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Bitcoin ATH bull run unlikely if social sentiment runs too hot — Santiment
Bitcoin may not reach a new all-time high soon as market sentiment is at its most bullish in months, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment. On Sept. 30, Santiment reported that Bitcoin enthusiasts might have to temper their expectations before the market turns favorable again.
The platform analyzed social sentiment data, revealing 1.8 bullish posts about Bitcoin for every bearish one. Historically, markets tend to move opposite to popular sentiment.
Bitcoin’s price has risen about 14% over two weeks, climbing from under $58,000 on Sept. 17 to over $66,000 by Sept. 28. It's on track for its best September gains ever, currently up around 12%. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index also reflects the shift in sentiment, climbing to a "greed" rating of 61, up from "extreme fear" levels just weeks ago.
However, bearish indicators persist. Stablecoin demand in China has weakened, signaling potential delays in Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. Additionally, Bitcoin dropped nearly 2% on Sept. 30, trading at $64,406, which is still 12.6% below its March all-time high of $73,734.
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BNB rallies to $600 and traders call for higher — Does data support this view?
BNB, the native token of BNB Chain, surged to $614 on Sept. 27, gaining 25.7% in three weeks. This marks the first close above $600 since June 2024, sparking speculation about further bullish momentum. Some attribute this rally to Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao's release from U.S. custody after four months. However, BNB's performance has followed the broader altcoin market, suggesting CZ's release may not be the main driver.
Technical analysts argue that BNB's resilience, particularly its ability to stay above $500, hints that a bullish trend could be emerging. Some even predict BNB could reach $1,000.
In April, CZ pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act, paying a $150 million fine and stepping down from Binance. Following his four-month sentence, CZ's release in November 2023 doesn't seem to be influencing BNB's recent price movement, beyond short-term media attention. Instead, BNB's value remains tied to Binance’s ecosystem, such as its launchpad incentives and trading fee discounts.
To assess whether BNB could reach its June 2024 high of $724, it's crucial to examine its ecosystem demand and compare BNB Chain’s performance with competitors like Ethereum and Solana. The total value locked (TVL) on the BNB Chain has remained stagnant, while Ethereum’s TVL grew by 8%, and Solana’s increased by 20%. In terms of decentralized applications (DApps), BNB Chain saw a 35% decline in volume, similar to Ethereum’s 36% drop.
BNB Chain’s activity doesn't stand out compared to other blockchains. While its active user base grew by 4% in the last 30 days, Ethereum’s active addresses fell by 23%. Despite this, no major development within BNB Chain justifies BNB outperforming other altcoins. There’s also no evidence that CZ's release is driving BNB’s price surge, leaving little basis to expect it to reclaim its all-time high soon.
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Why is Solana (SOL) price up today?
Solana's price surged 4.50% in the past 24 hours, reaching $158.65 on Sept. 27, driven by broader cryptocurrency market gains and a bullish report from VanEck.
SOL price could reach $330: VanEck
VanEck’s Sept. 25 report predicts Solana could hit $330, potentially capturing 50% of Ethereum’s market capitalization. This optimism stems from Solana’s superior transaction speed and processing capabilities, handling thousands of transactions per second (TPS), which is 3,000% more than Ethereum. Solana’s daily active users also surpass Ethereum by 1,300%, and its transaction fees are drastically lower, making it more attractive for high-volume transactions, such as payments and remittances.
After the report, SOL’s price jumped 7.50%, as investors speculated on its growing role in the DeFi space.
Interest rate cuts boost risk sentiment
Global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have recently lowered interest rates in response to slow economic growth. China’s People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also reduced borrowing costs, improving liquidity.
These easing monetary policies have created a favorable environment for riskier assets, like cryptocurrencies, benefiting Solana's price surge today.
Solana breaks above key resistance trendline
Solana’s recent gains follow a rebound from its “accumulation area” between $113 and $125, which provided strong support. After consolidating, Solana broke above a downtrend line that had acted as resistance since its peak near $205 in March. This breakout, which occurred on Sept. 26, continues to gain momentum.
Currently, Solana is testing the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $155.70. If it holds, the next targets are $165.23 (0.5 Fibonacci level) and $174.75 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
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Bitcoin rallied above $65K, but will BTC price hold this level?
On Sept. 26, Bitcoin dropped to $62,705 after a third rejection at the $64,000 resistance level. However, as the U.S. stock market opened and the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, Bitcoin followed, rising over 3% to reclaim $65,000.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin's path to $70,000 is reinforced by macroeconomic factors like lower U.S. interest rates and renewed institutional investor interest. Fears of a stock market bubble have eased due to strong economic growth and record-high U.S. housing prices.
Tech stocks and monetary policy are shaping investor sentiment. Companies like Alibaba, Tesla, and Apple have gained over 30% in the past six months. Michael Matousek from U.S. Global Investors remarked that while AI remains important, expectations may have been overhyped.
Investment researcher Lyn Alden highlighted Bitcoin’s strong correlation with changes in the global monetary base, historically rising in 83% of cases when liquidity increased. This aligns Bitcoin with stock market movements, which also benefit from monetary policy shifts.
On Sept. 26, Micron, a key player in AI chip supply, raised its revenue forecast, further boosting investor confidence. The U.S. GDP growth estimate of 3% for Q2 and China’s economic stimulus also contributed to market optimism.
The most significant factor for Bitcoin was a $242 million inflow into Bitcoin ETFs over two days, indicating rising institutional demand. This suggests a shift in sentiment, reducing perceived risk and setting Bitcoin up for a potential rally toward $70,000.
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Bitcoin bulls are laying the path to $66K, but will they make it?
Bitcoin traders are aiming to push the price past a key resistance zone and reach a two-month high above $66,000.
For this to happen, the market needs either an increase in spot volumes or a rise in futures open interest, where leveraged longs could break through the strong sell wall at $65,000.
As seen in the chart, there are solid resistance levels at $66,000, $67,900, and $70,000. However, if Bitcoin can reclaim the 200-day moving average at $64,000 as support and break above channel resistance, this would signal progress. Bulls would then have a chance to reverse the pattern of lower highs by securing a weekly close above $65,000 by Sept. 29.
Such a move could trigger the liquidation of short positions in the $64,200 to $65,000 range, potentially pushing the price toward the long-term descending trendline resistance at $66,200.
TRDR.io founder DK commented on the intra-day price action, sharing charts and noting, "Spot is chasing it up, and perps are pulling asks."
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BTC price support at $62K must hold if Bitcoin bears step in — Traders
Bitcoin hovered around $63,000 on Sept. 24, with analysts suggesting bears are "running out of time" to prevent a price rise.
"Pinned" BTC price sets up bulls vs. bears battle
After the week's Wall Street open, Bitcoin's price remained steady. However, traders expected imminent volatility. Skew, a trader, noted that BTC was "pinned" between liquidity zones at $62,000 and $65,000.
Trader Mayne, taking a long-term view, pointed out the pattern of lower highs and lows since March, hinting that this trend could soon reverse with a new higher low forming.
He commented, "Bears need to act now or risk losing control." Skew agreed, emphasizing the importance of $62,000 as support if bears step in.
Puell Multiple delivers rare reversal signal
In a positive sign, Bitcoin's Puell Multiple hit the key "green" zone for the first time since late 2022 on Sept. 11, suggesting a potential macro bottom. Historically, this has indicated upcoming price increases, signaling a possible trend reversal.
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost called this a "strong long reversal signal," as highlighted on Sept. 23.
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China still controls 55% of Bitcoin hashrate despite crypto ban
Despite China’s ban on cryptocurrencies, its miners still control over 55% of the global Bitcoin mining network, according to CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju.
While Chinese mining pools dominate, U.S. mining firms are gaining ground, controlling 40% of the network. U.S. pools mostly serve institutional miners, whereas Chinese pools support smaller miners in Asia.
China’s unexpected influence continues despite its 2021 blanket ban on crypto mining and trading.
China’s stance on crypto regulations poised for change in 2025
China plans to amend its Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations in 2025 to include cryptocurrency transactions. These changes aim to address growing concerns about crypto-related money laundering as mainland users continue accessing the market despite the 2021 ban.
Discussions around the AML draft highlight the challenge of comprehensive regulation, focusing on a framework to target urgent issues. CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, hinted that China may lift its Bitcoin ban by late 2024.
Bitcoin miner revenue under pressure
August marked a challenging month for Bitcoin miners globally, with revenue dropping to $827.56 million, the lowest since September 2023. This represented a 10.5% decrease from July’s earnings, though it was still a 5% increase from August 2023. The total number of mined Bitcoin also fell slightly, from 14,725 BTC in July to 13,843 BTC in August.
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Bitcoin poised for potential rally as FTX payout looms and Fed shifts
Bitcoin may be gearing up for a major rally by the end of 2024, according to 10x Research. The report outlines the volatile year and the forces driving the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing a potential paradigm shift.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, notes a key focus on the FTX payout, with a $5–$8 billion inflow possibly sparking bullish momentum. He also highlights the Federal Reserve’s so-called “Fed put,” signaling possible further rate cuts. This could push investors to reposition their portfolios ahead of 2025.
Seasonal patterns
Historically, Bitcoin performs well from October to March, a trend confirmed by 10x Research. Previous cycles from 2014, 2017, and 2021 suggest this pattern may repeat. Despite a bearish outlook earlier this year, Bitcoin’s 2024 performance has mirrored its seasonal patterns from previous years.
Bitcoin catalysts and risks
External factors like liquidity, Federal Reserve decisions, inflation concerns, and the U.S. elections could drive Bitcoin’s year-end performance. While these catalysts are bullish, the report warns of Bitcoin’s history of significant drawdowns, up to 70% in prior cycles. Key levels to monitor are the previous high of $68,330 and the 21-week moving average, with risk management crucial during volatile periods.
Bitcoin rally amid gold pump
Gold has surged over 5% since Sept. 9, driven by geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts, reaching a new high of $2,629 per ounce on Sept. 23. Analysts are now speculating on how Bitcoin’s price will react to this significant rise.
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Bitcoin weekly RSI sparks 'intermediate' $85K BTC price target
Bitcoin could reach $85,000 by the end of 2024, with a predicted 35% price increase, according to crypto trader Titan of Crypto.
Trader expects Bitcoin breakout by year-end
Currently holding above $62,000, Bitcoin is poised for further gains after bouncing off $52,000 support. Titan of Crypto forecasts an initial target of $85,000, based on Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI).
The RSI indicates momentum and helps identify potential price tops or bottoms. With the weekly RSI breaking a downtrend since March, the trader anticipates a bullish move by year-end. Historically, when Bitcoin ends September positively, Q4 tends to be strong. Even with a red September close, past trends suggest a promising Q4.
$61,000 as a crucial BTC level
Trader Skew points to $61,000 as a key support level. To confirm Bitcoin’s strength, higher highs and lows are needed in the coming days, with $61K as the "line in the sand" for bullish momentum.
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Solana prepares for possible ‘sizable’ move after defending $120 support
Crypto traders are eyeing a strong support level on Solana’s price chart, suggesting a potential for a significant upside move.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted Solana’s defense of the $120 support on the daily chart, noting SOL has been consolidating in a rectangle since mid-April. Brandt suggested this formation could launch a “sizable advance.”
Similarly, trader TraderKoz observed SOL successfully retested $120 three times, reinforcing the importance of this level for buyers. TraderKoz advised waiting for a retest between $135 and $140 for those looking to go long on SOL.
Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, Solana led in growth over the past seven days with an 8.82% rise, outpacing Bitcoin's 6.45%, according to CoinMarketCap. At the time of writing, Solana is trading at $148.50, with a short-term target of $160.
Futures traders expand positions
Bullish momentum is also seen in the futures market, where Open Interest (OI) for SOL futures has risen by 12.5% to $2.34 billion over the past three days, according to Coinglass.
Despite a decline in total value locked (TVL) since late August, DefiLlama data shows an increase from $4.66 billion on Sept. 18 to $5.15 billion on Sept. 20. Additionally, Solana’s daily transactions climbed from 4,630 to 8,023 between Aug. 14 and Sept. 19, according to Dune Analytics.
The rise in TVL and transactions indicates growing network activity, which may positively impact SOL’s price.
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Bitcoin traders now agree $65K is ‘key’ BTC price resistance to beat
Bitcoin sold off with U.S. equities on Sept. 20 as risk assets paused their recent macro-driven gains.
Bitcoin price “looking bullish” into weekly close
BTC hit a new three-week high of $64,121 before returning to its daily open. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slid after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Gold gained 1%, while BTC quickly recovered from its Wall Street dip.
Traders remained optimistic, with Roman on X noting, "Price action looks bullish with low volume... should move sideways for a few days." Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted $65K as a key resistance, crucial for breaking the current market structure.
Liquidity and resistance at $65K
The $65K level is seen as critical for a bullish break. As trader Cred pointed out, “$64K+ weekly close, ideally impulsive, would suggest a bullish break in market structure.”
Binance leads buying pressure
CryptoQuant analysis revealed that Binance is leading in buyer demand over U.S. exchange Coinbase. The negative Coinbase premium, despite Bitcoin’s price holding, indicates strong buying pressure on Binance.
For Bitcoin to rise significantly, buying pressure needs to spread globally, driven by FOMO across international markets, the report concluded positively.
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Watch these BTC price levels as Bitcoin taps $64K
Bitcoin needs a daily close above $63,000 to pave the way for new all-time highs, according to the latest analysis.
On Sept. 19, popular trader HornHairs highlighted key BTC price levels that bulls need to turn into support.
Bitcoin traders look to $63,000
After macroeconomic factors gave a boost to risk assets, Bitcoin has rebounded, rising nearly 8% over the week. Now, BTC/USD faces a significant resistance at $63,000, which has held the market back for months. HornHairs emphasized that clearing and holding this level could signal a move towards new all-time highs (ATHs).
The mid-$60,000 zone is crucial as it includes important trend lines and the short-term investor cost basis, a level that typically supports bull markets.
MS2 Capital noted that the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) aligns with a major on-chain volume area around $64,000.
Is a BTC price breakout near?
Trader Rekt Capital revealed that Bitcoin is challenging a downward trendline dating back to July, signaling a potential breakout. The $67,000 level is now key, but time is running out, as Bitcoin has been in a "reaccumulation range" since April's halving event.
Historically, Bitcoin breaks out 150-160 days after halving. With 158 days passed, a breakout could be imminent.
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Here’s what happened in crypto today
Bitcoin is facing potential volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Sept. 18. Donald Trump remained silent on details about World Liberty Financial during a so-called launch event, but the team later revealed a governance token would be introduced. Additionally, former Celsius executive Roni Cohen-Pavon might attend the Token2049 conference.
Bitcoin poised for volatility ahead of US interest rate decision: Analysts
Bitcoin is under pressure ahead of the Fed's decision after falling below the key $60,000 support level. Analysts at Bitfinex warn that the price could experience more volatility based on the Fed’s rate cut decision. They noted that if the cut is 25 or 50 basis points, market reactions could range from bullish optimism to cautious de-risking. This volatility might be reflected in ETF and perpetual market fluctuations.
The Fed is widely expected to announce its first rate cut since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some analysts predict a Bitcoin breakout in October, driven by the rate cut. Bitcoin briefly climbed above $60,000 on Sept. 14 but quickly lost that support. Bitfinex analysts suggest the price bottomed around $52,000, supported by a recent surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Donald Trump silent on World Liberty Financial, team unveils WLFI token
During a Sept. 16 X Spaces livestream, former President Donald Trump didn’t provide any details about his family’s new crypto platform, World Liberty Financial. After more than two hours, project leader Zak Folkman revealed that a token, WLFI, would be introduced. He didn’t specify the total supply but claimed it would have fair distribution, with 63% set for public sale. No pre-sales or early buy-ins were offered to venture capitalists, but 20% of tokens were allocated to the team and advisers, and 17% reserved for user rewards.
Roni Cohen-Pavon at Token2049?
Roni Cohen-Pavon, former Celsius chief revenue officer, received court permission to travel from Israel to Singapore for business. This timing suggests he could attend the Token2049 conference, running from Sept. 16-20. Cohen-Pavon is currently out on bail after pleading guilty to fraud-related charges.
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Bitcoin price action ‘tough to call’ after Fed rate decision — Zerocap
Bitcoin’s future price is uncertain, with potential lows of $53,000 and highs of $65,000 following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Sept. 18, according to Australian trading firm Zerocap.
Jonathan de Wet, Zerocap’s chief investment officer, said there is a 62% chance the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points (0.5%), contributing to Bitcoin’s brief rally to $60,000 on Sept. 13. However, he noted that the price action remains uncertain due to lingering concerns about rate cuts and the upcoming US election.
“We’re seeing a BTC downside target of $53,000, with an upside target of $65,000 after breaking from the descending wedge,” de Wet explained, adding that Bitcoin’s direction will likely become clearer closer to the election.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $58,000, driven by strong inflation data. De Wet believes the Fed will opt for a 50 bps cut, positioning this move as the start of a broader rate-cutting cycle that could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin by the year’s end.
The upcoming rate cut has sparked debate among analysts, some arguing it could be bullish for cryptocurrencies, while others point to historical examples, such as 2001 and 2007, where rate cuts preceded economic downturns.
De Wet also highlighted uncertainty around the US election, noting that a Harris victory could impact the crypto market. If the political tides turn toward Republicans, this could influence long trades in banks, energy, and Bitcoin.
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Fake Wallet App Downloaded 10,000 Times on Google Play, Steals $70K in Crypto
A fake cryptocurrency wallet app on Google Play has stolen $70,000 from users in a sophisticated scam. The app, named WalletConnect, impersonated the legitimate WalletConnect protocol to trick users into downloading it. According to Check Point Research (CPR), the app was downloaded over 10,000 times.
The scammers behind the app exploited common Web3 issues, marketing it as a solution to compatibility problems. They used fake positive reviews to appear credible. Once downloaded, the app prompted users to link their wallets, only to redirect them to a malicious website that harvested wallet details and initiated unauthorized crypto transfers. CPR linked the scam to over 150 wallets.
Despite only 20 negative reviews, the app stayed on Google Play for five months before being removed in August. This incident highlights the need for better security in the crypto space, according to CPR’s cybersecurity manager Alexander Chailytko.
Google removed the app following CPR’s report and emphasized that Google Play Protect is designed to guard against known threats. This case follows other malware campaigns, including one affecting 11 million Android users with Necro malware and another targeting MacOS users with the "Cthulhu Stealer."
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Bitcoin has 'familiar bullish smell' as BTC price hits $66K — Analyst
Bitcoin reached a two-month high of $66,194 on Sept. 27, as China's economic stimulus fueled a rally in its stock markets. The Shanghai Composite Index experienced its best week since 2008, providing a boost to BTC/USD, which is up 3% this week.
Bitcoin joins China stocks surge on stimulus
Bitcoin's rise aligns with the S&P 500’s continued new all-time highs following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point interest rate cut on Sept. 18. China's stimulus measures have helped push Bitcoin higher, with traders comparing the current situation to past bullish trends.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for August was in line with expectations, which traders viewed positively for market performance. Analysts expect more Fed rate cuts, potentially boosting Bitcoin further.
BTC price support stays intact at $65,000
Despite slight pullbacks from the $66K mark, Bitcoin has held strong support at $65,000. Trading activity on Binance shows increasing bid liquidity near $63,000, suggesting sustained buyer interest. Analysts point to a shift from selling pressure to more passive buying, which could drive further gains.
A low ratio of long to short positions in Bitcoin, as noted by Filbfilb, co-founder of DecenTrader, adds to the bullish sentiment. He highlighted that similar market conditions have previously preceded price surges, stating that Bitcoin has a "familiar bullish smell."
As Bitcoin approaches key resistance levels, traders are watching for signs of FOMO (fear of missing out) to kick in, which could push prices even higher.
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Q4 crypto rally chances ‘exceptionally high,’ fueled by BTC $65K breakout
The potential for a strong crypto rally in Q4 is high after Bitcoin surged past $65,000, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. He believes the gains are likely to be "front-loaded," suggesting a significant rise early in the quarter.
Bitcoin’s rise has reignited FOMO (fear of missing out) in the altcoin market, with analysts predicting a major surge across cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $65,424, according to CoinMarketCap.
Capriole Investments' Altcoin Speculation Index, which tracks the percentage of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, has climbed 13% over the last 30 days, reaching 23%. This signals growing speculation in the altcoin market, led by coins like Sei (up 37.79%) and Shiba Inu (up 32.08%). Shiba Inu, in particular, has gained popularity among South Korean retail investors, reclaiming the top spot in trading volume.
As altcoins rise, Bitcoin’s dominance has dipped slightly, falling 1.57% to 57.51% since Sept. 20. Traders often watch this metric for signs of capital shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also increased, reaching a "Greed" score of 61, indicating more optimistic market sentiment. Thielen predicts further altcoin gains if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates. The Fed’s recent rate cut by 50 basis points on Sept. 18 has already sparked interest in riskier assets like altcoins.
Crypto analysts on social media predict that the altcoin rally is just beginning, with even larger gains expected in the coming months. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, said, "Altcoins are waking up significantly, but this is nothing compared to what we’ll see in the next six months."
Joe McCann and Miles Deutcher echoed this optimism, noting that most altcoins are trading above their 50-day moving averages, indicating a potential breakout from the multi-month downtrend.
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Bitcoin price 2-month highs on ‘soft landing’ may precede sub-$60K dip
Bitcoin reached $65,000 on Sept. 26, boosted by positive U.S. macroeconomic events. It achieved $65,521 on Bitstamp, marking its highest level in two months.
The rise was driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's optimism that the Federal Reserve might achieve a "soft landing" on inflation. Her comments offered a more positive economic outlook compared to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke at the 2024 US Treasury Market Conference. Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining liquidity in U.S. financial markets, a long-term priority.
Elsewhere, U.S. Q2 GDP matched expectations at 3.0%, while jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected. The S&P 500 also hit an intraday record high, continuing its rally, which began after Powell announced the first interest rate cuts in four years on Sept. 18.
China's recent fiscal stimulus efforts were another key driver of the market rally. Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter described China's actions as a sign of economic panic, but added that it could fuel more gains in risk assets like Bitcoin.
Despite the bullish momentum, Bitcoin traders signaled the need for consolidation before any further rise. Popular trader Skew noted ask liquidity at $66K, with bid liquidity around $61-62K, suggesting a potential price pullback.
Market data indicated liquidity building on both sides of the spot price, though analysts like WhalePanda advised caution, especially with a major options expiry on Sept. 27.
Justin Bennett echoed this cautious stance, warning that Bitcoin could still fall below $60,000 before resuming its upward trajectory. He pointed to potential downside targets of $57,000-$58,000 unless Bitcoin sustains a break above $65,000.
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Bitcoin $73.7K breakout ‘imminent,’ sell-off intensity ‘might vary’ — Analyst
Bitcoin may soon retest its all-time high, but the timing of profit-taking by traders remains uncertain, says a crypto analyst.
“History suggests Bitcoin will likely retest its $73,750 high between mid-October and November,” according to Bitget's chief research analyst Ryan Lee, who shared his views with Cointelegraph.
US Election's Impact on Bitcoin Sell-Offs
Lee points to signs of an imminent breakout, but notes that price fluctuations are likely. "A bullish breakout could come with sell-offs," he added, stressing the importance of investor sentiment leading up to the US elections in November. The intensity of sell-offs could depend on how investors view the election's outcome.
Since the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points and the People’s Bank of China by 30 basis points, optimism among traders has grown, making riskier assets like Bitcoin more attractive. If there’s a growing belief in a "pro-Bitcoin" US president, Lee believes traders may delay selling to capitalize on potential future profits.
Bitcoin Traders Weigh Their Bets
"They may place early bets to secure future gains, which could drive Bitcoin upwards," Lee commented.
On Sept. 18, Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik stated that a Donald Trump victory could be bullish for US crypto, while a Kamala Harris win might benefit crypto abroad, prompting firms to consider relocating.
Trump has supported the crypto industry throughout his campaign, reaffirming in a Sept. 5 speech that he would position the US as a global crypto leader.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,820, marking a 2.75% increase since Sept. 19.
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Bitcoin price target rises to $78K after Chinese stimulus package
Bitcoin is poised for a breakout to $78,000 in the coming weeks, driven by technical factors and China’s economic stimulus.
On Sept. 24, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a $140 billion liquidity injection by cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. This move, aimed at supporting China's struggling real estate market, is seen as a positive signal for Bitcoin.
Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, explained that China's stimulus could influence other central banks to ease liquidity as well. He stated, “The bottom is in for global central bank liquidity for this cycle. Sit back and watch the other CBs fall into line.”
Historically, PBOC's liquidity injections have preceded rallies in Bitcoin, with the crypto rising over 100% after similar actions in 2023 and 2024.
Despite China’s 2021 crypto mining ban, Bitcoin's performance remains linked to global liquidity trends. China’s easing measures may trigger broader risk appetite shifts.
Technical analysis: Bull flag breakout eyes $78K
On Bitcoin’s longer-term chart, a bull flag pattern has formed. This pattern often leads to a breakout above the upper trendline, potentially pushing BTC’s price to $78,000. A pullback, however, could see the price dip toward the lower trendline.
To reach a new all-time high, Bitcoin may need to surpass $80,000, adjusted for inflation.
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‘History suggests it’s breakout time for Bitcoin’ — Rekt Capital
Bitcoin and crypto markets may be nearing a breakout if historical patterns repeat, according to analyst Rekt Capital.
On Sept. 24, Rekt Capital noted that in past cycles, Bitcoin typically breaks out from its reaccumulation phase between 154 and 161 days post-halving.
This year’s halving took place on April 20, and we are now 157 days past that, positioning BTC within the expected breakout window. He highlighted:
“History suggests it is ‘breakout time’ for Bitcoin.”
In 2016, Bitcoin broke out 154 days after the halving, and in 2020, it was 161 days. While history doesn’t always perfectly repeat, Rekt Capital indicated:
“Bitcoin should break out from its reaccumulation phase within the next few days, possibly this week.”
He also analyzed Bitcoin’s typical returns, observing that September is usually bearish, while Q4 often brings stronger results.
Surprisingly, Bitcoin has gained around 9% this September, surpassing its previous best of 6% in 2016. The analyst also noted that Bitcoin has seen positive returns in nine of the past eleven Octobers, with notable gains of 48% in 2017 and 40% in 2021.
While Bitcoin has been relatively flat for the past six months, it is just 14.6% away from its previous peak of $73,738, which it needs to break for a new price discovery phase.
At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.7% over the past 24 hours, trading at $62,863, after reaching a monthly high of $65,600 on Sept. 23.
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Bitcoin’s new price targets of over $80K may not actually be the 'all-time high'
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently only 14% below its all-time high, and projections point to potential price targets over $80,000 in the coming weeks.
However, hitting $100,000 may not be as significant when inflation is factored in. Analyst Luke Broyles argues that crossing $100K will “barely” match BTC's 2021 purchasing power. In his post on X, Broyles notes that, adjusted for inflation, the 2021 ATH would equal $83,000 today.
Data from the U.S. inflation calculator supports this claim. With a cumulative inflation rate of 16.2%, an item worth $69,000 in 2021 would now cost around $80,160. By the time the next round of money printing occurs, this value could rise to $95,000, suggesting a $100,000 price in 2025 might only equate to 2021’s levels.
Bitcoin eyes $65K for a higher high
Despite September’s historically bearish trend, Bitcoin's price has surged 18% over the last 14 days. BTC is now facing a critical resistance level at $65,000, which, if flipped into support, could mark the beginning of a long-term uptrend.
Immediate resistance sits at $71,500, and a breakout could drive Bitcoin toward $86,000. A “megaphone” pattern in Bitcoin’s price chart suggests a possible 34.37% upswing in the coming weeks. If confirmed, this pattern could signal the formation of a market bottom, paving the way for further price increases.
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Gold hits new high as Bitcoin rallies to month high at above $64K
Gold has reached a record high following a U.S. central bank interest rate cut, sparking predictions for Bitcoin's next big move.
GoldPrice.org reported gold hit $2,629 per ounce on Sept. 23, after rising over 5% in two weeks. The spike followed the Federal Reserve's 0.5% interest rate cut on Sept. 18, driving investors towards inflation hedges like gold as government bonds became less attractive.
Geopolitical risks, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with upcoming U.S. elections, have further fueled gold investments. Central banks have also tripled their gold purchases since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, per Goldman Sachs. They predict gold could hit $2,700 by early next year. Despite this, gold's inflation-adjusted price remains below its 1980 peak of $3,200, according to Peter Boockvar from Bleakley Financial Group.
Meanwhile, Peter Schiff pointed out that while gold surged, investors are focused on Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency, often dubbed "digital gold," rose 8.5% after the Fed's decision, reaching $64,660 on Sept. 23, according to CoinGecko.
Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicted a breakout for Bitcoin, expecting new all-time highs before year-end, following its usual seasonal patterns.
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US judge slaps $36M fine on man for 5-year crypto investor fraud
A New York man has been fined $36 million by a federal judge for deceiving crypto investors with promises of high returns while misusing the funds for personal luxury.
On Sept. 20, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that William Koo Ichioka was ordered by US District Court Judge Vince Chhabria to pay $31 million in restitution and an additional $5 million civil penalty for his fraudulent crypto and forex scheme.
False Promises of Significant Returns
Ichioka began the scheme in 2018, misleading investors by guaranteeing “10% returns every 30 business days.” While some funds were invested in foreign currencies and crypto, Ichioka mixed the investors' money with his own, using it for personal expenses like rent, luxury watches, and vehicles.
The ruling follows a previous injunction from August 2023 that permanently banned Ichioka from trading in CFTC-regulated markets.
Regulatory Crackdown on False Return Promises
Regulators have been increasingly focused on individuals falsely promising high crypto returns. In May, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) charged Thomas John Sfraga with wire fraud for promising returns of up to 60% in three months. Similarly, in February, instructor Brian Sewell was charged with misleading investors into a hedge fund that promised high returns.
Crypto fraud is on the rise, with Americans losing $5.6 billion in 2023—an increase of 45% from 2022, according to the FBI. Most victims were over 60, accounting for nearly $1.6 billion in losses.
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Bitcoin outperformed nearly every asset class in past year — VanEck
Bitcoin has outperformed almost every asset class over the last 12 months, but a recent drop has unsettled investors, according to a Sept. 19 report by asset manager VanEck.
Since September 2023, spot BTC prices have surged 124%, with Bitcoin now holding a 56% share of the total crypto market, up 15% year-over-year. VanEck anticipates Bitcoin’s long-term bull market will continue, driven by different forces than those in 2023.
While BTC adoption was previously retail-driven, fueled by "inscriptions" that allowed users to store media on the blockchain, their popularity faded in 2024, contributing to a 52% drop in transaction fees.
Adoption as money and the rise of BTC ETFs
Bitcoin’s price growth in 2024 is more linked to its adoption as a store of value and transfer tool. U.S. regulators approved the first spot BTC ETFs in January, now commanding $55 billion in assets. Wealth advisers have adopted these ETFs faster than any previous ones.
VanEck notes that Bitcoin’s growth is underpinned by long-term trends like institutional adoption, decentralized networks, and increased sovereign interest in mining and trade.
Bitcoin miners struggle post-halving
However, Bitcoin miners have suffered in 2024, with April’s halving event reducing rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This has hit miners’ profitability hard, with the Bitcoin Hashprice down 97% year-over-year.
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Why is Ethereum (ETH) price up today?
Ethereum has shown strong bullish momentum this week, marking four consecutive daily green candles for the first time since July.
The rally began after the U.S. announced a 50 basis point rate cut, signaling a global interest rate easing cycle.
Ether OI rises by $1.3B
Ethereum’s open interest (OI) increased by over $1 billion in less than a week, reaching $11.74 billion. The last time OI exceeded $11 billion was on Aug. 5, when prices dropped to $2,111. This rise suggests traders are betting on further gains. The derivatives market is driving the rally, with rising funding rates signaling more long positions.
Ethereum TVL rises by $4B in 48 hours
Ethereum’s DeFi activity dropped in Q3, but the total value locked (TVL) rebounded by almost $4 billion in 48 hours, reaching $48.33 billion.
ETH price breaks out eyeing $2.8K
Independent analyst Kingpin Crypto believes Ethereum's long-term market outlook remains strong. After testing a key demand zone, ETH broke above a descending resistance trendline and closed above $2,464, signaling a bullish trend shift.
The next target is $2,800, though a pullback could bring ETH to $2,400, near the 0.50-0.618 Fibonacci range.
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BTC rallies past $62.6K after BlackRock issues Bitcoin white paper
Bitcoin surged nearly 6% following BlackRock's release of a white paper emphasizing the asset's potential as a hedge against monetary and geopolitical risks.
BlackRock highlighted Bitcoin as a "unique diversifier" that operates independently of traditional fiscal and geopolitical influences. The cryptocurrency’s price had bottomed out before Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared the nine-page white paper in a Sept. 18 X post. Around an hour later, Bitcoin began its climb from $59,354, eventually reaching $62,600 for the first time in over three weeks, data reveals.
Some analysts predict a potential Bitcoin rally reaching $92,000 by December, based on historical data and fourth-quarter trends.
BlackRock’s paper praised Bitcoin's decentralized nature, labeling it the world’s first "truly open-access monetary system." It highlighted Bitcoin’s immunity to traditional counterparty risks, such as banking crises and geopolitical turmoil, making it a reliable asset during economic instability.
The report included a chart showing how Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during significant geopolitical events, underscoring its resilience.
According to BlackRock, Bitcoin’s future adoption will largely depend on global macroeconomic conditions, with particular focus on US fiscal and political stability.
Currently, BlackRock controls the largest Bitcoin ETF, holding over $21.4 billion worth of BTC, representing more than 38% of the market.
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Bitcoin poised for volatility ahead of US interest rate decision: Analysts
Bitcoin faces increased volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's Sept. 18 interest rate decision, having lost the key $60,000 support level.
According to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin’s price could fluctuate significantly depending on whether the Fed cuts rates by 25 or 50 basis points. A 50 bps cut might spark bullish optimism, while a 25 bps cut could lead to cautious de-risking. This volatility is likely to affect ETF flows and perpetual markets.
The upcoming rate decision marks the Fed's first cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, with some analysts predicting a Bitcoin breakout in October as a result.
$52,000 Bitcoin was the price bottom: Bitfinex analysts
Bitcoin briefly rose above $60,000 on Sept. 14 but quickly lost support. However, Bitfinex analysts believe the recent dip to $52,756 may have marked a local bottom. Since then, Bitcoin’s price has increased by over 15%, boosted by $403.9 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past week.
The analysts had earlier predicted a correction to the low $50,000s, which they consider a crucial level ahead of the rate cut.
Markets expect a 50 basis point rate cut, but analysts disagree
While market data from the CME FedWatch tool shows a 67% chance of a 50 bps cut, Bitfinex analysts expect a more conservative 25 bps cut due to lingering inflation concerns. They argue that a smaller cut is more likely, setting the stage for a potential three-month rally that could push Bitcoin above $92,000, especially given the historically bullish months of October through December.
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Ethereum falls to new 42-month low vs. Bitcoin — Bottom or more pain ahead?
Ether’s price continues to struggle against Bitcoin, raising concerns about further losses for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
With Bitcoin dominance at 58%, some wonder if ETH has reached a local bottom or will keep losing ground to BTC.
ETH/BTC hits 42-month low
Ether’s value against Bitcoin hit a level not seen since 2021. This drop may indicate further downside risks, according to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy. In a Sept. 15 post on X, Thorn highlighted that ETH/BTC traded at 0.03 for the first time in 3.5 years, marking a 53% decline since the Merge in September 2022.
Mathematician Fred Krueger also warned that ETH is on the “edge of collapse” against Bitcoin. He noted that not all ETFs are the same, sharing data on Bitcoin and Ether ETF inflows. Ethereum ETFs have experienced significant outflows, which may explain ETH’s price slump. US Ether ETFs saw $581 million in net outflows, with Grayscale’s ETF accounting for $2.7 billion.
Is the Ether bottom in?
Some traders believe ETH is nearing its bottom. Crypto trader Anbessa suggested that ETH/BTC could find support at 0.03845 BTC based on historical patterns. Similarly, investor Hedgex pointed to ETH/BTC’s historically low relative strength index, which has only reached this level five times in Ethereum’s history. Each time, it was followed by a significant rally.
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