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SILVER UPDATE 4H:
I am still long, and with today's clean break through the highs, I've trailed my stop further.
Why is silver exploding? The same reason I believe gold is bullish as well.
Economic reads like PMI, retail sales, GDP, and NFP are all pointing towards a slowdown in the US economy. China and Europe are also facing the same trend.
At the same time - inflation is still a sticky issue in the US, with both PPI & CPI hotter than expected this week.
This combination is a strong one for metals - as people fear an economic slowdown and stubborn inflation, they may look to alternatives like metals and possibly even crypto. - Nick
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Retail bullish sentiment is declining while smart money continues to buy the commodity. The price is more so reflecting COT activity which anticipates higher oil prices in the future.
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NAS100 is a neutral reading with the rest of the US indices right now. Yesterday's score was 0 and today is +3. This move is due to the retail sales news that came out this morning. The categories that moved the index score came from the Economy tab and our Labor market scoring tab which looks at weekly unemployment claims.
Stocks are overextended for sure, but there are a lot of factors that keep investors from becoming overexposed to the market. What we have mentioned before is the potential stagflation issue happening in the US. Higher CPI and lower GDP and slower labor numbers can lead to a weaker stock market and USD.
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USOil is now a +7 on the EdgeFinder after moving up 4 points today in the score system. The US reported higher PPI and retail sales this morning which added strength to the commodity. The combination of this and hotter inflation has been good for oil prices.
Oil is now making moves for the first time out of the rangebound area and is topping the high for the first time since March 6th. The categories that brought up oil's score were labor market, economy and trend reading.
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NAAIM exposure growing towards 100% could be a concerning sign for the market. As sentiment grows more euphoric, the scarier the market becomes. Right now, we are nearing a full greed state which is why each green day on the US indices seems more and more risky. -Frank
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BOUGHT SILVER (TRADE UPDATE FROM VIP)
Entry: 22.25 (20.35 on $SLV ETF)
Stop: 24.38 (22.28 $SLV ETF) - Trailed in profit
Target: N/A
ANALYSIS
Trailing my stop further into profit after breaking through key resistance, actually outpacing gold!I've mentioned in my videos recently that I believe silver needs to lead gold in order for the metals market as a whole to rally.Historically, this has been key to a sustained rally. Silver led the rally in 2009, 2020, etc.This is my best risk/reward trade this year. Even though it was a small position, it's still doing some work!
- Nick
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March's inflation report for the month of February came in higher by 0.10% suggesting that there is still stubborn CPI levels in the US. Higher inflation is usually good for a currency if the economy is showing growth. However, with GDP declining and a less robust labor market, the US economy may be experiencing what could be the start of a weaker dollar. Although rate hikes have brought down inflation by a considerable amount since March 2023, it is stalling around the 3% range. With this data at least, the Fed might not be so inclined to cut rates this year.
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Gold is now selling off for the first time in 9 days of upside. The higher inflation news in the US has caused gold to retrace back near the previous all time highs of $2,148. This may push the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, however, at the expense of dollar strength. This is because if GDP continues to slow and inflation rises, high interest rates are not strengthening USD at that point.
-Frank
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GBP/USD
GU sells off harder today after higher than expected inflation rates in the US. Core stayed where it was and CPI y/y and m/m came in hotter. This initial reaction could be due to the fact the Fed is in a tough position now. Cutting rates would only push inflation higher but may cause GDP to rise again. Keeping rates high for longer will take a toll on the GDP and may not even help decrease inflation.
-Frank
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Hey guys, it's Nick!
If you have some extra time this weekend and you're looking to study up on your fundamentals, I've been working on something.
Here is my (free) fundamental analysis playlist!
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCt19ufhUpiAo6tZCO75JzBZaTo3o7uHz
I hope it helps. Happy Saturday!
This week's trade signals:
Nick:
EURUSD Long ❌
Gold Long ✅
Silver Long ✅
FXI covered call ✅
XLY puts sold ✅
Frank:
Gold Long ✅
Oil Long ✅
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Unemployment Claims came in lower for this week which can also be interpreted as a healthy sign for the labor market in the US. Higher retail sales could be a good sign for the indices as well.
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Retail is still short indices and is now mixed USOil. JP225 is now shorted by the crowd and most USD pairs are mixed.
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Gold is down today and is probably taking a break from the recent consecutive days of running higher. Higher retail sales from last month was probably taken negatively for gold as it wants to see worse economic conditions.
However, PPI was also higher. The Producer Price Index is a measure of inflation which also went higher today. With mixed news, gold may consolidate between the all time highs and the previous high around $2,148 for at least this week.
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Gold continues to surprise investors as it sits near the recent record all time high. Hotter inflation yesterday may have caused weakness in the dollar due to the potential narrative switch of monetary policy. What used to be good news is now bad news for USD - higher inflation is now a bearish sign. If gold is to continue higher, it may take some time, and price may be stuck between the previous and current all time highs.
- Frank
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BOUGHT GOLD (TRADE UPDATE FROM VIP)
Entry: 2026.87 (187.79 on $GLD ETF)
Stop: 2150.00 (199.03 $GLD ETF) - Trailed in profit
Target: N/A
ANALYSIS
Trailing stops slightly tighter - below the swing low of yesterday.My added long position from yesterday is looking like it may have been a good call. Support seems to be holding for now.If we proceed to break through the highs, I will look to trail further!What a runner... This is my most profitable trade of the year so far, but silver has this one beat in terms of risk/reward
- Nick
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Читать полностью…Employment change dropped this morning in the UK and actually showed a negative change this month. This means that jobs were lost in today's report which is indicating weakness in the UK labor market and pound. The overall labor score for GBPUSD is a -2 as unemployment rate has also ticked up in the most recent report.
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NAS100 tech index is up after higher inflation in the US. This reaction is a little strange as the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer. Unfazed by the alarming rise in CPI, stocks may see more upside towards the $18,300s where price has topped before. NAS is still on a rising trend line as well that has yet to break.
-Frank
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