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Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Calls XRP Army ‘Toxic’ and ‘Petty’ – Here’s What Happened
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has called the XRP community "toxic and petty" while lashing out at the project and arguing that it "provides no partnership or technical value."
Hoskinson, who has been the target of hostile attacks from the XRP community, said in a December 16 video that he plans to no longer talk about Ripple and its native token XRP.
The Cardano founder claimed that the attacks have emerged from his stand on the ongoing Ripple and Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) case.
He had previously predicted that the lawsuit would end by December 15, citing people familiar with the matter. However, after the case was not concluded on the said date, some from the XRP community accused him of being a liar. He said:
“I was accused of lying, and I was accused of yet again creating a flood and trolling. I don’t know how to interact with the XRP community, I think my statements have been historically very measured and supportive."
Hoskinson claimed that he is actually on the side of Ripple and supports the XRP army, but it has become increasingly challenging to engage with the community. Therefore, he said he would simply say "no comment" going forward regarding anything related to Ripple.
“So, moving forward, I’m not going to answer any questions at all about XRP in any circumstances. I’m not going to mention the project; I’m not going to talk at all about anything going on after there is a resolution of the XRP case. I’m not even going to discuss that if asked in the future; I’m just going to simply say no comment.”
In response, Twitter user @3TGMCrypto compared Hoskinson's speech to his statements that he would never participate in an event where Bitcoin developers are also invited because some Bitcoin bulls insulted him on Twitter for arguing that Bitcoin is too slow and has a significant competitive disadvantage compared to Ethereum.
"There is no point inviting toxicity into your life," the Cardano founder replied, adding that the XRP community is "toxic and petty" but the project provides no partnership or technical value.
Meanwhile, Ripple’s two years legal battle with the SEC might be coming to an end as several rumors point to a potential settlement.
Earlier this month, Stuart Alderoty, Ripple’s general counsel, said in a tweet that the firm’s response was its final submission. He said the firm asked the Court to grant judgment in its favor in the filing. Alderoty said the crypto company was proud of the defense it mounted on behalf of the crypto industry.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Stabilizes at $16,500 – Time to Buy?
Bitcoin price prediction for December 17 is likely to reverse as BTC stabilizes above the $16,500 support zone. Major cryptocurrencies were trading in the negative early during the Asian session, with the global crypto market worth falling 6.11% to $797.45 billion on the previous day.
Over the last 24 hours, the overall crypto market volume has increased by 38.50% to $47.36 billion. DeFi's total volume is currently $2.67 billion, accounting for 5.63% of the overall crypto market 24-hour volume.
The overall volume of all stablecoins is now $43.54 billion, accounting for 91.92% of the total 24-hour volume of the crypto market.
Japanese Government Reduces 30% Crypto Tax: Good Move?
Regardless of whether or not they generated a profit in 2018, Japanese crypto companies must pay a flat corporate tax rate of 30% on their assets. Some local crypto enterprises apparently decided to relocate their operations as a result of the increasingly onerous tax rules over the previous few years.
The LDP has made correcting this situation a top priority because of the damage it has done to the country's economic progress. The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) works with the United States on defense and international policy and prioritizes administrative reform.
In various contexts across the country, the term "administrative reform" might mean different things. Such ideas include implementing reforms like taxation to withstand the test of time and economic stress.
The Japanese governing party (LDP) tax committee met on December 15 to discuss ways to speed up economic growth. Agenda items included a discussion of potential tax code changes.
At the same time, they passed a proposal that had been introduced back in August. The plan aims to eliminate paper gains taxes on token issuance or custody by crypto businesses. The Japanese government wants to encourage the development of the IT and financial industries by reducing the tax burden on local crypto companies.
The more forgiving crypto tax legislation will begin being introduced to parliament in January, with implementation in the next fiscal year starting in April.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin's current price is $16,742, and the 24-hour trading volume is $26 billion. Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 4% since yesterday. On Friday, the BTC/USD pair gained support at $17,250, which was extended by the 50-day moving average. Increased negative pressure, on the other hand, produced a bearish crossover below $17,200, causing the BTC/USD pair to plummet toward $16,570.
Traders typically employ technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to assess an asset's price movement and forecast future trends. These indicators are currently indicating a bearish trend for Bitcoin, however, these have entered the oversold zone, implying we may see a slight bullish correction in Bitcoin.
This is further supported by the fact that the BTC/USD has closed Doji candles above the $16,550 level, indicating that a bullish correction to $17,000 and even higher to $17,250 is possible.
A bearish breakout below the $16,555 support level, on the other hand, could extend the selling trend to $16,200 or $16,000.
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Dogecoin Price Prediction – Can DOGE Reach $1 in 2023?
The Dogecoin price has fallen by 6% in the past 24 hours, falling to $0.082213 as the cryptocurrency market continues to reel from the latest Fed hike and the ongoing effects of the FTX collapse. Its latest movements also mean that it's down by 16% in the past week and by 20% in the past fortnight, with its community's hope for some kind of Twitter integration remaining unrealized.
However, assuming that Twitter does eventually introduce Dogecoin-based payments or tipping of some kind in the near future, then DOGE will rally significantly. But if the social network doesn't, it's arguable that the altcoin's fundamentals alone will be enough to lift it substantially from its current level.
Dogecoin Price Prediction – Can DOGE Reach $1 in 2023?
Looking at Dogecoin's chart, it seems as though it's currently going through a bearish reversal as recent gains make way for a slide into losses. Its relative strength index (purple) has fallen from 60 at the start of December to under 40 today and it looks as though it will continue falling in the near term.
At the same time, DOGE's 30-day moving average (red) has plateaued after recent rises and it looks like it will begin falling toward its 200-day average (blue). If it sinks below the longer-term average, this could signal a bigger selloff.
Looking at the Dogecoin community, it remains hopeful as far as DOGE's price is concerned, with some holding out for $1 (or even higher) in the not-too-distant future.
Such expectations seem to be based almost entirely on the assumption that Twitter, with the dogecoin-supporting Elon Musk at its helm, will sooner or later integrate DOGE tipping.
Aside from Musk's well-documented holding of DOGE and hints (from April) regarding DOGE-based payments, there's no real evidence that Twitter is actually planning to use dogecoin at any point in the future. As such, hopes of DOGE reaching $1 or higher arguably remain wishful thinking at this juncture.
This is largely because Dogecoin has nothing else on its horizon other than a hypothetical move by Twitter to adopt the coin. It's barely witnessing any other adoption, while its relative lack of development means it has little chance of becoming more attractive to prospective users and adopters.
Nonetheless, a positive start to 2023 for the cryptocurrency market could see DOGE post more modest rises. That the market could move in a more positive direction has been underscored by the fact that inflation is easing in various parts of the globe, something which points to a gradual improvement in macroeconomic conditions.
Given improved economic conditions and market sentiment, it's conceivable that DOGE could return to levels it witnessed earlier in 2022, such as $0.14 or higher.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Spikes Above $18,000 For The First Time in 30 Days and Falls Back Down – Time to Buy the Dip?
In our Asian session Bitcoin price prediction, we predicted that the price of Bitcoin would fall to $17,440, which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, before rebounding.
This prediction is based on the fact that Bitcoin is currently trading near $17,500 and that closing candles above this level could lead to a bullish bounce. We believe that the recent aggressive decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates may be contributing to the bearish overall trend in Bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again on Wednesday by 50 basis points, soothing fears of a large rate hike that some expected.
It remains to be seen whether a recession will occur, but Tuesday's inflation data, and Wednesday's smaller rate hike is being seen by some as an indication that inflation is waning.
ECB follows the Fed and raises rates to 2.50%
In addition to Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to raise its main rate by half a percentage point, from 1.5% to 2%, at its meeting on Thursday.
Also, starting in March 2023, the ECB plans to lower its balance sheet by an average of €15 billion ($16 billion) every month through the end of the second quarter of 2023.
Cryptocurrency markets remain gloomy due to the FOMC's hawkish stance, but some positive developments could boost prices.
Hong Kong Exchange Launches Bitcoin and Ether Futures ETFs Tomorrow
This coming Friday (December 16), the Hong Kong stock market will reportedly welcome the debut of two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track Bitcoin futures contracts listed in the United States. These products will be Asia's first exchange-traded fund (ETF) to hold Bitcoin and Ether as underlying assets.
One report from Reuters states that the ETFs will mirror the performance of futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin's current price is $17,474, and the 24-hour trading volume is $25 billion. The BTC price has plunged over 3% since yesterday. Bitcoin is trading negatively, despite having broken past a crucial resistance level of roughly $18,150. However, Bitcoin plummeted below the $18,000 level following the announcement of the Fed and ECB rate hikes. This suggests that the selling trend may continue.
Leading technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), are currently positive, signaling that the price of Bitcoin may rise after completing the Fibonacci retracement at $17,440.
Bitcoin's next big resistance level is at $18,125; a break over this level might lead to additional gains toward $18,600.
On the downside, the price of Bitcoin may find support at $17,440. This level has previously functioned as a barrier, and it is likely to keep BTC's bullish trend intact.
On the other hand, a bearish crossover below this area might result in a decline in BTC price below $16,850.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as US Fed Interest Rate Decision is Announced – Can BTC Pump Up 50% This Week?
Following the release of the Fed rate hike decision, which is strengthening the US dollar and eventually causing a drop in BTC price, Bitcoin price prediction has turned bearish. Bitcoin price reached a high of $18,400 before a negative reaction. Now, BTC is trading close to a crucial support level, with a possible rebound if prices go over $17,550.
The global crypto market cap declined 1.42% to $857.98 billion on the previous day, as major cryptocurrencies plummeted early on December 15. The entire cryptocurrency market volume over the last 24 hours is $45.67 billion, a 14.40% decline.
DeFi's total volume is currently $2.94 billion, accounting for 5.49% of the entire 24-hour volume in the crypto market. The overall volume of all stablecoins is now $53.26 billion, accounting for 99.53% of the total 24-hour volume of the crypto market.
US Fed Interest Rate Decision is Announced
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Board voted to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, a lesser increase than in recent months. After an extraordinary year that included seven consecutive rate hikes as part of an aggressive push to try to bring down the highest inflation since the early 1980s, the central bank has decided to shift gears and raise rates.
The rate hike approved by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday was smaller than the four consecutive three-quarter point hikes approved at previous Fed meetings, but it was still twice as large as the central bank's customary quarter-point increase, and it will likely worsen the financial damage for millions of American businesses and households by increasing the cost of borrowing.
Fed officials have decided to raise the rate that banks charge each other for overnight lending to a range of 4.25-4.5%, the highest rate since 2007.
The Federal Reserve also released its long-awaited Summary of Economic Projections, also known as the dot plot. These projections reveal where each of its 19 leaders expects interest rates to go in the future, and investors pay close attention to them for signals about the trajectory of rate hikes in the coming year and beyond.
The median "dot" for federal fund rates in December predictions rose to a new height of 5-5.25% from 4.5-4.75% in September, indicating a more aggressive tightening path for monetary policy. That would imply that the Federal Reserve Board now plans to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, up from the previous projection made three months ago.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin's current price is $17,725, and the 24-hour trading volume is $26 billion. The BTC price has plunged nearly 0.20% since yesterday.
Despite having broken through a critical resistance level of around $18,150, Bitcoin is currently trading bearish. However, following the announcement of the Fed rate hike, Bitcoin fell below the $18,000 mark. This indicates that the selling trend could continue.
Leading technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), are currently positive, implying that Bitcoin's price may rise after completing the Fibonacci retracement at $17,440.
The next major resistance level for Bitcoin is around $18,125, and a break above this level could lead to further gains and a price of $18,600.
On the downside, the level of $17,440 may serve as support for the price of BTC. This level has previously served as a barrier, and it is likely to maintain BTC's bullish trend. A bearish crossover below this level, on the other hand, could lead to a drop in the price of BTC to the $16,850 level.
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Bitcoin bear market 70% dip kills BTC ‘tourists’ as metric screams buy
Bitcoin speculators have disappeared from the market and their mood “destroyed,” says popular analyst Philip Swift.
In a tweet on Dec. 14, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader flagged potential maximum risk returns for BTC at current prices.
Swift: “Euphoria destroyed” from Bitcoin bear market
BTC/USD is around 70% below its last all-time highs, and the drawdown has flushed out many short-term investors.
The FTX scandal precipitated an even stronger capitulation, one which is ongoing as its after-effects see nervous investors panic.
For Swift, signs that speculator “euphoria” is now gone from Bitcoin come in the form of the popular HODL Waves metric.
HODL Waves group transacted coins by age — how long they were last dormant for until they left their wallet. The resulting data shows to what extent long-term or short-term holders are transacting.
A further iteration of the metric, Realized Cap HODL (RHODL) Waves, additionally weights these bands by realized price — the price at which each bitcoin last moved.
“So RHODL waves are telling us the cost basis of bitcoins that have been held in wallets for different periods of time. Each time period is shown by the waves on the chart,” Swift explains in a description on his dedicated on-chain data resource, LookIntoBitcoin.
Currently, RHODL shows a distinct minority of coins moving on the network soon after they were used in a previous transaction. On the contrary, transactions currently involve coins that last moved 6-12 months ago as the most common age band.
On an accompanying chart, the darker the color of the wave, the more recently the coins involved last moved.
“Euphoria from bitcoin tourists has now been completely destroyed,” Swift commented.
He added that under such circumstances, the risk-reward (R:R) ratio for investing is at its most attractive, based on historical trends from RHODL Waves.
“Realized Cap HODL Waves warmer colors spiking show periods when participants are euphoric,” he wrote:
“We are now at cycle lows...aka max r:r opportunity.”
From capitulation to accumulation
Swift is not alone in eyeing potential bullish signals from Bitcoin as 2022 draws to a close.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the ongoing trend from “capitulation” to “accumulation” by BTC investors.
It did so via the UTXO Realized Price Density metric, a similar tool to RHODL Waves, which offers an insight into seller intensity based on coin age.
“After each market leg down in 2022, we can see the density of coin re-distribution (and thus re-accumulation) has increased,” it wrote, noting that the drop from $24,000 saw $18,000 saw especially strong reaccumulation.
An accompanying chart showed those investors who bought the macro top of each BTC price run, notably in late 2017 and through April 2021.
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Why is Bitcoin price up today?
Bitcoin price is up on Dec. 13, and a market-wide rally in crypto prices has some investors hopeful that the intra-day high at $18,105 is a sign that BTC has bottomed.
A primary catalyst for the rally appears to be the Consumer Price Index report which showed energy decreasing by 1.6%, which should be welcomed news for struggling Bitcoin miners. With the overall CPI report showing easing inflation at 7.1% versus the previously expected 7.3%, equities traders are reacting by driving prices higher.
The stock market is also flashing green, with the Dow showing a 600-point increase and the S&P 500 registering a 100-point gain. As reported, Bitcoin’s price action remains closely correlated to U.S. equities and today’s rally is no exception to the trend.
Bitcoin open interest remains tilted toward short traders
Since Bitcoin price crashed under $16,000 on Nov. 22, the open interest on BTC futures contracts has been surging. Sharp price moves in Bitcoin price could trigger another liquidation event, but it is difficult to determine whether the move would be to the upside or downside.
If inflation has peaked, there is the possibility of the Federal Reserve pivoting from increasing interest rates. Many traders agree that if the Federal Reserve were to pivot on its current policy of quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes, BTC price could surge to the upside and liquidate a significant portion of the short interest in futures contracts.
The FTX implosion was followed by a wave of liquidations which sent Bitcoin price toward a yearly low at $15,476. Historical data shows that $549 million in cross-crypto longs were liquidated on Nov. 7, sending the Bitcoin price below $16,000.
Inversely, short liquidations directly help push Bitcoin price higher by forcing automated buy pressure. On Dec. 12, $93 million in shorts were liquidated which may help boost Bitcoin price.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins meeting on Dec. 13 with a decision on interest rates expected the following day. The positive CPI results will impact the FOMC decision and could put major pressure on open shorts.
Longer-term data is in Bitcoin’s favor, according to market analysts
Investors’ confidence in the crypto market could also be rising due to their belief that the United States Federal Reserve could roll out smaller-sized interest rate hikes in the next two months and throughout 2023 due to positive CPI numbers.
In the Fed’s statement, the possibility of a policy shift remains open and tied to inflation:
“In order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
According to MacroMicro, a firm that publishes investors’ consensus estimates on expected changes in interest rates, shows that interest rates may be lower than previously anticipated in the near future.
The graph points to a possible slowdown in the interest rate hikes. The public sentiment shows that future rates may fall and investors believe that this has created the possibility for a broad crypto market recovery.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq provide a general overview for the economy in general. Currently, Bitcoin, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 share a high correlation coefficient.
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Breaking: FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrested, set to be extradited to US
Sam Bankman-Fried has been arrested by authorities in the Bahamas at the request of the U.S. government, just a day before the disgraced former FTX CEO was due to testify before Congress.
Bankman-Fried was arrested by the Royal Bahamas Police Force following a formal notification from the United States government that it has filed criminal charges against him, according to a Dec. 12 statement from the Bahamas Attorney General (AG) and Minister of Legal Affairs, Ryan Pinder.
Citing a person with knowledge of the matter, The New York Times reported on Dec. 12 that the charges against Bankman-Fried include wire and securities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud and money laundering,
The U.S. will likely request the extradition of Bankman-Fried, with Pinder stating that the Bahamas will “promptly” process any extradition request.
Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis said in a statement that both countries have "a shared interest in holding accountable all individuals associated with FTX who may have betrayed the public trust and broken the law.
A Dec. 12 tweet from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York said authorities in the Bahamas arrested Bankman-Fried based on a sealed indictment it filed that it plans to unseal “in the morning.”
Bloomberg reported on Dec. 10 that prosecutors from New York, FBI agents and regulators met with FTX’s lawyers to discuss the documentation that investigators want to obtain.
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) was "closely" examining whether FTX improperly transferred hundreds of millions around the same time as the company declared bankruptcy on Nov. 11.
Bahamian authorities were similarly undertaking their own “active and ongoing” investigation into FTX as announced on Nov. 27 by Pinder that involved the country’s Securities Commission, the Financial Intelligence Unit and the police’s financial crimes unit.
Bankman-Fried’s arrest comes a day before he was expected to appear remotely to testify before the House Committee on Financial Services in a hearing investigating the collapse of the exchange.
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Bitcoin traders cross fingers in hopes that a positive Fed meeting triggers a run to $18K
Bitcoin failed to break above the $17,250 resistance on Dec. 11 and subsequently faced a 2.2% correction. More importantly, the last daily close above this level was over 30 days ago — reinforcing the thesis of size sellers near the $330 billion market capitalization mark.
Curiously, this valuation level is slightly behind Palladium, the world's 23rd most valuable traded asset with a $342 billion capitalization. So from one side, Bitcoin bulls have some reasons to celebrate because the price recovered 10% from the $15,500 low on Nov. 21, but bears still have the upper hand on a larger time frame since BTC is down 64% year-to-date.
Two events are expected to determine traditional finance investors' fate, as the United States consumer price index is expected onDec. 13 and U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will announce the size of the next interest rate hike on Dec. 14. Powell’s press conference will also be anxiously awaited by investors.
In the cryptocurrency markets, there is mild relief stemming from exchanges' proof of reserves, although several analysts have criticized the limited details of each report.
Derivatives exchange Bybit was the latest addition to the transparency initiative, allowing users to self-verify their deposits using Merkle Trees, according to a Dec. 12 announcement.
However, regulatory risks remain high after U.S. Democrat Senator and crypto-skeptic Jon Tester boldly stated that he sees "no reason why" crypto should exist. During a Dec. 11 appearance on NBC, Tester argued that crypto has no real value, so regulating the sector would give it legitimacy.
Lastly, according to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is nearing the completion of its investigation into Binanceexchange, which started in 2018. The Dec. 12 report suggests a conflict among prosecutors on whether the evidence is enough to pursue criminal charges.
Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.
The Asia-based stablecoin premium drops to 2-month low
The USD Coin premium is a good gauge of China-based crypto retail trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the United States dollar.
Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100% and during bearish markets the stablecoin's market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.
Currently, the USDC premium stands at 99%, down from 102.5% on Dec. 3, indicating lesser demand for stablecoin buying from Asian investors. The data gains relevance after the multiple failed attempts to break above the $17,250 resistance.
However, this data should not necessarily be bearish because the stablecoin position could have been converted for fiat (cashed out) solely due to counterparty risks — meaning investors withdrew from exchanges.
Leverage buyers ignored the failed resistance break
The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the stablecoin market. It also gathers data from exchange clients' positions on the spot, perpetual, and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.
There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.
Even though Bitcoin failed to break the $17,250 resistance, professional traders have kept their leverage long positions unchanged according to the long-to-short indicator.
For instance, the ratio for Binance traders slightly declined from 1.08 on Dec. 5 to the current 1.05 level. Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a modest decrease in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator moving from 1.04 to 1.02 in the seven days until Dec. 12.
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Ethereum Price Prediction – Can ETH Reach $3,000 by 2023?
The Ethereum price has fallen by 2% in the past 24 hours, dropping to $1,249 amid a similar fall for the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Its current price represents a 2.5% decline in a week and a 3.5% decrease in the last 30 days, as wider macroeconomic pressures and continued negative sentiment continue to squeeze prices downwards.
On the positive side, it's arguable that the ongoing falls have only put ETH on sale at an even bigger discount than it already was, with the biggest altcoin in the market remaining decidedly oversold. And given that Ethereum continues to expand and evolve as a layer-one blockchain, ETH is due for a big surge once the market returns to more bullish conditions.
Ethereum Price Prediction – Can ETH Reach $3,000 by 2023?
ETH chart shows that, from a purely technical perspective, it's due a rally. Its relative strength index (purple) dropped just below 30 in early November and has steadily begun rising upwards again, although it has stalled around 50 in the past few days.
At the same time, ETH's 30-day moving average (red) has stood below its 200-day average (blue) for the entire year, meaning it really is about time that there was a swing towards more positive price action.
Of course, the wider market remains in a mostly subdued and negative state, with its total cap down by 21% since November 5, around the time the FTX crisis (and subsequent collapse) began.
And things aren't likely to improve drastically in the short term, with the Federal Reserve expected to introduce yet another interest rate hike on Wednesday. However, US inflation data is also expected tomorrow, and there's a hope it will show that the rate of inflation has begun to slow.
This doesn't mean it will return to a normal level, but it may at least signal the slow turning of the tide, preparing the ground for more substantial improvements next year.
Assuming such improvements, ETH is in a better position than most cryptocurrencies to benefit from returning optimism. Not only did September's Merge put it on the path to becoming more scalable and efficient, but it has also (along with other upgrades) put it on the path to becoming deflationary.
Ethereum is already the biggest layer-one blockchain in terms of total value locked in, accounting for around 57.5% of the entire DeFi sector. And now, with it becoming a proof-of-stake chain, it's potentially on the road towards increasing its dominance even further.
Also, data reveals that whales have begun accumulating Ethereum again, possibly because they believe it has hit bottom and can only rise again from this point forwards.
This suggests that now is probably the best time there's been in a while to buy ETH. At $1,250, simply returning to its current all-time high (of $4,878) would imply an increase of 290%.
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Bitcoin bulls protect $17K as trader eyes key China BTC price catalyst
Bitcoin maintained $17,000 support into Dec. 10 ahead of a critical week of macro data.
CPI print will make Fed "slow down"
Data followed BTC/USD as it traded sideways after the close of trading on Wall Street.
The pair looked set for a quiet weekend, with all eyes focused on United States inflation readings and policy updates due from Dec. 13 onward.
With the Producer Price Index (PPI) November print behind it, the month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) results took center stage.
As reported, expectations remain that CPI will show U.S. inflation continuing to abate, sparking renewed strength in risk assets, including crypto.
“My personal expectations are that we'll be seeing CPI come in at 7.0-7.2%, Core CPI at 5.9-6.1% and that we'll have a big impact on the markets again,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in a Twitter thread on the topic.
Van de Poppe added that the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Dec. 15 should respond in kind should that outcome result.
“FOMC to pause and slow down after this event,” he predicted.
Macro economist and stocks analyst James Choi meanwhile produced a list of stock market catalysts as the week closed, these including emerging markets and “never ending suppression” in the VIX volatility index.
“USA Peak inflation, Weaker $USD, China reopening are making some great investing opportunities. Chinese Real estate ETF $CHIR up staggering 80% since November. Unbelievable,” he added.
China gets Bitcoin bulls excited
Continuing on China, crypto analyst and trader TechDev outlined a potential leading indicator for Bitcoin strength in the form of the Chinese ten-year bond yield versus the U.S. dollar index (DXY).
Now heading higher, if history repeats itself, BTC/USD could benefit in kind, he said in one of several Twitter posts this week.
“Few signals have correlated with Bitcoin's macro inflections as tightly as China's 10-year yield,” further commentary read.
“Local tops at major $BTC impulse tops. Local CN10Y downtrend breaking with 3W RSI exceeding 50... Began each of Bitcoin's last 3 largest moves.”
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BTC price tests $17K on PPI as Bitcoin analysts eye CPI, FOMC catalysts
Bitcoin fell on the Dec. 9 Wall Street open as United States economic data appeared to disappoint markets.
Attention turns to Bitcoin vs. CPI "big trigger"
Data showed BTC/USD dipping to come closer to $17,000 after passing the level overnight.
The pair reacted badly to U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which despite being above expectations still beat the readout from the month prior.
“Bit of an over reaction towards PPI, which has been dropping significantly from last month, but less than expected,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, responded.
Van de Poppe, like others, noted that the crux of macro cues would come next week in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for November.
“CPI next week is the big trigger, just like it was earlier this month,” he added.
CPI could be a seminal point, trading firm QCP Capital continued, as if it were to continue its downward trend, markets may get an even stronger conviction over lower inflation greeting the new year.
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting days later, where policymakers decide on interest rate hikes, should add fuel to the fire.
“Tuesday’s CPI will yet again be ‘the most important CPI release ever’, this time because the market has set it up to be with its epic 2-month short squeeze rally,” QCP wrote in a market update on the day.
“At the FOMC, Fed members will release their updated projections of inflation and interest rates. Markets will focus on where they forecast inflation next year, as well as where they see rates in 2023 and 2024. Both these events are the last remaining hurdles for the rally into year-end.”
Analysts acknowledged that if CPI were to disappoint, it would potentially “invalidate” the stocks rally so far. A 50-basis-point rate hike had a 77% probability of occurring, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
U.S. equities were flat after the first hour's trading, with PPI failing to make a significant dent in performance.
For macro economist and stocks analyst James Choi, this was to be expected, given that the Fed was already considering decreasing the pace of its rate hikes.
"The FED already pivoted its course. Today's PPI won't make a dent to Powell's plan. It's 50bp next week, then that's it," he forecast, also saying that his calculations predicted a "much, much lower" CPI reading than many believed.
Meanwhile, U.S. dollar strength also simmered, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) attempting to make up for the previous day's lost ground on the back of PPI.
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Bitcoin price targets stretch to $19K as BTC jumps 4% from daily lows
Bitcoin stayed higher after a $17,000 liquidity grab on Dec. 9 as traders targeted further upside.
Bitcoin attempts new monthly high
Data showed BTC/USD cooling volatility once more after hitting $17,300 on Bitstamp.
The pair had begun by taking liquidity at the Dec. 8 Wall Street open, this snowballing to see it challenge one-month highs from Dec. 5.
For those already betting on upward continuation, the move came as little surprise, with the coast still clear to add to the gains.
“The move to 18-19k $BTC continues,” popular trader Credible Crypto summarized.
A previous tweet from Dec. 7 explained the rationale, with invalidation set at $16,000 support.
“Lows cleaned up and as if on cue Binance apes showing up to support the mid 16k’s,” part of accompanying comments read:
“Maybe one more push into 16.4-16.5k and then expecting a reversal back up and continuation to 18-19k targets.”
Fellow trader Cheds, meanwhile, eyed potential continuation of volatility, with BTC/USD tagging its upper Bollinger Band on 4-hour timeframes.
At the time of writing, 4-hour candles remained near the upper band, with both still expanding in a classic prelude to increased volatility.
“Expecting continuation for Bitcoin as long as we stay above $17K,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, added, likening the overnight move to the breakout from the end of November.
Liquidations fuel BTC price run-up
Further analysis of overnight BTC price action highlighted increased liquidations of short positions.
In a sign of the extent to which market participants assumed further downside would enter, short liquidations on BTC totaled $7 million in a single hour on Dec. 8, data from Coinglass shows. Altcoin short liquidations added another $11 million to the tally.
“Liquidations have been relatively small since the early November crash but short liquidations helped fuel that recent move,” analytics resource On-Chain College confirmed.
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Bitcoin takes liquidity near $17K as US dollar shows weakness pre-CPI
Bitcoin ranged below $17,000 at the Dec. 8 Wall Street open as the U.S. dollar threatened further weakness.
Dollar dips as stocks see modest upt
Data showed BTC/USD practically flat over the 24 hours to the time of writing.
With macro cues lacking, analysts eyed a potential breakdown in U.S. dollar strength as the next volatility catalyst for crypto and risk assets.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) looked set to challenge multi-day support, wicking below 105 multiple times on the day.
“$DXY’s first time under the 100 day MA since June of ‘21,” Joe Cariasare, co-host of the Inside Bitcoin podcast, noted.
Trader and analyst Pierre added that both DXY and the S&P 500 could nonetheless trade sideways until the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for November comes in on Dec. 13.
“In the meantime, both SPX and DXY still hovering around their respective D1 200 EMA,” chart comments read.
“DXY flipping it resistance so far, while SPX sitting at D1 uptrend, important level to defend. Both looking like all they want is more and more chop until next week CPI.”
On BTC/USD, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades expected the trading range to expand a absorb liquidity both above and below spot.
“$BTC In a very tight range here with tons of untapped highs and lows,” he told Twitter followers.
“I think all these levels will get taken out and that the initial move will likely become a fakeout only to retrace and take the other side. Would definitely be a classic Bitcoin move.”
"Final phase" of the Bitcoin bear market?
Further modest tailwinds came from U.S. stocks during the first hour's trading on Wall Street.
The S&P 500 was up 1% at the time of writing, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was 1.2% higher. The move went some way to copying a day of relief in Asia, where trading ended with Hong Kong's Hang Seng 3.4% higher.
Looking at longer timeframes, however, the picture remained downbeat on Bitcoin for many.
Popular commentator Byzantine General went on record to declare the likely beginning of the 2022 bear market's darkest phase.
"Perps volume is in a pretty strong downtrend now. Market contracting, speculators capitulating," he wrote, referring to perpetual futures markets.
"We're probably entering the final phase of the bear. But that last phase can last pretty long."
Data from Coinglass additionally showed open interest in futures continuing to decline.
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GBTC 'elevator to hell' sees Bitcoin spot price approach 100% premium
Bitcoin investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), is trading close to 50% below the BTC price on spot markets.
Data from on-chain analytics platform Coinglass confirms that on Dec. 8, GBTC shares hit a new record low of -47.2% against BTC/USD.
GBTC troubles pile up post-FTX
In the latest bout of nerves to hit the Bitcoin industry since the fall of FTX, GBTC is nearing half-price versus the price of Bitcoin.
The largest institutional Bitcoin investment vehicle, with assets worth around $10 billion, GBTC has faced numerous challenges in recent years.
The price of its shares previously traded higher than BTC/USD, resulting in what was called the “GBTC premium.” Since 2021, however, that premium has turned negative, but the resulting “discount” has done little to lure additional institutional interest.
As reported, beyond a few key exceptions such as ARK Invest, GBTC is languishing as operator Grayscale, part of Digital Currency Group (DCG), attempts to convert it to an exchange-traded fund (ETF) — suing United States regulators standing in its way.
Amid the legal battle, FTX has sparked liquidity problems elsewhere in the DCG empire, and this has led to doubts over Grayscale and GBTC. Grayscale declining to show proof of its BTC reserves last month, despite custodian Coinbase confirming its assets were secure, added to the tensions.
“Grayscale is in some real trouble if they have to reveal where all the Bitcoins are that back the GBTC,” popular commented Bitfinex’ed wrote in part of a Twitter discussion on the topic this week.
This week, things became even worse, as Grayscale faced a lawsuit from investor Fir Tree over what it calls “shareholder-unfriendly actions.”
Meanwhile, overall interest in crypto ETFs has plummeted this year, separate data suggests.
Woo: Problems "partly bullish" for Bitcoin
With that, the GBTC premium, having barely recovered from previous record lows, sank even further versus Bitcoin, known as its relationship to net asset value (NAV).
“$GBTC discount to bitcoin NAV is on the express elevator to hell. => sentiment = bearish,” Timothy Peterson, investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, summarized.
Others lamented the slow pace of change in the U.S. as fueling the fire.
“Quite a lot of the pain this year would have been avoided if GBTC had been made into an ETF SEC keeping everyone safe!” investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne reacted, echoing popular sentiment from recent weeks.
Willy Woo, creator of statistics resource Woobull, meanwhile argued that the impact of fading GBTC exposure was not necessarily a straight negative for BTC price strength.
“The GBTC / DCG / Genesis fears is a bearish cloud hanging over the market. But counterintuitively part of the impact has been bullish for BTC price,” he tweeted on Dec. 5.
“37.5% of people who sold GBTC bought spot BTC to take custody. Selling GBTC does not impact BTC price, buying spot does.”
An additional Twitter survey quizzed the platform's users who notionally own GBTC over their motives to sell.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction as BTC Lacks On-chain Signal; Today's Key Trading Level
The Bitcoin price prediction hasn't altered much throughout the Asian session today, as BTC remains above the important support level of $16,550. Given the optimistic technical signs, the market is awaiting a critical on-chain signal before entering a typical bull market.
The market's ongoing fear is keeping Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies under pressure.
Sam Bankman-Fried Rescinds Extradition Contest
A former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried plans to appear in court in the Bahamas on Monday to withdraw his opposition to extradition to the United States, where he confronts fraud accusations. As he rode the cryptocurrency bubble to make FTX one of the world's largest exchanges, Bankman-Fried acquired a wealth estimated at over $20 billion.
The 30-year-old cryptocurrency tycoon was indicted on Tuesday in federal court in Manhattan on charges that he stole billions of dollars from FTX customers and used the money to pay off debts, cover personal costs, and invest in his crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research LLC.
If he agrees to extradition, he will be able to face accusations of wire fraud, money laundering, and improper use of campaign funds in a US court.
Bankman-Fried will have to enter a plea and the judge will decide on bail at his initial court proceeding in Manhattan, according to Margulis-Ohnuma. This hearing should occur within 48 hours of Bankman-arrival Fried's in the United States, the lawyer said, adding that it was likely to happen much sooner.
Mazars Pause Working With Crypto Firms, Binance at Risk?
Sam Bankman Fried's fall from grace has been finalized, and his rival, Changpeng Zhao, founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance, is under increasing scrutiny as a result.
Concerns were raised anew on Friday when auditing firm Mazars Group suspended work for Binance and other cryptocurrency firms on reports supposed to show that the companies retain sufficient reserves to cover any potential rise in consumer withdrawals.
Zhao has frequently stated that Binance does not misappropriate customer funds like FTX allegedly did and that his exchange can handle any number of withdrawals. Binance has been around longer than FTX, which means it has weathered prior "crypto winters," like as the 80% drop in Bitcoin's value between December 2017 and December 2018.
It has been a challenging few days anyway.
Indeed, it was likely the market's lack of trust in Mazars' "proof-of-reserves" reports that drove the business to suspend all such work. This latest action by Mazars threatens to muddy an accounting picture many already thought opaque.
Binance's market dominance in the wake of FTX's collapse doesn't sit well in a sector that preaches decentralization, even for those who ostensibly support CZ and his exchange.
The recent drop in cryptocurrency prices in response to news of CZ's company adds fuel to the fire, causing a dip in Bitcoin, and other leading altcoins. Let's take a look at the technical side of the market.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin's current price is $16,747, and the 24-hour trading volume is $11 billion. Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 0.20% since yesterday.
The BTC/USD pair is projected to find immediate support near $16,560 on Sunday. BTC prices could jump to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $17,000 because the RSI and MACD indicators are in the oversold zone.
Further up, the BTC/USD pair is set to face new resistance at $17,250, a level stretched by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point and the 50-day simple moving average.
A break below $16,570, on the other hand, may expose BTC to $16,150.
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Bitcoin targets $16.7K amid fear BNB may 'drag whole crypto market down'
Bitcoin looked set to ditch $17,000 after the Dec. 16 Wall Street open as United States equities continued to fall.
Analyst: $240BNB "has nothing but air below it"
Data tracked new intraday lows of $16,743 for BTC/USD on Bitstamp.
The pair had abruptly dived nearly 3% earlier in the day, compounding losses, which immediately followed one-month highs.
Ongoing concerns over largest global exchange Binance pervaded the mood, these coming despite the best efforts of CEO, Changpeng Zhao, to dispel what he called “FUD.” As Cointelegraph reported, longtime crypto traders were similarly skeptical of the credibility of the “craziest rumors” about the crypto exchange sector.
Nonetheless, markets refused to give them a break, and beyond Bitcoin, warnings increased over the fate of Binance’s in-house token, Binance Coin BNB/USD fell to near $240 on the day, marking its lowest levels since July.
“BNB has nothing but air below it,” popular trader and analyst Matthew Hyland acknowledged.
“As the 3rd largest non-stable crypto, if it crashes here it's going to drag the whole crypto market down with it.”
The move fed into bearish traders’ longer-term plan, with Il Capo of Crypto notably already calling for a bottom below $50.
Pressure increased around Binance itself on the day, with its proof of reserves report deleted by auditor Mazars Group, which added that it would no longer work with crypto industry clients.
In a square-off on Twitter, meanwhile, Zhang publicly ridiculed a post from outspoken television personality Jim Cramer, who said that he “would trust my money more in Draftkings than i would binance.”
“Now we are safe!” Zhang responded.
Crypto limps lower with U.S. stocks
Beyond crypto, U.S. stocks saw another weak performance at the open, the S&P 500 down around 1.4% at the time of writing.
For Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, the situation was not as bad as it may seem.
“Normal Reversion Can Feel Like a Crash - The propensity for correlations to gravitate to 1-to-1 when the stock market declines may be a primary factor for all assets in 2023, particularly commodities,” he wrote in part of commentary alongside an explanatory chart.
Earlier, McGlone nonetheless cautioned that the marked was displaying potential similarities to the period before the 1929 Wall Street Crash.
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Bitcoin dips under $17K as ‘craziest rumors’ over Binance sink BTC price
Bitcoin fell below $17,000 on Dec. 16 as traders warned of overreaction to “FUD” involving exchange Binance and others.
Binance “FUD” fuels bearish BTC moves
Data followed BTC/USD as it put in multi-day lows of $16,928 on Bitstamp.
The pair retraced its entire run to one-month highs courtesy of the latest macroeconomic data and policy update from the United States.
Amid ongoing concerns over the solvency of largest global exchange Binance, market sentiment showed what traders argued was a clear case of cold feet.
The evidence, they suggested, simply did not stack up in bears’ favor.
“The craziest rumours and FUD going around on literally everybody in the crypto exchange business,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, tweeted on the day.
A further post expanded on who those players are:
“Apparently the consensus is that Tether, Binance, DCG are all going to fall. Potentially even Michael Saylor. Clear, got it.”
Fellow trader and analyst Crypto Ed sounded equally skeptical, drawing attention to Bitcoin’s copycat comedown in line with U.S. equities the day prior.
“Interesting to see everyone suddenly so bearish on BTC as if it's solely acting so weak. SPX is doing exactly the same, maybe even weaker,” he told followers, querying whether the “Binance fud” really had a role to play.
In examination of Binance’s previous proof of reserves statement, meanwhile, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant likewise found little evidence of foul play.
“To evaluate the information contained in Binance's Proof-of-Reserves report, we compared the liabilities presented by Binance in the report to the on-chain metric data we have at CryptoQuant regarding Binance’s BTC Reserves (our estimation of the deposits made by Binance's customers),” it explained in a blog post on Dec. 15:
“We discovered that the liabilities stated by Binance are highly similar to our assessment (99%).”
It added that the data Binance supplied about its liabilities “makes sense.”
No amount of reassurance was enough to console BTC price action on the day, however, with $17,000 barely holding at the time of writing.
Popular trader Crypto Tony thus announced entry of “the next wave down for the bears,” amid ongoing predictions of a cycle low at $12,000 or under.
“BTC all as expected ... if we consolidate for a while above 16900 I will open a long .... still patient for now,” fellow trader Elizy wrote in a fresh update.
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G20 Governments Working Together to Develop a Unified Cryptocurrency Policy
The G20 countries plan to create a policy consensus on cryptocurrencies in a bid to better regulate the asset class.
On Wednesday, India’s federal economic affairs secretary Ajay Seth said the G20 countries will study the implications of cryptocurrencies for the economy, monetary policy, and the banking sector in order to inform a policy consensus, according to a report by Reuters.
"The regulation should flow from the policy view taken. In fact, one of the priorities which have been put on the table is to help countries build a consensus for policy approach to the crypto assets," he said.
The G20 or Group of Twenty, is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union. It works to address major issues related to the global economy, such as international financial stability, climate change mitigation, and sustainable development.
As of now, India holds the G20 presidency and has been hosting the group's first meeting of finance and central bank deputies on December 13-15 in Bengaluru.
The crypto industry is largely unregulated, and a policy consensus could help different jurisdictions establish a regulatory framework in accordance with their peers.
Notably, the emphasis on crypto regulation comes after the unprecedented collapse of FTX, once the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange that has failed, delivering billions of dollars in losses to retail clients.
As reported, the government of The Bahamas arrested Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of the exchange, on Monday following the "receipt of formal notification from the United States that it has filed criminal charges against SBF and is likely to request his extradition.
The Southern District of New York has indicted SBF on eight criminal charges including wire fraud and conspiracy by misusing customer funds. Separately, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged SBF with "orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX."
India Asks for Global Collaboration to Regulate Crypto
Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s Finance Minister, has claimed that a global collaboration would be required for any effective regulation or ban. Back in July, she said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) believes cryptocurrencies are not currencies because every modern currency needs to be issued by the government or central bank.
“Cryptocurrencies are by definition borderless and require international collaboration to prevent regulatory arbitrage. Therefore, any legislation for regulation or for banning can be effective only after significant international collaboration on evaluation of the risks and benefits and evolution of common taxonomy and standards," she said at the time.
Earlier this year, India’s government unveiled its crypto tax plans, which included a proposal to tax gains from crypto transfers at a 30% rate. Moreover, any buyer of virtual digital assets will have to pay a 1% tax deduction at source (TDS).
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Bitcoin traders await FOMC, Powell as BTC price hits new 1-month high
Bitcoin set new one-month highs on the Dec. 14 Wall Street open on a day full of key events for the United States Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin bullish with stocks into FOMC
Data showed BTC/USD hitting $18,126 on Bitstamp, beating the $18,106 high from the day prior.
U.S. stocks edged higher as markets eagerly awaited feedback from the Fed after the November Consumer Price Index print showed inflation slowing beyond expectations.
Dec. 14 was set to see a decision on rate hikes for the month from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), together with a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The latter event tends to spark considerable volatility, with pundits closely scrutinizing Powell’s language for hints about longer-term economic policy.
“With FOMC coming up today, we’re at a crucial stage,” popular trader Crypto Ed summarized in a Twitter thread.
“A sweep of 18,2k liquidity is what everyone is looking for. Max pain would be a godlike pump and leaving everyone behind.”
Crypto Ed nonetheless warned that an upward reversal for the U.S. Dollar Index, combined with a stepwise decline in stocks, would scupper Bitcoin bulls’ euphoria.
“A decoupling would be nice, but unlikely,” he added.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, was overall more bullish on BTC.
“The markets fell from $20K to $15.6K due to the FTX collapse. We’re currently trading at $18K, slightly higher than the low in June,” he told Twitter followers in one of several posts.
“I understand the bearish thesis, but this is honestly a sign of strength for Bitcoin.”
Prior to that, Van de Poppe had given upside targets of up to $18,300, with $17,200 needing to sustain as support.
$12,000 BTC waits in the wing
Entertaining a bearish end to events, traders including Crypto Tony and Il Capo of Crypto went against the grain.
For Crypto Tony, a trip as low as $10,000 was “not out of the question yet,” while Il Capo of Crypto produced a frank forecast of an imminent capitulation.
“Simple,” he commented alongside with a chart giving $12,000 as a support zone to cushion the fall.
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Ethereum rallies to $1,350, but derivatives metrics remain neutral to bearish
Ether rallied 6.3% to $1,350 on Dec. 13, mimicking a similar failed attempt that took place on Nov. 10. Despite reaching the highest level in 33 days, the gains were not enough to instill confidence in traders according to two key derivatives metrics.
Bulls' frustrations can partially be explained by Binance facing a near-record $1.1 billion in withdrawals over a 24-hour period. The unusual behavior comes as the exchange attempts to put out multiple disputes about its proof of reserves and overall solvency on crypto Twitter. According to Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, the social media posts amount to nothing more than FUD.
However, Binance's USD Coin reserves were emptied after alleged troubles with commercial banking hours.
The negative newsflow continued on Dec. 13, as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of now-bankrupt FTX crypto exchange. The fresh charges come just a day after his arrest by Bahamian authorities at the request of the U.S. government.
On Dec. 13, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also filed a lawsuit against Bankman-Fried, FTX and Alameda Research, claiming violations of the Commodity Exchange Act. It demanded a jury trial.
Traders are relieved that Ether is trading above the $1,300 level, but the rebound has been mostly driven by the Consumer Price Index print for November at 7.1% year-on-year, which was a tad bit softer than expected. More importantly, the U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to decide on the latest interest rate hike on Dec. 14, with analysts expecting the pace of rate hikes to decline now that inflation appears to have peaked.
Consequently, investors believe that Ether could retrace its recent gains if comments Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell take a hawkish angle, a point highlighted by trader CryptoAceBTC:
Let's look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the surprise pump positively impacted investors' sentiment.
The rally to $1,300 had a limited impact on confidence
Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Bu professional traders prefer these instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates in a perpetual futures contract.
The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. When the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers, which is a bearish indicator.
The chart above shows that derivatives traders remain in "fear mode" because the Ether futures premium is below 0%, indicating the absence of leverage buyers' demand. Still, such data does not signal traders expect further adverse price action.
For this reason, traders should analyze Ether's options markets to understand whether investors are pricing higher odds of surprise negative price movements.
Options traders were on the verge of turning neutral
The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.
In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.
The delta skew improved considerably between Dec. 7 and Dec. 11, declining from a fearful 16% to a neutral balanced-risk options pricing at 9.5%. The movement signaled that options traders were more comfortable with downside risks. However, the situation changed on Dec. 13 after Ether failed to break the $1,350 resistance.
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SEC charges former FTX CEO SBF for defrauding investors a day after his arrest
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed charges against Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of now-bankrupt crypto exchange FTX.
The SEC has charged Bankman-Fried with violating the anti-fraud provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The SEC’s complaint seeks injunctions against future securities law violation that prohibits Bankman-Fried from participating in the issuance, purchase, offer, or sale of any securities except for his own personal account.
SEC charged Bankman-Fried for orchestrating a scheme to defraud equity investors in FTX Trading Ltd. (FTX). The regulatory body noted that the former CEO concealed his "diversion of FTX customers’ funds to crypto trading firm Alameda Research while raising more than $1.8 billion from investors."
We allege that Sam Bankman-Fried built a house of cards on a foundation of deception while telling investors that it was one of the safest buildings in crypto," said SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
The fresh charges against the former CEO come just a day after his arrest by Bahamian authorities at the request of U.S. authorities. Just hours after Bankman-Fried's arrest, SEC announced they were preparing to file charges against the FTX co-founder, which will be separate from the ones leading to his most recent arrest in the Bahamas.
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Bitcoin’s bear market is far from over, but data points to improving investor sentiment
2022 was a near-unprecedented year of extremes and black swan events for the crypto market, and now that the year is about to wrap up, analysts are reflecting on the lessons learned and attempting to identify the trends which may point to bullish price action in 2023.
The collapse of Terra Luna, Three Arrows Capital and FTX created a credit crunch, a severe reduction in capital inflows and an increased threat that additional major centralized exchanges could collapse.
Despite the severity of the market downturn, a few positives have emerged. Data shows long-term hodlers and smaller-sized wallets are actively accumulating during this period of low volatility.
While the market continues to see red, positives are emerging.
Low liquidity and losses abound
When liquidity was flooding into the market in November 2021, BTC price hit an all-time high and investors realized $455 billion in profits. Conversely, as liquidity tightened in what many investors hoped were the darkest days of the bear market, $213 billion in realized losses led to investors giving back 46.8% of the peak bull market profits. The magnitude of the profits versus realized losses is similar to the 2018 bear where the ratio retraction from gains hit 47.9%.
In the thread below, Cumberland, a major liquidity provider within the crypto sector, highlighted the liquidity challenges facing the market.
According to Cumberland, the limited liquidity is a result of large-scale capitulations, leaving bankrupt firms with no remaining coins to sell.
CoinShares analysis of weekly fund flows also showed CoinShares trading volumes reaching a new 2-year low of $677 million for the week. The low trading volumes are coupled with crypto funds flowing out of digital assets, further hampering potential upside.
Historically, centralized exchanges have been a source for fiat onboarding which helps bring more capital into the crypto asset space. Due to regulatory concerns and CEX fears, bringing in new funds has become challenging.
While the above data is very bearish, the market also has some data points that may point to a reversal.
Minimal improvements in investor sentiment appears
While traders are hoping for a positive Federal Reserve meeting to reverse the short-term bearish trend, there are on-chain data points that show sentiment making some marginal improvements.
CoinShares states that even with CEX fears and smaller volumes, inflows are improving:
"Bitcoin saw inflows totalling $17 million, sentiment has been steadily improving since mid- November with inflows since then now totalling $108 million."
While these numbers are not groundbreaking, Bitcoin’s low volatility offers investors an opportunity to dollar-cost average and await a potential trend reversal. Current volatility is at multi-year lows for Bitcoin,reaching figures last witnessed in October 2020.
Record lows in volatility is coupled with a new all-time high in long-term Bitcoin hodlers cohort. Even as the price of BTC remains in a downtrend, 72.3% of all circulating Bitcoin supply is now in the hands of long-term hodlers.
Glassnode notes that data shows:
“The near linear uptrend in this metric is a reflection of the heavy coin accumulation that occurred in June and July 2022, immediately after the deleveraging event inspired by 3AC and failing lenders in the space.”
Adding to this perspective, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin has bottomed after a handful of bankruptcies flushed irresponsible entities from the space.
While the uptick in sentiment and institutional investor inflows are not substantial enough to trigger a trend reversal, the positive data points show some signs of recovery.
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BTC price shakes off Binance 'FUD' as analysts eye Q1 2023 Bitcoin bottom
Bitcoin stayed steady near $17,000 at the Dec. 12 Wall Street open as news involving Binance failed to spark BTC price downside.
Factors line up to "scare" Bitcoin trade
Data showed BTC/USD avoiding fresh volatility as United States markets opened.
Having traded sideways throughout the weekend, the pair offered few cues to analysts, who were waiting for U.S. macroeconomic data to shake up the status quo.
This, in the form of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, would nonetheless be a pivotal moment for crypto assets, they agreed, with the potential for significant upside and downside hinging on the numbers, due Dec. 13.
Subsequent events involving the Federal Reserve would equally shape price performance, they said.
In the meantime, however, Bitcoin appeared to shrug off news that largest global exchange Binance was reportedly the target of a U.S. money laundering lawsuit.
Appearing in Reuters, a report stated that the Department of Justice (DoJ) was undecided over whether to bring charges against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, after an investigation which it began in 2018.
This followed fresh concerns over the exchange’s proof of reserves, which various commentators nonetheless labeled “FUD” as it spread through the media.
“Bitcoin remains stable, altcoins losing value, $BTC dominance bouncing upwards and currently rallying,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, wrote in part of a summary on the day.
Van de Poppe noted that market participants were still “scared” due to upcoming macro data and legal events tied to the FTX scandal.
Crypto sentiment more broadly remained stronger than the worst case scenario, as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measured 27/100 on the day — still above its lowes “extreme fear” zone.
Risk-asset bottom could come after Fed pivot
On the topic of near-term market action, there were fresh bearish warnings for both crypto and risk assets.
Popular trader Moustache turned to U.S. stocks to remind followers that despite the Fed potentially pivoting on rate hikes, historically, this did not mark a turning point for performance.
“Don't forget that the stock market has crashed very hard every time in history AFTER the FED's Pivot,” he commented alongside a chart.
“Possible that the market will make a rally, because of the expectations of a pivot. After the official announcement: Sell the news.”
He added that the result could be a “final bottom for $BTC.”
Analyst Toni Ghinea was similarly wary, telling followers that the BTC/USD bottom would be between $11,000 and $14,000 and come in Q1 next year.
“Bottom is 11-14k. Capitulation is in Q1 2023,” he wrote, also including a bounce target of up to $30,000.
“Ignore the noise.”
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Bitcoin price liquidation risk increases as BTC struggles to reclaim $18K
Bitcoin price had a mixed reaction on Dec. 9 after the November report on United States producer prices showed a 7.4% increase versus 2021. The data suggested that wholesale costs continued to rise and inflation may last longer than investors had previously believed. Oil prices are also still a focus for investors, with crude WTI hitting a new yearly low at $71.10 on Dec. 8.
The United States Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of top foreign currencies, sustained the 104.50 level, but the index traded at 104.10, a 5-month low on Dec. 4. This signals low confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to curb inflation without causing a significant recession.
Trader gutsareon noted that the choppy activity caused leverage longs and shorts to be liquidated, but it was followed by a failed tentative dump below $17,050.
According to the analysis, the open interest stagnation on futures contracts indicated low confidence from bears.
Regulatory uncertainty could have played a key role in limiting Bitcoin's upside. On Dec. 8, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued new guidance that could see publicly traded companies disclose their exposure to crypto assets.
The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance said that the recent crisis in the crypto asset industry has “caused widespread disruption” and that U.S. companies might have disclosure obligations under federal securities laws to disclose whether these events could impact their business.
Let’s look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.
Bitcoin margin longs faced a drastic increase
Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.
For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t always matched.
The above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased from Dec. 4 to Dec. 9, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs even after multiple failed attempts to break above the $17,300 resistance.
Currently at 35, the metric favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin and indicates that shorts are not confident about building bearish leveraged positions.
Option traders remain risk-averse
Traders should analyze options markets to understand whether Bitcoin will eventually succumb to the bearish newsflow. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.
The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.
In short, the skew metric will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.
As displayed above, the 25% delta skew improved between Dec. 4 and Dec. 9, shows options traders reduced their risk aversion for unexpected price dumps. However, at the current 15%, the delta skew signals that investors remain fearful because market makers are less included in offering downside protection.
From one side, the lack of open interest increase as Bitcoin tested the intraday low on Dec. 9 seems encouraging. Still, excessive use of margin indicates that buyers might be forced to reduce their positions during surprise downside moves.
The longer it takes for Bitcoin to recapture $18,000, the riskier it becomes for leverage margin longs. Traditional markets continue to play an essential role in setting the trend, so a potential retest down to $16,000 cannot be ruled out.
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Data shows the Bitcoin mining bear market has a ways to go
Bitcoin mining is the backbone of the BTC ecosystem and miners’ returns also provide insight into BTC’s price movements and the health of the wider crypto sector.
It is well-documented that Bitcoin miners are struggling in the current bear market. Blockstream, a leading Bitcoin miner recently raised funds at a 70% discount.
Current mining activity shares similarities to historic BTC bear markets with a few caveats.
Let’s explore what this means for the current Bitcoin cycle.
Analysis shows that based on previous cycles the bear market may continue
Bitcoin mining profitability can be measured by taking the miner’s revenue per kilowatt hour (kWh). According to Jaran Mellerud, a Bitcoin analyst for Hashrate Index, a BTC mining bear market has a sustained period of revenue per kWh of less than $0.25. Under his assumption, he calculates using the most efficient Bitcoin mining machine on the market.
The 2018 bear market lasted nearly a year, sending kWh to a bottom of $0.12. Following the downtrend, a short bull market commenced until the 2019 bear market began.
According to Mellerud, the 2019 bear market produced all-time low revenue per kWh of $0.083 and lasted 463 days, while Bitcoin price dropped to $5,000.
The most recent mining bear market started in April 2022 according to Mellerud’s analysis of revenue per kWh. As of Dec. 8, the current bear market has lasted for 225 days with a minimum revenue of $0.108 per kWh. The number is higher than in previous bear cycles due to high energy prices.
Comparing the current bear mining cycles, a minimum of 138 bear market days may continue before the market turns. The difference between this period and past cycles is that previously, miners were mainly self-funded whereas now, there are many miners that funded their rapid growth with debt.
Public mining stocks feel the pain
At its peak, Bitcoin mining stocks reached a cumulative value of over $17 billion in the 2021 bull market. The bull market increased investor interest and spurred growth in BTC mining stocks skyrocketed from $2 billion in Nov. 2020.
After reaching the bull market peak in 2021, crypto mining stocks are under immense pressure, with many falling by 90%.
The immense amount of debt taken on by public mining firms taken at Bitcoin’s all-time high is creating a massive debt-to-equity ratio.
A great example of how the bear market is increasing miners’ reliance on debt, is to look at Core Scientific. Before the mining bear market in April, Core Scientific had a mere 0.6 debt-to-equity ratio. Since the start of the bear market, that number has grown to over 24.2 debt-to-equity.
With the Bitcoin mining bear market expected to continue based on past historic BTC trends, more public miners will face equity squeezes. As miner debt continues to grow, investors may get spooked, creating even more depressed prices in the stock market.
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Cardano Price Prediction as Cardano is Named Top Blockchain For Daily Development Activity
The Cardano price has risen by 1.5% in the past 24 hours, in line with a 2% rise for the cryptocurrency market as a whole. At $0.315694, it's basically flat in the past week but down by 15% in the last 30 days.
However, such falls are part of the market-wide decline crypto has witnessed ever since the FTX collapse last month, with Cardano itself having more reasons to be optimistic. In particular, new data has revealed that the layer-one blockchain network leads the rest of ecosystem in terms of development activity, with more daily GitHub commits that other platforms on most days of the week.
And with the platform seeing its ecosystem grow with each passing week, such data points to a bright future for Cardano in which it's one of the busiest and most popular layer-one blockchains.
In turn, this suggests that ADA is dramatically underpriced at the moment, with substantial rallies predicted for it once the market returns to more bullish conditions.
ADA's chart suggests that the altcoin is ripe for a rally. Its relative strength index (purple) has risen from close to 30 in November to around 45 now, and looks set to continue gaining momentum.
At the same time, the coin's 30-day moving average (red) has remained comfortably below its 200-day average (blue) for most of the year. In purely technical terms, this means that ADA is long overdue for a big rebound and further increase.
Needless to say, the weak global macroeconomic situation means that investors may still have to wait for a really strong ADA rally to finally arrive. The same goes with regard to the FTX situation, which also continues to depress the market and investor sentiment, with other struggling firms likely following in FTX's wake.
But once such negative factors are resolved, Cardano's very strong fundamentals put it in a position where ADA can continue to enjoy substantial gains.
For example, even with this 2022's bear market, the Cardano ecosystem has been steadily growing over the past few months, with more than 1,100 apps and projects now building on its network, as well as more than 100 projects already launched.
What's interesting to note about Cardano's recent growth is that since the network enabled smart contracts last September, over 3,900 Plutus scripts (i.e. Cardano's version of smart contracts) have been deployed. This highlights how developers are indeed building on its network, which is slowly gaining a critical mass.
This impression is further reinforced by the aforementioned data coming out of GitHub, which consistently shows Cardano as either the network with the most daily activity or among the most active.
While Cardano doesn't lead such rankings every day of the week, it tends to lead on most days, showing how it's growing at a faster rate than most other networks. In turn, this suggests that it will come to be one of the most active and widely used platforms in the not-too-distant future, with ADA benefitting as a result.
Cardano's total value locked figure now stands at $60 million. While this is still a modest figure, it's important to remember that it was more or less $0 a year ago and only around $1 million at the start of the year, when ADA's price was much higher.
The point here is that, even with a low TVL, ADA is still the ninth-biggest coin in the market by cap. As such, once Cardano develops more and attracts more adoption ADA will become even more valuable, potentially nearing Ethereum (ETH).
Assuming its cap nears ETH's (which is currently $150 billion), ADA could potentially have a price of around $4.40 in the not-too-distant future. Of course, if the market enters a new bullish phase, it could rise even higher, with some experts having set a long-term target of around $5.30 for the coin.
Notably, if Cardano continues its current trajectory and demand for the platform continues to rise, then a $10 ADA token is possible in the future, although it may take some time before it gets there.
Ethereum developers target March 2023 for Shanghai hard fork
According to a discussion at the 151st Ethereum Core Developers Meeting on Dec. 8, core programmers have set a tentative deadline of March 2023 for Ethereum's Shanghai hard fork. In addition, developers will aim for May or June 2023 to launch the Ethereum Improvement Protocol (EIP) 4844 upgrade that will introduce proto-danksharding to the network.
Although the much-anticipated proof-of-stake Merge upgrade was completed on Sept. 15, staked Ether (stETH) is currently locked on the Ethereum Beacon Chain. The token is created by decentralized finance protocol Lido, with close to 3.5 million stETH ($4.48 billion) in circulation. After the Shanghai upgrade, stETH users can withdraw their funds along with any applicable staking rewards for validating network transactions. The Ethereum Foundation said that it structured the upgrades in this manner to “simplify and maximize focus on a successful transition to proof-of-stake.”
After the hard fork, the EIP-4844 upgrade is designed to introduce a new data-blob-transaction prototype previously invented by developers on Feb. 21, 2022. Currently, layer-2 technologies such as Optimistic Rollups can move Ethereum computation and network storage off-chain to improve scalability by 10x to 100x. Developers anticipate that introducing large portable bundles that can contain cheaper data in Ethereum transactions can improve the capacity of rollups by up to 100x. However, while the upgrade will lower the transaction fees on layer-2 solutions, it will not affect Ethereum gas fees.
Last December, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared that his end game was for the blockchain to act as a simple base layer, with users “fully comfortable storing their assets in a ZK [zero knowledge]-rollup running a full EVM [Ethereum Virtual Machine].” Buterin also warned that sharding and data availability sampling are “complex technologies” and would take years of audits and refinement to implement.
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Cryptocurrency market is 'most mature' in these 2 countries, new Huobi report reveals
Bitcoin and crypto are only used by 13.7% of Americans, but they generate more exchange volume than anyone else.
The latest data compiled by exchange Huobi confirms that in 2022, the United States is the most “mature” cryptocurrency market.
U.S., Vietnam lead the way on crypto
Despite the heavy drawdowns in price for Bitcoin and altcoins this year, interest throughout the world remains “extremely active,” and the leaders may come as a surprise.
In its latest annual report, Huobi Research, an affiliate of Huobi Global, revealed that the U.S. accounts for 9.2% of global centralized exchange (CEX) volume. When it comes to DeFi, the figure is even higher — 31.8% of global volumes.
At the same time, the percentage of the population using crypto is not as high as in some other jurisdictions. 13.7% of Americans use crypto, the report said, compared to 20.3% Vietnam, the leader out of the 15 countries examined.
Overall, however, the U.S. achieved the highest normalized score for “crypto market maturity,” far ahead of any competitor. Second on the list is Vietnam, with a score of 35 versus 91.9 for the U.S.
Nonetheless, Huobi describes Vietnam as the country with the “highest adoption rate in cryptocurrency” and calls the crypto trading scene in both South Korea and Japan “extremely active.”
“Japan and South Korea have contributed tremendous traffic to exchanges. Specifically, South Korea ranked second with 7.4% and Japan ranked sixth with 3.85% in Asia,” the report noted.
At the other end of the spectrum, the countries with the lowest maturity score are China, Singapore and South Korea, with 5.9, 9.4 and 14.5, respectively.
Singapore stands out with its position, given the rate of regulatory expansion and acceptance of cryptocurrency as a technology.
“Singapore has become the best destination for technology startups, luring a large number of innovators and unicorn companies, which naturally includes the crypto players,” Huobi wrote.
“Singapore maintains highly tolerance and openness for the crypto industry: regulations are enforced, but there is still plenty of room for innovation.”
The report nonetheless identifies only 4.9% of Singapore’s population trading crypto, contributing 0.8% of global CEX volumes, with an internet population index of just 2/100.
"Appropriate" regulation would prevent FTX black swan
The report meanwhile acknowledges that the regulatory situation is tenuous for crypto in the wake of the FTX scandal.
Despite this, FTX is not the biggest catastrophe of the year for crypto, it says, with the Terra LUNA debacle and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) insolvency more pressing.
"The FTX bankruptcy is the third most influential incidents in 2022 after the collapses of Terra and 3AC," it commented.
"The main issues of the FTX case are the misappropriation of funds, affiliate transactions with Alameda Research, etc. At the time, some U.S. regulators expressed that they were investigating or had already started investigating the issues a few months ago. However, the FTX incident will not happen if regulations of crypto assets in various countries are appropriately in place."
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Bitcoin options data shows bulls aiming for $17K BTC price by Friday’s expiry
Bitcoin price crashed to $15,500 on Nov. 21, driving the price to its lowest level in two years. The 2-day-long correction totaled an 8% downtrend and wiped out $230 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts.
The price move gave the false impression to bears that a sub-$15,500 expiry on the Dec. 9 options expiry was feasible, but those bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.
Year-to-date, Bitcoin price is 65% down for 2022, but the leading cryptocurrency remains a top 30 global tradable asset class ahead of tech giants like Meta Platforms (META), Samsung (005930.KS), and Coca-Cola (KO).
Investors' main concern is still the possibility of a recession if the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates for longer than expected. Proof of this comes from Dec. 2 data which showed that 263,000 jobs were created in November, signaling the Fed’s effort to slow the economy and bring down inflation remains a work in progress.
On Dec. 7, Wells Fargo director Azhar Iqbal wrote in a note to clients that "all told, financial indicators point to a recession on the horizon." Iqbal added, "taken together with the inverted yield curve, markets are clearly braced for a recession in 2023."
Bears were overly pessimistic and will suffer the consequences
The open interest for the Dec. 9 options expiry is $320 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$15,500 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $16,000 on Nov. 22.
The 1.19 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $175 million call (buy) open interest and the $145 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands at $16,900, meaning most bearish bets will likely become worthless.
If Bitcoin's price remains near $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 9, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $16,500 or $15,500 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.
Bulls aim for $18k to secure a $130 million profit
Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Dec. 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:
Between $15,500 and $16,500: 200 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $30 million.
Between $16,500 and $17,000: 1,700 calls vs. 1,500 puts. The net result is balanced between bears and bulls.
Between $17,000 and $18,000: 5,500 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $100 million.
Between $18,000 and $18,500: 7,300 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls completely dominate the expiry by profiting $130 million.
This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.
For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.
Bulls probably have less margin to support the price
Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $18,000 on Friday to secure a potential $130 million profit. On the other hand, the bears' best-case scenario requires a slight push below $16,500 to maximize their gains.
Bitcoin bulls just had $230 million leverage long positions liquidated in two days, so they might have less margin required to support the price.
Considering the negative pressure from traditional markets due to recession concerns and raising interest rates, bears will likely avoid a loss by keeping Bitcoin below $17,000 on Dec 9.
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