A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 21:07

With GDP coming up, analysts are not expecting much in terms of growth. Last month was a strong reading which is expected to happen again at 2.8%.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 18:41

Retail is buying all the global indices except UK100, so the contrarian score is bearish for most indices. Gold is mixed while the dollar is getting heavily bought.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 17:07

Precious metals are in high demand as gold touches near the all time highs again. With the Jackson Hole Symposium behind us, investors are now expecting a rate cut next month. This cut is in response to a declining jobs market which is not a good sign for the US economy.

As much as we may try to overlook the fact that inflation is stubborn and jobs are falling behind, this rate cut is not good news. In this scenario, the Fed is cutting because they think they have to, not because they have the luxury to do so. That's the thesis behind why gold will see further demand most likely. The metal is a great hedge against the weaker dollar and stock market.
- Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 16:01

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 августа 2024 20:04

Jobless Claims Come in

Numbers came in as expected for this week's jobless claims at 232K. Markets are mostly mixed on the day as a result, but the initial reaction was negative. Because claims have been so influential on price action, the meet in expectations is probably not great for bullishness.

On top of that, NFP revisions suggested that the job market is not as healthy as we thought. The tech index is stuck between support and resistance again, but the support seems stronger due to the 50 DMA, previous double bottom and previous top.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 августа 2024 19:06

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

21 августа 2024 16:18

Tech stocks took a break yesterday and are holding price above heavy support. FOMC Meeting Minutes is today which will kick off this week’s volatility. Traders are anticipating talks of rate cuts in September, but Meeting Minutes are usually reiterations of the most recent FOMC. So today, Powell will likely just talk about the same thing, “data dependent” has been a popular term from the Fed. We will likely not know what the Fed’s decision is next month regarding monetary policy. The index will likely remain mixed for the day as we get economic data tomorrow and the start of Jackson Hole.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 августа 2024 19:02

USD/JPY is the key pair to watch for insights into stock market sentiment. Investors have labeled the unwinding of the carry trade as an overreaction, expecting the dollar to regain strength. However, the chart suggests a different narrative. Time will tell if the carry trade continues to push investors out of the dollar and into the yen. The pair has hit a strong support trend line on the daily timeframe, and if it breaks this level, we could see a shift back to risk-off sentiment. This could lead to another sell-off in stocks and the dollar, while gold may gain upside demand.
- Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 августа 2024 18:21

Tech stocks are turning lower in premarket trading after a substantial run to the upside, breaking above significant resistance on the daily timeframe. If the index pulls back further, it may seek support around the 50-day moving average. There’s likely nothing new to expect from tomorrow's FOMC meeting minutes, as Powell is expected to reiterate recent statements. With no major USD news today, we’ll likely see lighter volatility. However, volatility is expected to pick up later this week with PMI and jobless claims data on the horizon.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

19 июля 2024 01:53

Remember: in a healthy bull market, there are often several 5-10% pullbacks. Here are the 3, 5, and 10% points.

I will be looking for chances to buy the dip, but picking my exposure carefully! - Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 июля 2024 20:36

Now let's take a look at this month's price performance.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 июля 2024 19:31

RUSSELL stocks struggle today with the rest of the market, but their losses are far less severe. The highly sensitive interest rate index has currently topped at $226 share price on IWM. If small caps continue to push further to the upside however, we could see IWM touch somewhere in the low $240s.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 июля 2024 18:41

DOW remains strong despite big tech stocks tumbling on lesser demand. Yields continue to fall which is bringing more attraction to the dividend stocks which offers some yield on owning these stocks. The sign of a Fed cut in September is not a bullish sign for everything apparently.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

17 июля 2024 18:53

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

17 июля 2024 17:58

S&P 500
Although not a big drop today, it seems like the rotation could be starting to take a toll on the big name indices. Price struggles to break above a rising trend line on the 1D timeframe and is reading overextended on our custom Bollinger band indicator. The SPX500 may need to drop back a little bit before investors want to get back in. Support lies at $5,500.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 20:05

COT reports show strange activity with the indices. NIKKEI and DOW are the top most bought. Meanwhile SPX and RUSSELL are at the bottom of the list. The dollar is also getting sold while gold and NAS are more neutral.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 18:17

Japan's stock market has recovered over half of what it lost in early August. COT shows a lot of buying in the stock market which has outpaced the yen this week. NIKKEI is usually correlated with the US stock market, so tech earnings does have an impact on Japan's stocks as well.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

26 августа 2024 17:01

The NASDAQ is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder and is still a bullish reading. There is not much news around the USD this week, so most of the sentiment is going to revolve around big tech earnings. The year's money-maker has been NVDA, so there is much anticipation around the stock's earnings.

This is because investors want to be able to justify the company's valuation at current price. Unless NVIDIA cannot blow the latest report out of the water, it may cause the stock to take a sharp turn lower. Likewise, a strong beat in earnings, revenue and guidance could keep the tech market up.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

23 августа 2024 19:38

DXY Daily Chart:

The slide in the US dollar continues - as Powell signals the fed's attention has squarely shifted away from inflation and towards employment.

This shift in focus greatly increases the chances of the fed cutting interest rates in the coming months/years, to help bolster the jobs market from its recent slowing signals.

Congrats to fellow bears - this has been a heck of a move!

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 августа 2024 19:43

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

22 августа 2024 18:37

Mixed PMI?

The latest round of PMI data came in with a beat on Services and a miss on Manufacturing. Traders might count this as mixed sentiment from purchasing managers, but it may be arguably good for the economy. Because the US is primarily a service economy, it seems more important to see improvement in that area over the other.

Gold has reacted negatively to this news and is down a little over 1% today. The EdgeFinder still think the metal is bullish, giving it a slightly stronger reading today after retail sentiment became more short.

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 августа 2024 21:25

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

20 августа 2024 18:45

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

19 июля 2024 15:01

Gold Daily Chart:

I am officially out of this trade! What a ride. Until next time XAU :)

Watching for further setups on this one!

- Nick

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 июля 2024 20:37

They say history doesn't repeat itself, but it can rhyme. This time around, the SPY is still green, but the QQQ is turning red on an inverted hammer candle for the month (pretty bearish sign should the candle close in that fashion, but we still have a few weeks left in the month).

IWM, however, looks like it's doing the same thing as that September in 2008. Maybe the small cap index touches new highs, or maybe it pulls back like the big tech market. The reason I'm watching these market with caution is because this "catch-up" trade that everyone is so eager to be in, could be a trap.

I think it's reasonable to finally see the small caps finally moving with the rest of the market, but it could be the last part of this melt-up before some kind of correction. Time will tell as the month wraps up.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 июля 2024 20:35

Here are three charts, one of SPY, the other QQQ, and the last is IWM. Take a look at each of the candles highlighted in the green boxes. Notice on that month, we saw a harsh decline in all three indices, but IWM behaved differently.

We talk about the catch up trade for small caps and the great rotation out of mega caps into smaller companies. Although there is money flow allocation throughout these indices, how sustainable is it? If we look at 2008's rotation, small caps saw an incredible increase in demand before turning back the other way. IWM hit an all time high before ending the month at a major loss. It seemed that the big names fell initially, but small caps suggested there was a rotation going on. This only took investors by surprise when everything dropped, and the rotation was not within the market, rather, it was just completely out of the market.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

18 июля 2024 19:07

Tech stocks can't seem to catch a break on the latest interest rate news. Highly speculative positions are souring to the fact that dividend stocks are becoming more attractive. If you look at a market heat map, you can see that only the mega caps have been struggling the most this past week while the rest of the market is keeping other areas stable.

The question is whether this new trend is sustainable or not. Later on we will look at a similar pattern unfolding right now that is eerily similar to 2008. It looks like NAS100 could come down to test the rising trend line on the 1D timeframe before another directional decision.

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

17 июля 2024 19:45

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A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

17 июля 2024 18:42

Gold is also overextended, but for a much more bullish reason. The bullish concept behind gold and possibly bitcoin is that regardless, the Fed is going to cut this year or next. The anticipation of a weaker dollar is high upon knowing this. Over time, the precious metal may be able to find more demand. Especially if indices like SPX, NAS and US30 start catching more downside, gold looks increasingly bullish. Don’t expect a perfect run to the upside, however. Gold might be the new trade to look for pullbacks on.
-Frank

A1 TRADING | Forex & Futures

17 июля 2024 17:35

RUSSELL
The small caps are making their way back up as they are considered a catch up trade to the rest of the markets. As the tech and big name trade dwindle, the rest of the market (smaller companies) are finally starting to see more demand. This is likely due to the three interest rate cuts that are now forecasted for this year. If this trend continues, price may even end up retesting the highs around $244-45 on the 1M timeframe.
-Frank