 non-farm jobs in the month of January. According to economists' predictions, there was expected to be an increase in employment of 170,000. The hourly earnings for the month rose by 0.3% from the preceding month, in accordance with the consensus estimate.
The rate of earnings growth slowed from 4.8% in December to 4.4% in January, compared to the estimated figure of 4.3%. This marks a decrease from the prior year's numbers.
The average working hours rose to 34.7 over the course of last month, which is an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous period. Meanwhile, the total weekly aggregate hours witnessed a significant 1.2% jump, settling at 115.6.
As the US economic position is improving, the American dollar is strengthening in relation to other global currencies. This increase has affected both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, causing them to dip lower. The Federal Reserve's decision on a likely rate hike has also contributed to this development.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $23,300 with a 24-hour trading volume of $25 billion. It holds the top spot on CoinMarketCap and has a market capitalization of over $449 billion. There are 19.28 million BTC coins in circulation and a maximum supply of 21 million coins.
Bitcoin is trending downward and its immediate support area sits at $23,300. If this level is breached, it may see further losses to $23,000 - a potential point of support marked by a rising trendline.
According to the RSI and MACD indicators, selling pressure may increase and consequently push the BTC price downward to reach $22,750 as its next support area.
Currently, the 50-day exponential moving average is displaying a bullish trend above $23,300 for BTC/USD so we could see a rebound soon. If the price breaks out of $23,950 on the upside, it might go up toward $24,500.
Ethereum Price
Ethereum's current trading price is $1,650 and the 24-hour volume stands at $7.6 billion. The crypto asset has seen a 0.50% surge in the last 24 hours. It currently holds a market capitalization of $202 billion and is ranked 2nd on CoinMarketCap.
Ethereum's value dropped significantly after failing to surpass the $1,700 resistance level. The sudden fall was presumably because investors opted to take profits while Ethereum was in an overly-bought position and had already achieved a 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1,635.
If ETH prices fail to remain above the current level, it is possible for them to drop to $1,615, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators of Ethereum have both dropped to 56 and 0.40 respectively, indicating that ETH may no longer be in an overbought state. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average also suggests a potential bullish uptrend with prices going above the $1,620 mark.
Ethereum is presently dealing with resistance levels at around $1,650 and $1,680. If these figures are successfully broken through, Ethereum might see an increase in its price up to a maximum of $1720.
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$20K Bitcoin may return, says analyst as US hits 54-year low
Bitcoin fell prior to the Feb. 3 Wall Street open as fresh United States economic data came in “hot hot hot.”
“Think again” over U.S. recession
Data followed BTC/USD as it erased gains from earlier in the day to center on $23,000 support.
The pair reacted negatively to U.S. unemployment data for January, which beat expectations so considerably that overall jobless figures fell to their lowest since 1969.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) data likewise outperformed, while average hourly earnings conformed to forecast 0.3% growth.
“HUGE beat in NFP,” popular analytics account Tedtalksmacro responded on Twitter.
Returning to predictions from the day prior, Tedtalksmacro eyed a potential opportunity to increase Bitcoin exposure, given the latest come-down, which it said could take BTC/USD all the way to $20,000.
“An opportunity to reload on this news, potentially,” a further tweet added.
Bitcoin’s cold feet come from the implication that a stronger-than-forecast labor market allows the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter, less liquid monetary conditions for a longer period of time.
“US economy sliding into a recession? Well, think again. At least not in the near term,” economist and analyst Jan Wüstenfeld continued.
$25,000 Bitcoin now “crowded trade”
As reported, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% this week, in line with almost all expectations, while Chair Jerome Powell caused excitement by using the term “disinflation” in accompanying comments.
BTC/USD thus spiked above $24,000 for the second time in as many days, with market participants still hopeful of a trip to $25,000 before a more significant retracement.
“BTC has had a clean breakout above its macro downtrend line + a backtest,” investment research resource Game of Trades stated.
“The next big resistance to clear is the $25k region.”
Popular trader Crypto Tony nonetheless acknowledged that that target may no longer materialize.
“$25,000 is my main target, but I am seeing now a lot of people asking for this, and is becoming a crowded trade,” he wrote in part of a fresh update on the day.
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Why did Bitcoin price go down today? BTC traders brace for $23K retest
Bitcoin headed toward $23,000 on Feb. 3 after a night of losses erased bulls’ latest progress.
Dollar rebound halts crypto party
Data showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $23,329 on Bitstamp.
The pair had come off a second trip above the $24,000 mark at the Feb. 2 Wall Street open, with buyers failing to sustain momentum amid macro market volatility.
In classic style for interest rate announcements by the United States Federal Reserve, an initial move was soon countered, with Bitcoin returning to its prior position.
Conditions worsened thanks to a rebound in U.S. dollar strength, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) putting in a conspicuous bounce, which it began to consolidate on the day.
“Once the DXY Dollar finds support and begins to bounce hard, then we will see pullbacks on our Crypto bags,” popular trader Crypto Tony warned.
“Time to pay attention.”
Contributor Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile eyed a level of 102 for DXY to spark inversely-correlated drops across risk assets.
“I do expect its likely DXY will retest what was support and now overhead resistance,” Matthew Dixon, founder and CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, continued in his own analysis.
“This would align with my inverse expectation on Btc and Crypto moving down a touch before a final 'blowoff' high (not much higher imo).”
CPI presents fresh worry
Macro-induced price pressure could meanwhile linger through February, some believe.
In its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital drew particular attention to the next U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, set for release on Feb. 14.
“Post-FOMC, we have a heap of 2nd tier data releases including the important ISM services and NFP. However the decider will be the Valentine's Day CPI - and we think there are upside risks to that release,” it stated.
“Firstly, the Cleveland Fed's inflation Nowcast is showing >0.6% print for Jan, even if it has overstated inflation the past few months.”
Thanks to a change in the way CPI is calibrated, QCP suspected that forthcoming numbers later in 2023 could be higher than the market expects. Whether psychological or not, the net impact could disappoint crypto bulls.
“In Europe, a similar reweight has led to a surge in the January CPI released this week. Hence, we expect downside risks to materialize from here - either at this meeting, or after the next CPI release,” QCP added.
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, meanwhile, consensus remained firm over the next rate hike in mid-March being identical to the February one at 25 basis points.
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Indian retail chain rolls out support for CBDC payments in stores: Report
One of India’s biggest retail chains, Reliance Retail, announced that they have started accepting the digital rupee at one of its store lines and plans to extend the rollout to all its businesses.
In a report by Tech Crunch, the company said central bank digital currency (CBDC) support is already rolled out at Freshpik, its gourmet store line. In addition, the firm also noted that it would be expanding support for the digital rupee to all of its properties, a move that could push adoption forward for the country’s CBDC.
V Subramaniam, an executive at Reliance Retail, pointed out that accepting the central bank digital currency adheres to the firm’s vision of offering “the power of choice” to Indian consumers. The executive also highlighted that the initiative allows the firm to provide an alternative payment option within its stores.
According to the report, Reliance Retail partnered with ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and fintech company, Innoviti Technologies to roll out support for the CBDC. Consumers who opt to pay with the digital rupee will receive a QR code at the store to complete their payment.
Plans for the country’s CBDC were outlined by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Oct. 7 in a 51-page note. The country’s central bank defined various factors, including the potential positive and negative effects. According to the RBI, one of the motivations behind a CBDC is reducing the operational costs of managing cash.
The RBI launched the wholesale pilot of the digital rupee in November 2022 for institutions and merchants. On Dec. 1, 2022, the central bank started the CBDC pilot for retail consumers within a closed user group composed of merchants and customers.
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FTX asks bankruptcy judge to stop BlockFi from claiming Robinhood shares
Embattled crypto exchange FTX asked for the assistance of a United States bankruptcy judge to prevent crypto lending firm BlockFi from claiming around $450 million worth of Robinhood shares purchased by its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.
On Nov. 28, BlockFi filed a lawsuit demanding Emergent Fidelity Technologies, Bankman-Fried’s holding company, to turn over 56 million Robinhood Markets shares. The stocks were allegedly put up as collateral for BlockFi’s loans to crypto trading firm Alameda Research.
Both FTX and Alameda filed for bankruptcy before settling the BlockFi loans. However, FTX argued through a filing in a U.S. bankruptcy court that the law protects the company from debt-collecting efforts.
FTX said that the shares are owned by Alameda Research and insisted that the embattled FTX companies should keep the shares while investigations on other claims to the ownership are ongoing. Apart from BlockFi, Bankman-Fried and FTX creditor Yonathan Ben Shimon are laying claim to the shares.
If the court decides to dismiss the request to keep the shares, FTX also suggested an alternative approach which is to “extend the automatic stay” of the assets. This will “ensure that all creditors—including BlockFi and the others—can participate in an orderly claims process,” according to FTX.
After claiming to only have $100,000 left in his bank, Bankman-Fried was recently granted release, complying with the strict bail conditions worth $250 million. The bond was secured by the former FTX CEO's parents by using the equity of their house based in California.
The crypto community was baffled by how Bankman-Fried was able to meet the seemingly insurmountable requirement after purporting that he didn’t have a lot of money left. Some even accused the former FTX CEO of using stolen customer funds to keep himself out of jail. Others question the fairness of Bankman-Fried being able to spend the holidays in a luxury home.
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SBF sent home after his parents put up their house to cover his astronomical bail bond
On Dec. 21, Reuters reported that Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX — who is now facing criminal charges that could land him in jail for the rest of his life — may be granted bail in the United States ahead of his trial.
Prosecutor Nicholas Roos reportedly proposed granting bail to Bankman-Fried, often referred to as “SBF,” on the conditions of a $250 million bond, home detention, location monitoring and the surrender of his passport.
On Dec. 22, The New York Times reported that SBF’s bail was approved and he will live with his parents in Palo Alto, California. His parents secured his bail with the equity in their house.
SBF claimed earlier that, after the collapse of the company he founded and his resignation as its CEO, he had only $100,000 in his bank account.
U.S. Magistrate Judge Gabriel Gorenstein in a federal district court in Manhattan approved the bail proposal, adding that SBF will require “strict pretrial supervision,” including mental health treatment and evaluation. SBF is known to suffer from depression and takes prescription medications.
His defense counsel stated that SBF has agreed to the terms offered. SBF was not offered bail when he was arrested in the Bahamas at the behest of U.S. authorities on grounds that he presented a flight risk. He returned to the United States in the custody of the Federal Bureau of Investigation on Dec. 20.
This decision was handed down on the same day that former colleagues Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang pleaded guilty to fraud charges. The two are cooperating with the investigation. Ellison avoided charges that could have seen her sent to prison for 110 years.
Authorities have made no mention yet of the location of former FTX executive Nishad Singh, who formed SBF’s inner circle at the company along with Wang and Ellison.
SBF’s next court appearance is scheduled for Jan. 5, 2023.
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Bitcoin dips below $16.7K as US GDP meets fresh BTC price 'death cross'
Bitcoin fell at the Dec. 22 Wall Street open as United States equities reversed previous gains.
Bitcoin risks new and unseen "death cross
Data showed BTC/USD dipping to intraday lows of $16,650 on Bitstamp.
The pair remained a conspicuous stocks copycat as the S&P 500 opened down 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index traded down 1.8% at the time of writing.
The weakness appeared to be a reaction to stronger-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q3, data for which was released prior to the open.
Despite notionally a sign of recovery, concerns focused on the Federal Reserve continuing its restrictive economic policy on the assumption that the economy would be able to withstand the measures.
This would notionally come in the form of longer-lasting interest rate hikes, with analysis already arguing that a “pivot” in policy was unlikely until 2024 at the earliest.
As such, risk assets saw no relief from the GDP print, further disappointing traders hoping for a Santa rally.
“Clear bearish retest. Downtrend intact,” trader and analyst Il Capo of Crypto commented on the daily S&P 500 chart.
Il Capo of Crypto warned earlier this week that markets as a whole were “not prepared” for what would be fresh upcoming losses.
On Bitcoin, the mood among some pundits was likewise firmly bearish.
Bleeding Crypto highlighted a never-before-seen “death cross” involving the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) now due.
Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile drew attention to the yearly close, this likely to become Bitcoin’s third negative year ever.
“The percentage loss this year is sitting right in between the other two negative years, being 2014 and 2018,” he noted.
Elsewhere, analyst Toni Ghinea had little optimism in store for Bitcoin bulls, arguing that the macro bottom would not appear until Q1 2023.
“Capitulation to 11-14k. Bottom in Q1 2023. Expecting the final move down soon,” a tweet read on the day.
Dollar seeks comeback after GDP print
The main beneficiary of the GDP print, meanwhile, was the U.S. dollar, which on the day saw confident rebound in strength.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) circled 104.5 at the time of writing, up from lows of 103.75 from before the open.
The greenback thus went some way to recovering losses engendered by a surprise intervention by the Bank of Japan earlier in the week.
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Crypto could spark the next financial crisis, says India’s RBI head
The governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Shaktikanta Das, did not mince his words when discussing the crypto sector at a recent conference, asserting that “private” crypto will be behind the next financial crisis.
Speaking at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit on Dec. 21, Das argued that private cryptocurrencies — those that are not issued by banks or governments — are backed by nothing and are purely tools for speculation.
“They have no underlying value. They have huge inherent risks for our macroeconomic and financial stability. I am yet to hear any credible argument about what public good or what public purpose it serves,” he said.
Adding to those sentiments, Das went on to suggest that a full-scale crypto ban in India would be the best approach moving forward:
“It [private cryptocurrency trade] is a hundred percent speculative activity, and I would still hold the view that it should be prohibited … because, if it is allowed to grow, if you try to regulate it and allow it to grow, please mark my words, the next financial crisis will come from private cryptocurrencies.”
Highlighting examples of such risk, the RBI head pointed to the recent FTX implosion led by the freshly extradited Sam Bankman Fried.
“I don't think we need to say anything more about our stand after the developments over the last one year, including the latest episode around FTX,” he said.
Such comments mark another instance in which a key figure in politics or finance has blamed the crypto sector for FTX’s collapse, with many U.S. senators in particular taking the chance to slam digital assets over the past few weeks.
Das, of course, spoke in much more favorable terms of central bank digital currencies, emphasizing that the RBI is actively pushing to get its digital rupee off the ground.
"You will see in days to come more and more central banks will embrace digital currencies and India has been in the forefront of the digital revolution in the current century,” he said.
The RBI has historically had a frosty view on crypto and questioned its value on several occasions. Das’ latest comments show that the sentiment is only getting worse, as the bank had previously ranked the sector at the bottom of its list of systemic risks as recently as June.
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Cardano Price Forecast as Ripple CTO Responds to Charles Hoskinson’s Comments – This is What Happened
ADA, the native cryptocurrency of the smart-contract-enabled, high-performance Cardano blockchain, bounced by around 2% on Tuesday, and was last changing hands in the $0.26 area, having briefly dipped under $0.25 during Monday’s crypto-wide sell-off on hawkish central bank/recession concerns.
ADA’s pick-up on Tuesday comes amid a broad recovery in cryptocurrency markets, despite another hawkish central bank surprise, this time from the Bank of Japan, who unexpectedly tweaked their so-called “yield curve control” policy, facilitating a near 20 bps jump in Japanese 10-year government bond yields (similar to the effect of a rate hike).
However, price predictions remain downbeat. ADA’s recovery on Tuesday still leaves the cryptocurrency down more than 3.0% on the week and lower by around 19% on the month. Meanwhile, versus the start of the quarter, ADA has lost about 40% of its value, with many bears confident that the cryptocurrency is set for further losses.
ADA traders have largely ignored the fact that Cardano’s founder Charles Hoskinson, who also functions as Input Output Hong Kong’s (IOHK) CEO, has fallen out with the Ripple community. IOHK is the non-profit company tasked with the development of Cardano and other crypto projects.
Hoskinson Has Had it With the Ripple Community, Ripple CTO Responds
At the end of last week, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson uploaded a video to Twitter outlining his reasons as to why he will no longer respond to questions about the Ripple project, or engage with members of the Ripple community.
The Ripple community has unfairly attacked Hoskinson many times after taking comments that he has made about their project out of context, he claimed, before labeling the Ripple community the most toxic in the crypto space.
A day later, in reply to a comment criticizing his decision to no longer engage with the Ripple community, Hoskinson doubled down on his decision and labeled the Ripple community “toxic and petty”. He also went a step further, criticizing XRP itself by saying it offers “no partnership or technical value”.
David Schwartz, Ripple’s CTO, stuck up for his community in a response to Hoskinson’s tweet. “You may want to wait a few days, read this tweet back, and think about whether you're sure that's the combination of things you really want to say”, Schwartz said.
Price Prediction – ADA’s Pace of Decline to Slow, But $0.20 Looks Inevitable
The pace of ADA’s recent decline has some traders betting that the cryptocurrency’s price might now see some stabilization. ADA’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) score has been below 30 now for five days, signifying that ADA has entered a period of being “over-sold”. In recent months, when the RSI has pointed to ADA being oversold, its price has usually stabilized or even enjoyed a modest short-term recovery in the following days and weeks.
ADA’s latest drop in the last few weeks has also seen it break below a downward trend channel that had been in play since August. Traders have taken this as another sign that the cryptocurrency is falling in value at a likely unsustainable pace.
However, though there are technical indications that ADA might see some short-term stabilization, ADA’s price looks vulnerable to significant further losses in the medium term. That’s because a longer-term downtrend from the September 2021 record high of around $3.16 remains very much intact. The cryptocurrency also continues to trade below all of its major moving averages, all of which are pointing lower, with the 21-Day Moving Average having recently acted as a key area of resistance. Many bears are betting on a test of support under $0.20 in early 2023.
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Bitcoin ditches $16K dip as 'Leeroy Jenkins' Bank of Japan flattens dollar
Bitcoin recovered from an overnight dip on Dec. 20 as Japan’s central bank sparked chaos on global financial markets.
Analyst likens BoJ policy to FTX
Data showed BTC/USD returning to near $17,000 after falling over 3% through the course of Dec. 19.
The largest cryptocurrency benefitted from flash U.S. dollar weakness, this coming on the back of a surprise policy tweak from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Long a deflationary environment with ultra-low interest rates, Japan woke up to a sea change on the day as policymakers lifted the cap on bond yields. The yen instantly gained against the dollar, while Japan’s Nikkei plummeted.
Reacting, Bitcoin analysts were anything but jubilant despite the short-term benefits for BTC/USD.
Japan, seeming to follow the U.S. in attempting to tame inflation, had unleashed a can of worms which would only become apparent later, they said.
“That’s what happens when you artificially surprises the free market,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of exchange BitMEX, tweeted, likely intending to write “suppress” instead of “surprises.”
“It blows up in your face. Expect 10yr JGB yields to trade at the 0.50% yield ceiling once USD liquidity falters in 1Q23. Yachtzee.”
Hayes had previously written about central banks’ practice of yield curve control (YCC), which at the time he said was irreversible once started.
A further post meanwhile focused on BoJ ownership of Japanese bonds, now above 50%. This scenario, he said, was reminiscent of the last days of defunct exchange FTX.
“It’s like the BOJ is taking lessons from (FTX ex-CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried,” Hayes wrote.
“When you own over 50% of a market is it even a market anymore? $FTT = $JGB.”
Other responses were no less frank in their appraisal of the BoJ, with Marty Bent, founder of crypto media company TFTC, likening the move to it having “pulled Leeroy Jenkins on the global financial system.”
“A minor policy tweak has huge implications that will take weeks to play out,” part of remarks from portfolio manager Christian H. Cooper added.
“BOJ was the last low yield holdout and now that changes. Spike in rates, stocks lower (for weeks), + chaos.”
U.S. dollar meets "perfect storm"
The Japan story fed into an already fervent narrative over dollar strength, this hitting six-month lows earlier in December.
"The perfect storm for a DXY top has formed," popular analytics account Tedtalksmacro summarized.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) thus abandoned its attempt at a sustained recovery on intraday timeframes, retreating to lows under 104 on the day.
"Major central banks are now playing catch-up to the Fed, including the most dovish —> the Bank of Japan. The race to tame inflation outside of the US is on, and the US look to have already done it."
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Judge denies motion allowing SBF to use messaging apps
A federal judge has denied a joint agreement between Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried’s legal team and prosecutors that would have allowed the former FTX CEO to use certain messaging apps.
In a Feb. 7 filing for the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, Judge Lewis Kaplan denied a motion proposing Bankman-Fried be allowed to use messaging services, including FaceTime, Zoom and Facebook Messenger. The judge did not provide a reason for denying the motion “without prejudice” but added the matter would be subject to oral arguments in a Feb. 9 hearing.
Prosecutors filed a motion in January suggesting the former FTX CEO not be permitted to use “any encrypted or ephemeral call or messaging application” as a condition of his bail following allegations of contacting witnesses. Judge Kaplan ruled on Feb. 1 that SBF was barred from contacting FTX and Alameda employees using the Signal app, citing a risk of “inappropriate contact with prospective witnesses.”
However, federal prosecutors discussed modifying the bail condition with Bankman-Fried’s lawyers, which would have allowed him to access FaceTime, Zoom, iMessage, SMS text, email and Facebook Messenger. The former FTX CEO would also have been allowed to use WhatsApp if “monitoring technology is installed on his cellphone that automatically logs and preserves all WhatsApp communications.”
Authorities alleged Bankman-Fried had attempted to influence witnesses based on communications uncovered between SBF and FTX US general counsel Ryne Miller and current FTX CEO John Ray. The Feb. 1 ruling does not allow communications between SBF and current or former employees of FTX or Alameda Research “except in the presence of counsel.”
Bankman-Fried was arrested in December and charged with eight criminal counts, including wire fraud in the Southern District of New York. His trial is scheduled to begin in October, while FTX’s bankruptcy case is ongoing in the District of Delaware. SBF remains under house arrest at his parents’ California home, permitted to leave only for sanctioned events, including court appearances.
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Bitcoin sees golden cross which last hit 2 months before all-time high
Bitcoin lingered near $23,000 on Feb. 7 as a key chart phenomenon hit for the first time in 18 months.
Battle of the Bitcoin crosses begins
Data showed BTC/USD tracking sideways overnight, having shunned volatility at the week’s first Wall Street open.
While failing to flip $23,000 to support, the pair nonetheless saw a potentially significant event on Feb. 6 in the form of a “golden cross” on the daily chart.
This refers to the rising 50-period moving average crossing over the 200-period moving average. The last time that this occurred on daily timeframes was in September 2021 — two months before Bitcoin’s latest all-time high.
Some crypto analysts have keenly watched the cross, with Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, arguing that $25,000 could reappear as a result.
“Bitcoin goldencross just happened!” he summarized in a Twitter reaction.
“This potential correction could see BTC retest $20k (200DMA and key support), then in the bullish case, test $25k next. Make $25k support and it's nail in the coffin for the bears.”
The picture remained complicated on the day thanks to an upcoming “countercross” on weekly timeframes, where the 50-period moving average remained on course to drop below the 200-period one — a phenomenon known as a “death cross” for its conversely detrimental impact on BTC price action.
For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, it remained uncertain whether the golden cross alone could propel BTC/USD higher.
“Whether it’s enough to get a legit test of the $25k range remains to be seen,” it wrote in part of a commentary on the Binance order book.
An accompanying chart showed major resistance in the form of ask liquidity stacked at $23,500 — the first major hurdle for bulls to overcome in the event of a move higher.
Powell speech “only key factor” of macro week
Another factor on the radar for Feb. 7 came from comments from the United States Federal Reserve.
Ahead of next week’s macroeconomic data prints, multiple Fed officials were set to speak, with Chair Jerome Powell’s words expected to be the most significant regarding market-moving potential.
“Nothing special this week, the only key factor to watch is Powell tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps one more sweep for correction and then the party should continue rallying upwards,“ part of a Twitter analysis by Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe stated on Feb. 6.
Van de Poppe added that “buy the dip” might be an appropriate option on altcoins in the meantime, as Material Indicators noted was already the case with Bitcoin whales.
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Bitcoin trader fears a bear market comeback: Watch the US dollar
Bitcoin stayed motionless at the Feb. 6 Wall Street open as analysis showed an “interesting dynamic” in play on BTC price charts.
Data followed BTC/USD as it ignored the start of United States equities trading to stay near $22,800.
The pair had seen flash volatility into the weekly close, abandoning levels nearer its six-month highs above $24,000.
Bitcoin thus worried market participants as the week began, with an increasing number eyeing a potential retest of $20,000 or lower.
For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, attention now turned to two classic chart features: a “golden cross” on daily timeframes and a “death cross” on weekly timeframes.
Representing interplay between the 50- and 200-day moving averages, golden and death crosses traditionally indicate upcoming bullish and bearish moves, respectively.
Such is their notoriety that automated trading tools may buy or sell as required should one or both events occur.
“At the moment it occurs, a Golden Cross on the Bitcoin D chart could trigger some buying. Likewise, a pending Death Cross on the W chart will trigger some algotrading bots to sell,” Material Indicators wrote in a tweet on the day.
It also highlighted upcoming comments from Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Due on Feb. 7, cues over inflation policy present in Powell’s words could easily move markets.
Continuing on the chart crosses, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan described them as an “interesting dynamic evolving.”
“Bitcoin is headed for an eminent Golden Cross on the D chart which is short term bullish and could trigger some TA algos to buy. We are also headed for a Death Cross on the W chart which is longer term bearish,” he stated in his own tweet.
Dollar strength rebounding is “bad news” for crypto
On the macro, U.S. stocks were down slightly at the open, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index losing 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively. Asian stocks had also finished the day lower.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), meanwhile, continued its rebound in a move threatening to pressure risk assets further.
The Index traded above 103.6 at the time of writing, its highest since Jan. 9, as analysts began to fear for the health of the crypto rally.
“It appears the dollar is attempting to reclaim its yearly uptrend,” popular trader and analyst Roman summarized.
“This is bad news for crypto & stocks because it will indicate a pullback / continuation of bear market. This week is very important. A reclaim of trend, $SPX loses 4100, & I turn back to macro bearish.”
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Bitcoin price may retest $20K on US CPI amid absence of soft landing — trader
Bitcoin could face a retest of $20,000 and the United States fail its plans for a “soft landing” on inflation, new analysis says.
U.S. "probably" headed for recession — Van de Poppe
Amid confusion over how incoming U.S. macroeconomic data may affect market sentiment, there is an increasing chance that the rebound seen in crypto and stocks this year may flip bearish, Van de Poppe says.
Bitcoin, for example, put in 40% gains in January, but like some others, he believes that a disappointing February is a real possibility.
“I think that people should understand that there is no soft landing, that there is likely a continuation of this downwards trend on the markets,” he said about the longer-term status quo.
The U.S., Van de Poppe continued, would “probably have” a recession thanks to the extent of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.
Should a comedown begin to show itself, for BTC/USD, a potential retest target lies between $20,000 and $21,000.
Much depends on the outcome of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, due Feb. 14. Should it show that inflation is slowing less than expected or even disrupting that downtrend, the results could benefit the U.S. dollar while taking the wind out of the risk asset rally.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as Cointelegraph reported, is currently in the process of consolidating after dropping 13% since mid-2022, when it circled twenty-year highs.
“In this case, the next week will probably bring a case of the dollar starting to rally, or the week after with CPI and PPI, so that’s why it’s very important to keep an eye on this chart,” Van de Poppe added.
Bitcoin bears "stuck in cash"
Ahead of a less significant macroeconomic week, meanwhile, others continued to debate the potential for a BTC price pullback.
A higher low would provide a better entry point for longs, popular trader Crypto Tony suggested, arguing that the bear market remained in play
"Even if this was the start of a bull market, and personally I am still in the camp we are not You can still get a good safer entry on the higher low pullback," he told Twitter followers on the day.
Some familiar bullish voices were as active as ever, however, including cypto and market education, analysis and prediction tool, IncomeSharks.
"People still seem to be confused as to why it's been up only," it summarized in a tweet on Feb. 3.
BTC/USD traded at around $23,400 at the time of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, with around 15 hours until the U.S. weekly close.
"Just remember majority of bulls are still holding and not selling. Bears are stuck in cash. Slowly but surely the bears are caving in and buying. The stubborn ones keep shorting driving price up further."
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Kazakhstan’s digital currency in pilot stage, per Binance, National Bank joint report
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has launched a digital tenge pilot project, according to a report published jointly by the bank and Binance on Feb. 3. The report looked at global approaches to digital asset regulation, the digital asset industry and decentralized finance (DeFi) in Central Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States in particular.
In his introduction to the report, NBK Deputy governor Berik Sholpankupov wrote about the bank’s vision of a “collaboration between Traditional Finance and DeFi” that could increase financial inclusion and support international trade. He added:
“In Kazakhstan, we also started a practical R&D project to explore how our CBDC – Digital Tenge, can bridge the world of crypto with traditional fiat payments infrastructure.”
Sholpankupov’s statement confirmed that the NBK is on time with plans set out in its official roadmap. Kazakhstan announced its digital tenge project in 2020. The project is set to run through the end of 2025. The report also stated:
“A Digital Tenge CDBC initiative […] Is already in a pilot phase using the controlled environment, real consumers and merchants. Currently, BNB Chain and NBK are testing CBDC integration with the [BNB] public decentralised blockchain to bridge the gap even further between traditional banking and crypto ecosystem.”
Kazakhstan’s Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) granted Binance a permanent license to manage a digital asset platform and provide custody services in October 2022. Later that month, the NBK said in 2022 that it would integrate its CBDC on the Binance BNB chain.
On Jan. 27, the ASFA published a consultation paper examining the shortcomings of the Astana International Financial Centre’s Digital Asset Trading Facility (DATF) regulatory framework, which was developed in 2018. That report suggested additional risk mitigation measures and potential changes to the regulatory framework. Kazakhstan is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin miners.
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Binance re-enters South Korea with GOPAX exchange
Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance is coming back to South Korea with a new acquisition of the local crypto trading platform Gopax.
Binance has acquired a majority stake in the troubled crypto exchange Gopax, re-entering South Korea after exiting the market two years ago, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 3.
The funding for the transaction reportedly came from a finance-initiated investment project known as the Industry Recovery Initiative, to which Binance pledged $1 billion.
Binance chief business officer Yibo Ling said that Binance has acquired a “meaningful” equity position at Gopax without disclosing the terms of the deal.
The acquisition comes a few months after Gopax halted withdrawals from certain products in November 2022 amid the collapse of the FTX exchange. According to Ling, Binance plans to spend the new capital into the exchange to enable customer withdrawals and interest payments for Gopax’s yield product GoFi.
“The fundamental thrust of this deal was to support customers and make sure that any customers who want to withdraw their assets have the ability to do so,” Ling stated.
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Avalanche 'bull trap' risks pushing AVAX price down by 30% in February
Avalanche bulls should brace themselves for impact led by a growing divergence between severalkey indicators on the daily-timeframe chart.
AVAX price chart paints bearish divergence
The daily AVAX chart shows a classic bearish divergence between its price and relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator forming since Jan. 11.
In other words, the price of AVAX has been making higher highs since the said date. But, on the other hand, the coin's daily RSI has been forming lower highs. This divergence suggest a slowdown in the momentum of the AVAX/USD pair, which may lead to a price reversal.
In addition, the declining volumes during the course of AVAX's ongoing uptrend also hints at the same bearish cues.
The price-RSI and price-volume divergences appear as AVAX price continues its 2023 uptrend . Notably, Avalanche has rallied by more than 100% year-to-date to $22.50 as of Feb. 2, helped by improving risk-on sentiments and news of its partnership with Amazon.
On Jan. 31, Avalanche partnered with Intain, a structured finance platform that facilitates more than $5.5B in assets across more than 25 deals to run its digital marketplace IntainMARKETS via IntainMARKETS Subnet.
The price of AVAX rallied nearly 20% after the announcement.
Avalanche price risks drop 30% in February
AVAX's price has successfully closed above two key resistance levels: a multi-month descending trendline (blacked) and its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) during the ongoing rally.
Avalanche now eyes a breakout above $22.75, which has been serving as resistance since August 2022, for a potential breakout to $30 as its next upside target. This level also coincides with the falling wedge breakout target discussed in this analysis.
In other words, an approximately 30% gain from the current price levels.
Conversely, a pullback from the resistance level, fueled by the bearish divergence indicators discussed above, could send AVAX price toward its 50-day EMA (the red wave) at approximately $15-$16, down about 30% from current prices.
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Bitcoin paints Nasdaq green as NCI index marks 38% gain in January
Bitcoin’s bullish surge in January has helped the Nasdaq Crypto Index to register its third-highest monthly gain, with a 38% surge. The cryptocurrency market started the year bullish, defying major bearish market outlooks. Bitcoin and a number of altcoins touched new multi-month highs as inflation cooled off.
The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) recorded its third-biggest monthly gain since its inception in February 2021. The crypto asset index was launched by Brazilian asset manager Hashdex in partnership with the United States stock exchange. The index consists of eight cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ether, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Chainlink, and Stellar, among a few others.
BTC has the highest weightage in the index, with 69.8%, followed by ETH (27.08%). The rest of the other altcoins have a weightage of less than 1%. Thus, the subsequent rise of BTC and ETH, which have surged over 35% in the past month, reflected on the index as well. The index weightage refers to the share of stocks invested in a particular digital asset.
With a prolonged crypto winter throughout 2022, Bitcoin ended the last year at around $16,500 and the majority of the altcoins also tested their yearly lows towards the end of the last year. Many market pundits had warned that the bearish sentiment might continue into the new year owing to the FTX saga folding out on a daily basis. However, the crypto market showed resilience and started the year on a bullish note and registering a market-wide double-digit gain for the past month.
Federal Open Market Committee press briefing announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that inflation had begun to cool off in the world’s largest economy. The Fed raise worked wonders for the crypto market, BTC price touched $24,000 briefly and the crypto market cap rose by 4%.
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Bitcoin Price and Ethereum Prediction; After 75% Drop From High, BTC Bears Exhausted
During the Asian session on December 23, Bitcoin price prediction remains neutral below $17,000, as the market appears to have low volatility and trading volume ahead of the Christmas holidays. Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cryptocurrency expert, recently stated that the bears are growing tired as Bitcoin's (BTC) price has plunged more than 75% from its all-time high above $69,000 observed last year.
On December 23, major cryptocurrencies traded mixed after the global crypto market cap remained practically steady at $810.53 billion over the previous day. Over the last 24 hours, the entire crypto market volume increased 12.46% to $28.94 billion.
The overall volume in DeFi was $1.63 billion, accounting for 5.64% of the total 24-hour volume in the crypto market. The overall volume of all stablecoins was $26.33 billion, accounting for 90.97% of the total 24-hour volume of the crypto market.
Similarly, Ethereum has also remained mostly unchanged at $1,220.
After a 75% Drop From the High, BTC Bears Exhausted
Benjamin Cowen, a well-known expert on cryptocurrencies, recently said that the bears are tired of Bitcoin's price falling over 75% from its all-time high of over $69,000 last year. Cowen's latest video, just released on a video-sharing site owned by Google, shows that the BTC bears have been losing ground as the price goes down. It looks at Bitcoin's supply and profit and loss ratio.
To paraphrase Cowen, "as we sink deeper and deeper into the bear market," as reported by the Daily Hodl, BTC bears are losing steam with each new leg down. The analyst elaborated, saying, "Finally, the bulls sort of neutralized the bears."
He predicted that once Bitcoin bulls start to take control of the market, a "long accumulation period" will begin, with the price of Bitcoin gradually rising in preparation for a new bullish cycle. Despite the unprecedented difficulties seen by the sector, he claims that the current bear market in BTC is eerily similar to those of the past.
Bitcoin Price
The current price of a bitcoin is $16,838, and the volume of trades in the last 24 hours is $16 billion. CoinMarketCap is ranked first with a live market cap of $323 billion.
If the BTC/USD pair breaks above $17,000, it will almost certainly continue to rise toward the $17,500 barrier level.
If Bitcoin prices go below $16,500, the next level of support is at $16,320.
The 50-day moving average continues to exert pressure on Bitcoin, although the RSI and MACD are both in a positive buying zone. Today's price of $17,000 is likely to be a watershed moment for Bitcoin, so keep an eye on it.
Ethereum Price
Ethereum's current price is $1,222, with a $5.5 billion 24-hour trading volume. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum has gained nearly 0.50%, and CoinMarketCap currently ranks second, with a live market cap of $149 billion.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum has been struggling below $1,220, and the closing doji and bearish engulfing candle imply a likely bearish reversal.
Short-term supports for Ethereum are between $1,180 and $1,150.
If the $1,180 support level is breached, the bearish trend might extend all the way to $1,150. If the price of Ethereum rises above $1,220, the bullish trend could continue until the price of Ethereum rises above $1,270.
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Dogecoin Price Prediction as Elon Musk Says He Will Resign as CEO When This One Thing Happens
Dogecoin's price experienced another sell-off this week after Elon Musk announced that he would resign as the CEO of Twitter as soon as he finds an appropriate replacement.
Musk has been leading the social media company since October and at the time of his announcement, Dogecoin's price rallied by over 178% and reached a high of $0.1596. DOGE is now trading at around $0.074 and here's where it's heading next.
Elon Musk to Leave Twitter as CEO
In recent years, Dogecoin's price has become more sensitive to Musk's tweets and comments. After announcing that he would be acquiring Twitter, Musk hinted that DOGE would be integrated into the platform, which was welcomed by the Dogecoin community. However, Twitter later announced that it was delaying the addition of cryptocurrency payments. Despite this, Dogecoin remains closely tied to Musk, who is a fan of the meme-based token.
Since taking over the top job at Twitter, Musk has been accused of neglecting his role at Tesla, the world’s leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, where he is also the CEO. Tesla’s stock has plunged recently, toppling Musk from being the world’s richest man.
The business mogul says that he intends to focus on leading the software and server teams once he has found a replacement for him as CEO.
Dogecoin Price Holds Firmly to Support as Recovery Looms
Dogecoin price is trading at $0.0741 after bears respected support at $0.0702. Analysts have predicted that the meme coin may drop to test a lower price level at $0.0573 if it confirms a break below $0.0702.
However, bullish momentum is gradually building, possibly bolstered by an incoming buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Traders may wish to enter their long positions after the MACD (line in blue) makes a clear divergence above the signal line (in red).
It is important for investors to exercise caution when considering investments in the current market, as conditions are still uncertain following the collapse of FTX. Additionally, there are concerns about rising inflation and the potential for another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which could affect the global economy.
Therefore, Dogecoin must make a clean break above all the major moving averages, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (in red) and currently holds at $0.0839, the 100-day EMA (in blue) as seen at $0.0874 and the 200-day EMA (in purple) at $0.884. Moving toward and above $0.10 will require DOGE to trade above two consecutive falling trend lines (dotted and continuous lines).
DOGE Whales Are Buying the Dip
As Dogecoin price struggles to find direction, large-volume holders appear to be digging into their pockets to fill their bags. On-chain data from Santiment shows addresses with 100,000 to 1,000,000 coins now hold 6% of the network’s total supply – the highest proportion in six months.
The increasing popularity of Dogecoin suggests that investors believe it has a long-term bullish outlook. If demand for DOGE continues to rise, it is possible that its price will start to gain momentum for a rally. This could potentially mean that Musk's departure from Twitter as CEO will not have as big an impact on the price as some may believe.
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Bitcoin low volume sparks BTC price warning as metric hits ‘value zone’
Bitcoin price action may be “unsustainably high,” as one metric hits its highest levels in seven months.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that on Dec. 21, Bitcoin’s network value to transaction (NVT) signal reached levels not seen since April.
Bitcoin activity may not support $17,000 BTC price
Created by statistician Willy Woo, NVT essentially measures the ratio between on-chain activity and the price of Bitcoin.
NVT signal modifies its readings by using a 90-day moving average of daily transaction volume instead of raw data, something Glassnode says “improves” NVT and allows it “to better function as a leading indicator.”
On Dec. 21, the NVT signal hit 18.58, a level that last appeared as Bitcoin declined in the final days of April. At the time, BTC/USD traded at just over $40,000.
Fast forward to year-end, and NVT is flashing a warning. Despite Bitcoin being worth less than 50% of its April levels, network volume has declined to such an extent that even the current $16,800 valuation might not last.
As Woo explained in a description of NVT ratio on his analytics site:
“When Bitcoin’s NVT is high, it indicates that its network valuation is outstripping the value being transmitted on its payment network, this can happen when the network is in high growth and investors are valuing it as a high return investment, or alternatively when the price is in an unsustainable bubble.”
A tale of two NVT signals
There is a catch to NVT, however. As noted by various analysts, including Woo, the constantly changing nature of the Bitcoin network means that transactions are increasingly moving off-chain.
Together with other phenomena, this impacts on-chain transaction data to the extent that NVT may produce an overly bearish picture of value-to-transactions.
This is addressed with an addition to the indicator called dynamic range NVT (DRNVT). Created by Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, DRNVT uses standard deviations to measure NVT divergence from the mean. It also supplies value zones for easier determination of entry points based on its readings.
Currently, DRNVT is in that value zone, data from TradingView shows — a key contrast to the standard model.
“The NVT Signal with a dynamic fair value range must be used with care,” Edwards nonetheless cautioned in an introduction to the indicator in 2019:
“As with all markets, an asset can remain ‘expensive’ or ‘cheap’ for extended periods or time and continue to get even more expensive or cheaper.”
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Bitcoin price fails to retake $17K with market ‘not prepared’ for dip
Bitcoin divided traders yet again on Dec. 21 as sideways BTC price action split opinion on the future.
$17,500 becomes popular BTC price targe
Data followed BTC/USD as it acted within a tight range just below $17,000.
A single brief spike above the $17,000 mark failed to last, the pair returning to familiar territory from the past week.
For popular traders, there was a lack of consensus, with some calling for an eventual breakout to the upside and others demanding a rapid fall toward $10,000.
“I’d want it to hold $16.7K in order to see continuation on Bitcoin,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, told Twitter followers on Dec. 20:
“For now, it’s fine. Some sideways consolidation, before breaking $17K for further continuation to $17.5-17.7K.”
Fellow trader and analyst Elizy agreed on the potential for a rethink once $17,500 hit, while Crypto Tony also eyed that zone as a line in the sand.
“Holding that EQ would still present a good opportunity for us to pump to the supply zoned around $17,300 - $17,600. My stop loss on my short is if we close above $17,600,” he commented alongside a chart on the day.
Trading resource Game of Trades, meanwhile, eyed the potential for the S&P 500 to punish bears next.
“Short squeeze setup in the works for the market,” it predicted alongside a put/ call ratio chart for the index:
“A big move up and it's game over for all these puts.”
Far from bullish, on the other hand, Il Capo of Crypto warned that a downside move would take market participants by surprise.
“Most people are not prepared for what is coming and it shows,” he tweeted, echoing a tone in place for much of the year.
Il Capo of Crypto additionally noted that “some altcoins leading the drop already, breaking key supports and most of them making new lows.”
“So calm being out of the market,” he added:
U.S. dollar stable after Japan shake-up
After surprise events involving the Bank of Japan (BoJ) the day prior, the U.S. dollar began to consolidate after seeing a fresh drop.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), ostensibly still inversely correlated to crypto markets, focused on the 104 mark at the time of writing.
“DXY lower due to other currencies becoming relatively stronger on hawkish policy —> stocks + crypto down/sideways,” commentator Tedtalksmacro summarized in part of a Twitter reaction to the BoJ.
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3 reasons why BNB price risks another 30% decline by January
BNB, the native token of the Binance crypto exchange, is under threat of undergoing a significant price correction in the coming weeks, based on a mix of technical and fundamental indicators.
BNB triangle breakdown continues
From a technical perspective, BNB has entered the breakdown stage of its multi-month ascending triangle pattern, a trend continuation indicator. The breakdown could last until the price reaches the level that comes to be at the length equal to the triangle's maximum height.
In other words, BNB's ascending triangle breakdown target is near $170, down about 30% from the current price levels, as shown below. The BNB/USD pair could drop to the said level by January 2023.
For now, BNB's breakdown move appears to be halting near $222, which has served as a strong support level in recent history, including the declines witnessed in the aftermath of the Terra (LUNA) collapse in May 2022.
BNB could retest the $222 as support, based on a rising wedge technical setup forming on the four-hour chart, as shown below.
BNB shorts gain momentum
The bearish technical setup for BNB gets further cues from an increasing number of short positions.
Notably, the BNB's price decline witnessed in recent days has coincided with a rise in its open interest (OI), which reached over $415 millio on Dec. 18, its highest level since November 2021. A rising OI and falling price suggest that traders have been opening new short positions in the BNB market.
Wick, an options trader-cum-analyst, said BNB could be in "big trouble" if Bitcoin falls more. The daily correlation coefficient between BNB and BTC has been mostly positive throughout their history.
"First target is $197," he tweeted.
Binance insolvency fears drive exchange withdrawals
From a fundamental perspective, BNB looks weaker due to its parent platform Binance's mounting legal issues. Binance could face potential criminal charges concerning money laundering and sanctions violations.
In addition, the FTX debacle also created skepticism among investors toward Binance. Many speculate that, like FTX, Binance may have used BNB as collateral for loans. While Binance has denied such rumors, its clarification has done little to help BNB snap its downtrend.
Moreover, the growing uncertainty prompted customers to withdraw $3.6 billion worth of cryptocurrencies in a week, according to data revealed by Nansen on Dec. 13. Later, the exchange halted withdrawals of USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin backed by its rivals Circle and Coinbase, which exacerbated rumors that it might become insolvent.
On Dec. 14, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao downplayed insolvency risks by noting that the exchange had experienced bigger withdrawals during the Terra and FTX crashes, adding that their ability to meet the withdrawal requests points toward healthy "stress tests."
"Now deposits are coming back in," Zhao said.
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BTC price faces 20% drop in weeks if Bitcoin avoids key level — Analyst
Bitcoin stayed rigid below $17,000 at the Dec. 19 Wall Street open as skeptical traders feared more downside.
BTC traders call time on upside potential
Data showed BTC/USD lingering around the $16,700 mark, practically unmoved over the weekend.
The pair saw only fractional volatility at the open, as United States equities fell slightly. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down 0.5% and 1%, respectively.
For Bitcoin traders, there was little to celebrate, with consensus forming around the potential for testing lower levels next.
“Bearish as long as it stays below the $19k,” Crypto Poseidon summarized alongside a chart.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted $17,150 as an important level to reclaim to avoid further downside later on.
“If BTC continues to reject from the ~$17150 resistance... Then price could drop up to -20% to the downside in the coming weeks,” he predicted, uploading the one-month BTC/USD chart.
Rekt Capital added that there was “still time for BTC to perform a Monthly Close above the ~$17150 level later this month” but that “a Monthly Close below ~$17150 would confirm the beginnings of a breakdown from here.”
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, meanwhile, offered a slightly more hopeful outlook.
With more U.S. economic data expected toward the end of the week, BTC/USD had the potential to break to the upside and target $17,300 to then offer “short opportunities.”
“No breakthrough, then looking for longs around $16.2K or $15.5K,” he countered.
Grayscale CEO: FTX was a “failure of people”
News that Binance.US, the U.S. offshoot of crypto exchange Binance, had offered to acquire the assets of stricken lender Voyager, but it had no tangible impact on market performance.
The latest development in the FTX saga, the announcement came as Binance itself continued to deal with what its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, again called “FUD” over the weekend.
In a letter to investors, meanwhile, Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of investment firm Grayscale, sought to draw a clear distinction between FTX and crypto as a whole. Grayscale’s parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG), had previously also become caught up in the FTX aftermath.
“FTX Was a Failure of People, Not a Failure of Crypto: Too many investors were harmed. From crypto to traditional finance, mainstream media, and D.C. – it seems few were spared from deception through false narratives and false documentation,” he wrote.
“We should not, however, conflate the actions of a few individuals and organizations with Bitcoin or Ethereum, the underlying blockchain technology, or smart contracts and decentralized finance applications.”
Grayscale’s flagship product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), traded at a 48.7% discount to the Bitcoin spot price as of Dec. 17 — its steepest discount ever, according to data from Coinglass.
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