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BTC price hits new December low as Bitcoin dips 2% with Asia stocks
Bitcoin hit new month-to-date lows on Dec. 7 as Asian markets fell during trading.
$16,500 stands as support as BTC price wobbles
Data showed BTC/USD dipping to lows of $16,736 on Bitstamp, a level not seen since Nov. 30.
The pair thus began to erase the ground it had reclaimed into the November monthly close, showing heavy influence from Asian equities prior to the Wall Street open.
The mood was nervous on the day, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 3.2% at the time of writing and the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite Index 0.7% and 0.4% lower, respectively.
“Welp, there we go with Bitcoin, couldn't hold support and started falling down, just like indices have been showing weakness,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.
“Have been patiently waiting for a long and will continue to do so. Most likely; longing around $16.5K is valid or reclaim $16.9K.”
Popular Twitter trading account Profit Blue meanwhile entertained the possibility of steeper BTC price declines to come.
For fellow trader Elizy, it was meanwhile time to wait for the reemergence of $16,500 for a long scalp trade.
A similarly optimistic take came from Bull, who eyed a potential reclaim of $17,000 next on shorter timeframes.
Earlier, a scan of the Binance order book from on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators had revealed mounting support at $16,500.
CPI already in focus
With Bitcoin markets still calm compared to November's intense volatility, analysts continued to look for upcoming macro cues.
These were firmly in the form of next week's United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, due Dec. 13.
For trading firm QCP Capital, there was reason to believe that the numbers might favor risk assets when it comes to declining inflation.
"With retailers struggling with inventory all year due to the consumer slowdown, it is likely they have used Black Friday/Cyber Monday to offer eye-popping discounts in order to clear stock, which would factor into the November CPI print released next week," it postulated in its latest market update on Dec. 5.
QCP remained wary on stocks' potential to put in a sustained rally, however, with a breakdown causing further pain for correlated cryptoassets.
"While many are saying that BTC and ETH are lagging equities and should play catch up, rather we see it as equities having overshot fundamentals and will soon be reeled back," it wrote.
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North Korean Lazarus Group is targeting crypto funds with a new spin on an old trick
Microsoft reports that a threat actor has been identified targeting cryptocurrency investment startups. A party Microsoft has dubbed DEV-0139 posed as a cryptocurrency investment company on Telegram and used an Excel file weaponized with “well-crafted” malware to infect systems that it then remotely accessed.
The threat is part of a trend in attacks showing a high level of sophistication. In this case, the threat actor, falsely identifying itself with fake profiles of OKX employees, joined Telegram groups “used to facilitate communication between VIP clients and cryptocurrency exchange platforms,” Microsoft wrote in a Dec. 6 blog post. Microsoft explained:
“We are […] seeing more complex attacks wherein the threat actor shows great knowledge and preparation, taking steps to gain their target’s trust before deploying payloads.”
In October, the target was invited to join a new group and then asked for feedback on an Excel document that compared OKX, Binance and Huobi VIP fee structures. The document provided accurate information and high awareness of the reality of crypto trading, but it also invisibly sideloaded a malicious .dll (Dynamic Link Library) file to create a backdoor into the user’s system. The target was then asked to open the .dll file themselves during the course of the discussion on fees.
The attack technique itself has long been known. Microsoft suggested the threat actor was the same as the one found using .dll files for similar purposes in June and that was probably behind other incidents as well. According to Microsoft, DEV-0139 is the same actor that cybersecurity firm Volexity linked to North Korea’s state-sponsored Lazarus Group, using a variant of malware known as AppleJeus and an MSI (Microsoft installer). The United States federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency documented AppleJeus in 2021, and Kaspersky Labs reported on it in 2020.
The U.S. Treasury Department has officially connected Lazarus Group to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
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Bitcoin clings to $17K as ARK flags 'historically significant capitulation'
Bitcoin and decentralized blockchains are “as strong as ever” in the wake of the FTX meltdown, ARK Invest says.
In the latest edition of its monthly newsletter, “The Bitcoin Monthly,” the investment giant came out firmly bullish on BTC.
ARK: FTX scandal may be "most damaging event" ever
With BTC price volatility ebbing into December, the industry is still reeling from ongoing FTX contagion.
As lawmakers only begin to get to grips with the events, when it comes to Bitcoin, ARK is doubling down on its conviction — and setting it firmly apart from centralized alternatives.
“The fall of FTX could be the most damaging event in crypto history,” one of the latest report’s “key takeaways” states.
While acknowledging that even Digital Currency Group (DCG) — one of whose products, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), it recently bought — “faces considerable pressure” as part of the fallout, ARK delivered a key critique of what it called “centralized intermediaries.”
“ARK’s conviction in decentralized and transparent public blockchains is as strong as ever,” it confirmed.
“The FTX and other cases like Celsius and Alameda suggest that decentralization and transparency are paramount as antidotes to the gross mismanagement that can be associated with centralized intermediaries, especially fraudulent ones.”
As such, despite being bearish on some on-chain metrics, there was reason to keep the faith on Bitcoin.
Examples to bear in mind included the resilience of long-term investors, a group refusing to give into the temptation to sell despite recent BTC price declines.
“We believe this datapoint indicates holders’ long-term focus and high conviction, despite recent events. Today, long-term-holder supply is 72% of bitcoin’s total circulating supply,” the report continued.
"A historically significant capitulation is underway"
Bitcoin's realized profit/ loss ratio also came in for attention, this now hitting all-time lows, as Cointelegraph reported.
Profit/ loss ratio refers to BTC transacted on-chain in profit and loss, respectively.
“Bitcoin found meaningful bottoms in every previous instance—2011, 2015, and 2019—in which that metric reached
“November’s realized profit/loss data inform our view that a historically significant capitulation is underway.”
BTC/USD traded around the $17,000 mark at the Dec. 6 Wall Street open, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed, still attempting to flip the level to firm support after days of indecisiveness.
ARK's CEO, Cathie Wood, earlier this year doubled down on a prediction that Bitcoin would hit $1 million by 2030.
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Bitcoin 2022 bear market 'usual' despite key trend line loss — analyst
Bitcoin spending an “unprecedented” period below a key moving average is a poor guide to the 2022 bear market.
That was the opinion of analyst Superswell, who this week championed on-chain metrics as a way of understanding current BTC price action.
“Business as usual so far” for Bitcoin bear market
In a series of tweets on Dec. 5, Superswell challenged those concerned about the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) disappearing as support on BTC/USD.
“Over the last few months, I've seen quite a few people point out that BTC failing to find support at the 200wkSMA is unprecedented and therefore we're in uncharted territory - especially considering how much time we have spent below,” part the thread read.
“This is where I personally feel that onchain data provides better information as to where we are in relation to historical capitulations than TA (ie: 200wkSMA).”
BTC/USD fell below the 200 SMA in mid-August, taking its stint with the trend line as resistance to nearly four months — a record, as confirmed by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
However, on-chain data tells a different story, and has been compiling bear market bottom signals for weeks or longer.
Superswell highlighted four in particular from on-chain analytics firm, Glassnode: percent supply in profit, percent volume in profit, adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) and market value versus realized value (MVRV).
While these have so far not beaten (or in some cases, even matched) previous bear markets, this is no reason to fear the worst, Superswell continued.
“From an on-chain perspective, this is business as usual *so far* for a macro bottom and bear market,” he wrote.
“This is not to say that *because* these levels have been hit, we have therefore bottomed.”
An example came in the form of percent volume in profit — a chart showing what portion of transaction volume involved coins moving at a higher price than they did last time.
Currently trending down, the metric needs to begin an uptrend — a series of higher swing lows and swing higher highs, which Superswell says would “confirm a macro reversal.”
“This is just an example of *one* reversal pattern. There are many to look for,” he noted.
Hopes of BTC price “macro regime shift”
Glassnode itself meanwhile also targeted profit and loss, which superswell described as “*the* invisible hand” in the market, for macro cues this week.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” researchers noted that losses outpacing gains have “historically coincided with a macro market regime shift.”
An accompanying chart showed the ratio of on-chain realized losses versus realized gains — in other words, the ratio of loss-making on-chain transactions to those carried out in profit.
“Here we can observe that the ratio between realized profit / loss has recorded a new all time low,” Glassnode summarized.
“This indicates that losses locked in by the market were 14x larger than profit taking events. It is likely this in part reflects how the entirety of the 2020-22 cycle price action is above the spot price.”
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Vitalik Buterin discusses his 'excitement' for the future of Ethereum
In a blog post dated Dec. 5, Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote that money, blockchain identities, decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and hybrid applications were the top developments he was excited about in the Ethereum ecosystem. Buterin then described his experience in using Ether as a means of payment in a cafe in Argentina:
"When we walked in, the owner recognized me, and immediately showed me that he has ETH and other crypto-assets on his Binance account. We ordered tea and snacks, and we asked if we could pay in ETH. The coffee shop owner obliged, and showed me the QR code for his Binance deposit address, to which I sent about $20 of ETH from my Status wallet on my phone."
Buterin continued that due to side effects of The Merge, "transactions get included significantly more quickly, and the chain has become more stable, making it safer to accept transactions after fewer confirmations." The Ethereum co-founder then contrasted it with his earlier coffee experience, where at the time, network fees accounted for one-third of the transaction, and funds took several minutes to arrive.
Then, speaking of the rise of DeFi, Buterin commented that the industry started off honorable and limited but quickly became "an overcapitalized monster that relied on unsustainable forms of yield forming." However, he added that DeFi is in the "early stages of setting down into a stable medium, improving security, and refocusing on a few applications that are particularly valuable."
Next, Buterin praised the rise of blockchain identification methods, such as the Sign In With Ethereum (SIWE), and their ability to enhance user privacy. "[SIWE] it allows you to interact with a site without giving Google or Facebook access to your private information or the ability to take over or lock you out of your account," wrote Buterin. Furthermore, he said such protocols could also be used to prove eligibility in events like governance or airdrops without compromising users' personal data.
Regarding the topic of DAOs, Buterin said while they "captures many of the hopes and dreams that people have put into the crypto space to build more democratic, resilient and efficient forms of governance," greater work needs to be done to improve censorship resistance and susceptibility to internal organization. Highlighting the example of MakerDAO, Buterin wrote:
"MakerDAO has $7.8 billion in collateral, over 17x the market cap of the profit-taking token, MKR. Hence, if governance was up to MKR holders with no safeguards, someone could buy up half the MKR, use that to manipulate the price oracles, and steal a large portion of the collateral for themselves."
Finally, the Ethereum co-founder noted the potential of merging Ethereum blockchain technology with off-chain processes, such as voting. In one scenario, Buterin wrote: "Votes are published to the blockchain, so users have a way independent of the voting system to ensure that their votes get included. But votes are encrypted, preserving privacy, and a ZK-SNARK-based solution."
As for the next steps, Buterin stuck to his belief of prioritizing projects with long-term value propositions rather than those fixated on short-term profits. "Many of the more stable and boring applications do not get built because there is less excitement and less short-term profit to be earned around them: the LUNA market cap got to over $30 billion, while stablecoins striving for robustness and simplicity often get largely ignored for years," he wrote. Post-Merge, Ethereum's next major anticipated update is the Shanghai Upgrade, which would enable users to withdraw their staked Ether. The Upgrade is scheduled for the second half of 2023.
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Bitcoin Price and Ethereum Back above $17,000 and $1,300 - Time to Buy?
Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers
Three of the top 100 coins that have gained value in the last 24 hours are Cronos (CRO), Celo (CELO), and Litecoin (LTC). The price of CRO has increased nearly 12% to $0.071; the price of CELO has increased by more than 11% to $0.6955, and the price of LTC is up by nearly 7.5%.
Monero (XMR), Neutrino USD (USDN), and TRON (TRX) are three of the top 100 coins that have lost value in the last 24 hours. Whereas XMR has lost about 1.30% to trade at $144.50, USDN is down nearly 1% to trade at $0.8890. At the same time, the TRX price is down over 0.50% to trade at $0.0535.
Bitcoin Price
The current Bitcoin price is $17,332, and the 24-hour trading volume is $19 billion. During the last 24 hours, the BTC/USD pair has gained above 1.5%, while CoinMarketCap currently ranks first with a live market cap of $363 billion, above from $357 billion yesterday.
It has a total supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins and a circulating supply of 19,224,668 BTC coins.
The BTC/USD pair has broken through the $17,250 barrier, breaking through a narrow trading range of $16,800 to $17,250. The RSI and MACD indicators are in a positive territory, and the 50-day moving average is supporting BTC at $16,800.
On the plus side, Bitcoin is approaching the next resistance level of $17,650, and a break above this could expose BTC to $18,000. BTC has formed a bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe, just above an upward trendline level of $17,000.
On the downside, Bitcoin support remains at $17,200, and a break below this level could lead BTC to $17,000 or even lower to the $16,750 level.
Ethereum Price
The current price of Ethereum is $1,296, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.5 billion. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum has surged nearly 2%. CoinMarketCap currently ranks #2, with a live market cap of $158 billion. It has a circulating supply of 122,373,866 ETH coins.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is trading bullish above the $1,250 psychological level, and it is now trading bearish above and below the $1,300 psychological level.
The bullish bias remains strong, as the 50-day moving average is close to $1,250. The RSI and MACD have recently entered the buying zone, indicating a good opportunity to go long.
Increased demand for ETH has the potential to push its price up to the $1,350 resistance level. If ETH fails to close candles above the $1,300 level, the price may fall toward the $1,250 or $1,220 support zones.
Keep an eye on the $1,300 level, which is likely to act as a pivot point today.
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Bitcoin payments are the 'second stupidest idea I’ve heard,' says Late Show’s Stephen Colbert
Stephen Colbert, the charismatic host of CBS’ The Late Show, isn’t holding back his punches or his jokes when it comes to #Bitcoin.
In a segment dubbed “Quarantinewhile,” which features a roundup of amusing news stories for viewers to watch while stuck inside, Colbert referenced a recent report from Vice in which hackers took control of internet-connected chastity cages — devices worn by men to prevent them from engaging in any sort of sexual activity — and demanded Bitcoin (BTC) to unlock them.
“Getting paid in Bitcoin? That’s the second stupidest idea I’ve heard,” said Colbert with a chuckle, implying the first would be:
“Apparently these people hooked up their dong cages to the net and then they got hacked [...] Of course this is going to happen — it’s one thing to give control of your deprivation box to a loved one, but it’s quite a leap of faith to say: let’s put my junk up in the cloud.”
Colbert was one of the few late night talk show hosts to do a mainstream segment on cryptocurrency back in April 2013 when the price of Bitcoin was fluctuating between $50-300. At the time, the then Colbert Report host seemingly agreed with Wall Street analyst Nick Colas’ assessment of the cryptocurrency, calling it “gold for nerds.”
“Bitcoin joins a rich tradition of made up currencies like Camel Cash and the Euro,” said Colbert. “Bitcoin has worth just because a bunch of people on the Internet have agreed that it is worth something.”
“If you don’t know what Bitcoin is… wanna buy some Bitcoin? No? You sure?”
At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is $39,350, having risen more than 40,000% since that segment was broadcast eight years ago.
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XRP price fails to ignite recovery as SEC enforcement director leaves post
The #XRP (XRP) price remained relatively unmoved on Thursday, Jan. 14, even as the broader cryptocurrency market ignited a recovery that saw over $150 billion flood back into the global market cap.
Earlier this week the United States Securities and Exchange Commission announced the impending departure of Marc P. Berger, the commission’s Acting Director of the Division of Enforcement. The outgoing director was in office for the commencement of the SEC's $1.3 billion lawsuit against Ripple Labs.
Berger leaves his position at the end of the month after just five months in the post. He had previously led the New York Regional Office as director since 2017, before being appointed to the enforcement division in August 2020.
The official announcement posted to the SEC website on Jan. 12 notes the departing director oversaw enforcement actions against numerous companies and corporate entities relating to a plethora of financial crimes and misconduct.
These include Telegram Group Inc, which was ordered to pay back over $1.2 billion to investors following what was deemed to be an illegal token sale. Berger was in office for the commencement of the recent Ripple lawsuit saga, where the CEOs of Ripple Labs are accused of holding an unregistered $1.3 billion securities offering. The case will continue in Berger’s absence, with a pretrial date set for February.
Berger also brought actions against JP Morgan and Robinhood for market misconduct, as well as Deutsche Bank AG, Herbalife and Stryker Corp for violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
Following XRP’s 76% price collapse throughout December 2020, the coin managed to claw back 68% of its value, but the coin’s current valuation of $0.29 remains some way off a recent November high of $0.78.
The coin price remained relatively stable on Thursday despite the general direction taken by the rest of the market. The current XRP price of $0.295150 is 1.3% lower than that recorded 24 hours earlier and leaves XRP with a market cap in the region of $13 billion.
Following Polkadot’s (DOT) 30% surge earlier on Thursday morning which pushed it into the fifth spot by market capitalization, another spike of similar magnitude would see XRP displaced from fourth place.
The #Bitcoin (BTC) price returned above the $38,000 range during Thursday’s recovery rally, while #Ether (ETH) gained 11.4% to return the coin price to the $1,170 range.
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ETH/USD
The bulls aggressively purchased Ether (ETH) during the dip below the 20-day EMA ($982) on Jan. 11 but they could not sustain the recovery on Jan. 12, suggesting that demand dries up at higher levels.
However, the positive sign is that the bulls again bought the dip to the 20-day EMA today. The buyers will now try to push the price above $1,150 and if they succeed, the ETH/USD pair may rise to $2,100. A breakout of this resistance may resume the uptrend.
On the contrary, if the pair turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the decline could extend to $980.80 and then to the 50-day SMA. A break below this support will signal that the bears are back in the game.
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Survey: 25% of crypto users not securing assets as well as they think
#Cryptocurrency hardware wallet manufacturer Ngrave released the initial results of its ongoing crypto security survey on Jan. 13.
The results give a number of insights into the current state of security in the digital asset space and show that a full quarter of users perceive their current security measures to be more effective than they actually are.
The survey has so far been completed by over 1,400 crypto users from 78 countries around the world. Despite efforts to push for inclusion in the space, 90% of respondents were male and over 60% fell within the 25–45 age bracket.
Of those surveyed, 62% held at least some of their cryptocurrency on an exchange, with one in three holding over 40% of their assets on a single exchange.
The vast majority (96%) of those holding assets on exchanges use some form of two-factor authentication, or 2FA. However, one in four do not make a backup of their 2FA code.
Additionally, almost half of respondents back up their exchange login credentials either online or inconsistently. Furthermore, 44% of exchange users do not whitelist withdrawal addresses.
Two-thirds of those surveyed use a hardware wallet, with three quarters of these being USB devices. 87% of hardware wallet users perform test transactions before making large withdrawals.
However, 67% of hardware wallet users keep their backup on a paper wallet, and over half confirmed that their private keys would be compromised if someone found the backup.
Alongside its hardware wallet, Ngrave produces the Graphene, which is a method for keeping a wallet backup key engraved on a pair of steel plates, which are both required in order to recover the key.
The survey is still available for those who want to perform an audit on their own cryptocurrency security and gives actionable tips to improve safety measures employed.
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'Thankfully' my son owns Bitcoin, says $140B asset management CEO
#Bitcoin (BTC) at $34,000 may have gained a new convert after billionaire investor Howard Marks admitted that he needed to change his "skeptical view."
In his latest investor memo dated Jan. 11, Marks, who is co-chairman and co-founder of the $140 billion Oaktree Capital Group, noted that while he was critical of Bitcoin during its 2017 bull run, his son had "thankfully" bought in.
Marks on crypto: Do your own research
"Back in 2017, my memo 'There They Go Again... Again' included a section on cryptocurrencies in which I stated a high level of skepticism. This view has been a subject of much discussion for me and Andrew, who is quite positive on Bitcoin and several others and thankfully owns a meaningful amount for our family," the memo reads.
"While the story is far from fully written, the least I can say is that my skeptical view has not borne out to date."
The past few months has become a notable for U-turns on Bitcoin's merits. As Cointelegraph reported, figures from investors to banks have challenged their bearish prognoses on the cryptocurrency, some even pledging to expose their portfolios to include it.
Marks did not make a similar commitment, but accepted the need to at least examine cryptocurrency and assess its potential.
"The nature of innovation generally is such that, in the beginning, only a few believe in something that seems absurd when compared to the deeply entrenched status quo," he wrote.
"When innovations work, it's only later that what first seemed crazy becomes consensus. Without attaining real knowledge of what's going on and attempting to fully understand the positive case, it's impossible to have a sufficiently informed view to warrant the dismissiveness that many of us exhibit in the face of innovation."
Warren Buffett next?
Reactions to Marks were nonetheless more than favorable, given his previous reputation as a steadfast Bitcoin detractor.
"Really awesome to see billionaire Howard Marks talking so favorably about #Bitcoin!" Preston Pysh of The Investor's Podcast Network tweeted in response to the memo.
Fellow investment guru Lyn Alden, herself a public proponent of Bitcoin, even suggested that Mark's change in stance would lead stalwart critic Warren Buffett to cryptocurrency.
2021 thus leaves Bitcoin's remaining outspoken bears in an rapidly decreasing minority. Among them remains gold bug Peter Schiff, whose outright dismissal of Bitcoin continues to cause outrage on social media and beyond.
"Very few institutional investors are buying #Bitcoin," he claimed on Monda.
"It just that those few that are buying are extremely vocal about their positions. They need to convince others to buy to push up the price so they can sell. The financial media also gives them a platform to talk their books."
Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of exchange Gemini, subsequently called Schiff's words "completely false."
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Bitcoin Price and Ethereum Halt Downtrend; Can BTC Rally to $17,500 Today?
Top Altcoin Gainers and Losers
Trust Wallet Token (TWT), MultiversX (EGLD), and Holo (HOT) are three of the top 100 coins that have gained value in the last 24 hours. TWT's price has risen nearly 5% to $2.40; EGLD's price has risen more than 4.5% to $45.28; HOT's price has risen nearly 4.5%.
Celo (CELO), Aptos (APT), and Kava (KAVA) are three of the top 100 coins that have lost value in the last 24 hours. Whereas CELO has lost about 4.70% to trade at $0.6185, APT is down nearly 4% to trade at $4.90. At the same time, the KAVA price is down over 4.8% to trade at $0.8635.
Billionaire Tim Draper Predicts BTC Price Increase to $250,000 Next Year
Tim Draper, the founder of Draper Associates and one of Silicon Valley's most prominent financiers, has reiterated his $250,000 Bitcoin ($BTC) price prediction, claiming the cryptocurrency will reach that number by June of next year.
CNBC reports that despite the bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Draper still expects the flagship cryptocurrency to climb by over 1,400% in less than a year.
According to his statement, the $250,000 forecast was pushed out from its initial date of late 2022 or early 2023 by six months.
Bitcoin Price
The current Bitcoin price is $17,012, and the 24-hour trading volume is $19 billion. During the last 24 hours, the BTC/USD pair has lost nearly 2%, while CoinMarketCap currently ranks first with a live market cap of $357 billion.
Given the ongoing risk-off sentiment and strong US dollar, the BTC/USD pair fell from $17,385 to give up most of its gains. It is now gaining immediate support at $16,900, which is being extended by a 4-hour timeframe upward trendline.
If BTC can consolidate above $17,000, there is a chance of a bullish reversal. On the upside, Bitcoin may encounter resistance at $17,385; a bullish breakout above this level may allow for additional buying up to $17,650 or $18,000.
A break below the $16,840 support level, on the other hand, could extend the selling trend all the way to the $16,500 level.
Ethereum Price
The current price of Ethereum is $1,261, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5 billion. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum is mostly unchanged on Wednesday, gaining less than 0.50%. CoinMarketCap currently ranks #2, with a live market cap of $154 billion.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum has fallen to the previous support area of $1,250, and a candle closing above this level has the potential to drive a rebound. On the plus side, ETH has the potential to break through the $1,300 resistance level.
As the 50-day moving average approaches $1,250, the bullish bias remains strong.
In contrast, the RSI and MACD have recently entered the selling zone, indicating a selling trend in ETH. However, it looks like a bearish correction, and bulls will remain optimistic until $1,250 is reached.
Increased selling pressure may result in a bearish breakout, allowing for additional selling until the $1,220 or $1,185 levels are reached.
Today, keep an eye on $1,250 as it is likely to act as a major pivot point.
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Bitcoin on-chain data shows 5 reasons why the BTC bottom could be in
After a whirlwind November for Bitcoin certain on-chain and Bitcoin price metrics are suggesting that BTC’s bottom could occur in December. In Capriole Investments' latest report, they provide analysis on Bitcoin finding the bottom. When taking into realized value, miner capitulation, mining electrical costs, downdraw and record hodler numbers, a BTC floor of $16,600 - $16,950 seems formed.
Here are five reasons why Edwards believes Bitcoin price is coming closer to a cycle bottom.
SLRV Ribbons flash a buy signal
The SLRV Ribbons track investment flows by combining the 30-day and 150-day moving averages to the SLRV Ratio which is a percentage of the Bitcoin moved in 24 hours divided by BTC held for 6-12 months.
According to Charles Edwards, the SLRV Ribbons outperform the BTC HODL strategy, making it a strong indicator of where BTC price might be headed.
While the SLRV Ribbons have been bearish throughout 2022, the recent move to $16,600 flipped the indicator to bullish. According to Edwards, the change creates a buy signal for investors and institutional funds still in the market, thus building a strong case for Bitcoin’s price floor.
BTC price slips under its global electrical cost
While it is well known that a large swath of Bitcoin miners are currently operating at a loss, this is not a rare phenomenon throughout BTC’s history.
Bitcoin miners’ total production cost includes mining hardware, operational costs, capital costs, variable-rate power contracts and other factors, whereas the electrical cost considers only the raw electricity used to mine BTC.
The raw electrical cost has historically been a Bitcoin floor because it is rare for BTC to trade below this price point. Historically, Bitcoin has only traded below the electrical cost four times, the most recent being Nov. 10 when Bitcoin’s electrical cost hit $16,925.
BTC miner selling hits a peak
Miners are still losing money with production costs above the spot price of Bitcoin. This dichotomy forces miners to sell Bitcoin to stay afloat.
The current level of Bitcoin miner selling is the third largest in history, with the other two events happening when BTC was $2.10 in 2011 and $290 in 2015.
In hindsight, investors would love to have those prices back and Edward’s suggests that the current BTC price may represent a similar value.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons confirm another miner capitulation
Bitcoin miner capitulation involves miners turning off their ASICs which are no longer profitable, and selling portions of their Bitcoin reserves to cover expenses.
According to Capriole Investments, during miner capitulations, a floor price forms before the hash rate starts to improve. As noted in the chart below, another miner capitulation occurred on Nov. 28 and if the analysis is correct, this would put Bitcoin’s bottom at around $16,915 since the hash rate has begun rising after the Nov. 28 date.
All-time high Bitcoin hodling despite a historic price drawdown
One metric used to analyze Bitcoin hodler behavior is the Long-term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) tracker.
Throughout Bitcoin’s history, the NUPL metric has only shown such a large downdraw on four occasions.
The previous occasions that witnessed such large downdraws represented value Bitcoin purchases for investors. Edwards suggests that if investors view BTC price as undervalued, their choice to accumulate could further solidify Bitcoin’s floor.
Another trend is forming as the long-term hodlers metric hits peak numbers. Currently, 66% of Bitcoin’s supply is in the hands of long-term hodlers, meaning they have held their Bitcoin for over one year.
According to Edwards, this behavior is aligned with shifting macro markets.
While the markets are still heavily correlated to equities and vulnerable to macro market shifts, multiple data points hint that Bitcoin could be in the final stages of a bottoming process.
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BTC difficulty drops by the biggest margin since 2021
Tough market conditions continue to affect the Bitcoin ecosystem as mining difficulty drops by its biggest margin since July 2021.
A 7.32% difficulty adjustment took place on Dec. 6 at block height 766,080, marking the sharpest drop in difficulty in over a year. This coincided with a drop in average hashrate from 264.18 EH/s to 245.10 EH/s, according to data from BTC.com.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty automatically adjusts to the amount of hashing power available to the network, essentially controlling the rate at which new Bitcoin blocks are added to the chain to an average of 10 minutes.
The difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, meaning that this latest drop in difficulty will last around two weeks.
The adjustment could be seen as reprieve for Bitcoin miners that have had to endure a tumultuous 2022 which has left some small and large operators with no choice but to shut-up shop.
As previously, the third quarter of this year saw increased cost to produce new BTC coincided with dropping value of the preeminent cryptocurrency. Rising energy costs dug further into miner profit margins in the U.S. and Europe, leading some operations to shut down.
The revenue of Bitcoin miners fell to two-year lows at the end of November, exacerbated by poor cryptocurrency market performance and heavier computational demands. This eventually led to capitulation of some mining operations which has led to a recent drop in hash rates which accounts for the latest difficulty adjustment.
Bitcoin mining analyst Jaran Mellerud shared his thoughts in a Twitter thread on Dec. 3, highlighting that the most recent drop in hashrate is most likely due increasing electricity prices:
“Many miners operate close to cash flow break-even and will be forced to turn off their machines if market conditions worsen.”
Mellerud also argued that significant increases in hashrate up until Q2 2023 could be expected if the price of Bitcoin rises through the end of the year.
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Bitcoin price recovery possible after record realized losses and leverage flush out create a healthier market
Bitcoin price is showing notable resilience at the $17,000 level, and according to data from Glassnode, a number of metrics that track the pace of selling and the on-chain behavior of investors are beginning to show a reduction in the factors that trigger sharp sell-offs.
The FTX bankruptcy fueled a historic sell-off resulting in $4.4 billion in realized Bitcoin losses. By analyzing realized losses with the daily weighted average metric, Glassnode analysts found that the on-chain losses are subsiding.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin hit an all-time low in the realized profits versus losses ratio. Toward the end of the most recent bull market, realized losses were 14 times larger than profits, which historically coincided with a positive market shift.
The on-chain data also shows realized losses are declining and Bitcoin price is above the balanced price and realized cap is dropping, removing excess liquidity generated from over-leveraged entities.
Realized cap suggests excess liquidity is drained
The realized cap is the net sum of Bitcoin capital inflows and outflows since BTC’s launch.
The current realized cap is 2.6% higher than the May 2021 peak, suggesting that Bitcoin’s all-time high has retraced and all excess liquidity from bad debt and over-leveraged entities has been drained from the market.
In the past, as bad debt was removed from the ecosystem, a launch pad for future bull markets was established.
According to the analysts:
“The 2010-11 realized cap saw a net capital outflow equivalent to 24% of the peak. The 2014-15 realized cap experienced the lowest, yet non-trivial capital outflow of 14%. The 2017-18 recorded a 16.5% decline in realized cap, the closest to the current cycle of 17.0%. By this measure, the current cycle has seen the third largest relative outflow of capital, and has now eclipsed the 2018 cycle, which is arguably the most relevant mature market analogue.”
Balanced price and delta price are algorithmic analyses used to revisit previous bear cycles. In previous bear cycles, Bitcoin’s price has traded between the balanced price and the delta price 3.0% of the time.
The current balanced price range is between $12,000 and $15,500 with the current delta price concentrating between $18,700 to $22,900. Concurrent with previous bear markets, Bitcoin’s price is above the balanced price, finding support at $15,500.
While a market bottom has yet to be found, and a handful of potential downside catalysts remain, on-chain analysis is showing that the sentiment of market participants is slowly shifting out of bearish extremes, with the peak of realized losses and forced selling seemingly concluded.
A tighter view of Bitcoin holders' acquisition cost will also make anticipating reactions to possible upcoming volatility easier. A large amount of excess liquidity has dissipated, possibly creating a firmer price floor for a sustainable BTC price recovery.
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Ethereum Price Prediction as ETH Spikes Up 10% in 7 Days – Here’s Where It’s Headed Next
Price Prediction: ETH Primed For Short-term Upside
Ether has formed an ascending triangle in the last few weeks and looks to be on the verge of a short-term break to the upside. ETH/USD has been supported by an uptrend since the 22nd of November, but in the last few days, it has been unable to get sustainably above $1,300. Price formations such as these are often considered precursors to a bullish breakout and, as such, price predictions have been getting more bullish.
If ETH/USD does break to the upside, the first target will be the 50DMA at $1,334, then the 100DMA at $1,383, then the 200DMA at $1,457. If Ether can get above its 200DMA, which will be a tough ask, as the level has been a key area of technical resistance in 2022, it may be able to test the top of a downward trend channel that has been capping the price action since the summer of 2022.
Ether Headed Back To Summer Highs Above $2,000?
Should Ether manage a break above this bearish trend channel, that sets the stage for a test of recent highs in the $1,600s and a potential longer-term bullish pushback towards summer’s peak pre-“merge” optimism highs above $2,000 Such a move is possible should macro conditions continue to improve (i.e. further moderation in the interest rate outlook) and should crypto sentiment continue to recover (i.e. Decentralized Finance starts to enjoy substantial inflows once again).
Not everyone is bullish though. Standard Chartered warned in a recent note that Bitcoin's price could drop as much as 70% in 2023. That would surely also hurt Ethereum badly.
Vitalik Buterin’s Latest Advice
To those growing tired of seemingly ever-lasting crypto bear markets, endless bot armies and scammers and fraudsters, Vitalik Buterin has some advice. An account by the name of @CoinMamba commented on Saturday that “After 9 years in crypto I’m kinda exhausted. I want to move on and do something different with my life. Tired of all these scammers and fraudsters…”.
In reply, Buterin recommended CoinMamba to increase "your distance from trading/investing circles", and to get "closer to the tech and application ecosystem”. He advised CoinMamba to “Learn about ZK-SNARKs, visit a meetup in Latin America, listen to All Core Devs calls and read the notes until you've memorized all the EIP numbers…”.
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After Ethereum, 'next stop will be higher risk alts,' says Bitcoin investor Raoul Pal
As the #cryptocurrency market is showing signs of bullish continuation on Jan. 15, Raoul Pal, the CEO of Real Vision Group and an avid #Bitcoin (BTC) investor, is optimistic about the price of #Ether (ETH). Pal also says he's looking to add “higher risk alts.”
Is an altseason coming?
Following Bitcoin’s rally above $42,000, many alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, have indeed performed strongly, which is historically in line with altcoins performing well in Q1.
The rally of altcoins has in part been led by the momentum of Ethereum. After ETH surpassed a major resistance level at $600, it continued to rally above $1,000.
ETH is now close to reaching its all-time high above $1,400, rising 60% in the first two weeks of 2021. Pal wrote:
“By the way, ETH is up 60% in the first 14 days of the year. I think it outperforms all year but I still own much more BTC but have been adding to ETH. Next stop will be higher risk alts.... but much much smaller. More risk = smaller size.”
Possibly due to the improving market sentiment around ETH, altcoins have also performed particularly well in the past week.
As reported, large-cap altcoins, such as Polkadot (DOT) and Cosmos (ATOM) have seen large gains against both Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar so far in January.
At the same time, decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens, such as Aave, Yearn.finance, and SushiSwap heavily outperformed both Bitcoin and Ether in the last two weeks with data confirming a continuous rise in sentiment and social media activity in recent months.
Meanwhile, the uptrend of DOT and ATOM could be driven by the frenzy around DeFi tokens, considering that the demand for alternative blockchain networks has increased.
The Ethereum blockchain network has become increasingly congested as of late, as the user activity on DeFi protocols significantly rose to push up fees in the process.
BTC vs. ETH (orange), DOT (blue), AAVE (yellow), YFI (purple) year-to-date. Source: Tradingview
Protocols like Aave, SushiSwap, and Synthetix saw rapid growth since November, propelling Aave and Synthetix to billion-dollar market caps.
Wangarian, a capital allocator at the DeFi-focused fund Defiance Capital, told Pal:
“In all seriousness, Decentralised Finance will blow your mind if you confront the negative bias associated with altcoins. High quality ones: $AAVE $SNX $UNI $YFI.”
What’s next for ETH and altcoins?
On Jan. 7, in a tweet thread, Pal said that he believes Ether could achieve $10,000 to $20,000, if it follows the same cycle as Bitcoin.
Pal pinpointed Metcalfe’s law, which states the effect of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system, to support a bull case for Ether. He wrote:
“Ooops... ETH looks just like BTC - Metcalfe's Law seems to be the key to price for both ETH And BTC… But ETH market cap is growing faster than BTC at the same point ( from first 1m active addresses). ‘Oh shit, really? Is ETH identical in price structure to BTC when it had same number of active addresses?? But, but ,I thought it was a worthless shitcoin???.’”
Although there is no specific correlation between Ether and the rest of the altcoin market, if Ether grows to a trillion-dollar blockchain protocol, major projects developed on top of Ethereum could grow proportionally.
Most notably, DeFi tokens would likely benefit the most from Ethereum’s network effect and rapid growth if it grows at the pace of Bitcoin in 2016.
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Ethereum eyes new all-time high after bears unable to sink ETH below $900
#Bitcoin’s (BTC) price saw a significant 28% correction during the week from $41,000 to $30,000. At the same time, #Ether (ETH) also saw a drop of 32%. The recent high for ETH/USD was $1,350 — or about $70 shy of the all-time high — while the recent low was seen at $910.
January has seen heavy volatility in the crypto markets. The sentiment has been flipping from euphoria to depression and back again. However, the market is still in a bull market even if another correction occurs.
In that regard, it’s just a matter of time until a new all-time high is made for Ether, following Bitcoin's footsteps.
Healthy correction for ETH
Ether corrected to the first level of interest at the 0.35–0.382 Fibonacci level. Traders often use this Fibonacci level to anticipate corrections.
Frequently, corrections only occur at the 0.35–0.382 Fibonacci level or the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
This happened in ETH's case, as the $850 to $925 area is confluent with a previous resistance point. This resistance point is found in 2018 during the multimonth rally from $350 to $900. This slight run-up became the final bounce before the market reversed south.
But now, the $900 region has flipped support, which means that more upside likely. As often stated, if an asset drops by 30% in an uptrend, it may be worth looking into.
Levels to watch after all-time high is broken
If the correction has ended, continuation is likely to occur with a new impulse wave. In that regard, ETH/USD would be looking at new highs, which can also be determined using the Fibonacci extension tool.
Critical for continuation would be a breakout above the recent high at $1,350. Personally, I’d expect to see some more consolidation before continuation, but a new impulse wave is definitely on the table.
If such a continuation of the impulse wave occurs, the next targets are found at the recent all-time high of 2017 (around $1,420), but also at $1,600 to $1,650 and $2,050 to $2,100. The latter targets are constructed using the Fibonacci extension tool.
Lower time frames are still showing a range-bound construction. It’s arguable that the momentum is very volatile, and the markets are fluctuating by double-digit percentage points on a daily basis.
However, the range-high resistance is found at $1,225 to $1,275, and that has to break to continue the bullish momentum.
If not, Ether will most likely see sideways action. In that regard, a retest of the $900 area is still on the table. In the previous week, the market sentiment turned to fear very fast. Thus, one rejection at the next major resistance and the market may see another correction.
The strength will come from ETH/BTC pair later in the year
Slowly but surely, altcoin-BTC pairs should catch up, but Bitcoin must stabilize for that to happen.
Currently, ETH/BTC is making higher lows and flipping previous resistance levels for support. This flip also happened with the 0.025 sats level and served as a signal for more upside. As the ETH/BTC chart shows, compression is building up, suggesting that a big move is brewing.
Most likely, it will take some time and should be expected later in 2021. But once the BTC pair starts to accelerate, Ether could reach as high as 0.056 to 0.08 sats. This would also mean new all-time highs in U.S. dollar terms, of course.
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Is a new rally brewing as Bitcoin reclaims $38K and stablecoins 'flooding' exchanges?
The price of #Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its recovery on Jan. 14, reclaiming the $38,000 level. What's more, the weekly candle has now turned green for the fifth consecutive week despite the 28% crash earlier this week.
Meanwhile, stablecoin deposits are flooding into cryptocurrency exchanges, according to data from CryptoQuant. This inflow may act as a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin as it suggests that sidelined capital is moving back into #BTC.
Why are stablecoins indicative of strong buyer demand for Bitcoin?
In the cryptocurrency market, many traders sell crypto assets, like Bitcoin, to stablecoins rather than cash.
Stablecoins, such as %Tether (USDT), is pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar and are tradable across exchanges.
Most exchanges require a complicated Know Your Customer (KYC) verification process for bank transfers, and cash deposits into exchanges could take a long time.
As such, if a whale or a high-net-worth investor wants to buy and sell millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, stablecoins can be far more convenient than cash.
The high demand for stablecoins from traders has led the valuation of Tether to increase in recent months. Last month, the market cap of Tether surpassed $20 billion. A month later, this number is already above $24 billion, indicating a rise in sidelined capital within the cryptocurrency market.
Dry powder moving to exchanges
Meanwhile, stablecoin deposits into exchanges have increased substantially over the past 24 hours. CryptoQuant tracks the wallets of exchanges and observes stablecoin deposits and outflows.
Across major exchanges, stablecoin deposits spiked noticeably on Jan. 13, right as the price of Bitcoin began to recover.
On Jan. 13, the price of Bitcoin dropped to as low as $32,500 after nearly $1 billion worth of futures contracts were liquidated.
Investors were actively buying the dip, as shown by the increase in stablecoin deposits and the increasing open interest of the Bitcoin futures market. As a result, Bitcoin saw a quick turnaround, rallying by more than 10% overnight.
So what comes next?
Alex Saunders, a cryptocurrency analyst, said that stablecoins are “flooding exchanges,” which is often indicative of a bullish trend.
Prior to the recovery, Michael van de Poppe, a full-time trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, said an all-time high is likely for Bitcoin if it surpasses $38,000 again.
Overnight, the price of Bitcoin pierced through the $38,000 resistance area, which Van de Poppe pinpointed. Hence, in the short term, BTC is on track to retest its record-high. He said:
“Bitcoin didn't change much. It flipped the $33,000 level for support and therefore is eager to test the $37,000-38,000 level. That one needs to flip. If it does, we'll be eager for new all-time highs. If not, more consolidation likely.”
Bitcoin’s rally also coincides with the opening of Grayscale’s products on Jan. 13. If the value of Bitcoin continues to rise, it could propel more institutional and accredited investors to obtain exposure to BTC through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
There is also a strong argument to be made that the reopening of GBTC kickstarted the rally, to begin with, signifying that the uptrend is led by institutions, not by retail investors.
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Bitcoin price rally to $37,850, signals that bulls intend to reclaim $40K
#Bitcoin (BTC) price broke through the $35,000 resistance and appears to be stepping into a new range that would see the price trade between $38,000 to $40,000. Today’s recovery from the $34,000 level also appers to have invalidated what looked to be a bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on the 4-hour timeframe.
Reclaiming the $36,000 level as support may also assist with squashing the infantile narrative that Bitcoin price was entering a new bear market after this week’s 26.5% plunge shaved off $200 billion from the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.
Despite this plunge, financial advisers continue to develop a more positive outlook on the top cryptocurrency as well as the growing DeFi sector.
The recent announcement from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) allowing banks to transact and custody stablecoins is being interpreted as a green light by the sector as a whole.
Proof of this comes today as custody provider Anchorage was just granted the first digital bank charter by the OCC. According to outgoing OCC chief Brian Brooks, the online future for finance is inevitable.
DeFi and altcoins show strength
The current market conditions continue to mirror the trend of previous cycles where Bitcoin price corrects sharply then consolidates after experiencing a period of parabolic growth.
During these consolidation phases traders tend to shift funds into altcoins and today’s increased volume and rallies from a number of altcoins re-enforces this theory.
As Bitcoin spent the early part of the day trading between $32,000 and $35,000 #Ether (ETH) pushed higher, gaining 3.96% to trade at $1,120 at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, Polkadot (DOT) was the breakout coin of the day, up 36.89% and trading near $11.30. Its sister chain Kusama (KSM) also received a boost in price as it rallied 21.25% to trade at $77.59
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $983.5 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 68.7%.
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Another $1 billion wipeout: Why is Bitcoin seeing extreme price moves?
Nearly $1 billion worth of #Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts were liquidated on Jan. 13, a day after the big shakeout. The continuous loop of liquidations is causing extreme volatility and large price swings in the cryptocurrency market.
What are futures liquidations, and why are so many Bitcoin positions being liquidated?
In the Bitcoin futures market, traders borrow additional capital to bet against or for Bitcoin. The technical term for this is leverage, and when traders use high leverage, the liquidation threshold gets tighter.
For example, if a trader borrows 10 times the initial capital, a 10% price move to the opposite direction would cause the position to be liquidated. Once it is liquidated, the position becomes worthless and all of the initial capital is lost.
When Bitcoin saw the big 20% drop from $41,000 to $30,500 on Jan. 12, nearly $2 billion worth of futures contracts were liquidated.
However, within 24 hours, another $1 billion worth of contracts were liquidated. Yet, there were no large price swings other than the range between $32,000 and $35,500.
The data indicates that many traders have been overleveraging their positions to short BTC after it recovered from $30,500. Hence, as Bitcoin rallied to $35,500, many short contracts were liquidated.
The cascading liquidations of short contracts are most likely the main reason behind #BTC’s swift 20% relief rally from $30,500 to $35,500.
The market is less leveraged compared with the past two weeks. The futures funding rate is moving in between 0.01% and 0.05%, which means buyers still represent the majority of the market but are not dominating the market.
By comparison, when Bitcoin was above $40,000, the futures funding rate consistently remained at around 0.1% to 0.15%. This meant that the market was overwhelmed by buyers and overleveraged traders.
“Healthy” shakeout
Although extreme volatility is not favorable, the shakeout of an overleveraged market is healthy and essential for the continuation of the rally.
If the Bitcoin market remains extremely overleveraged while rallying above $40,000, it risks a much larger correction than 25%.
In previous bull markets, Bitcoin frequently saw 30% to 40% pullbacks, and as such, the recent drop from $42,000 to nearly $30,000 is nothing out of the ordinary for a BTC bull market.
Additionally, as the pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” noted, the $30,000 area has become a major support level.
The Bitcoin futures market cooling down while solidifying $30,000 as a support area is highly optimistic for the medium-term prospect of BTC.
Whale clusters also identify the $30,000 level as a whale cluster support, which means that this psychological level will certainly be defended by the bulls if the price turns south.
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Ethereum Nears All-Time-High...but Nobody Knows which Watershed to Aim for
Media coverage of the latest crypto rally has largely focused on bitcoin (BTC)’s performance, with the token smashing all sorts of price records in recent weeks. But this bull market is not all about the BTC – altcoins are also having a field day, particularly bitcoin’s seemingly perpetual bridesmaid ethereum (ETH).
And with ether experiencing growth of over 100% in the past week, per most price aggregators, it looks like ETH is now ready to have its own time in the sun, and break through its all-time high (ATH).
There’s just one problem: Just as was once the case with BTC, nobody seems to quite agree what ETH’s historic ceiling actually is.
It is a discrepancy that even has the mainstream media hedging its bets about the what, whens and whys of ETH’s ATH. In a recent report, CNBC wrote about how ETH was “within reach of an all-time high above USD 1,400 which it reached in mid-January 2018.”
There is some consensus to be found, however (if one looks hard enough!). Both the ETH page on Coinmarketcap and the corresponding data at Coinpaprika agree on a figure of USD 1,432.88. And all six agree that the ATH (whatever it was) was reached on January 13, 2018 – prior to the “bubble bursting” events that saw crypto prices enter a long bear market.
At the time of writing (11:21 UTC), ETH trades at USD 1,192 and is up by almost 3% in a day and 60% in a week. It rallied by 107% in a month and 732% in a year.
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