Gold, 4H Chart:
While this trend has gone on for some time, it isn't over just yet!
Support continues to hold for the bulls, and I would say the bullish trend is intact unless we break the support zone in green around the 2325 price area.
- Nick
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US retail sales beat expectations and rose above last month's report. This might be more bullish for the dollar than the indices, however. As higher inflation rates are expected from this report, the trend of CPI may continue to beat expectations at a concerning rate for the Fed which wants to start monetary easing this year.
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Retail is now long on several risk-favoring assets such as crypto, Russell (small caps) and NASDAQ. Gold is still mixed, SPX and GER30 are the top short positions from the crowd.
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USDJPY is the same way as the US has a much higher interest rate. Price finally broke a significant line of resistance on the 1D timeframe. If the pair came back to the 151.5 level, it could be a buying opportunity for those looking to long.
Otherwise, chasing price could difficult. After breaking the highs, the uptrend will have to take a breather before seeming like another buying opportunity. Right now, price is the highest it's been since the '90s. The next level of resistance is around 160.
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Is the pullback FINALLY here...?!
Stocks selling off today on geo-political tension, stock earnings season started out dissapointing, and fed rate cuts are in question.
Looks like next week could be interesting... - Nick
EURUSD still has a negative 2 inflation score after Europe announced lower inflation and the US reported higher inflation. This means that the ECB is likely going to take a less restrictive monetary stance than the Fed.
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Not much has changed for retail. They are still long metals, Russell, and short dollar. Oil is mixed along with gold and US30. The majority short positions are NAS, SPX, UK100, GER30 and USDJPY.
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CHFJPY is touching support on the 4H timeframe after taking a steep fall in price from yesterday's surprise SNB rate cut. Japan's and Switzerland's central banks have now surprised the markets, but in a dovish manner. CHF is working to ease the monetary cycle while Japan is just starting to tighten their policy. If Japan's economy starts to grow, yen demand may as well. -Frank
Читать полностью…GU shows increasing retail sentiment along with declining COT support. The recent downside this week could be a sign that price shifted to the downside already.
-Frank
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GU's score flip could spell bearishness on the pair. After what seemed like a dovish hearing from the Fed yesterday, the score sunk lower to -5 today. Retail is now majority long which is unusual to see. The talks of rate cuts could still fuel a rally against the dollar.
If the dollar flips to a weak sentiment as a result of rate cut expectations remaining unchanged, we could be looking at bullish GU, commodities and indices (and bitcoin).
-Frank
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COT data came in mixed for last week's sentiment data. Metals are long, US indices long, dollar is long bonds are long. They are shorting gold, bitcoin, silver, Russell, oil, and a number of currencies.
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USDCAD is one of the strongest bullish biases on the EdgeFinder right now at +12. The score changed by 8 points to the upside with help from COT, Services PMI, and jobs numbers. This is seasonally one of the worst months of the year, but this time might be different.
Canada is set to report their CPI numbers tomorrow which is expected to come in higher on a month-to-month basis. If CPI does come in higher, it may spark some bullishness around CAD which is still expected to cut much sooner than the US. However, BOC may have to wait on it if inflation does end up coming in hotter.
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Retail Sales came in higher than expected which is a good sign for the economy. It's also strong for the USD as it may indicate a further rise in inflation over time. The pair's score increased by 7 points with help from COT data and unemployment data.
CHF is getting heavily sold from last week's report as investors see higher-for-longer interest rates in the US. A longer period of this will help the carry trade for the bulls on this pair so investors may want to keep piling in this asset as well as others that have low or lowering interest rates.
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COT has kind of flatlined on bullish sentiment while retail has gone heavily long in the past week. This is an indication that EURUSD will probably experience continued weakness as a result.
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A -2 score on USDJPY's interest rate category is due to the BOJ expecting higher rates over the next few quarters while the Fed remained steadfast in their rate cut projections this year.
- Frank
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It now appears that retail traders are bullish on crypto, metals and currencies against the dollar. Oil remains mixed, gold mixed. There is significant short interest in the retail crowd on the US and foreign indices.
-Frank
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Gold flew higher to unexplored territory this morning but only to pull back near the open. Metals and indices have been overextended for some time now, but it still might not be the end of the rally. Investors were concerned of a more hawkish Fed statement yesterday which didn't arrive.
If price can stay above support at $2,148, it may continue to move back towards today's highs at $2,222. The 2 year yield is up today, however, which could be driving the metals back lower. -Frank