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4th time’s the charm? Bitcoin tags $68K in attempt to break 217-day downtrend
On October 16, Bitcoin hit a monthly high of $68,400, forming a new higher-high pattern. Following a brief 3.41% correction on October 15, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is showing improved market demand and user activity.
As prices hover near $70,000, analysts are focusing on a key range that could lead to a short-term correction or disrupt the ongoing downtrend. Since reaching an all-time high of $73,881 in March 2024, Bitcoin has been in a 217-day downtrend, forming a descending broadening wedge pattern.
The weekly chart indicates Bitcoin’s fourth attempt to break above this downtrend. A critical price range between $68,300 and $67,300 needs to convert into support to signal a shift. Trader Peter Brandt emphasizes this range, questioning whether Bitcoin can capitalize on this moment.
Independent trader BitQuant suggests that if Bitcoin surpasses $70,000, it may enter a prolonged consolidation phase between $75,000 and $95,000.
Despite potential short-term volatility, on-chain metrics indicate a bullish trend. Since early September, there has been a significant increase in active Bitcoin addresses, reversing a previous downtrend. This rise, surpassing both 30-day and 365-day moving averages, suggests a return of user engagement and demand.
With Bitcoin’s dominance at a three-and-a-half-year high, bullish sentiment is building as October progresses.
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Bitcoin dominance hits 3.5-year high as altcoins get left behind
Bitcoin’s market share has surged to its highest level since April 2021, reaching 58.77% during late trading on October 15. This increase coincided with Bitcoin hitting a ten-week high of $67,800, although it later retraced to $64,880 before stabilizing above $67,000, with a market capitalization of $1.32 trillion.
Historically, rising Bitcoin dominance has spelled trouble for altcoins, as Bitcoin gained 2.5% on the day while many altcoins remained flat or declined. Some traders, however, anticipate that this dominance is temporary, predicting a forthcoming rise in altcoin activity.
ICT Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen suggested that Bitcoin’s dominance could peak at 60%, while “Coach K Crypto” argued it has already peaked for this cycle, stating that Bitcoin “needs to rip” for altcoins to gain traction. Analyst Moataz Elsayed predicted a significant drop in Bitcoin dominance, indicating the potential onset of altcoin season.
Ether, typically one of the first altcoins to respond to a decline in Bitcoin dominance, is currently seeing its ratio to Bitcoin near its lowest point since April 2021.
Since reaching an all-time high of $73,738 in March, Bitcoin has been trading sideways but is nearing the psychological level of $69,000, which it maintained for about three years.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, with eleven US spot exchange-traded funds recording net inflows of $371 million on October 15, contributing to over $1.1 billion in aggregate inflows over the past three trading days.
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Why is the crypto market up today?
On Oct. 15, the crypto market surged as investors reacted positively to mixed responses to China’s stimulus package and a recovery in US equities, fostering optimism for “Uptober.” The total crypto market capitalization rose about 2.2% to $2.3 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ether gaining approximately 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively.
The rally aligns with the strength of US equities, where the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high of 5,871.41 on Oct. 14, up around 2.6% month-to-date. This growth reflects the robust valuations of major US companies. As noted by The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has risen 43% since October 2023, positioning it for one of its best 12-month gains ever.
The excitement around technology and AI stocks, particularly Nvidia, which reached a new all-time high, is likely boosting interest in related cryptocurrencies. Market focus is also shifting to the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on Nov. 6 and 7, where a rate cut is anticipated, although expectations for a more aggressive cut have diminished.
The recovery in the crypto market is also supported by bullish sentiment among spot Bitcoin ETF investors. US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $348.5 million during the week ending Oct. 11 and continued with $555.9 million in inflows on Oct. 14, raising total reserves to $19.4 billion. Additionally, institutional demand for crypto investments surged, with $407 million in inflows recorded recently.
Short liquidations have intensified across derivatives markets, with $136.2 million liquidated in the last 24 hours, indicating that traders betting against the market are being forced to sell as prices rise.
Technically, the overall crypto market is forming a bull flag pattern, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. A daily close above the $2.23 trillion level could signal a breakout, potentially leading to a target of $2.83 trillion, representing a 27% increase from current levels.
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Crypto stocks see price rally as Bitcoin tops $66K
On Oct. 14, publicly traded crypto-related firms in the U.S. experienced significant gains as Bitcoin surged 6% to reach $66,400, its highest price since July 30.
Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) led the day with a 12.72% increase, closing at $10.81 and climbing to $11 in after-hours trading. Coinbase (COIN) followed with an 11.3% gain, reaching $196.35, and also rose to $199.70 after hours. Other miners, such as IREN (IREN), TeraWulf (WULF), and MARA Holdings Inc (MARA), saw gains of 10.21%, 6.65%, and 5.6%, respectively.
Semler Scientific (SMLR), a medical firm that adopted MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin investment strategy, remained flat but rose 4.3% in after-hours trading. Digital payments company Block Inc. gained 2.8%. In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds significant Bitcoin, fell 5.1% to $201.67 but recovered slightly after hours. Core Scientific (CORZ) also declined by 1.9% to $12.97 but made a slight recovery.
The price rally coincided with Bitcoin’s 5.7% increase over the previous 24 hours, prompting speculation about the start of “Uptober,” a historically bullish month. Analyst On-Chain College noted that Bitcoin cleared key support levels, suggesting a potential price breakout.
Dan Tapiero of 10T Holdings indicated Bitcoin is “on the verge” of surpassing $70,000. Uptober has historically led to strong price increases, as seen in nine of the last 11 years. CK Zheng from ZX Squared Capital believes factors like the upcoming halving event and the U.S. election could propel Bitcoin beyond its all-time high of $73,738 in the fourth quarter.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $66,270, still 10.4% below its record high set on March 14.
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Vitalik Buterin sells another $1.6M in memecoins promised for charity
Ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin has sold $1.6 million in memecoins, converting them into Ether for charity donations. The sale included $982,800 worth of Moo Deng (MOODENG), $231,000 of Monsterra (MSTR), and $183,000 of ETHEREUM IS GOOD (EBULL), according to blockchain analytics firm Spot On Chain.
In total, Buterin has now converted $2.78 million in memecoins into Ether, donating $884,000 to various charities over the last nine days. He commended memecoin issuers for their donations but suggested they consider donating directly.
On Oct. 7, Buterin announced he would donate all 10 billion memecoins received to an organization focused on anti-airborne disease technology. Earlier, on Aug. 15, he donated animal-themed memecoins to the Effective Altruism Funds’ Animal Welfare Fund.
His current crypto portfolio still includes $2.4 million in MOODENG tokens, alongside other holdings totaling $700 million. Buterin believes that memecoins can positively impact society by funding vital public projects, although he criticizes celebrity-themed memecoins that primarily benefit celebrities and early investors.
Recently, economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok proposed Buterin for the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, highlighting his contributions to the Ethereum ecosystem and its shift to proof-of-stake.
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BNB DApp volumes down 25% in a week — Will BNB price follow?
BNB, the native token of BNB Chain, gained 4.1% from Oct. 10 to Oct. 11, showing resilience after testing the $555 support level. Despite this, BNB has remained relatively stable since July, outperforming the broader altcoin market, which has seen a 15.6% decline. This performance has solidified BNB as the third-largest cryptocurrency, boasting a $15 billion market capitalization advantage over Solana.
However, BNB Chain’s on-chain activity has declined, with DApp volumes dropping by 25% in the past week, raising concerns about the sustainability of BNB’s price performance. Investors are wary of Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions gaining traction, especially after the launch of the Base network, which offers low-cost integration with Coinbase.
BNB’s value is partially tied to Binance’s exchange services, including exclusive launchpad access and trading fee discounts, potentially reducing BNB’s necessity on its own chain. Still, BNB is widely used across DApps for various functions such as trading and yield farming.
To evaluate the impact of BNB Chain activity on BNB price, it’s important to look at on-chain deposits and network fees. Currently, BNB Chain’s total value locked (TVL) is 8.1 million BNB, showing little change from two months ago, while network fees have fallen to their lowest level in over four years, down 56% from the previous week.
The decline in fees correlates with the drop in DApp volumes, particularly notable underperformers like PancakeSwap and Uniswap. In comparison, Ethereum DApps saw a 9% decrease in volume, while Solana experienced a 15% drop.
The outlook for BNB is further complicated by criticisms of Binance’s listing fees. Arthur Hayes noted that token issuers must hold approximately $5 million worth of BNB and give away a significant percentage of their token supply. This has led to concerns about recent token launches on Binance underperforming, with several experiencing negative price actions.
Ultimately, the future of BNB price is tied to the activity on BNB Chain and broader sentiments about Binance’s services, including its launchpad offerings.
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Uniswap (UNI) books 25% weekly gain leading into Unichain launch
UNI, the governance token of Uniswap, saw significant gains on Oct. 10, posting a 15% daily increase following the launch of its layer-2 network, Unichain. Over the past week, UNI’s price rose 25% and 23% over the last 30 days.
Trading volume surged 418% to $583.2 million, propelling UNI to a market capitalization of $5 billion and the 20th position on CoinMarketCap.
The price surge follows Uniswap Labs’ announcement of Unichain, designed for faster and cheaper transactions, with enhanced interoperability across blockchain networks. Initially, Unichain will feature one-second block times, with plans to reduce this to under 250 milliseconds.
“Unichain will launch with one-second block times and will soon introduce 250ms sub-blocks for instant user experiences,” the company stated. Built on Optimism’s Superchain, Unichain will allow access to liquidity from other layer-2 networks like Coinbase’s Base and Synthetix’s SNAXchain.
Following this announcement, UNI’s price jumped from $7.20 to an intraday high of $8.46 on Oct. 10. The rally also made UNI one of the most liquidated tokens, with over $1.5 million in leveraged positions liquidated, primarily from short positions.
Market intelligence firm CryptoQuant reported a rise in Uniswap’s network activity, with daily transactions increasing from 40 on Oct. 9 to 673 on Oct. 10—an increase of 1,582%. Active addresses also rose by 587%, indicating growing adoption of the Uniswap ecosystem and increasing demand for UNI tokens.
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Bitcoin ‘capitulation incoming’ as liquidity risks sub-$50K BTC price
Bitcoin is at risk of falling to long-term range lows before a potential bullish trend takes over, according to analyst Cole Garner. In his latest analysis on Oct. 10, he warned of “capitulation incoming” for Bitcoin.
Garner noted that while Bitcoin could benefit from global liquidity trends, short-term liquidity is tightening, which may impact BTC price performance. He stated, “Liquidity onchain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming,” emphasizing that this is a common precursor to a bullish phase.
He shared charts, including the Liquid Vision index, which tracks global central bank liquidity. Garner mentioned, “Liquidity onchain starts at its source, the central banks… If China doesn’t ring that bell, Fed or Japan should do the job. But more downside could come first.”
Recent policy shifts from China and the U.S. Federal Reserve have added to uncertainty. China’s recent economic stimulus announcement disappointed traders seeking continued support. Additionally, the supply of major stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) has been declining, prompting Garner to suggest potential range lows below $50,000.
Despite the bearish outlook, he noted, “BUT: we have a higher high in place. Bullish market structure… even at range lows in peak fear—still bullish structure.”
Some market participants still hope for a turnaround in BTC/USD before October ends. There’s speculation that China’s policy changes could lead to increased capital inflows into crypto.
Overall, bullish predictions for Bitcoin persist. Trader Peter Brandt sees BTC/USD reaching $135,000 within the next year if key support levels hold. As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $61,000, down 4% month-to-date.
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BTC price target sees $135K in 2025 — if Bitcoin bulls avoid a 25% dip
Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by next September, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt, unless a significant price drop of 25% derails this forecast. In an update on Oct. 9, Brandt expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future, suggesting that the current period of consolidation below all-time highs may not be significant.
Brandt noted that historically, the latter half of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles yields the most substantial price increases. He described the current price action since March 2024 as a brief pause in an ongoing bullish trend, emphasizing his target of $135,000 by August or September 2025.
However, he cautioned that if Bitcoin were to fall below $48,000—approximately 22% down from its current price—it would invalidate his analysis.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, expressed a similar long-term bullish outlook but with a slightly lower target of $125,000 to $130,000. He acknowledged the uncertain timing for achieving these prices.
Overall, market consensus remains optimistic for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, with 2025 frequently cited as a potential year for reaching a new macro peak. Predictions for future highs vary widely, with some models suggesting a target of $275,000 by the end of next year.
Despite some missed forecasts earlier this year, many analysts are still hopeful, pointing to historical patterns around Bitcoin’s halving events as catalysts for price surges.
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86-year-old to pay $14M after admitting to running crypto Ponzi scheme
An 86-year-old former attorney from California, David Kagel, has been sentenced to five years of probation and ordered to pay nearly $14 million after admitting to orchestrating a multimillion-dollar crypto Ponzi scheme. This judgment was issued by a Las Vegas federal court on Oct. 8, following Kagel’s guilty plea to conspiracy to commit commodity fraud in May.
Kagel, currently in hospice care due to health issues, will serve his probation at a senior facility unless he leaves, in which case he must wear a monitoring device. From December 2017 to June 2022, Kagel and two accomplices deceived victims into investing in a fraudulent cryptocurrency trading scheme, promising high returns with no risk.
Prosecutors revealed that the trio fraudulently promoted investments and secured around $15 million from victims for various cryptocurrency programs. Kagel contributed to the scam by drafting letters on his law firm’s letterhead, which instilled a false sense of trust among investors.
Victims believed they were investing in a legitimate operation using trading bots, with assurances of returning principal and profits ranging from 20% to 100% within 30 days. Kagel falsely claimed to hold 1,000 Bitcoin worth $11 million as collateral for these investments and misrepresented his prior investment experience to gain trust.
In 2023, the California Supreme Court revoked Kagel’s law license due to disciplinary issues, including misappropriating $25,000 in client funds. His alleged accomplices, David Saffron and Vincent Mazzotta, have pleaded not guilty and are set for trial next April.
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ETH users stake 28.9% of supply, signal ‘long-term’ confidence
Almost a third of all Ether is now staked, reflecting long-term interest among tokenholders. As of Oct. 8, onchain data from IntoTheBlock indicates that 28.9% of Ether has been staked, up from 23.8% in January—a 5.1% increase in just ten months. Notably, 15.3% of staked ETH has been held for over three years, signaling strong confidence in Ethereum’s future.
However, despite this rising interest in staking, Ethereum’s price has faced challenges. After peaking above $4,000 on March 12, ETH has dropped approximately 40%, currently hovering around $2,400. Analysts suggest that selling pressure from initial coin offering participants and low demand for spot Ether exchange-traded funds may be contributing factors to this decline.
Between Oct. 1 and Oct. 3, ETH’s price fell by 12% after failing to break the $2,650 resistance level, erasing gains from the previous weeks.
In related news, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for lowering the requirements for solo staking. Currently, investors need 32 ETH—valued at nearly $80,000—to stake independently, which may limit broader participation. Buterin emphasizes the importance of making staking more accessible to encourage wider engagement.
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Bitcoin ‘still the best-performing asset’ after weak Q3: NYDIG
Despite a “seasonally weak” third quarter, Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset of 2024, according to the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG). The cryptocurrency gained just 2.5% in Q3, recovering from a decline in Q2, although it faced substantial selling pressure during this period.
NYDIG’s research head, Greg Cipolaro, noted that Bitcoin’s year-to-date gain stands at 49.2%. Market activity has been largely stagnant, affected by major distributions related to Mt. Gox and Genesis, totaling nearly $13.5 billion, alongside significant sell-offs by U.S. and German governments.
While Bitcoin has underperformed against some assets like precious metals and select equities, it still recorded a 10% gain in September, a typically bearish month. Factors contributing to its performance include strong demand for U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which attracted $4.3 billion in Q3, and increased corporate ownership from firms like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital.
Cipolaro pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks rose during Q3 but remains low enough to offer diversification benefits in multi-asset portfolios. The crypto market saw positive momentum towards the end of the quarter, influenced by political developments, including former President Donald Trump’s support for the crypto sector, and global monetary easing.
Looking ahead to Q4, Cipolaro believes that the upcoming U.S. election could significantly impact market performance. He anticipates larger gains if Trump wins, citing his strong endorsement of the crypto industry. Historically, Q4 has been bullish for Bitcoin, and Cipolaro encourages patience, noting that current trading levels mirror previous cycles.
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BTC short-term holders ‘likely taking on more risk’ as realized cap drops by $6B
As Q4 2024 begins, short-term holders of Bitcoin are showing increased bullishness despite a slow start to October. Over the past week, the realized capitalization of these holders has surged by $6 billion.
According to CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, short-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days—are likely “taking on more risk or increasing their buying positions.” The realized cap shifted from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, indicating a significant rise in their collective Bitcoin value. This uptick suggests growing confidence among short-term holders as the market transitions between quarters.
However, the data also reveals that long-term holders, who keep their coins for at least 155 days, have seen a $6 billion decline in their realized cap during the same period. This drop implies that long-term investors may be taking profits or reducing their positions.
Opinions among analysts are mixed regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory this month. Historically, October has been strong for Bitcoin, yet some traders express caution. Pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital noted potential signs of a short-term dip in an Oct. 5 post.
Conversely, other analysts maintain a bullish outlook. Trader Mags emphasized that while short-term movements attract attention, the three-month chart appears very positive, having closed above the 2021 all-time highs.
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LEGO removes crypto scam from homepage after being hacked: Report
Toy manufacturer LEGO Group reportedly removed a "LEGO Coin" token scam from its homepage after being hacked on Oct. 5. The scam, noticed by LEGO enthusiast “ZTBricks,” promised “secret rewards” to those who bought LEGO Coin. Clicking the “Buy Now” button led users to a phishing site.
LEGO has not commented publicly but confirmed to Engadget that the scam briefly appeared on the homepage and no user accounts were compromised. The message and link have since been removed.
A moderator of the “lego” subreddit reported that the scam was on LEGO’s homepage for about 75 minutes. The incident occurred at 3 a.m. in Billund, Denmark, where LEGO’s main office is located.
In 2021, LEGO hinted at entering the NFT space, though it later removed the post. In 2022, LEGO’s parent company KIRKBI invested $1 billion in Epic Games to accelerate Metaverse plans.
In Q3 2024, cryptocurrency scammers stole $127 million, including $46 million in September, according to Scam Sniffer.
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'Quantile Regression' Bitcoin price model hints at $275K BTC by November 2025
Bitcoin's price dropped 3.45% on Sept. 30, missing a bullish monthly engulfing candle for the first time since January 2023. Despite this, a year-long bull flag remains intact, signaling a potential breakout if BTC closes above $68,000-$70,000 on the monthly chart.
Bitcoin cycle top could be $275K in November 2025: Researcher
Bitcoin researcher Smithson With has introduced a quantile regression model to predict Bitcoin's cycle top. This method uses cumulative BTC data, including supply, volatility, and survivability, to study returns. Unlike linear regression, quantile regression focuses on extremes, specifically the 99th percentile, offering deeper insights.
According to With, the model, based on Bitcoin price data since July 2013, indicates a quasi-exponential decay trend, where deviations from the trend either halve or double over time. With expects a cycle top around November 2025, predicting a price of up to $275,000. Further analysis might refine this target to between $250,000 and $300,000.
Key BTC price support remains at $63.2K
After dipping to $62,825 on Sept. 30, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $64,000. Luckshury, lead at Exocharts, notes that if Bitcoin maintains support at $63,200, its uptrend could continue. This level is the point-of-control (POC) based on recent trading activity. A move above $64,700 would signal further bullish momentum, while falling below $63,200 could lead to a correction.
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Bitcoin profit-taking nears $74K peak as speculators send Binance $500M
Bitcoin speculators are actively taking profits as the price surges, bringing the market to three-month highs. Data from Glassnode indicates that short-term holders (STHs), those who have held BTC for 155 days or less, are capitalizing on the recent price increase above $65,000.
On October 14, STH wallets transferred 7,127 BTC (approximately $480 million) to Binance, marking the largest inflow since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,800 in March. Overall, daily inflows across major exchanges are among the highest seen since early June.
Glassnode reports that STHs currently enjoy a profit dominance, with a Profit/Loss Ratio of 1.2, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment.
Despite this, Bitcoin investor sentiment remains unstable, with modest volatility leading to significant market shifts. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales have accumulated 1.5 million BTC in recent months, even as overall demand has decreased since March.
Glassnode warns of a growing divergence between supply and demand, which could lead to heightened volatility. The firm emphasizes that historical instances of tight supply often precede significant market movements.
The analysis also confirms that STHs are experiencing low unrealized losses, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook among newer investors.
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Bitcoin traders brace for new highs after BTC rally to $68K
Bitcoin is on track for its highest daily close since July 31 after reaching an intra-day high of $67,953. This rally marks a new higher high (HH3) compared to the previous local top of $66,450 on September 27, with a 6.17% increase on October 15, fueling expectations of reclaiming the $70,000 level for the first time in H2 2024.
Despite nearing all-time highs, retail demand for Bitcoin appears low, according to Crypto Rover, founder of Cryptosea. However, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, notes that apparent demand is beginning to rise. This metric is based on the difference between new supply from mining and long-term holdings. Historically, increases in apparent demand have preceded significant price rises, mirroring levels seen before Bitcoin’s peak at $73,800 in March.
Recent data shows a 3% increase in purchasing demand from new investors over the past 10 days, signaling a positive market trend. The Coinbase and Kimchi premiums indicate renewed interest from retail investors, although overall premiums remain negative, suggesting a ‘disbelief’ rally as prices are perceived to be at a discount.
While spot demand has improved, the recent rally is largely attributed to the derivatives market, with open interest rising by $800 million over the weekend as prices surged. Analysts caution that this leverage-driven environment could be risky, as evidenced by indicators showing over-leveraged positions.
Bitcoin faces significant resistance at $68,000, with a strong supply zone between $67,000 and $68,300. A successful breach of this resistance is essential for potential upward movement towards $70,000. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain upward momentum after forming higher highs, indicating that a close above $68,300 is crucial for further gains this week.
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Different this time? Bitcoin RSI says $233K BTC price possible in 2025
Bitcoin is on track to potentially reach $233,000, possibly by Q1 2025, according to analysis from Bitcoindata21, which utilized the relative strength index (RSI) for its forecast.
Currently consolidating around $65,000, Bitcoin’s price action suggests that significant changes could occur in the coming months. By applying standard deviation to the monthly RSI, Bitcoindata21 estimates that the peak of the ongoing bull market might approach $250,000. This is based on historical monthly RSI highs that align with major price tops.
The prediction emphasizes that if one believes the RSI won’t reach its projected levels, they might be assuming this time is different. Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have produced rapid increases toward macro peaks, with current market sentiment reflecting apathy after prolonged consolidation.
Notably, during the last cycle, Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to $67,000 in just seven months, fueled by significant institutional buying. Analysts point out that trillions of dollars in traditional finance are poised to enter the market, potentially driving prices higher.
The daily RSI was around 62.7 on Oct. 15, indicating room for growth, as it hasn’t yet reached the “overbought” territory of 70. Trader Mags noted that past cycles typically see Bitcoin peak when the monthly RSI exceeds 90, and this has yet to occur in the current cycle, suggesting that an epic price increase may be forthcoming.
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5 things to know as Bitcoin price heads for $65,000
Bitcoin surged to $64,800 on Oct. 14, marking new highs for the month. With a 2.8% daily gain, BTC/USD is up 1.2% month-to-date, providing optimism among traders. Popular trader Crypto Tony predicts potential new highs this year or by Q1 next year, with many expecting a retest of the $65,000 resistance level.
Trader Crypto Ed applied Elliott Wave theory, stating that last week’s dip below $59,000 can be disregarded, forecasting a near-term test of $65,000. The recent bullish movement liquidated around $180 million in short positions, highlighting a weakening of resistance as Bitcoin consolidates.
Rekt Capital noted that the highest daily close price of $64,300 from August serves as a significant hurdle, though it has shown signs of weakening resistance. He indicated a strong possibility of surpassing this level, which could lead Bitcoin toward $66,000.
Amidst macroeconomic factors, the Federal Reserve’s handling of rising unemployment and inflation has become a focal point. With significant earnings reports from S&P 500 firms due this week, market expectations for interest rates are shifting, with inflation reaccelerating.
CryptoQuant’s analysis revealed a nuanced return of retail participation, particularly among small investors, though growth remains weaker than in previous cycles. Despite mixed signals from Bitcoin whales and ETF flows, analysts suggest that a final wave of retail interest may still occur in this price cycle.
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Bitcoin’s price return ‘stands apart from the crowd’ — NYDIG
According to the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset for returns despite its volatility. In an analysis published on Oct. 11, Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s Global Head of Research, stated that Bitcoin “stands apart from the crowd” when compared to other asset classes using the Sharpe ratio.
The Sharpe ratio evaluates an asset’s performance relative to its risk, calculating the ratio of excess returns to the volatility of those returns. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Cipolaro shared that Bitcoin ranks favorably against nearly every asset class across various time frames, though gold had a slightly higher ratio over the past year, a difference he described as “splitting hairs.”
This analysis counters a Goldman Sachs note from Oct. 7, which claimed that despite a 40% year-to-date increase, Bitcoin’s performance did not sufficiently compensate for its volatility. Cipolaro emphasized that the returns Bitcoin offers more than make up for the risks involved.
While acknowledging the usefulness of Sharpe ratios for comparing risk-adjusted returns, he also pointed out that absolute returns are crucial for meeting financial obligations. Additionally, the metric does not account for all types of risk, such as censorship or asset seizure.
Earlier in October, NYDIG analysts concluded that Bitcoin remains the top-performing asset for the year, even after a challenging third quarter. At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded at $62,560, having retreated from an intraday high of $63,150.
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NFT Artist DeeKay Loses Life Savings in Cyberattack During Flight
NFT artist DeeKay has reported the theft of his life savings and web3 earnings after his crypto wallets were compromised. The hack occurred during a 14-hour flight from Korea to New York, leaving him without internet access when the attack took place.
DeeKay revealed that he stored his seed phrase in a photo of a handwritten note synced to Google Drive. Despite hiding it in a random folder, he found no signs of suspicious login activity, raising questions about how the breach happened. He speculated that the leak might have originated from the physical note or a previously used public WiFi connection.
Interestingly, while all his crypto funds were stolen, DeeKay’s NFTs remained intact. He is now in the process of moving his remaining NFTs to a secure wallet to protect them.
The financial impact of the theft has deeply concerned DeeKay, especially as his family relies on him for support. He described this incident as one of the biggest challenges in his life, stating, “I’m left with nothing now… my mind is exhausted, and I need to get some sleep first.”
In a similar vein, just last week, a crypto whale lost over $32 million in a phishing attack involving wrapped ether (spWETH) tokens. According to blockchain security firm ScamSniffer, the assets were stolen through a malicious transaction linked to the decentralized finance protocol Spark, using a known scam tool.
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Bitcoin price must leave $60K range ‘to re-awaken supply’ — Market analyst
Bitcoin holders are experiencing stagnation, and traders need a breakout from the low $60,000 range to reignite market activity, according to Glassnode’s lead analyst, James Check. He stated on Oct. 9 that “investors demand a new price range to re-awaken supply,” as Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio is currently in a low liquidity zone.
Check emphasized that most coins moving on-chain are neither locking in significant profits nor losses. During periods of price consolidation, experienced traders tend to hold back, awaiting clearer signals before taking action.
Daan Crypto Trades added that traders should wait for confirmation during such times. Check suggested the situation could lead to either a major sell-off, creating capitulation-level fear, or a significant rally that reignites profit-taking.
He also noted that long-term holders, or “old hands” who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, are increasingly inactive, particularly those with coins held for 182 days or longer. “Old hands are sitting on their coins,” he observed, with volumes aged six months and older showing remarkable dormancy.
Short-term holders, on the other hand, are facing unrealized losses, with their average purchase price at $62,426, according to Bitbo data.
Despite this, some analysts see potential for a breakout from the current consolidation. Crypto trader Ash Crypto noted that Bitcoin has broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the weekly timeframe and may be poised for a bounce. Investor Mike Alfred remarked that “all this Bitcoin price action under $73,500 is basically just noise,” emphasizing the need for a breakout.
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Why is Solana (SOL) price down today?
Solana’s native token, SOL, has dropped 10% from Oct. 1 to Oct. 9, struggling to hold the $140 support level. Despite this downturn, its 30-day performance mirrors a broader altcoin market that has gained 4%.
To assess whether SOL can reach the $190 level seen in late July, we must analyze derivatives trader positioning and Solana’s performance against competitors in terms of trading volumes and deposits. Increased activity may signal future demand for SOL to cover blockchain fees.
Mixed on-chain metrics show no clear trend for SOL’s price. While increased network usage could boost SOL’s value, its worth is partly tied to adoption expectations. New decentralized applications (DApps) often drive traders to accumulate SOL for airdrops and incentives.
Analyzing on-chain data since SOL’s price drop from $190 in late July reveals a decline in activity. Comparatively, Solana’s average daily volume was $1.8 billion in July but fell to $1.2 billion recently—a 33% drop, more substantial than Ethereum’s 7% decrease. In contrast, BNB Chain saw a 48% rise in activity.
Not all DApps require high volumes. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) stood at 37.7 million SOL on Oct. 8, a 5% increase from 35.8 million SOL a month prior. This contrasts with declines in TVL for Ethereum and BNB Chain, indicating positive growth dynamics for Solana.
Noteworthy growth in Solana’s TVL includes Raydium (up 35% to $1.21 billion) and Jupiter (up 17% to $1.23 billion). Despite lower on-chain volumes, activity remains strong, supported by inflows into DApps.
In terms of derivatives, the demand for leverage through SOL futures contracts provides insights into investor sentiment. A neutral funding rate, currently at 0.01% every 8 hours, indicates that traders feel comfortable maintaining leveraged long positions.
Overall, both on-chain and derivatives data suggest SOL is closely tracking the broader altcoin market, with no clear indicators for an immediate push towards $190.
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BTC price retests $62K as Bitcoin preps ‘very high impact’ month end
Bitcoin hovered around the $62,000 support level on Oct. 9, as markets braced for significant macroeconomic data from the United States. The price action remained largely rangebound, with multiple retests of this key level, leaving traders in a cautious wait-and-see mode ahead of several economic announcements.
The first major event is the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes at 2 pm ET on Oct. 9, which included an unexpected 0.5% interest rate cut. Following this, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are set to be released on Oct. 10 and 11, respectively. The CPI report will also include unemployment data, heightening market anticipation.
Trader and analyst Skew noted that risk assets, including Bitcoin, have shown little movement recently but are likely to trend again following the upcoming CPI and PPI reports. The end of October is expected to bring further key economic indicators, such as GDP estimates and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which the Fed closely monitors.
Market sentiment around Bitcoin remains cautious, with many traders expecting a retest of the $61,650 level. Skew remarked on the current price action, suggesting that it indicates a period of volatility before a clear trend emerges.
On the demand front, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported a decline in US interest in Bitcoin. The Coinbase premium, which reflects the price difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, has turned negative, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for the current rally.
As of Oct. 9, this negative premium marked its lowest point since early August, suggesting that US traders are not engaging actively with Bitcoin’s price movements.
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Peter Todd named Satoshi Nakamoto in HBO documentary
HBO’s documentary, Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, has reportedly identified Canadian Bitcoin core developer Peter Todd as Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator. Producer Cullen Hoback confronts Todd and Blockstream founder Adam Back with evidence supporting this claim, culminating in Todd’s statement, “Well yeah, I’m Satoshi Nakamoto.”
However, this declaration is not definitive proof of Todd’s identity as Nakamoto. He is known for using the phrase “I am Satoshi” to advocate for the real creator’s privacy. Todd has consistently denied being Bitcoin’s inventor, questioning Hoback’s conclusions following early leaks from the documentary.
After the documentary aired, Todd reiterated on social media, “I am not Satoshi,” countering the claims made in the film. He has previously joked about being Satoshi, suggesting, “I am Satoshi, as is everyone else,” during a 2019 podcast.
Hoback’s reasoning for naming Todd as Nakamoto is based on a chat log where Todd mentioned being “the world’s leading expert on how to sacrifice your Bitcoins,” implying he might have lost access to the estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin believed to be held by Nakamoto.
In his defense, Todd speculated that the anonymity of Bitcoin’s creator might have been intentional, suggesting it was a strategy to lend credibility to Bitcoin as a serious cryptocurrency rather than the creation of an unknown individual.
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Last week’s Bitcoin dip a ‘healthy realignment,’ lower risk of crash: Bitfinex
Last week’s nearly 10% drop in Bitcoin was characterized as a “healthy realignment” by analysts from Bitfinex, suggesting a reduced risk of a sudden crash in the near future. In their Oct. 6 report, they noted that Bitcoin’s descent to the $60,000 support level, coupled with other technical factors, indicated lowered volatility.
After reaching $66,600 on Sept. 27, market optimism quickly faded due to escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns regarding the U.S. economy. Bitcoin’s decline of 9.94% during this period reflects cautious sentiment among spot investors.
Bitfinex analysts believe buyers might look to accumulate more Bitcoin at lower prices. They noted that the market experienced four consecutive days of declines for the first time since early August, which they view as a healthy adjustment.
The drop led to a reduction in open interest from $35 billion to a more stabilized $31.8 billion. Additionally, over $450 million in long positions were liquidated on Oct. 1, indicating a market bias towards capturing upside potential.
The report highlights that positive U.S. labor data in September and October has buoyed the market, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in November fostering broader risk optimism. Bitcoin has since rebounded to $62,650, showing renewed spot buying activity.
However, analysts caution that it is premature to draw definitive conclusions about the market’s short-term direction. They suggest that clues may emerge from trading patterns in early-week sessions, particularly in the U.S.
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Over 3,000 South Koreans Own Crypto Assets Valued at $740k+
A recent report from Upbit and Bithumb highlights the wealth in South Korea’s crypto market, revealing that 3,759 individuals hold high-value accounts exceeding 1 billion won (approximately $750,000).
Submitted by Democratic Party member Ahn Do-geol, the report titled “Virtual Asset Holding Status” outlines that among these holders, over 185 are in their 20s, making this age group the third-largest segment of crypto investors. Their total virtual asset value is 967.2 billion won, averaging around 5.228 billion won ($3.91 million) each. Experts suggest that many young investors owe their wealth to inherited assets or savvy early investments.
While younger investors are making waves, those in their 40s hold significant influence, with 1,297 individuals in this group owning assets worth over 1 billion won. Their total assets amount to 12.497 trillion won, averaging 9.29 billion won ($6.95 million) per person.
The top holders are South Koreans in their 50s, who have the highest total asset value. This group comprises 930 individuals with accounts over 1 billion won, collectively holding 13.82 trillion won, averaging 14.86 billion won ($11.11 million).
The report also reveals that around 7.7 million active virtual asset accounts exist on platforms like Upbit and Bithumb, with an average holding of 8.93 million won, indicating strong interest in cryptocurrencies among the general populace.
However, concerns about the crypto market’s growth persist. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) is investigating unfair cryptocurrency transactions, including price manipulation and undisclosed information trading. Regulators plan to analyze large datasets from exchanges and conduct on-site data seizures to identify fraudulent activities.
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Bitcoin realized price rejections hint BTC price ‘weakening’ — Analyst
Bitcoin is facing selling pressure as hodlers’ exposure decreases by billions. Research from CryptoQuant shows that while seasoned long-term holders (LTHs) are taking profits, short-term holders (STHs) are increasing their stakes.
LTHs, defined as those holding BTC for 155 days or more, have reduced their exposure sharply, with the realized cap falling from $19 billion to $12 billion. This indicates a trend of profit-taking or reduced buying positions among these investors.
In contrast, STHs, who hold BTC for less than 155 days, have ramped up their investments, with their realized cap increasing from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, suggesting they are taking on more risk.
Additionally, recent analysis highlights the close relationship between the realized price of BTC and its spot price, with the one-day to one-week realized price at $62,080. The frequent interactions between these prices indicate traders are closely monitoring this level.
Such price rejections could signal weakening momentum, potentially leading to short-term corrections. This comes amid significant Bitcoin exchange withdrawals, marking the largest outflow since November 2022.
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Bitcoin drops to $63K, fails to rebound after Fed hints at future interest rate cuts
Bitcoin dropped to $63,000 at the start of the week, unaffected by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks about future interest rate cuts. Despite the dip, Bitcoin remains on track to close Q3 with positive returns.
On Sept. 30, Bitcoin fell from $65,634 to an intraday low of $63,049, down 4%. At the time of writing, it was trading at $63,344, reflecting a 3.6% decrease in 24 hours.
Powell, speaking at the National Association for Business Economics, indicated future rate cuts would be smaller, likely around 0.25% increments, if the economy progresses as expected. The Fed recently cut rates by 50 basis points for the first time since March 2020, and markets expect a cautious approach in the next meeting, with a quarter-point reduction in November and possibly a 0.5% cut in December.
Despite the drop, traders remain optimistic for Q4, following Bitcoin's recovery after the Fed’s September rate cut. Historical data suggests Q4 could see further gains, with Bitcoin expected to end Q3 up 0.6% and 7% higher in September.
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