A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 ноября 2024 16:48

RUSSELL
Small caps took off last night on a Trump victory and optimism from small business tax cuts. The Fed meets tomorrow to discuss interest rates and make another decision on monetary policy. There is nearly 100% consensus the Fed will cut by either 25 or 50 bps tomorrow which is another catalyst for the index. Price has tested resistance on the 1D timeframe and may look to retrace in the short term.
- Frank

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 ноября 2024 14:36

With Donald Trump winning the 2024 election - there are a few quick notes I wanted to share that the market will likely now focus on.

- Trump re-flation concerns: with the proposed tariffs and large expectation for government spending, it is possible that inflation does not roll over easily. This is likely why the bond market is currently seeing a sky rocket in the 10yr treasury yield

- Stock market rally: with Trump's pro business agenda, which includes looser regulations and low taxes, stock are ballooning higher today.

- Crypto boom: Going again off of the lesser regulations side, crypto is higher today as the Trump/Vance administration seems favorable towards BTC.

- Foreign affairs uncertainty: Whether you like or dislike him, Trump brings volatility and uncertainty to the global situation - which is a sensitive one as is.

- Metals selloff: I mentioned this in my livestream yesterday. Following the election of both Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, gold fell in price. This is likely due to the de-risking that takes place following an election getting called. The question of whether a peaceful pass of power will take place is no longer so scary, so investors move away from gold in the short term.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 21:27

We're counting down the hours until the election - which I will be trading within the VIP discord.

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We've had several new people join today, and I look forward to meeting you guys.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 19:18

Can you guess what it is?

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 15:22

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 22:10

Interesting thing to keep an eye on for tomorrow (election day!)

The stock market likes divided power, and is bipartisan!

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 19:45

This week is going to be one of the craziest weeks of the year. With elections, to earnings, to Federal funds rates, we are in for a heavy move. Our business forecast tool is displaying lower rates in Q4 of this year, as well as a continued drop from then on to Q3 of next year.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 18:31

Now that indices have been removed from the bullish category, RUSSELL small caps remains the highest score out of them all. This was due to a bullish change by 3 points on the score from trend readings turning positive.

The put/call ratio is higher going into the election as there is more open interest on the put side than the call side through Wednesday.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 17:31

Gold Daily Chart

Don't rush it...

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 16:29

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- James

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 ноября 2024 15:33

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 ноября 2024 15:32

Note: for Nasdaq, institutional money added longs, and added less shorts

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 19:47

USDJPY price plotted with retail and COT data is close to inverting. Smart money sentiment has declined while retail is picking up on their long positions. Individual traders are trying to catch a reversal on the dollar yen trade, but institutions are slowly getting out.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 19:06

ITS UP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeR7D1ScvsU

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 18:16

A safe bet on playing the Fed's monetary cycle is by trading the bond market. Since everyone expect yields to come down for the next several quarters, bond prices will rise as a result. TLT is an ETF that tracks the 20 year bond price. Price has now returned to the highs from the beginning of this year.

Data from the A1 EdgeFinder
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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 ноября 2024 15:48

🔥 Locking in some profit after this massive 7.5% move in BTC

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 21:39

According to betting odds - the election is still expected to be very close.

It is unlikely there will be a conclusive decision by tomorrow, but we will have to see.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 21:07

Trades cooking today! 🙏

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 19:18

Just went long on this chart in VIP...

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 ноября 2024 15:08

S&P500 Daily Chart:

On a technical note, the S&P500 remains in a solid uptrend, and has recently pulled back to a key support level.

On a macro note, I think the US election being put behind us will be a bullish this for the market - despite the winner. The lifted uncertainty of who the president is will likely give way to strong government spending regardless, which could continue to fuel stock market performance.

Additionally, the fed still seems likely to continue cutting rates, in an economy that has remained relatively robust.

Finally, we see a strong 4th quarter rally often within the stock market, finalizing with a possible "Santa Claus rally" end of year.

I am long. Not irresponsibly so, but long.

Not financial advice. Markets will likely be very volatile over the coming weeks.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 21:51

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 19:14

Smart money shows another interesting reading on positional activity. With SPX as the top bought asset, institutions may be looking for higher moves post election results. The yen is also seeing the most action out of any other asset on the list, as long positions have dumped over 12% on the currency. This is a risk-on type of sentiment that could be interpreted from selling yen.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 17:56

Gold opened higher this morning, but after a considerable drop from the the highs. The metal's score has declined going into the election with a decline in investors this week potentially due to fears of volatility or simply not wanting to trade until they see the outcome.

There is a chance that a Trump victory could bring risk sentiment back which could hurt gold's optimism going into 2025. If Harris wins, it might be more of the same for gold. This pullback from the ATH is just a profit point and a level to stall before the election results.

- Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 17:25

TSLA Daily Chart:

We're seeing some strong reaction to this gap open support level.

Nice pullback after TSLA's strong earnings pop.

I am currently in longs, with a covered call sold against my position at 290. I will share a picture in a moment.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 ноября 2024 15:04

USOIL 4H Chart:

Price was able to fill the weekend gap quickly. Oftentimes this can lead to continued strength in the direction of the gap close.

Can Oil break resistance here and continue?

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

02 ноября 2024 15:32

But check out SPX..... 👀

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

06 сентября 2024 20:07

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 19:46

Retail is very bullish dollar, mixed indices. Small caps, DAX and NIKKEI are among a several long positions.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 18:44

Gold Daily Chart:

Here is my gameplan for gold tomorrow, in regards to the jobs report!

If we see weak NFP data, I will be looking for a breakout through all time highs. Gold in this case would likely breakout on uncertainty that the fed can keep things under control, and the diminished probability of a "soft landing". More rate cuts coming at a faster pace would be very bullish for gold. On any break & retest of structure, I'd be willing to add to my existing long position in this scenario.

If we see a strong NFP report, gold would likely drop on job market stability concerns being offset. In this case, I will stay long on gold unless we break support as shown in the image attached.

All updates & positions will be shared in our VIP signals room.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 17:24

Since July 2022, the yield curve (2 year crossed with the 10 year bond yield) was inverted. Last night, the curve returned to normal which means that the 10 year bond now yields more interest than the 2 year. This is considered normal as longer term notes are supposed to offer more interest than short term rates.

However, every time we have seen this curve invert and return to normal, a recession imminently followed. This happened in 2007, 2000, 1980s and a few other times. When I say imminent, I mean in the sense of months after. It's not an instantaneous reaction, but it has historically alerted a market crash not long after the reversion. -Frank