A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 июля 2024 18:22

Gold 4H Chart:

Today's CPI report really helped the bulls out - we see price breaking through resistance, and I've trailed stops further into profit in VIP.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 июля 2024 15:08

🚨This morning's CPI came in lighter than expected

Unemployment claims also came in lower than expected

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 июля 2024 21:13

On a long term trend of the S&P, price is up against the top of a channel on the 1D timeframe. A break in this could lead to a completion of the move higher towards the $5,700-800s level where there is another long term trend line. We have to keep in mind that tomorrow's CPI is going to be another catalyst for the stock market.

If CPI comes in hotter, the markets may react negatively and respect the current trend line resistance. If CPI is sticky or edges lower, it may boost price above this line. If the melt up isn't over, we could still see another 3+% to the upside on the SPX500. The market needs a reason to turn lower, and if inflation can't give the bears a green light, it's going to be hard to think of this current price level as the top. -Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

09 июля 2024 22:00

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

09 июля 2024 19:16

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

09 июля 2024 18:20

S&P 500
Markets push higher as we approach CPI data on Thursday. Fed chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak today and tomorrow as well. More questions about the economy and the Fed’s policy for the rest of the year will likely not be answered by Powell. He has remained extremely vague and neutral to the data to avoid any market stir, but investors are anticipating a Fed cut this September.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 20:41

This CPI study shows us the trends in Europe and US over the past 3 years. Although both inflation rates could be experiencing sticky behavior, the US is struggling to dip under 3% inflation unlike Europe.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 19:09

Retail is majority long the dollar which is a sign that the dollar will be weaker. Indices are mixed with gold while oil is getting bought by the crowd.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 18:47

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 18:08

We are now entering the turning point in quantitative tightening around the world. A global drop in CPI from 2022 has many banks looking to cut if they haven't done so already. The reason gold has struggled to move is likely due to the dollar waiting longer than the rest to cut.

However, looking forward, it seems that these rates are going to be lower. And this trend will continue for the next few years. Once gold gets confirmation from the Fed that they're cutting regardless of the economic condition, it should be bullish for gold.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 июля 2024 13:59

This week was a big week for traders anticipating rate cuts.

We saw jobs materially slow (NFP revisions + unemployment rate ticking up were the key here), PCE & PPI are showing signs of inflation cooling, and it's an election year in the US, EU, and UK (as well as others).

However - CPI is coming up, and will really nail in rate cuts, or push them back.

In my view, metals look good currently in either scenario...

If we see a slide in CPI lower, rate cuts will come sooner and a continued selloff in the dollar would be strong for gold.

However, if we see CPI tick up or disobey the rest of the data... concerns about stagflation may flair up again, also good for gold.

The market is smart, and already knows this. I believe that's part of the reason why gold rallied so strong the last few days.

Jobs starting to slide is only good news if inflation goes with it!

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 июля 2024 18:02

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 июля 2024 15:54

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 июля 2024 14:26

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 июля 2024 19:56

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 июля 2024 17:42

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- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

11 июля 2024 14:59

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

10 июля 2024 16:52

GBP/USD
GU works its way back to a double top on the 4H timeframe on pound strength. Powell’s remarks yesterday were still dovish as he said holding rates too high for too long can be damaging to the economy. This further reinforced an interest rate cut this year which is expected to come as soon as September. Meanwhile, the BoE remains hawkish to monetary policy as they decided to keep rates the same even after reaching their inflation target. In the race to cut interest rates, US might do so before the UK.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

09 июля 2024 19:34

GBP/USD
Will one cut even do anything for the US economy? No, probably not. I think what investors want to see is the start of the cutting trend so we can anticipate lower rates in the next few years. The BoE, on the other hand, is now at 2% inflation and still won’t cut. The pound looks stronger than the dollar right now. GU has closed above a strong, long-term wedge pattern.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

09 июля 2024 18:21

Gold
Gold works its way higher and nears the all time highs while Powell testifies. There is lots of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates regardless of where inflation sits and where it’s projected. Regardless of the reason to cut, gold will likely see some bullishness from investors due to a weaker dollar.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 20:49

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- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 19:45

A Smart Money study suggests that both institutions and retail are pulling out of the euro. This is not a good sign for the EU pair which is currently a strong bullish bias on the EF.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 18:49

NASDAQ 1D Chart:

Price still looks very strong overall, with technology continuing to lead the way.

If price pulls back, I may look to add to my technology exposure.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 18:40

Seeing strong biases against the dollar on both sides is very telling. Regardless of ECB's decision to cut rates, a handful of factors point towards a bullish euro. The dollar seems to be more sensitive to sentiment driven factors such as CPI.

If we get signs of cooling inflation, the EU bulls will be happy. If inflation looks sticky or ticks higher, it will add to the rate cut uncertainty in September.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

08 июля 2024 17:27

AUDUSD is the strongest Bullish reading on the EdgeFinder at +11. Almost every metric points towards Aussie strength over the dollar. CPI was higher for AUD, so it currently has a positive score on the pair. However, this could change come Thursday.

A major reason AU is seeing more bullish demand could be due to the fact that RBA kept rates unchanged in their last bank meeting. Meanwhile, there are high hopes for a 25 bp cut in the US in September.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 июля 2024 13:46

Stopped out on Bitcoin!

Not every trade is a winner.

I will look for a better entry if price begins to find support / breakouts.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 июля 2024 17:26

Lesson learned— Stick to YOUR strategy 🏆

It's not about this 1 trade, its about the next 1000. A great blackjack player doesn't bet anything on their next hand, they have to let their edge play out over many many iterations. Same in trading.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 июля 2024 15:42

The EdgeFinder was absolutely spot on this week!

Dollar bearishness, metals bullishness, stock bullishness

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 июля 2024 20:24

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 июля 2024 17:39

NASDAQ
Stocks are coming off the new highs this morning in premarket after ADP payrolls came in lower than expected and unemployment claims slightly rose. Private payrolls have been steady since the start of this year, but have declined significantly from last July. Keeping the jobs market cool was part of the Fed’s plan to help battle inflation, and now that it is not really moving in the past 6 months, it could be good news for the stock market. However, we also noticed that stagnant jobs data and inflation are looking correlated. Maybe the jobs market needs to decline further to see a drop in CPI numbers. Powell spoke yesterday stating that they need more confidence in inflation before they begin cutting rates. Home prices remain elevated too. Although CPI is lower since 2022, there are still areas of the market that need to become cheaper in order to make the Fed dovish on rates.