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The S&P is down today after bouncing from a key level of support. Price is now 10% off the highs as sellers still seem to control the market for now. SPX500 got a neutral reading on the EdgeFinder from being a strong bearish score, however. Stronger economic numbers and slower wage growth is helping the score leave bearish territory. -Frank
Читать полностью…The majority of retail traders are bearish USD with the exception of USDCHF. USDJPY and USDCAD are the most shorted pair of the majors while the most longed are NZDUSD, AUDUSD, and GPBUSD. -Frank
Читать полностью…Here's what I'm looking at this week in terms of index trading:
Looking at all three components completing the move lower on the 1D timeframes. I'm not really looking for anything from ADP or JOLTS this week. They're news will likely breach market volatility but what really matters to me is NFP on Friday. I'm expecting that the Fed will remain at 5.5% which they have done for some time now. We've seen hourly earnings growth remain at low levels for the past 2 months as well. Due to expectations being much lower than last month's NFP, I have been looking to buy SPX but wanted to see how the day panned out. Right now, an entry looks reasonable especially where we are price-wise. Right up against support so SLs can be tight as price is still 10ish% off the highs, more reward to risk based on this position. -Frank
AUDUSD is still in the bearish camp at -5 yet price has moved up near a level of resistance. Recent dollar bearishness has caused many dollar pairs to slide regardless of higher yields over the 5% mark. ADP and NFP come out this week, which will likely spook the market.
Sentiment is mixed for both metrics. ADP numbers are expected to come in hotter than last month while Friday's number is tremendously lower. Although ADP NFP is wrong quite often when predicting actual payroll numbers, a miss will still likely be a positive move for the pair while a beat could cause further drawdown. - Frank
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After my profitable trade last week on Silver, I will be looking for another opportunity to get long this week, if we see a break to the upside.
Why silver?
- I'm overall bullish on the economy, with many metrics beating expectations (PMI, GDP, labor statistics). Silver being an industrial commodity more so than gold fits my outlook a bit better.
- If inflation continues to cool, the dollar may weaken at some point due to softening monetary policy
Any updates will be shared to members in VIP. - Nick
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I was stopped out on a nasdaq position recently, but I'm at least glad I got out when I did.
The indices can't seem to catch a bid today! - Nick
GDP numbers today showed just how surprisingly strong the US economy is...
This is also following stronger than expected PMI numbers as well.
I'm still bullish USD, AND bullish NASDAQ...
If we get decent inflation numbers, it could bring back the outlook for a soft landing. - Nick
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Despite strength in USD, gold continues its resilient bull rally. Price now has support in the $1980s if we see a pullback. Since price is back above the $2000 level, gold has paired its August-September losses by rising over 10% in less than a month. The war in the Middle East has propelled the metal’s price substantially, and the trend may continue. -Frank
Читать полностью…AUDUSD is struggling to break above a strong resistance level on the 1D timeframe around the falling trend line. Due to dollar strength and rising yields, it will be a tough go for the pair which is a heavy risk-on pair. Today is likely going to be a back in forth before the FOMC statement tomorrow so an increase in volatility will cause a lot of long and short setups. A longer term bullish play could occur if there is a break above the trend line. But if it cannot break, we might have to look for a move lower towards the 0.62870s. - Frank
Читать полностью…USDCAD moving this morning! I just trailed my stop loss into profit. Congrats to fellow bulls.
Signal sent in VIP. - Nick
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USDCAD is now the strongest bullish reading on the EdgeFinder. Similarly to what was mentioned about the AU pair, UC is going to be reactionary towards the news this week. In preparation for these moves, it appears that smart money has once again bought the dollar. CAD saw a small growth in positioning but it does not look like much overall.
COT is net long USD and net short CAD, retail is less than 25% long and majority short. The USD has CAD beat in just about every category except the labor market which is reading 0. Seeing any higher number on the NFP and interest rate side will be more of a bullish push for the pair. However, it is most likely that the Fed will remain unchanged this meeting.
As we approach the latest interest rate decisions in the US and UK, GBPUSD sits at a strong bearish bias on the EdgeFinder. The score has been in bearish territory for some time now as price action has not been strong. The fundamentals continue to point the pair towards more downside.
Wednesday and Thursday will be exceptionally volatile for this pair as we have FOMC on Wednesday and BoE the next. Both countries are expected to halt the rate hikes this time around, but what does this mean for their respective economies?
Higher rates for longer is not the ideal scenario for a country's economy, but it's the best choice for now. Lower rates will strengthen inflation and higher rates will likely cause a harsh recession. And the higher interest stays, the more prone an economy is to such a thing. The UK is expecting to hold higher rates for longer than the US until stubborn inflation comes down to its 2% target.
- Frank
No trade just yet... but I am watching EUR/USD out of the gate this week. A failure to hold support could be a trigger for a sell entry for me. If I take the trade, it will be notified to VIP members.
- Nick
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Gold sitting at support around $1980.
If momentum continues, it could be headed to the previous high.
- Nick
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EUR/CAD
EURCAD flips from a negative score to a strong bullish reading on the EdgeFinder today after we get a stronger trend reading to the upside. Price broke heavy resistance and has used it as support now. BOC will announce their new interest rate update this morning which is expected to remain unchanged at 5%. Seeing rates stay where they’re at could fuel more upside for the pair as it could complete the move to the falling trend line on the 1D timeframe. - Frank