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Bitcoin is up 170% since the ECB called its ‘last gasp’ at $16.4K
Bitcoin has gained almost 170% since the European Central Bank (ECB) warned of its impending “irrelevance.”
As noted by crypto proponent Eric Wall and others on Dec. 4, BTC price action has done the complete opposite of economists’ predictions.
ECB Bitcoin myopia: “What else are they wrong about?”
Bitcoin traded at just $16,400 when, on Nov. 30, 2022, the ECB published a blog post dedicated to its death.
Coming just after the implosion of the FTX exchange and subsequent market flight, the post argued that even those levels were a stopping point on the way to new lows.
“The value of bitcoin peaked at USD 69,000 in November 2021 before falling to USD 17,000 by mid-June 2022. Since then, the value has fluctuated around USD 20,000,” it stated.
“For bitcoin proponents, the seeming stabilization signals a breather on the way to new heights. More likely, however, it is an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance – and this was already foreseeable before FTX went bust and sent the bitcoin price to well below USD16,000.”
This “last gasp” initially continued to play out. After ironically gaining on the day of publication, BTC/USD then saw one revisit of $16,400 in mid-December. After that, a swift comeback saw it add 70% in Q1, 2023 alone.
A year after the ECB’s premature obituary, Bitcoin is at its highest since April 2022, sitting at $43,800 at the time of writing, or 166% higher than when the bank sounded the alarm, per data.
Commenting on the amusing blunder, Philip Swift, creator of the statistics platform Look Into Bitcoin, joined Wall in feeling a sense of satisfaction.
“You love to see it,” he commented while reposting a chart by Wall on X (formerly Twitter).
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at crypto education resource Galaxy, queried the ECB’s prowess.
“This really is as good as it gets,” he replied to Wall.
“If they’re this wrong about this, what else are they wrong about?”
“Yes” to CBDC, “no” to BTC
The ECB is known as a Bitcoin skeptic, with takes on the market by the bank and its senior officials often inducing embarrassment.
Last month, ECB Chief Christine Lagarde complained that her son had ignored her advice on investing in crypto and lost money as a result.
“I have, as you can tell, a very low opinion of cryptos,” Lagarde said at a speaking engagement quoted by Reuters.
As reported, the ECB is currently preparing for the possible rollout of a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, which has faced intense scrutiny after Lagarde admitted its utility for transaction “control.”
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Bitcoin price hit 2023 high, so why are retail traders waiting on the sidelines?
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market surged past $1.55 trillion on Dec. 5, driven by remarkable weekly gains of 14.5% for Bitcoin and 11% for Ether. Notably, this milestone, marking the highest level in 19 months, propelled Bitcoin to become the world’s ninth-largest tradable asset, surpassing Meta’s $814 billion capitalization.
Despite the recent bullish momentum, analysts have observed that retail demand remains relatively stagnant. Some attribute this to the ripple effects of an inflationary environment and decreased interest in credit, given that interest rates continue to hover above 5.25%. While analyst Rajat Soni’s post may have dramatized the situation, the underlying, in essence, holds true.
Numerous United States economic indicators have surged to record highs, including wages, salaries and household net worth. However, analyst Ed Yardeni suggested that the “Santa Claus rally” might have already occurred earlier this year, with the S&P 500 gaining 8.9% in November.
This rise reflected diminishing inflationary pressures and robust employment data. Yet, investors remain cautious, with approximately $6 trillion in “dry powder” parked in money market funds, waiting on the sidelines.
Did retail traders miss Bitcoin’s and Ether’s recent gains?
With no dependable indicator to track retail participation in cryptocurrencies, a comprehensive data set is necessary for making conclusions, beyond relying solely on Google Trends and crypto-related app download rankings. To determine if retail traders have missed out on the rally, it’s essential that the indicators align across various sources.
The premium of Tether in China serves as a valuable gauge of retail demand in the crypto market. This premium quantifies the difference between peer-to-peer USDT trades based in yuans and the value of the U.S. dollar. Excessive buying activity typically exerts upward pressure on the premium, while bearish markets often witness an influx of USDT into the market, resulting in a 3% or greater discount.
On Dec. 5, the USDT premium relative to the yuan reached 1%, a modest improvement from the previous weeks. However, it remains within the neutral range and hasn’t breached the 2% threshold for over half a year. Whether retail flow gravitates toward Bitcoin or altcoins, Chinese-based investors primarily need to convert cash into digital assets.
Turning the attention to Google Trends, searches for “buy Bitcoin” and “buy crypto” reveal a stable pattern over the past three weeks. While there’s no definitive answer to what piques the interest of new retail traders, these queries typically revolve around how and where to purchase cryptocurrencies.
Notably, the current 90-day index stands at approximately 50%, showing no signs of recent improvement. This data seems counterintuitive, given that Bitcoin has surged by 53% in the past 50 days, while the S&P 500 has risen by 4.5% during the same period. Importantly, when viewed over a longer time frame, the current search levels remain a staggering 90% below their all-time high in 2021.
Finally, it’s crucial to delve into derivatives markets, specifically perpetual futures, which are the preferred instrument for retail traders. Also known as inverse swaps, these contracts feature an embedded rate that accrues every eight hours. A positive funding rate suggests a greater demand for leverage by longs (buyers), whereas a negative rate indicates that shorts (sellers) are seeking additional leverage.
Notice that the weekly funding rate for most coins fluctuates between 0.2% and 0.4% per week, signaling a slightly higher demand for leverage among longs. However, during bullish periods, this metric can easily surpass 4.3%, which is not presently the case for any of the top seven coins in terms of futures open interest.
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Bitcoin short-term holder sales near $5B as profit-taking mimics 2021
Bitcoin has seen a mass profit-taking event which rivals its $69,000 all-time highs, new analysis reveals.
In a post on Dec. 5, James Van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, flagged billions of dollars heading to exchanges.
Bitcoin speculators sell as if all-time highs are back
BTC price gains have delivered a welcome reward to hodlers across the board in recent days as 19-month highs appeared.
While old hands are retaining their share of the BTC supply, at the other end of the spectrum, so-called short-term holders (STHs) have been busy locking in profits on their investments.
STHs refer to entities holding a given part of the supply for 155 days or less. They correspond to the more speculative class of Bitcoin investors, and their cost basis has formed a key BTC price supportin 2023.
Now, with BTC/USD up almost 15% in a week, the time has come to reassess their exposure, data shows.
According to Van Straten, the total volume transfer between STHs and exchanges — coins being prepared for sale — has come close to $5 billion in the four days to Dec. 4.
“Bitcoin recorded a 7% gain, culminating in a year-to-date peak of $38,800 by Dec. 1,” he commented.
“This milestone ignited the most considerable profit realization from short-term holders seen in recent times since November 2021.”
Van Straten referred to figures from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
STH profit-taking thus continues to mimic activity from when BTC/USD hit its current record levels of $69,000 two years ago.
Bitcoin bull market hurdles line up
As continues to report, recent upside has reignited predictions of a return to those levels sooner than the majority thinks is possible thanks to a combination of internal and macroeconomic factors.
Analyzing what lies in the way, meanwhile, Philip Swift, creator of statistics resource Look Into Bitcoin, highlighted Fibonacci retracement levels that have featured in previous Bitcoin bull markets.
In Swift relayed the Golden Multiplier Ratio metric, which he created in 2019 to track price cycle highs.
“These lower fibs have historically acted as resistance in early bull markets. x1.6 (green line) currently at $43,739 and climbing,” he toldsubscribers on X (formerly Twitter) this week.
Swift added that the higher levels have “successfully identified every Bitcoin cycle high to date.”
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: $42K Breach as US Defense Eyes BTC
US Defense Eyes Bitcoin for National Superpower Stability
In an open letter advocating for strategic innovation to the Defense Innovation Board, US Space Force Major Jason Lowery recommended the Department of Defense integrate Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Major Lowery emphasized Bitcoin’s potential to revolutionize national defense strategies in cyberspace, extending beyond mere financial security.
He argued that proof-of-work networks like Bitcoin represent a 21st-century offset strategy that exploits advances in cybersecurity technology. While some in the cryptocurrency community have praised Major Lowery’s initiative, others, including Bitcoin proponent Jameson Lopp, have criticized it for perceived analytical flaws.
Despite these differing viewpoints, Major Lowery’s call for an investigation into Bitcoin’s strategic national significance could influence the debate on its role in cybersecurity and defense.
Bitcoin Triumphs, Crossing $42,000 First Time Since April
With renewed vigor amid prospects of US interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has surged to a 20-month high, crossing the $42,000 mark. This resurgence, unseen since April 2022, has buoyed related ETFs and stocks as investors eagerly await the approval of exchange-traded spot bitcoin funds by American regulators.
Notable gains were recorded by Coinbase and Microstrategy, with bitcoin miners Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and CleanSpark witnessing increases between 7% to 13%. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which mirrors bitcoin futures, saw a 7.5% hike, signaling a shift toward a more bullish market outlook.
Factors such as anticipated approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, a slowdown in rate hikes by central banks, and increasing institutional interest all contribute to the positive climate. Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent in 2023 reflects a burgeoning, optimistic market sentiment.
El Salvador Reports Surge in Bitcoin Investment Gains
President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador recently announced on Twitter a significant milestone for the country’s Bitcoin investment. According to his tweet, not only has El Salvador recovered its initial investment in Bitcoin, but it has also profited by $3,620,277.13, given the cryptocurrency’s current value.
Bukele emphasized El Salvador’s commitment to a long-term strategy, asserting that there are no plans to sell off their Bitcoin assets, despite the market’s volatility.
In his statement, President Bukele also addressed the skeptics and media entities that had previously criticized El Salvador’s pioneering decision to adopt Bitcoin as a national currency three years ago. He called for retractions and apologies, highlighting the recent surge in Bitcoin’s value as a vindication of the country’s bold move into the cryptocurrency space.
This latest development in the value of Bitcoin underscores the benefits of El Salvador’s embrace of digital currencies.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin continues its upward movement, currently priced around $41,820. The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin on an upward path, indicating a continued bullish trend. Significant levels to watch are the pivot point at $40,085, acting as a strong support, and an immediate resistance near $41,940.
If Bitcoin advances, it may encounter resistance at $43,500 and $45,100, while key supports at $38,900 and $36,710 will be crucial in mitigating any substantial declines.
The technical analysis presents a positive outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 80, suggesting the asset might be overbought. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s price remains well above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $38,900, reinforcing the ongoing bullish pattern. Additionally, chart patterns indicate an upward channel breakout, hinting at a potential extension of the bullish trend.
Overall, Bitcoin’s current trajectory appears to be upward, with the likelihood of testing the resistance at $43,500 shortly.
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Bitcoin Price Breaks Through $42,000, Up 6.6% in 24 Hours
Bitcoin price briefly broke through the $42,000 mark earlier today, gaining 6.6% in the last 24 hours.
This surge marks a recovery to levels last witnessed before the Terra crash in May 2022.
Liquidations in the crypto market have concurrently spiked, with over $160 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, primarily affecting short positions.
Bitcoin’s price reached a peak of $42,100, and is currently trading at $41,603, following a slight decline subsequent to surpassing the $42,000 milestone.
Bitcoin Price Reaches Highest Level Since May 2022
This surge represents a complete retracement to Bitcoin’s level above $41,000 in early May 2022, reflecting a remarkable value increase of over 150% since the beginning of the year.
The global cryptocurrency market cap has also experienced a notable uptick, reaching $1.62 trillion, signifying a 4.0% increase within the past 24 hours. The last time the combined cryptocurrency market cap reached this level was in late April 2022.
In terms of trading volumes, November’s cryptocurrency exchange trading volume surpassed $826 billion, marking the highest monthly volume since March of the same year.
Onchain data reveals that Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has increased from over $30 billion on December 1 to the current value of $32 billion, reaching a yearly high and its highest level since November 2022.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price has not been without consequences, as evidenced by significant liquidations in the past 24 hours.
$216 Million Liquidated
Coinglass data indicates that 75,887 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations exceeding $216 million. The majority of these liquidations targeted short positions, with $166 million shorts wiped out compared to just over $50 million in long positions.
While Bitcoin takes the spotlight, other blue-chip cryptocurrencies experienced varying gains on Monday. Ethereum (ETH) rose by over 4% to maintain its position above the $2,250 mark. BNB posted a more modest uptick of over 2%, reaching a current price of $234, while Solana traded flat, hovering around the $63.50 mark over the past 24 hours.
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Bitcoin breaks $41K as gold price reaches new all-time high
The price of gold has broken through a new all-time high, surpassing the significant level of $2,100 during the Asian session on Monday, Dec. 4. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also surged above $41,000 for the first time in 19 months.
Bitcoin price breaks $40K...and $41K
Bitcoin has made a triumphant return to the $40,000 threshold, a figure unseen since the heights of April 2022. This included a swift 2% jump over 24 hours, marking a 19-month peak for the cryptocurrency.
What's more, Bitcoin has now risen over 140% since the beginning of the year.
Insights from Matrixport’s research head, Markus Thielen, suggest an even brighter future. With historical trends of post-bear market bull cycles and upcoming Bitcoin halving events as a backdrop, projections place Bitcoin at over $60,000 by April next year and as high as $125,000 by the end of 2024.
Such predictions rest on the historic pattern of price increases preceding halving events, with an expected surge of over 200%.
"On the eve of a spot Bitcoin ETF"
The speculative winds are further fanned by the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.
With 13 bidders, including industry giants like BlackRock and Grayscale, the anticipation is building toward a decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Bloomberg’s ETF analysts see a high probability of simultaneous approvals for all pending bids by Jan. 10, which would mark not only a new era of institutional participation and investment in Bitcoin, but likely a boost for BTC price as well.
“It's very likely we are on the eve of a Bitcoin spot ETF,” commented Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo on X about the new highs in gold price. “The first commodity ETF was SPDR Gold Trust. It provided a simple way for investors to access gold in their portfolio.”
Woo added:
“When it launched, gold went on to an 8-year rally with no single down year between 2005 - 2012.”
Therefore, Bitcoin's latest move above the psychological $40,000 level reflects bullish market sentiment fueled by the likely approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January and the prospect of regulatory advancements in general. Bitcoin's halving event, meanwhile, is only expected to provide additional tailwinds for BTC price over the next five months.
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North Korean hackers have pilfered $3B of crypto over past six years: Report
According to United States cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, North Korean hackers have stolen around $3 billion in cryptocurrency since 2017, with more than half of that amount stolen in the past year alone.
Recorded Future indicated in a recent report that the amount of stolen crypto equates to approximately half of North Korea’s entire military expenses for the year:
"North Korean threat actors were accused of stealing an estimated $1.7 billion worth of cryptocurrency in 2022 alone, a sum equivalent to approximately 5% of North Korea’s economy or 45% of its military budget.”
Furthermore, the stolen amount surpasses the total annual income from exports for the nation by a considerable margin.
“This amount is also almost 10 times more than the value of North Korea's exports in 2021, which sat at $182 million,” the report stated.
Meanwhile, it explained that North Korean hackers initially targeted South Korea for its crypto, before expanding their focus to the rest of the world:
“North Korean cyber operators shifted their targeting from traditional finance to this new digital financial technology by first targeting the South Korean cryptocurrency market before significantly expanding their reach globally.”
It was noted that support from the North Korean government has led to a significant expansion in the scale of the illicit operation.
“State backing allows North Korean threat actors to scale their operations beyond what is possible for traditional cybercriminals,” the report declared.
In recent news, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on crypto mixer Sinbad, alleging the platform facilitated funds laundered for the North Korea-based Lazarus Group.
According to a UN report, cyber attacks were more sophisticated in 2022 than in previous years, making tracing stolen funds more difficult than ever.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis labeled the cybercriminal syndicates as the most “prolific cryptocurrency hackers over the last few years.”
Additionally, Chainalysis noted that North Korea-linked hackers were moving funds through crypto mixers such as Tornado Cash and Sinbad at a much higher rate than other criminal groups.
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Bitcoin sees best monthly close in 19 months as BTC price taps $38K
Bitcoin returned to $38,000 on Dec. 1 after the November monthly close became its best since April 2022.
Bitcoin bears fail to spark monthly close sell-off
Data tracked impressive overnight BTC price performance,which held key support.
The close came in at just over $37,700, with bid liquidity preserving the intraday range and avoiding a last-minute sell-off, per order book data from trading resource Material Indicators.
“Monthly close looks pretty good closing above $35K,” popular trader Skew reacted on X (formerly Twitter.)
“Could see some multi week compression between $35K - $39K.”
Skew added that major resistance on monthly timeframes now lay higher — at $47,000 and around the 2021 all-time high of $69,000.
“Monthly candle was excellent with a candle body low of $34.5K, this is important in that the lower candle BODY low was higher then the preceding candle BODY high. This is a sign of strength!” fellow trader and chartist JT continued in part of his own summary.
“And lest we forget we closed $3K higher this month than last month, and thats progress!”
JT described the high-timeframe chart outlook as “consistent and constructive.”
The trip above the $38,000 mark, which came hours after the close, marked Bitcoin’s first noticeable move in the latter half of the week. United States macroeconomic data prints conversely failed to attract much of a response.
Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, was due to speak on the day in what would be the last chance for external volatility to be triggered.
BTC price range has "significant" features
Highlighting the stubborn nature of the current range below $40,000, meanwhile, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan argued that clearing it would be highly significant.
Alan referenced the historical resistance/support (R/S) lines in play within the range, these of similar importance to those already cleared, such as the previous cycle’s 2017 all-time high near $20,000.
“If you think BTC is hovering around an arbitrary price you would be mistaken. There is a significant amount of historical confluence in this little R/S Flip Zone,” he wrote overnight.
An accompanying chart showed the levels to note on the monthly chart, along with long and short signals from one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading indicators.
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Bitcoin for Christmas: MicroStrategy buys another $600M
Business intelligence firm MicroStrategy purchased 16,130 Bitcoin in November, bringing its total holdings to more than $6 billion.
In a Nov. 30 announcement, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor said the company acquired the BTC for roughly $593.3 million — a price of $36,785 per Bitcoin. As of Nov. 29, MicroStrategy reported it held 174,530 BTC — worth roughly $6.6 billion at the time of publication — at a price of $37,726.
The business intelligence firm has consistently purchased large volumes of Bitcoin since announcing it would adopt the cryptocurrency as its treasury reserve asset in August 2020. Saylor’s last announcement was in September, reporting MicroStrategy bought 5,445 BTC for roughly $147 million.
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchase announcement followed as the cryptocurrency price rose roughly 10% in November. The firm reported a gain of $900 million for its Bitcoin holdings in the third quarter of 2023, with CEO Phong Le hinting at the time that the company would continue to make consistent purchases.
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Bitcoin ETF will drive 165% BTC price gain in 2024 — Standard Chartered
Bitcoin may hit $100,000 in one year’s time thanks to “earlier than expected” exchange-traded funds (ETF) launching, says Standard Chartered.
In a research note issued on Nov. 28 quoted by sources including Business Insider, the banking giant doubled down on its bullish BTC price targets.
Standard Chartered still expects six-figure BTC price
Bitcoin is in line to trade at six figures by the end of 2024, the latest forecast from Standard Chartered concludes.
Thanks to the United States potentially approving Bitcoin spot price ETFs, BTC/USD has the ability to almost treble from its current $37,700 over the coming 12 months.
“We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs,” Geoff Kenrick, Standard Chartered’s head of EM FX Research, West and Crypto Research, wrote.
“This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before end-2024.”
The figure continues the consumer banking giant’s already optimistic vision of how Bitcoin will grow in the coming years.
In July, research eyed the declining availability of the BTC supply as a reason to believe that much higher prices were in store. Specifically, Kenrick said at the time that $50,000 was on the cardsby the end of 2023.
He also suggested that miners would begin hoarding more of their own BTC stocks amid increasing hash rate and the upcoming block subsidy halving decreasing BTC earned per block by 50%.
“Increased miner profitability per BTC (bitcoin) mined means they can sell less while maintaining cash inflows, reducing net BTC supply and pushing BTC prices higher,” he summarized.
Spot Bitcoin ETF: Counting down the weeks
The ETF narrative is firmly in the spotlight this month as derivatives premiums shoot higher and buzz around a potential approval in January heightens.
BTC price trajectory has been sensitive to related news. Earlier in November, the market gained rapidly over anticipation of a possible approval coming from U.S. regulators before the January window.
At the same time, concerns linger over large-volume investors selling off once the greenlight appears — in what would constitute a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, which could leave latecomers at a loss.
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Bitcoin price fails $38.5K breakout as US GDP fuels Fed hard landing woes
Bitcoin shrank back from resistance after the Nov. 29 Wall Street open as United States GDP figures beat expectations.
GDP sets tone for macro-sensitive crypto
Data followed a familiar BTC price retracement on short timeframes.
Bitcoin bulls had managed to propel the market above $38,000 the day prior, only to flip flop around that level before ultimately dropping as U.S. macro data hit.
This showed Q3 GDP accelerating beyond anticipated levels, coming in at 5.2% versus 4.9%, respectively.
This renewed concerns over how the Federal Reserve might handle policy ahead of an interest rates decision in mid-December.
“5.2% is the final reading, it will mark the highest GDP growth since Q4 2022,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter.)
“Can the Fed achieve a soft landing?”
Kobeissi referenced words from Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, who the day prior had gone on record to predict a Fed rate pivot as soon as Q1, 2024.
“Yesterday, Bill Ackman bet on a hard landing with rate cuts beginning in Q1. Currently, futures don't see rate cuts beginning until June 2024,” it continued.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed marginally increasing bets on a further hike in December following the GDP release, with further key data due on Nov. 30. The odds of a hike stood at 4.2% at the time of writing versus 0.5% previously.
Analyst: Bitcoin is a buy below $35,000
Bitcoin meanwhile continued acting in a familiar style from recent days.
Bulls still failed to crack a key resistance zone beginning at $38,500, despite some being confident that an assault on $40,000 would ultimately result.
“No HH or breakout confirmation yet, eyeing a sweep of $37.3K area & HL setup for the HH,” popular trader Skew told X subscribers, referring to a “higher high” being required.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested that a period of flatter BTC price performance could now enter before a fresh bout of upside volatility.
“Price took out some liquidity above and below,” he commented about the day’s events.
“Would not surprise me to see some more sideways chop for both sides to build up more positions before the next bigger move.”
An accompanying chart showed liquidity for the BTC/USDT pair on largest global exchange Binance.
Eyeing potential downside opportunities, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MN Trading, flagged a range between $33,000 and $35,000 — already a popular zone based on liquidity.
"Markets are consolidating. Giving opportunities, still no breakout of Bitcoin above $38K," his latest X analysis read.
"If we continue to make higher lows, higher highs, a breakout seems to be happening soon. Structure lost? Buying at $33-35K."
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Bitcoin gets 'whale games' warning as BTC price eyes $40K into US data
Bitcoin held momentum at $38,000 on Nov. 29 as analysis warned over market corrections.
Bitcoin meets macro data, Fed's Powell at key price point
Data showed BTC price trajectory continuing to aim for new 18-month highs.
After matching current highs the day prior, the largest cryptocurrency surprised by keeping a grip on higher levels as futures markets hit $39,000.
Already a topic of debate, the excitement on derivatives led some to caution that large-volume traders could still leave late long positions stranded at the top.
In commentary overnight, Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, told traders to be wary of these “whale games.”
“Earlier today, some ask liquidity at $38k was pulled to open the door to $38.5k. Don't allow yourself to think that was a friendly whale giving you boost. That was a Killer Whale trying to FOMO you in,” he wrote about the initial trip past $38,000.
Alan continued that words due Dec. 1 from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve, may provide an external BTC price catalyst which could even bring $40,000 into play.
Whales, however, would be spying a key level at which to sell off.
“My assumption is that they will continue to do so until there is enough to dump into,” he forecast.
“That doesn't mean that #JPow's speech can't be the catalyst that sends price past $40k, especially as we see bid liquidity coming in above $37.5k, but if you aren't prepared to sweep the local lows between now and then you haven't been paying attention to how these Whale Games tend to play out.”
An accompanying chart showed order book sell-side liquidity concentrated at $38,500 — a level yet to be challenged at the time of writing.
Others remained confident that further short-term upside was possible and even likely.
Analyzing current market composition, popular trader Skew concluded that volume was all that was missing for a breakout toward the $40,000 watershed.
Ackman bets on Q1 Fed rate cut
As reported, prior to Powell’s speech, key U.S. macro data will lend extra weight to Fed policy.
This comes in the form of Q3 GDP and the October print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index on Nov. 29 and Nov. 30, respectively.
Previously, inflation abating faster than expectations led markets to assume that no further interest rate hikes would occur at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Speaking to Bloomberg on Nov. 28, Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, stated that the Fed might have no choice but to pivot on rates at the start of 2024.
“I think they’re going to cut rates; I think they’re going to cut rates sooner than people expect,” he said.
Ackman continued that not cutting rates “pretty soon” would increase the risk of a so-called hard landing for the U.S. economy as inflation tails off.
“I think the market expects sometime in the middle of next year; I think it’s more likely, probably, as early as Q1,” he predicted.
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‘Buy the rumor, sell the news’ — Bitcoin ETF may spark TradFi sell-off
Bitcoin may suffer when the United States approves the first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), a new warning says.
In a thread on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 28, Joshua Lim, head of derivatives at capital market firm Genesis Trading, predicted a volatile start to 2024 for BTC price action.
Bitcoin ETF approval: Retail may be left holding the buck
Lim said that Bitcoin is already a target for traditional finance, or “TradFi,” which is betting on winning big out of the spot ETF approval.
“We know tradfi guys / macro tourists are already long crypto ahead of ETF news. They’ve built the position over the last few months and are now paying handsomely to roll it,” the thread explained alongside data covering open interest on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.
“Commitment of traders data showing asset managers increased length by about $1bn since end of Sep.”
The signs are there in the performance of the first Bitcoin futures ETF (BITO), as well as stocks of crypto firms such as U.S. exchange Coinbase (COIN), the latter up 250% year-to-date.
While generating buzz and emboldening the institutional adoption narrative behind Bitcoin, the party could quickly fizzle once the spot ETF is given the green light. This, Lim and others suggest, would be a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
“What does it all mean?” he queried.
“Tradfi is already long and probably thinking about when to exit this trade around etf announcement expect retail to pile in.. and expect tradfi guys to exit (2021 tops in basis were prior to COIN and BITO listings).”
A gold ETF rerun?
Lim is not alone in wondering if ETF approval day will ultimately leave lay investors disadvantaged.
Responding, James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, channeled history to support the concerns.
“When the Gold ETF (GLD) was introduced in November 2004, it opened around $45 and dropped to approximately $41 by May 2005. However, it saw an impressive 268% increase over the subsequent seven years,” he added in a CryptoSlate analysis on Nov. 28.
On a more optimistic interim note, popular trader Jelle remarked that institutional interest had not been dented by the week’s news stories, including the $4.3-billion settlement between the U.S. government and the largest global crypto exchange, Binance.
CME futures, he stressed, continue to trade at a premium over the Bitcoin spot price.
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Binance, CZ paid for defying financial, political status quo — Arthur Hayes
The explosive growth and success of Binance outside of the control of the traditional financial and political establishment led to heavy-handed enforcement actions against the exchange, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
Hayes delved into the recent $4.3 billion settlement paid out by Binance in a lengthy Substack post. This comes after the exchange and its founder, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, admitted violating United States laws around money laundering and terror financing.
As Hayes highlights, CZ’s global exchange became the largest by trading volume in the six years since its inception in 2017. The former BitMEX CEO points out that Binance would also be rated in the top 10 traditional exchanges by average daily volume, which is indicative of its growing influence on a global scale.
“The problem for the financial and political establishment was that the intermediaries facilitating flows into and out of the industrial revolution named blockchain were not run by members of their class,” Hayes opined.
Binance challenged the status quo
The former BitMEX CEO, who himself fell foul of violating U.S. Bank Secrecy Act regulations after the exchange failed to implement adequate Know Your Customer procedures, highlighted Binance’s role in allowing everyday people to own intermediaries and cryptocurrency assets without needing traditional players.
“Never before had people been able to own a piece of an industrial revolution in under 10 minutes via desktop and mobile trading apps.”
Hayes added that from a fundamental standpoint, centralized exchanges use tools of the state, such as the company and legal structures to “disintermediate the very institutions that were supposed to run the global financial and political system.”
“How dearly did CZ pay? CZ — and by extension, Binance — paid the largest corporate fine in Pax Americana history.”
Hayes then refers to several high-profile mainstream banking scandals, as well as the 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent recession, which was directly attributed to the collapse of the U.S. housing market.
In most of these instances, mainstream banking and financial institutions were largely absolved or held to limited accountability. On the flip side, CZ and Binance were hammered hard by the U.S. Department of Justice:
“Obviously, the treatment of CZ and Binance is absurd and only highlights the arbitrary nature of punishment at the hands of the state.”
Hayes then delves deeply into the intricacies of the current state of the U.S. and Chinese economies and how the latter could drive massive capital inflows to Bitcoin in the next few years.
Capital making its way from China to Bitcoin
The former BitMEX CEO suggests that Chinese state-owned enterprises, manufacturers and investors are set to begin investing capital offshore due to a lack of attractive returns locally.
Quoting Peking University professor and former Bear Stearns trader Michael Pettis, Hayes writes that China cannot profitably absorb more debt because investments do not yield returns that exceed the debt’s interest rate.
“It gets punted in the financial markets instead. Capital, by which I mean digital fiat credit money, is globally fungible. If China is printing yuan, it will make its way into the global markets and support the prices of all types of risk assets,” Hayes explains.
Hong Kong’s recent approval of a handful of licensed cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers means that Chinese companies and individual investors have the means to purchase Bitcoin.
Given that China was once a powerhouse Bitcoin mining nation, Hayes suggests that many Chinese investors are well acquainted with the asset and its “promise as a store of value,” stating:
“If there is a way to legally move cash from the Mainland to Hong Kong, Bitcoin will be one of many risk assets that will be purchased.”
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Vitalik Buterin: AI may surpass humans as the 'apex species'
Super-advanced artificial intelligence, left unchecked, has a “serious chance” of surpassing humans to become the next “apex species” of the planet, according Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
But that will boil down to how humans potentially intervene with AI developments, he said.
In a Nov. 27 blog post, Buterin, seen by some as a thought leader in the cryptocurrency space, argued AI is “fundamentally different” from other recent inventions — such as social media, contraception, airplanes, guns, the wheel, and the printing press — as AI can create a new type of “mind” that can turn against human interests, adding:
“AI is [...] a new type of mind that is rapidly gaining in intelligence, and it stands a serious chance of overtaking humans' mental faculties and becoming the new apex species on the planet.”
Buterin argued that unlike climate change, a man-made pandemic, or nuclear war, superintelligent AI could potentially end humanity and leave no survivors, particularly if it ends up viewing humans as a threat to its own survival.
“One way in which AI gone wrong could make the world worse is (almost) the worst possible way: it could literally cause human extinction.”
“Even Mars may not be safe,” Buterin added.
Buterin cited an August 2022 survey from over 4,270 machine learning researchers who estimated a 5-10% chance that AI kills humanity.
However, while Buterin stressed that claims of this nature are “extreme,” there are also ways for humans to prevail.
Brain interfaces and techno-optimism
Buterin suggested integrating brain-computer interfaces (BCI) to offer humans more control over powerful forms of AI-based computation and cognition.
A BCI is a communication pathway between the brain's electrical activity and an external device, such as a computer or robotic limb.
This would reduce the two-way communication loop between man and machine from seconds to milliseconds, and more importantly, ensure humans retain some degree of “meaningful agency” over the world, Buterin said.
Buterin suggested this route would be “safer” as humans could be involved in each decision made by the AI machine.
“We [can] reduce the incentive to offload high-level planning responsibility to the AI itself, and thereby reduce the chance that the AI does something totally unaligned with humanity's values on its own.”
The Ethereum co-founder also suggested “active human intention” to take AI in a direction that benefits humanity, as maximizing profit doesn’t always lead human down the most desirable pathway.
Buterin concluded that “we, humans, are the brightest star” in the universe, as we’ve developed technology to expand upon human potential for thousands of years, and hopefully many more to come:
“Two billion years from now, if the Earth or any part of the universe still bears the beauty of Earthly life, it will be human artifices like space travel and geoengineering that will have made it happen.”
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Bitcoin futures open interest on CME nears 2021 all-time high
Bitcoin futures open interest has reached $5.2 billion on the global derivatives giant Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), $200 million shy of its late October 2021 all-time high.
Open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures has grown from $3.63 billion to $5.20 billion over the last 30 days, to Coinglass data. The open interest surge has run parallel to Bitcoin’s 26% gain over the same time, with Bitcoin currently trading at just over $44,000.
From Oct. 1 to 21, 2021, open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures surged from $1.46 billion to $5.45 billion.
The rapid uptick in open interest also coincided with a drastic price jump for Bitcoin, which grew from $45,000 to $66,000.
IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph the open interest uptick shows a renewed interest in Bitcoin, but it doesn’t explain how CME traders are positioned.
Sycamore pointed to CME’s Nov. 28 report to the United States Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which showed the “big players” on its platform were sitting net short at the time, with 20,724 short positions compared to 18,979 longs, Sycamore explained.
Until CME’s latest report comes through on Tuesday, Dec. 12, Sycamore said investors won’t be able to see exactly how the players at CME are positioned.
“What we can’t see right now is whether the big players have gone from a net short to a net long, Sycamore said. “If we saw the market getting extremely long, you’d be very worried about a snapback. The market that we could see last week was short, so I don’t think we’re at that point yet.”
The massive uptick in Bitcoin’s price is being driven by more than just speculation around the SEC’s potential approval of a roster of spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) products, Sycamore added. A decision on the ETFs is pinned for early January.
“I think there’s got to be more driving this now. It’s not just the ETF or halving speculation anymore. This is starting to take on a life of its own.”
Sycamore said the recent Bitcoin rally could more closely be attributed to crypto’s relationship with the macro environment, looking to the Federal Reserve’s signal to begin cutting interest rates as a more significant driver of price action.
In November, CME nabbed the top spot in Bitcoin futures open interest from Binance, which many interpreted as a signal that traditional finance institutions were beginning to show a greater appetite for crypto products.
Many analysts believe a spot ETF approval will result in a rapid upward price tick for Bitcoin, but not everyone is convinced the current rally can stick, with some predicting a “sell the news” style event in the days and weeks following a potential approval.
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Institutional Funds to Ethereum Products Flips Green as Asset Trades Above $2,200
The bullish drive of institutional investors in recent weeks can be seen across several market metrics as digital assets soar to levels not recorded in months.
Ethereum (ETH) traded sideways for most of the year before soaring above $2,000 following the recent market uptick which has sent the wider market capitalization over $1.5 trillion and ignited bullish sentiments.
At press time, institutional investors’ funds in Ethereum products stand at $10 million year-to-date (YTD), turning the tide after several weeks in the woods while its assets under management (AUM) is over $8.8 billion.
The CoinShares Weekly assets flows recorded outflows from the altcoin giant for several weeks despite positives recorded on the main network in terms of developments.
Most analysts viewed the poor run of Ethereum as the massive slide recorded last year following wider economic factors and industry collapses. ETH plunged over 55% in 2022 alongside Bitcoin (BTC) as Federal Reserve policies, inflation factors, and the collapse of the Terra Network and FTX sent prices tumbling.
This year marked a renewed surge of institutional investors in the market but the majority of the growth was seen around Bitcoin as anticipation for a spot ETF grew following the application of BlackRock and other institutional giants with strong optimism that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a filing.
As a result, while Bitcoin products recorded inflows for weeks which now stand at over $1.6 billion YTD, Ethereum products have struggled with several weeks of outflows leading to net inflows of $10 million YTD.
Ethereum leads altcoin gains
Several analysts opined an uptick in the performance of ETH at the start of the year as a result of the network’s Merge which saw its transition of Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism. A recent survey showed that most wealth managers backed the asset as the crypto with the highest growth potential.
Last week, Ethereum saw inflows of $31 million extending the recent run of consecutive inflows to five weeks totaling $134 million outshining Solana (SOL) which was described as an altcoin favorite after weeks on consecutive inflows.
While ETF demand fueled the run of Bitcoin, the launch of several future Ethereum failed to drive the growth as predicted along many circles.
At press time, ETH trades above $2,200 with bulls locking sights on another run to end the year.
Bitcoin has continued to drive the market this year with surging investment fund figures with anticipation of an ETF approval and a bull run. Last week, institutional investors poured in $132 million igniting a positive momentum pushing DeFi figures above $46 billion and altcoins to yearly highs.
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Bloomberg Predicts Crypto Supercycle: Bitcoin Price Rally to $500K
The recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) price could be the beginning of a new crypto supercycle that propels the world’s largest cryptocurrency to an astonishing $500,000.
Enthusiasts believe that the recent surge in BTC price, which saw the leading cryptocurrency surpass $42,000, is indicative of a new monetary order that is captivating Wall Street and the digital-assets community, according to a Monday report from Bloomberg.
The excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s rally has fueled optimistic predictions about its future gains.
The prophecies for how high the coin could go spanned anywhere from $50,000 in the immediate term, to above $530,000, the report noted.
“It’s getting crazy again. Those kinds of comments show just how quickly sentiment can change for this asset class,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.
“I would argue that one of the most important reasons Bitcoin rallied so strongly in 2020 and 2021 was because of the massive influx of liquidity into the system due to the pandemic. Without another huge liquidity program, some of those predictions are a pipe dream.”
Market Participants Wait for ETF Approval
Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable revival in 2023, gaining over 150% so far this year.
Market-watchers are eagerly anticipating the approval of a Bitcoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, which could bring billions of dollars of new investments into the space.
The prospect of a BTC ETF has generated significant institutional enthusiasm and contributed to the shifting market dynamics observed since mid-October.
According to Kaiko researchers, there has been a rise in crypto investment products and an uptick in daily spot-trading volumes, reaching a seven-month high in November.
They claimed that the hope for a BTC ETF approval, combined with an improving macro environment, has fueled the recent market momentum.
While excitement about a broader crypto rally is spreading across social media platforms like X (formerly known as Twitter), it’s important to exercise caution.
Bitcoin has experienced multiple hype cycles in recent years, with gains celebrated even as the coin continues to climb toward its 2021 all-time high of approximately $69,000.
Past runs have ended with significant drops, as seen in the 64% decline in 2022 following a 60% gain in 2021.
Skeptics Remain Despite Soaring Prices
While the potential approval of a BTC ETF and the anticipation of interest rate cuts have fueled speculative frenzy, skepticism remains.
Michael O’Rourke, the chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said that those who missed out on the $20,000 rally might not be willing to pay double for Bitcoin simply because it is associated with an ETF.
He claimed that Bitcoin, in its 14-year existence, has primarily served as a speculative investment rather than demonstrating significant utility.
“The asset is purely speculative gambling and in the 14 years it has been around, it has not exhibited any true utility other than speculation and illicit money transfer.”
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BTC price levels to watch as Bitcoin whales ‘lure’ market to $42K
Bitcoin faces sharp volatility as the new week begins with BTC price action focusing on $42,000 — can it endure?
The largest cryptocurrency, fresh from weekend gains that topped 10%, is still keeping traders guessing over its next move.
While a trip to $40,000 was well anticipated, the question now is whether or not the latest move represents the beginning of a new trend or, conversely, a new bull trap.
Appraisals currently vary widely, with bullish and bearish perspectives battling for vindication.
BTC/USD is currently trading at around $41,600, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, having hit 19-month highs of $42,160 earlier on the day.
Bitcoin whales hit “sell” at $42,000
A cursory look at order book liquidity provides an immediate snapshot of where buyer support and seller interest lie.
Uploading the data to X (formerly Twitter) on Dec. 4, trading resource Material Indicators showed the strongest concentration of bids at $41,500 and $40,700 at the time of writing.
Little by way of significant sell pressure lay in wait immediately above spot price, with large-volume traders already selling into the rally. This, Material Indicators suggests, is no coincidence.
“As I’ve been saying all week, I thought Bitcoin would continue to climb as long as whales could keep attracting bid liquidity to the range, or they lured enough to distribute into,” it explained in accompanying commentary.
“They succeeded in attracting over $120M to the active trading range so wasn’t surprised to wake up to BTC taking out $42k, before the selling began.”
The analysis added that selling cooled once buy walls had disappeared, with $86 million nonetheless sold off in just 30 minutes.
“Not sure the party is over just yet. A new $30M block of bid liquidity just showed up to potentially continue the game,” it noted.
Liquidity data from statistics resource CoinGlass, meanwhile, showed $42,420 as a nearby area of interest for derivatives on the largest global exchange, Binance, after the Dec. 4 Wall Street open.
Long-term BTC price levels remain as valid as ever
Zooming out, there is no denying the psychological gravitas of historical BTC price levels.
For Scott Melker, the trader, analyst and podcast host who himself has witnessed the emergence of many such lines in the sand, these are as important as ever.
“$42K is historically one of the most important levels for Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers on Dec. 4.
An accompanying chart mapped out the key price points to pay attention to, these variously acting as magnets since their creation — some over two years ago.
For instance, $42,000 represents the initial rejection price from early 2021, when BTC/USD rose sharply on news that electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla had added Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
“It was the dead top of the ‘Tesla’ pump in January of 2021, and acted as both support and resistance countless times after,” Melker explained.
Elsewhere on the chart lie $31,860, $28,050 and $25,200 — all important support and resistance levels since their initial creation from 2021 onward.
To the upside, $48,240, $51,790 and, naturally, the all-time high of $69,000 feature as psychologically pertinent resistance levels for market sentiment.
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South Korean financial authorities solicit reports on unlicensed crypto exchanges
Financial regulators in South Korea released an update on Dec. 4 asking users to report any unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges offering services to users in the region.
The Digital Asset Exchange Association (DAXA) and the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of South Korea collaborated on the initiative. DAXA includes five of the major virtual asset exchanges operating in the country, such as Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Gopax.
According to the regulators, the goal of receiving these reports is to find domestic and foreign virtual asset business operators targeting Korean citizens and not working per Article 7 of the Specific Financial Information Act.
Reports will first be reviewed by DAXA, and then the results will be forwarded to the FIU, after which it will respond to the former to determine the status of the operator and whether it needs to be notified.
An official from DAXA said that if operators continue to engage in “undeclared business activities,” then the FIU “plans to take necessary measures, including notifying the investigative agency.”
DAXA said reports can be filed through its tip email address, and should include all the information related to the business, reasons for suspicion, and evidence of its undeclared business activities.
This development comes as South Korea continues to ramp up its involvement in the crypto industry. On Nov. 14, the Democratic Party of South Korea mandated that its parliamentary candidates must disclose any personal crypto holdings for “transparency” purposes.
In October, the South Korean Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) announced it is beginning preparations for regulations to supplement the Virtual Asset Users Protection Act, which was passed earlier in 2023. According to the FSS, the new regulations are anticipated to be in place by January 2024.
On Nov. 23, South Korea’s central bank announced that it plans to invite 100,000 citizens to test out its forthcoming central bank digital currency (CBDC) in 2024.
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BTC price nears $40K as as Bitcoin trader eyes return to all-time high
Bitcoin held closer to the $40,000 mark on Dec. 3 after weekend gains reinforced a “strong” uptrend.
Bitcoin leaves $60 million in shorts hanging
Data tracked a fresh BTC price surge, which took BTC/USD to new 2023 highs of $39,730.
These built on upward momentum, which had entered days prior, as Bitcoin hit $39,000 for the first time since mid-2022.
With derivatives leading into the end of the Wall Street trading week, commentators had argued that spot buyers needed to step up to maintain momentum. Events ultimately took an unexpected turn, with a snap surge across Bitcoin and altcoins wiping previous resistance.
In part of coverage on X (formerly Twitter), popular trader Skew suggested that “someone just ran all shorts across the board seemingly on most pairs.”
This in turn placed BTC price behavior around the weekly open in question — CME Bitcoin futures closed the week at $39,225, leaving a gap between there and spot price, which would normally be “filled” via a dip.
Analyzing the status quo, however, fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades predicted that this time would be different.
“Whenever $BTC is in a strong trend (up or down) and especially when it's trading at yearly highs or price discovery. You tend to have these weekend moves that break out and leave a lot of people behind. Often creating a gap that never gets closed or not until weeks later,” part of an X postexplained.
“During strong trending environments, trading the CME price doesn't have a very strong edge anymore. It's amazing during sideways chop but not like this.”
Daan Crypto Trades agreed that the area around the Friday closing price had offered an opportunity to “trap” shorters.
“Due to me thinking it was pretty likely to see a big move occur during the weekend, I did not share the usual CME chart. So far the suspicion was correct and people trying to short this move would have been rekt,” he wrote.
Data from statistics resource CoinGlass showed around $30 million in BTC shorts liquidated on both Dec. 1 and Dec. 2.
BTC price in "all-the-way-UP mode"
With $40,000 in sight, meanwhile, market participants turned their attention to bullish signals on longer timeframes.
For popular Twitter commentator Alan Tardigrade, BTC/USD was well out of a downward channel in place since its November 2021 all-time high of $69,000.
“Bitcoin has entered All-the-way-UP mode,” he commented on a chart showing how recent BTC price action had decisively exited the trend.
Fellow commentator BitQuant, known for his bullish takes on Bitcoin in the current environment, eyed a return to the highs before “some correction” could take hold.
Both perspectives channeled behavior from previous Bitcoin bull markets.
In September, BitQuant made the bold prediction of BTC/USD beating its record highs before the next block subsidy halving in April 2024 — just four months away.
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Bitcoin ETFs, user experience will drive adoption — eToro CEO
While grassroots cryptocurrency adoption went stale after last year’s implosions in the industry, trading platform eToro’s chief executive believes that the appeal of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for institutions and ease of investing through various platforms for non-professionals could further drive Bitcoin (BTC) adoption.
EToro CEO Yoni Assia told Cointelegraph at the recent Abu Dhabi Finance Week that institutions typically have rigid systems and prefer not to build new infrastructure for each asset class. However, for him, products like Bitcoin ETFs align with their existing modes of operation, making it easier for them to enter the market without developing new frameworks. He explained:
“[Bitcoin] ETFs could be a significant driver of adoption [because]... institutions work in a very rigid way… They’re looking for the same infrastructure, and ETF, in many cases, is that infrastructure to enable institutional demand to those who don’t want to self-custody.”
Assia added that the availability of a Bitcoin ETF would likely bolster Bitcoin’s legitimacy in the eyes of institutional investors and, in turn, could support the asset’s price as it represents a familiar and institutionalized form of investment.
Bitcoin surpassed $35,000 in October, a price not seen since May 2021, partly due to excitement around spot ETF approvals. The leading crypto by market capitalization has since hovered between $37,000 and $38,000.
Meanwhile, according to Assia, the ease of investing in Bitcoin through user-friendly platforms and its integrations into diverse investment portfolios are crucial to onboarding more retail users into the market.
“On the retail level, it’s all about the user experience, simplicity, and the ability to embed crypto investments and crypto trading in a wider portfolio,” he said, adding:
“[This] is what we believe crypto should be — an investment that’s a part of a more holistic investment view of investing in the stock markets,… yield products... and commodities.”
A September report from blockchain research firm Chainalysis shows that despite a decrease in worldwide grassroots crypto adoption, lower-middle-income countries, such as India, Nigeria, and Ukraine, saw the most recovery in grassroots crypto adoption over the last year.
According to the study, the numbers are “extremely promising” for crypto’s prospects, paired with the increasing institutional adoption driven by organizations in high-income countries.
“I think, generally, Bitcoin’s adoption is about people understanding the need for non-confiscatable, censorship-resistant internet money,” Assia said. “And that only grows over time.”
The executive believes that more people will understand why they need to accumulate crypto the same way some investors deal in gold and other commodities:
“[Crypto] is still an emerging internet commodity, and we’ll continue to see increased interest over time in Bitcoin for the next ten years. I have no doubt that in 10 years, it’s going to [have] higher prices and [be] a more significant force in the world.
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Brazilian Senate OKs ‘15% Crypto Tax Rate’
Brazilian senators have voted in favor of a bill that proposes taxing crypto tax profits earned on overseas crypto platforms at a fixed rate of 15%.
Per the parliamentary website and a report from Brazil’s Livecoins, lawmakers “seriously amended” the bill to ensure no loopholes were included.
Should the bill become law, users of international crypto exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and Kucoin will need to declare their earnings.
The law is slated to come into force on January 1, 2024. It will require Brazilian crypto investors to declare these gains “separately from other income and capital gains.”
Some more active crypto traders will breathe a sigh of relief, however.
The amended bill replaces an initial proposal for a “sliding scale”-type structure.
Under this proposal, those earning less than $1,200 from crypto trading on overseas platforms would have been exempt from taxation.
But crypto traders earning over $10,140 per year would have faced tax bills of over 22%.
The Brazilian Congress and Chamber of Deputies in Brasília, Brazil. (Source: Uri Rosenheck [CC BY-SA 3.0])
Brazilian Crypto Traders Bracing for New Tax Bills
Livecoins quoted Ana Paula Rabello, an accountant specializing in crypto, as saying the bill includes a clause that classifies crypto wallets as “overseas financial applications.”
This bill stipulates that the Special Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil – the country’s tax service – will be given regulatory powers.
The amended bill also includes a clause that requires all companies that have a presence in Brazil and handle crypto to “provide periodic reports on their activities and their customers.”
This will apply to all firms active in the nation, no matter where they are headquartered.
The firms will have to submit their reports to the Federal Revenue Service and another financial watchdog, the Financial Activities Control Council.
Ismael Decol, the legal head of Declare Cripto, explained that the law also contains “no provisions” for traders who want to write off their losses.
However, Decol claimed that “the Federal Revenue Service, the Central Bank, and other regulatory bodies” still needed to “fill in the gaps and provide further clarification.”
He noted that failure to do so would prevent the legislation from “becoming clearer to users and investors.”
Unless lawmakers raise additional objections to the bill, it will be passed to the President’s office.
The President will then have 15 working days to decide whether to approve or veto the bill.
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Just In: Billionaire Michael Saylor Purchases a Further $593 Million in Bitcoin – Total Holdings Now Exceeding $5 Billion
Michael Saylor, billionaire CEO of enterprise analytics firm MicroStrategy, has once again demonstrated his unwavering commitment to Bitcoin by purchasing an additional $593 million worth of the cryptocurrency.
In a tweet posted on November 30, Saylor revealed that MicroStrategy acquired 16,130 Bitcoins at an average price of $36,785 per coin. This brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 174,530 BTC purchased for approximately $5.28 billion at an average price of $30,252 per Bitcoin.
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Turkish Crypto Exchange Associated with Hull City Sponsorship at Center of Fraud Scandal
The owner of the cryptocurrency exchange Tomya, which sponsors the sports team of the famous television producer Acun Ilıcalı, Hull City, Yavuz Usta, and economist Ece Pulaş, have been arrested as part of an investigation conducted by the Istanbul Büyükçekmece Public Prosecutor’s Office.
The investigation aims to shed light on potential fraudulent activities associated with Tomya, a cryptocurrency exchange that gained recognition through its sponsorship of the Hull City football team owned by Acun Ilıcalı.
According to Halktv’s Dinçer Gökçe, a citizen named Musa Ekmekçioğlu claimed to have been defrauded of $211,500 by Muammer Uslu, who claimed he worked at Tomya. According to reports, Uslu introduced Ekmekçioğlu to Halil Demir, the manager of the forex system called ‘İdol FX.’ When Ekmekçioğlu did not receive the expected returns on his investment, he filed a complaint, leading to a detailed five-month investigation.
The operation resulted in the detention of 25 individuals out of a total of 32 on the list, with 11 referred to the peace criminal judge with a request for arrest. Notable figures among those arrested include Yavuz Usta, the owner of Tomya Teknoloji AŞ, and economist Ece Pulaş, who briefly worked as a consultant at the company.
Ece Pulaş’s lawyer stated that his client provides consultancy and training in capital markets and does not have any partnership or signing authority with the companies involved in the investigation or Tomya. He emphasized that Pulaş only conducted training for a short period of about five weeks.
Former Thodex CEO Faces Over 11,000 Years in Turkish Prison as the Country Prepares for Crypto Legislation
Details on the investigation are emerging as the country prepares to introduce crypto legislation. Turkey recently handed out an 11,196-year sentence to the individuals who ran Thodex, a crypto exchange that suddenly collapsed in 2021.
Thodex was one of Turkey’s largest crypto exchanges before it suddenly went offline in April 2021, and Özer went missing. Over 400,000 members were left in the dark without access to deposits of $2 billion in cryptocurrencies. Özer had fled to Albania but was arrested in August 2022 after an Interpol red notice was issued against him.
By April 2023, Özer was deported to Turkey and detained by police upon arrival on seven charges, including establishing and managing an organization with the purpose of committing a crime, being a member of an organization, fraud by using information systems as a tool of banks or credit institutions, fraud of merchants or company executives and cooperative managers, and laundering the value of assets resulting from crime.
Despite the Thodex scandal, crypto adoption in the country has yet to show signs of slowing down. According to a research survey conducted by KuCoin, over the last year and a half, crypto adoption has increased from 40 percent to 52 percent of the Turkish population. 71 percent of investors said they own Bitcoin, while 45 percent own Ethereum and other stablecoins.
Also, the Turkish government has been exploring the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) called the Digital Lira, signaling the nation’s evolving stance on digital finance.
Turkey Aims to Regulate Crypto Market with a Focus on Licensing and Taxation
In a bid to address concerns raised by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and move off the international financial crime watchdog’s “grey list,” Turkey is set to introduce new rules to regulate the crypto market. Officials suggest that the regulations are likely to emphasize licensing and taxation, with the goal of preventing abuse of the system and ensuring compliance with FATF recommendations.
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Jack Dorsey wants to decentralize Bitcoin mining with new investment
Twitter (now X) co-founder and Bitcoin advocate Jack Dorsey is backing a new BTC mining pool to help miners regain control of block rewards and transaction fees.
Dorsey has led a $6.2 million seed round for Mummolin, the parent company of the new decentralization Bitcoin mining pool called Ocean, according to an announcement on Nov. 29.
The seed funding will support the launch of Ocean, which is designed to decentralize and reshape the process of Bitcoin mining. The mining pool specifically aims to provide more mining process transparency and enable miners to receive block rewards directly from Bitcoin rather than from BTC mining pools.
Luke Dashjr, Mummolin co-founder and long-time Bitcoin Core developer, believes that the role of mining pools must change for Bitcoin to exist as a truly decentralized currency.
“Ocean is a new type of pool that enables miners to be truly miners again. We are launching as the most transparent pool and also the only noncustodial pool where miners are the recipients of new block rewards directly from Bitcoin,” Dashjr stated.
Mummolin co-founder and president Mark Artymko stressed that traditional BTC mining pools take exclusive custody of block rewards and transaction fees before distributing them among miners. “This gives them the ability to withhold payment from individual miners, whether by their own choice or by legal requirement,” Artymko said, adding:
“OCEAN's non-custodial payouts directly to miners from the block reward remove this risk and the pool's undue influence over miners.”
Committed Ocean supporter Dorsey is confident that the platform will solve the problem of further centralization of pools and mining pools that could plague Bitcoin. He noted:
“When I see a project that is good for Bitcoin broadly, and that's also good for me and my companies personally, it becomes a simple decision for me and I'm happy to be a part of it.”
The launch of Ocean was announced at the Future of Bitcoin Mining Conference in the shadows of Barefoot Mining’s 150-year-old hydroelectric dam in rural South Carolina. Barefoot Mining, the first client of Ocean, has fully repurposed the dam, converting excess energy to Bitcoin mining at scale.
Ocean's launch comes 139 days before Bitcoin's fourth halving event, expected to occur on April 17, 2024. After the halving, the current 6.25 mining reward per block will drop to 3.125 BTC, significantly decreasing incentives for Bitcoin miners.
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Tether’s ‘new era for capital raises’ Bitfinex bond flops
Bitfinex’s recently launched Tether tokenized bond, hailed as a “new era for capital raises,” appears to have failed to garner the investment and interest the firm anticipated.
Bitfinex Securities, a platform focused on listing tokenized real-world assets (RWA), announced its first tokenized bond in October, called ALT2611 Tokenized Bond, with the product going live on Nov. 15.
However, after a two-week offer period, only $1.5 million of a $10 million target has been raised, according to the official website.
The target of 100,000 ALT2611 worth 10 million USDT was set for two weeks after launch in the announcement, but it appears to have been extended by another fortnight as just 15,000 ALT2611, or 15% of the target has been reached so.
ALT2611 is a 36-month 10% coupon bond denominated in USDT and issued by Alternative, a Luxembourg-based securitization fund, managed by Mikro Kapital.
Tokenized bonds are digital representations of traditional bonds issued on the blockchain, which provides several advantages over their traditional paper counterparts, such as liquidity, accessibility, security, transparency, and 24/7 trading.
The minimum initial purchase size was 125,000 USDT, with secondary market trading in denominations of 100 USDT. Moreover, ALT2611 is not offered or made available to American citizens or persons present in the U.S.
Crypto trader Novacula Occami commented, “Bitfinex’s first USDT bond issue is a flop,” before adding, “Sorry Paolo, USDT ain’t going to dominate capital markets. BitFinex Securities Kazakhstan isn’t keeping investment bankers up at night.”
However, when it launched, Tether chief technology officer Paolo Ardoino labeled it as a “new era for capital raises” that would see USDT become the “underlying denomination asset of this new financial system.”
The Bitfinex tokenized bond was issued on the Liquid Network, a high throughput Bitcoin sidechain.
In April, Bitfinex Securities received a Digital Asset Service Provider license in El Salvador, which has been looking into issuing its own Bitcoin bonds.
Sovereign dollar bonds in the Central American country have been performing solidly, with a 70% return in 2023 as reported in August.
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11th anniversary of Bitcoin’s first halving: From $12 to $37,000
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, experienced its first-ever halving 11 years ago today. As the community celebrates the anniversary of the first Bitcoin halving, it’s timely to revisit some of Bitcoin’s historical milestones ahead of the next halving expected in April 2024.
The first Bitcoin transaction occurred nearly 15 years ago on Jan. 3, 2009, a few months after the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, published the Bitcoin white paper in October 2008.
On Nov. 28, 2012 — three years and 10 months after Bitcoin’s first block was mined — the first-ever halving event took place. At the time, BTC traded at around $12, according to data from StatMuse, or 308,200% below Bitcoin’s current price, according to data from CoinGecko.
Though Bitcoin’s halving and the digital currency’s 21 million supply cap are not directly described in Nakamoto’s white paper, the document still hintsat certain mechanisms to control the creation of new BTC. The white paper reads:
“To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the proof-of-work difficulty is determined by a moving average targeting an average number of blocks per hour. If they’re generated too fast, the difficulty increases.”
Unlike some basic information in the Bitcoin white paper, the halving aspect is mentioned in the Bitcoin source code. The halving is specifically available on the Bitcoin Core GitHub repository on the validation.cpp file and indicates the miner’s block subsidy is “cut in half every 210,000 blocks, which will occur every four years.”
The Bitcoin halving mechanism had been programmed into the BTC mining algorithm to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcity.
Before the first halving occurred, miners were compensated with as much as 50 BTC per block. After the first halving event in 2012, the subsidy was slashed to 25 BTC, followed by the second halving in 2016, which reduced the subsidy to 12.5 BTC. The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in 2020, cutting the block subsidy from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
As Bitcoin halvings significantly increase the cryptocurrency’s scarcity, the Bitcoin price cycle has been historically impacted by halvings. Just a year after its first-ever halving, Bitcoin had risen to nearly $1,000, while the second halving triggered a 350% surge during the year after the event, with BTC subsequently rallying to then all-time highs of nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
In the aftermath of the third Bitcoin halving, BTC surged to its all-time high of almost $69,000 in November 2021.
The anniversary of the first Bitcoin halving comes as the cryptocurrency community awaits the fourth Bitcoin halving, which is now expected to occur on April 17, 2024. Many Bitcoin advocates are especially bullish on the Bitcoin price in 2024 amid growing expectations that United States securities regulators could finally approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
The 2024 halving won’t be the last one, though. Bitcoin miner reward is expected to be halved 34 times until it reaches 0 BTC after all 21 million Bitcoin are mined. Based on the current schedule, the maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoin will be reached around 2140.
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Kronos Research Enters Negotiations with Hacker After $25 Million Cryptocurrency Theft, Offers 10% Bounty
Taipei-based cryptocurrency trading and investment firm Kronos Research has initiated negotiations with the hacker responsible for the recent theft of $25 million from the company’s treasury.
In a public message addressed to the unknown attacker, Kronos Research offered the hacker to return 90% of the stolen funds, and the matter would be dropped, on-chain data shows.
As reported, Kronos Research reported an unauthorized breach of its API keys last key, which allowed the hacker to gain access to the firm’s funds.
Onchain experts ZachXBT and Lookonchain later confirmed that the attacker absconded with approximately $25 million, primarily consisting of stablecoins.
“At present, we can confirm that the losses are about $26 million in crypto assets, and despite it being a sizable amount, Kronos remains in good standing. All losses will be covered internally, and no partners will be affected,” the firm posted on X.
Public Conversation Between Hackers and Victims Become a Trend
This public negotiation between hackers and their victims has become a recurring trend.
Recently, the hacker involved in the KyberSwap exploit even signed one of the transactions that siphoned funds from the decentralized exchange, expressing a willingness to commence discussions when fully rested.
KyberSwap responded by offering a 10% bounty as an incentive for the return of the stolen funds.
In a similar vein, Curve Finance previously proposed a 10% bounty to hackers in exchange for the restitution of pilfered cryptocurrencies. These negotiations were conducted through transaction signatures.
According to DeFiLlama, decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols have suffered thefts amounting to over $1.2 billion this year alone.
Hacks Continue to Take Victims
Hacks and scams have been a major issue in the crypto space.
According to a report by blockchain security platform Immunefi, there were 76 hacks on crypto and Web3 projects and firms in Q3 2023, a significant increase compared to the 30 hacks reported in the same period in 2022.
In total, approximately $332 million has been lost to various exploits, hacks, and scams throughout September, marking a record-high month for crypto exploits.
Earlier this month, DeFi platform Raft also suffered a hack resulting in the loss of approximately $3.3 million in Ethereum ( ETH).
Raft’s hack marked the second major crypto exploit on the same day. Earlier, an attacker drained approximately $114 million in digital assets from the centralized exchange Poloniex.
More recently, security firm SlowMist issued a warning about a wave of crypto thefts orchestrated by fake journalists.
The company said the first instance of this malicious campaign was reported on October 14 when a Twitter user named Masiwei alerted the community about a targeted attack on friend.tech for account theft.
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'Enjoy sub-$40K Bitcoin' — PlanB stresses $100K average BTC price from 2024
Bitcoin buyers should “enjoy” the chance to add to their stack below $40,000, says one of crypto’s household names.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 24, PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow family of BTC price models, hinted that current levels would not be around long.
PlanB: Time is ticking on $40,000 resistance
Bitcoin is destined to go much higher than its recent 18-month highs, PlanB believes, and time is ticking to increase BTC exposure below $40,000.
Known for his optimistic takes on long-term BTC price growth, PlanB this time used realized price data to support the case for bulls.
Realized price is Bitcoin’s realized cap — the sum total price at which all BTC last moved — divided by the current supply. It is currently at just below $21,000.
Bitcoin bear market bottoms are characterized by spot price dipping below realized price, while bull markets have begun once spot crosses the two-year and five-month realized price levels. These refer to the realized price of coins which last moved within either the last two years or five months — “younger” coins.
BTC/USD is now once again above all three realized price iterations.
“Enjoy sub-$40k bitcoin ... while it lasts,” PlanB thus commented on an accompanying chart.
Asked whether the market should expect lower levels from here, PlanB would not be drawn, saying that he simply expected an average BTC price of at least $100,000 between 2024 and 2028 — Bitcoin’s next halving cycle.
Bitcoin hodlers bet on six figures
While PlanB has fielded criticism over Stock-to-Flow — and conceded that Bitcoin was not able to live up to his expectations during its 2021 bull market — six-figure predictions for the next cycle are increasingly common.
As reported, these are coalescing around an area with $130,000 as its focus for the end of 2025.
The halving itself, meanwhile, due in April 2024, should produce a return to around $46,000, further analysis says.
Earlier this month, PlanB described Bitcoin as being in a “pre-bull market” phase, with the real launch yet to come.
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