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Ukraine and the Danger Zone - will NATO and the US Intervene? - by Stephen Bryen, Oriental Review (https://orientalreview.su/2025/11/19/ukraine-and-the-danger-zone/)

Ukraine is now entering the Danger Zone. Ukraine’s army is running out of men and material, and worse than that, important parts of the army are trapped by Russian forces. This includes Pokrovsk, of course, Zaphorize and a number of other areas. Meanwhile, Russia continues to pound away at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure: at some point all normal services will collapse completely.

Western intelligence, such as it is (and unfortunately it often supplies assessments that are tailored to what their bosses want to hear) is coming to the realization that in Ukraine the military handwriting is on the wall. How long Ukraine’s army can remain a coherent organization is uncertain, but the mass desertions and high casualties are well known inside the country by Ukrainian citizens who are paying the price of the war, in one way or another. Meanwhile, Ukraine is trying its best using its overheated secret services, to try and create provocations that will expand the war to Europe and bail out Ukraine’s regime.

Two current examples illustrate the madness.

The first was a bombing of the Polish railroad connection on the Warsaw-Lublin line that transits massive amounts of war material to Ukraine. Polish leaders fingered the Russians for the evil deed, calling the deed an “unprecedented act of sabotage,” but now that has been reversed by none other than Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister. After making a dramatic visit to the site of the railroad incident, pointing fingers at Putin and his intelligence operatives, he now has partly reversed course. It was Ukrainians that carried out the sabotage, the Tusk has announced, although he insists the Ukrainians collaborated with Russian intelligence. It remains to be seen if Tusk can prove there was collaboration.

Meanwhile the Russian FSB has broken up a plot by Ukraine to assassinate a very senior Russian official. Moskovskij Komsomolets, a Russian newspaper, says that the target was Sergey Shoighu, who was Russian defense minister from 2012 to 2024 and now is secretary (chairman) of Russia’s Security Council.

Added to the mix was an alleged attack on Hungary’s largest oil refinery at Százhalombatta, which processes Russian oil delivered by the Druzhba pipeline. The pipeline itself was targeted by Ukraine earlier.

P1/2

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U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee: 'If we don’t stand with the Jewish people, then one day, they’re going to be coming after us too.'

Now it all makes total sense. 🙄

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A great summary for the late few days.

Things are suddenly (after months of stalling) developing very fast in Ukraine.

Ukrainian parliament fired Galuschenko and Grinchuk. Both have disappeared, possibly fled Ukraine, people started joking they have been killed by SBU. Poroshenko's party has been blocking parliament for two days in a row.

MPs keep demanding resignation of Ermak. Maryana "Dobby is free" Bezuglaya: "The first is to dismiss the head of the President's Administration. It is also very important that Ermak is not replaced by one of his protégés." Autistic chihuahua bites her owner, how the mighty have fallen.

Zelensky chills with Erdogan preparing for a difficult Thursday: US Secretary of the Army Daniel P. Driscoll visits Kiev "for peace talks", though some say for audit.

Western propagandists call this new attempt "hasty" and "opportunistic" as Ukraine is "critically weakened by its corruptioneers". "Ukraine did not take part in shaping plan, was not briefed and not asked to provide input". Maybe this is the last chance for Zelensky as corruption in Energoatom is only an appetizer before the main dish.

Reuters: "Kellogg to leave post in January". Not enough, he received money from Zelensky and should be investigated.

Meanwhile Ukrainian front keeps collapsing. New developments near Guliaypole. Russian army has been spotted West 48.30543, 37.11814 and North 48.30439, 37.16308 of Pokrovsk, now extremely close to 100%. First Russian assault units entered Liman 48.97247, 37.83290.

Julian Roepcke: "Russian forces broke through the strongest & longest-holding Ukrainian frontline in Donetsk oblast, entering Seversk town from the south, already capturing 20% of it. For those 9 km, they needed 40 months". Yeah, it's because Seversk for years has been the lowest priority, you self-proclaimed king of lemurs.

Hat tip - Denatofication

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Belarus has established large-scale production of shell casings using equipment from China, claims DW.

According to the publication, China sold equipment to the authorities of the Republic of Belarus to set up the production of casings for 152-mm artillery shells, as well as 122-mm rockets for the Grad MLRS, with a total capacity of about half a million units per year.

"China helped Belarus establish the production of 240,000 152-millimeter artillery shells and 240,000 122-millimeter rockets for the Grad system. These are annual figures. Thus, at one Belarusian enterprise, at least half a million shells are produced," the article states.


At the same time, it is claimed that the blanks for the ammunition are then sent to Russia, where they are filled with explosives. In addition, engineers from China allegedly directly participated in the deployment of the production.

Noice

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‼️🇷🇺🤖 It is unacceptable to become critically dependent on foreign AI technologies; this is a matter of sovereignty, — Putin

▪️Russia needs a headquarters to lead the artificial intelligence industry.

▪️Generative AI technologies are becoming key, with leading countries competing to possess them.

▪️The use of AI products provides advantages in labor efficiency.

▪️The development of domestic systems using AI must be fully controlled by Russian specialists.

▪️By 2030, AI's contribution to the country's total GDP should exceed 11 trillion rubles.

▪️The President reported that he discussed with Mishustin the implementation of AI throughout Russia.

▪️AI assistants need to be used in most management and production processes.

▪️Barriers hindering the creation and implementation of sovereign domestic technologies should be removed faster.

▪️A market for the application of AI achievements needs to be formed.

▪️Putin proposed implementing a program for the development of data centers in Russia.

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European defense companies are suffering from Trump's decisions to end the war in Ukraine.

According to Reuters, after the news that the US and Russia are preparing a joint peace plan, their stocks fell by more than 3%.

Schultz, close the gate! The war is back on!

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‼️🇺🇦🇮🇴International mafia profited from the deaths of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers: a British citizen from the "Panama Papers" was involved in the scheme with the purchase of substandard body armor, which Mindich lobbied for before Umerov

▪️This was reported by the head of the Anti-Corruption Council under the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Yu. Gudymenko.

▪️The owner of the companies "Fortetsya Zakhystu" and "Milikon," which won the tenders and were supposed to supply body armor, is British citizen Haim Brenig. He is a representative of the offshore structure Airpay Holdings Limited, registered in Malta.

▪️The first tender won by "Fortetsya Zakhystu" was canceled by the State Rear Operator due to the company's lack of a sales license. The second tender was won a few months later by "Milikon," where 49% belongs to the same "Fortetsya Zakhystu," and 51% to its director, Dmytro Stetsenko.

▪️Later, this contract was also terminated because the Ministry of Defense rejected the body armor after a scandal arose over its poor quality.

▪️According to the investigation, Mindich persuaded Umerov (then Minister of Defense) to approve the body armor contract, and he agreed.

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🇺🇦🇺🇸🇷🇺Ukraine rejects the "plan" of the US and Russia.

Officials in Kiev stated that it fully meets the maximalist demands of the Kremlin and that without significant changes it will not be implemented in Ukraine, — FT

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In Kherson oblast, Ukrainian military recruiters ran over a man they were trying to catch and his child on a bike, presumably killing both.

The footage is horrific — viewer discretion is advised. But it's important to never forget what kind of system we're dealing with.

- Russians with Attitude

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🇺🇸🤷‍♂Former director of the laboratory research program at the University of Missouri, Steven Starr, on the fact that electromagnetic weapons being developed in the USA could leave people without electricity for several years.

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Russian fighter captures a Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier from the 116th Mechanized Brigade.

Kupyansk direction


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According to the Daily Telegraph, NATO is facing a TNT shortage due to the Gaza war.

This situation was caused by American arms supplies to Israel. The newspaper notes that the TNT shortage is also complicating the European Union's ability to supply munitions to Ukraine.

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Ivan Yakubets, former commander of the Ukrainian Airborne Forces, proposed mobilizing all owners of service dogs.

They should be formed into units of two to three people with a dog who will conduct surveillance at the front – a dog will be better at identifying the enemy than infantry, he believes.


If you see some old Ukrainian lady in camo with a poodle then I think his project was given the thumbs up.

- Ukraine Leaks

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🔥 Ambush on Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters in Seversk

👁A unit of Ukrainian soldiers fell into an ambush by Russian assault troops on the southern outskirts of Seversk. As a result, the entire group was destroyed.

GEOINT specialists confirm that the video was filmed in Seversk and provide the coordinates of the ambush site:
🗺48.849607,38.099444

🎯All logistics of the Ukrainian garrison in Seversk are under the surveillance of Russian drone operators, and Russian army assault troops are gradually entering this settlement in small groups. Apparently, the place that was long considered a fortress will soon fall under the pressure of the Russian Armed Forces.

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🇺🇦🤡Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko called not for a new Maidan but to create an opposition commission to investigate the activities of the authorities:

No one in the country trusts the state audit today. Everyone knows that one hand cannot steal while the other checks how the first one steals. Our team proposes to immediately create a temporary investigative commission in the Verkhovna Rada consisting only of opposition deputies and give the opposition the opportunity to check all the finances of all state monopolies.

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"Europeans opposed the US plan that would force Ukraine to make concessions": The EU called the "Trump plan" a capitulation of Ukraine and rejected it.

"European countries on Thursday opposed the US-backed peace plan for Ukraine, which, according to sources, would require Kyiv to give up part of its territory and partially disarm — conditions that Ukraine's allies have long viewed as a de facto capitulation.

Two informed sources told Reuters that Washington made it clear to Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine must agree to the US-developed settlement framework, which includes territorial concessions and restrictions on the armed forces. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue."

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🇩🇪"In Germany, a small post on X turned into a police raid at dawn": Freedom of speech, German style.

"In Germany, a man publicly known only as Damian N. left a short comment on X, calling government officials 'parasites.' The post was barely noticeable: at the time of the raid, it had about 100 views, now only a few hundred.

Despite the post's low visibility, the police came to Damian's home at six in the morning. He claims they did not show a warrant or leave a document about what was seized. The police forced him to unlock his phone, confiscated it, took photos, fingerprinted him, collected other biometric data, and also requested a blood sample for DNA.

One officer warned: 'Think about what you post in the future,' adding that he is now 'under surveillance.' The police actions were justified by Article 130 of the German Criminal Code, aimed at preventing incitement of hatred against protected groups. Government officials are not considered such groups, which makes the legal argument highly questionable."

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When the Epstein files are released, one fact will be clear: we already know who WONT be on the list.

Putin
Xi
Khamenei

Hat tip - Retarded Ramblings

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🇵🇱👊🇺🇦 The Prime Minister of Poland demanded that Zelensky immediately provide data on Ukrainians suspected of sabotaging the railway

▪️Tusk reported this during a business forum in Warsaw.

➖"I told Zelensky that Poland expects the immediate transfer of all data that will help us," Tusk said.

▪️Tusk also reported that he agreed with Zelensky on the terms of cooperation between Polish and Ukrainian special services to prevent sabotage.

Halt. Show me your papers!

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American political scientist Mark Sleboda on the corruption scandal in Ukraine.

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Zelensky continues to believe that something depends on him in the matter of peace negotiations. He even makes demands.

'We spoke specifically about the situation in the diplomatic sphere. Many processes have now been activated. And we strive for all this activity to be directed precisely towards peace.

Towards a worthy peace and guaranteed security. Russia must realize: there should be no reward for war. And Russia must not be left with the opportunity to unleash a new war — neither against Ukraine nor against any other country in this region.'

Zelensky once again being an obstacle to peace

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‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Moscow is open to negotiations, the pause in dialogue was caused by Kiev — Peskov

➖"Moscow is open to continuing, open to negotiations. The pause that occurred actually happened because of the Kiev regime's unwillingness to continue this dialogue," he noted.

The EU and Ukraine do not peace, they want a ceasefire and chance to rearm.

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‼️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 2.5 times and no foreign troops in Ukraine: new details of the US peace plan

▪️According to The Economist journalist Oliver Carroll, the plan includes the following points:

➖Reduction of the Ukrainian army by 2.5 times. "Not twice, as previously assumed," writes the journalist.

➖No foreign troops in Ukraine.

➖No foreign diplomatic planes in Ukraine.

➖Ban on long-range weapons that can reach Saint Petersburg and Moscow.

▪️Carroll adds that Ukraine is currently critically weakened by a corruption scandal within the country, which the US is exploiting to try to force Kiev to agree to this plan.

I demand reparations from Ukraine.

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University of Chicago Professor Mearsheimer on Russia's lack of intentions to conquer Ukraine.

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Press Office of the SVR of Russia - on the fact that the European elite ignores the reality in Ukraine:

According to information received by the SVR, experts from the foreign policy and military departments of leading European countries are literally "sounding the alarm," warning national governments about the impending collapse of the Western-created "Anti-Russia" project in Ukraine. Reports sent to high offices directly point to the inevitability of the military defeat of the Kiev regime. Great attention is paid to the all-consuming corruption in Ukraine, in which generous donations from foreign donors disappear without a trace.

Foreign policy departments of EU countries are concerned to note that Ukrainians are becoming increasingly demotivated and apathetic amid strong fatigue from the protracted and exhausting conflict. According to reports from European diplomats and intelligence officers, the majority of Ukrainian citizens "feel betrayed" after publications about the outrageous theft within the state leadership in the "Mindich and company" case. They have stopped believing that the country will be accepted into the EU in the foreseeable future.

Moreover, among Ukrainians, the opinion has widely spread that they should not count on significant help from Europe. Ordinary residents realize that the state is mired in corruption, which is why the number of opponents in Europe to allocating substantial funds for Kiev's needs is growing. In addition to Hungary and Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Romania are beginning to lean towards this position. Thus, Ukraine's political weight in Europe is decreasing. Ukrainians are increasingly less likely to perceive European partners as a source of salvation and support.

However, the leaders of the European Union and leading European countries completely ignore the real situation in Ukraine. They cannot come to terms with the fact that hundreds of billions of euros invested in the "Ukrainian project" have simply been lost, and their political careers are collapsing. It is easier for them to continue mistaking wishful thinking for reality. However, even the most sophisticated self-delusion cannot prevent the inevitable confrontation with reality. The later Europe realizes this, the more painful it will be. 

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Western hypocrisy laid out bare for the entire world to see: a fascist war criminal whose army routinely shells civilians and a fake democratic leader standing in front of an artwork made to denounce the brutality of fascism.

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‼️🇺🇦💥 Epic footage of seven missile strikes on enemy targets in Ternopol

- Footage of the morning strike on targets in Ternopol.

- Ukrainian air defense even tried to shoot down the incoming missiles.

- One of the presumed targets is the "Orion" radio factory.

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"Top Army officials visit Kyiv on peace and tech sharing mission": The US Army Secretary has arrived in Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia.

"Senior Pentagon officials - US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Chief of Staff General Randy George - made a sudden visit to Kiev, becoming the highest-ranking American military officials from the Trump administration to visit Ukraine since February. Their mission is aimed at discussing ways to resume the stalled peace process with Russia amid intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and growing Western difficulties in maintaining arms supplies.

The American delegation also intends to advance negotiations on the exchange of drone and autonomous munitions technologies. At the same time, Driscoll and George emphasize that it is Ukrainian innovations on the battlefield that should serve as a model for modernizing the American defense industry."

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oh if only someone would have predicted that
oh if someone would have warned us

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Reuters writes that in Spain Zelensky was fed promises...

‘Spain promised to provide Ukraine with a ‘substantial’ package of military aid but did not disclose what it would include. Previously, the country supplied Kiev with Leopard tanks, Patriot missiles, anti-tank systems, and artillery ammunition.’


Spain?

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