A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

05 сентября 2024 17:21

Japanese stock index fell about 7% from last month's high as investors load up on the yen causing further dissension in the carry trade. The start of the month is not suggesting anything bullish, but investors still want to look for a reason for higher stock prices around the world.

Cooler jobs data is more of a confirmation for a rate cut from the Fed, and NIKKEI is mostly correlated to the US stock market. Investors also are uncertain as to whether a 25 or 50 point cut is going to cause any relief to the labor market. -Frank

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 сентября 2024 17:32

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 сентября 2024 16:09

Gold
Price continues to struggle at the highs even as yields and the dollar fall. I’m writing this just before JOLTS numbers which could be the reason for mixed price action on the day. A higher job openings could be bearish for gold today and may cause optimism in the dollar. The metal could come down to test a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe around $2,440s if we get bearish news.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 20:56

ISM Manufacturing data came out this morning and did not tell us much. Services is later this week, but the primary event investors are looking at is jobs data. NFP will likely cause lots of volatility while the unemployment rate is anticipated to be lower.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 20:17

COT activity last week was quite unique. A rare occurrence of buying happened apart from two assets, oil and copper. This will lead to most COT score readings on the EdgeFinder to be neutral for the week. This does not suggest much of a bias from COT, and may just be neutral positioning for the next week.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 19:16

USD is weaker against the other risk-off currencies such as the Swiss Franc and the Yen. The dollar may continue to weaken should we see the Fed come through with the expected rate cut this month. However, September tends to be a bullish month for the pair due to risk-off sentiment in the market.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 16:42

SPX500 Daily Chart

Watching the indices this week. If we break support, it's time for me to get out and wait for a better set up.

Let's see...

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 августа 2024 16:21

Gold 4H Chart:

Price is sitting just below all time highs, and continues the drift higher. We've seen price consistently bouncing off of the highs, but finding support just below.

It's possible that we could see a breakout, which could lead to fresh demand and new highs.

With rate cuts coming, gold has had a phenomenal year, and seems poised to continue the bull run.

I will be looking to trail my stop loss if we do see a new high form.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 20:44

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 19:11

Gold has mostly remained steady in COT positioning while retail went heavily long. This is usually not a great sign for continued bullishness on an asset that has already run up so far.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 16:31

USDJPY rises on the day after the positive GDP numbers in the US this morning. But the score still remains very bearish on the EdgeFinder's outlook. Other factors like smart money pouring into the yen, weak seasonality, poor labor conditions, and expected lower yields next month are keeping the score negative.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 15:29

The $3 trillion tech giant beat all estimates except guidance on next earnings. Because it wasn't a perfect report, the stock is struggling to push any higher than where it is now. In order to see higher highs in the stock and the index it resides, earnings needs to be constantly blowing it out of the water.

This isn't to say that the stock or the market will drop hard as a result, however. The put/call ratio is now about neutral suggesting that the balance between bulls and bears will likely keep price in more of a consolidation pattern.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 августа 2024 20:50

Just joking. I have stops trailed and curious to see how it goes. If markets tank, I'll adapt!

Expect high volatility for those watching indices & tech stocks.

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 августа 2024 17:11

Tech stocks are rattled this morning in the wake of a heavy earnings report from NVDIA today after the bell. It’s hard to tell what we are going to get this quarter from AI earnings, but analysts predict it will bring lots of volatility to the markets. The chip maker will have to beat revenue, earnings, and have a strong guidance in order to justify these prices. If not, we could see a large move lower which may carry the NAS100 with it. Watch for a break under support around the 50 DMA at $19,400s.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

27 августа 2024 18:52

Gold is down at the start of the New York session, but has shown a better resolve than the US indices. The dollar is likely going to be weaker now that investors expect a rate cut soon, so gold is probably getting more attention on the demand side than other assets. Whether it’s a stagflation issue or a deflationary issue, gold looks healthier and safer than buying stocks near the highs or hoping for a dollar reversal.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 сентября 2024 20:11

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 сентября 2024 16:10

USD/JPY
UJ drops further this morning on dollar weakness before labor statistics coming out today. The pair does not look very optimistic in the longer term after entering a steep downtrend on the 1D timeframe. This level is an important zone to watch whether it breaks lower to the August lows or breaches above the 149s. Good labor numbers could be bullish for this pair.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

04 сентября 2024 16:06

NASDAQ
Tech stock tumble after NVDA was subpoenaed by the DOJ on an anti trust breach. The market cap giant lost $279 billion on Tuesday making it the biggest drop in value ever recorded on a single stock. NAS100 hits a falling trend line on the 1D timeframe that may end up catching a bounce if we close above it today. Another level of support the index could test is around the 200 DMA near the August lows.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 20:22

S&P500 Daily Chart

Profits taken!

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 19:46

Retail is now short DOW despite it being a bullish reading on the EdgeFinder. RUSSELL and NASDAQ are favored to the long side by retail. Gold and the S&P are mixed.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

03 сентября 2024 18:09

Although recession fears are growing and investors are cautious of the rate decision, blue chips remain the most favorable of the indices. We had manufacturing PMI data come in just under the expectations but higher than last month's report.

What we have seen the past few weeks are a stagnant market, meaning the index has been trading within a range without really moving anywhere. However, DOW is different from the others as it reached an all time high last week. This may suggest that our best bet could be the companies with the most cash and will offer healthy dividends as interest rates fall.
-Frank

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

30 августа 2024 17:06

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 20:46

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 19:51

UJ's positioning looks pretty clear on direction. COT has become dramatically less bullish on the pair while retail is becoming increasingly long the pair. This sort of behavior may foreshadow a longer term down trend.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 17:56

Retail turned bearish on the S&P, but remain mixed on NASDAQ and long RUSSELL small caps. Gold is now one of the top buys from retail too, suggesting that the metal may have topped out.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

29 августа 2024 16:03

A key inflation report for the Fed is coming out tomorrow which is expected to come out unchanged. Core PCE will show us the price of goods and services purchased by consumers and tell whether or not prices are getting more or less expensive.

Stagnant or lower PCE will indicate that inflation is not too much of a concern. A higher PCE could likely cause some distress as the labor market unemployment rate still remains elevated above 4%. Gold would likely react positively to a higher PCE number.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 августа 2024 21:44

NASDAQ falls under the 50 DMA about 30 minutes before close. VIX spiked about 15% today, but it's not necessarily a warning for a sell off. Implied volatility is going up as a result of the upcoming NVDA earnings which is highly anticipated. We are pretty sensitive to news at these high prices, and investors need to see a justification to be at this level.

The expected move for this stock is 9.5% either way. NVDA will likely have to beat earnings, revenue, and have higher guidance. If sales have slowed or there is a miss in earnings, or guidance expects slower growth in Q4 and/or 2025, it might hurt the stock at least in the short term. And if everything works out for the chip giant, NASDAQ may be comfortable staying elevated
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

28 августа 2024 17:57

I'm waiting on the sidelines for EU and GU, but would like to buy a pullback if we see some meaningful selling in the next few days/weeks.
-Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

27 августа 2024 20:17

USDJPY turns lower on the day too, breaking under the long term support trend line. Overall, I think it’s important to monitor this pair as it depicts economic health in the US and the unwinding of the carry trade. It somewhat looks like today may be the deciding factor on index trend. We just need to watch UJ’s potential break lower.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

27 августа 2024 18:10

Looking at tech stocks as we approach NVDA earnings tomorrow. The index is now under the 50 DMA but has not necessarily confirmed a break below this strong level of support. The market hasn’t really moved for the past week as we bump around within this consolidation zone. Powell has pointed to a rate cut in September, but the market has not followed through with a bullish move to the highs yet. With a light news week, it seems like the indices are going to shift their focus towards earnings. -Frank