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If you'd like an example of a true gold bullish environment, consider 2020.
- Runaway inflation expectations were a very real fear
- Economies were expected to slowdown dramatically due to the pandemic
- The pandemic was terrifying for people globally
Gold was up 20%+ in 1 year. - Nick
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My trading strategy relies heavily on following the banks’ institutional trades which is why Nick & I created the Smart Money Tracker. This feature is one of my favorites because when I open it up the most bought & shorted assets are right there for me to see.
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- Frank
My trade didn't work out unfortunately, but I am searching for better entries!
A bit of a surprise move to the downside mid New York session.
The NASDAQ has now flipped from a strong bearish bias to a bullish score of +4. The score flip was helped by today's CPI numbers that came out. Although we saw a higher than expected rate, the actual came in lower than last month's report. CPI y/y and Core remained the same.
We are also seeing a strong labor market, which the Fed has talked about as their goal while maintaining a 2% target inflation. Seeing the first bullish reading in the past month is a promising gesture towards the economic health and rising risk appetite.
- Frank
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Chart of the day: SPX500
With CPI looming tomorrow, will we see cooling inflation numbers?
If so, it is likely we could see price action breakout of this resistance level and potentially mark a bottom for price.
Watching closely for possible bullish setups end of week. - Nick
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USDJPY is reading in the +10 to +11 range on the EdgeFinder. This high score for the dollar over the yen is a heavy indication that the pair will move further to the upside. However, economists’ expectations are pointing to a lower CPI and PPI tomorrow and Thursday. If this ends up being true, we could likely see the pair show some weakness in the overall trend to the upside. The fact that smart money is still aggressively buying the dollar might suggest that they don’t expect lower inflation. The past couple months also show a slight reversal to the upside on CPI m/m. Core is expected to remain unchanged.
Читать полностью…Retail positioning still shows a bearish majority on the dollar as AU, XAU, NZD, and GBP are all net long with the exception of USDCHF. The two strong biases to the bearish side are USDCAD and USDJPY.
Читать полностью…Gold is now a strong bearish reading on the EdgeFinder. At -7, the dollar is favored in almost every aspect of technicals and fundamentals. Seeing the metal turn from a milder score to a strong bear is very indicative of further lows in the future.
Price spiked today, however, because of reasons above. What we also have this week is an expected fall in inflation from the previous month. If predictions are fulfilled, it would likely be a bullish sign for gold as the Fed may consider loosening up on raising rates of interest.
Oil got a gargantuan spike amidst news in the Gaza Strip. The commodity became 4.45% more attractive to investors this morning while price comes up to test the $88s level. Due to this conflict being in the Middle East, investors may be fearing that supply may shorten as a result.
The war on the Eastern front in between Russia and Ukraine trudges on, and this has already had a significant impact on the price of oil. This may be another catalyst for higher prices goin forward as price moves in between the $80-90s zone.
BOUGHT SPX500 UPDATE (Entered 5 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 4244.32 (Floating +395.10 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 4263.09 (Trailed: +187.70 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A
- Frank
The most bullish gold environment:
- Increasingly inflationary environment
- Major economic slowdown (meaning central banks may need to cut interest rates to brace for recession)
- Major fear catalysts (war, global pandemic, etc)
I'd say currently we only have 1/3 for what would be truly a bullish environment for gold.
- We still have strong economies worldwide, despite recessionary predictions being the consensus in the last 2 years
- Inflation is stubborn, but trending lower
- War is a serious short term catalyst to the upside
So:
If the economy majorly slows somewhere in the coming months, but inflation stays stubborn...
Gold could be a runaway train.
However, that doesn't currently look to be the case... which is why gold has had a serious selloff in the past several months.
Hope this helps for anyone interested. - Nick
USOil is now a neutral reading due to a sudden rush of bullish retail investors, falling prices and lower GDP growth. To see this drop from such a strong bullish reading on the EdgeFinder suggests that the rally for oil is over.
Unchanged CPI y/y and Core is keeping the score at bay. The commodity does well in high inflationary environments, but that is also coupled with solid economic data. If output is falling, oil will likely not find the strength to continue higher.
- Frank
Gold fell off the hotter CPI number and after testing significant resistance on the 1D timeframe. The $1880s was a pivotal level for price to break above. If we see rejection to end the day, it may signify that price is not ready to move higher into the $1900s. Support lies around the $1865 range.
Beating expectations is not the only thing to consider when looking at inflation. If we are to zoom out to the past year, elevated rates of 8% are now slashed by more than half. The m/m rate also came in lower than last month, but because it was higher than expected, the metal sold off
Reasoning:
- Core CPI ticked lower today
- Economy still resilient
- Yields cooling off slightly
- Bullish on cash rich companies
- Strong labor market = consumer strength
- Strong uptrend on the 1H & 4H, stops below structure
I'm long, signal was sent in VIP 1.5 hours ago.
- Nick
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USDCHF is a strong bullish reading on the EdgeFinder at +7 prior to the CPI news tomorrow. Higher inflation could strengthen this pair if we see it tomorrow. Price is coming down to a supportive trend line on the 1D timeframe. The recent decline in the dollar could be a possible setup for the bulls in the market. However, it will depend on the inflation data coming out tomorrow in the US. If price bounces off this level, it could come up to test the highs again around the 0.9245s. And a break under the trend line could suggest more downside to the 0.89450s range.
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BOUGHT SPX500 UPDATE (Entered 7 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 4244.32 (Floating +1239.70 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 4348.29 (Trailed: +1039.70 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A
- Frank
A big welcome to all of our new followers here on telegram! We are Nick and Frank, analysts at A1 Trading and the creators of the EdgeFinder. For those who are new, here’s a quick summary of our trading styles:
NICK SYIEK
Type: Swing Trader
Assets: Currencies, SPX500, XAUUSD
Style: Fundamental & Technical Trend Trader
FRANK CABIBI
Type: Swing Trader
Assets: Stocks/Indices, Crypto, Currencies
Style: Technical Trader (trends, breakouts and momentum)
📈If you want to see all of our trades, join us in the VIP discord! Use code TGVIP for 10% off any membership: https://a1trading.com/vip/
Happy trading!
BOUGHT SPX500 UPDATE (Entered 6 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 4244.32 (Floating +1185.10 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 4324.67 (Trailed: +803.50 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A
- Frank
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BOUGHT SPX500 UPDATE (Entered 5 days ago)
📈 Bought at: 4244.32 (Floating +975.10 pips 🔥)
🚫 Stop: 4297.17 (Trailed: +528.50 pips above entry)
🎯 Target: N/A
- Frank
USDCAD is at +6 on the EdgeFinder as the dollar keeps chugging higher. The dollar index is positive on the day, however, a couple factors point towards dollar weakness. Due to Israel's recent declaration of war on Hamas, oil and gold are pushing higher. Yields are falling as well on the 2 year bond rate.
This week's inflation expectations are also expecting to see a drop from the previous month. The expectations could be misleading however, due to the past couple months' CPI moving higher. Right now, the EdgeFinder still has the dollar ranked stronger than the CAD, so we will have to see how the conflict unfolds between Israel and Hamas.
- Frank
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