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Slavyangrad.org — Nuestra Ira No Tiene Limites — There is No Limit to Our Anger — (c) V. M. Molotov
More on the Security Dilemma
Uncertainty about intentions:
In an anarchic international system, states cannot be certain about each other's intentions, including whether they are genuinely defensive or have ulterior motives.
Perception of threat:
Any military buildup or alliance formation, even with defensive motivations, can be seen as a potential threat by other states, especially if they are distrustful or have conflicting interests.
The arms race:
As states respond to perceived threats by increasing their own military capabilities, it can lead to an arms race, where all parties are increasingly insecure and potentially more likely to engage in conflict.
Escalation:
The security dilemma can lead to a self-reinforcing cycle where actions intended to improve security actually worsen it, potentially leading to conflict or war.
As leading realist Stephen Walt wrote in 2022:
Consider this recent propaganda video tweeted out from NATO headquarters, responding to assorted Russian “myths” about the alliance. The video points out that NATO is a purely defensive alliance and says it harbors no aggressive designs against Russia. These assurances might be factually correct, but the security dilemma explains why Russia isn’t likely to take them at face value and might have valid reasons to regard NATO’s eastward expansion as threatening.
NATO officials might regard Russia’s fears as fanciful or as “myths,” but that hardly means that they are completely absurd or that Russians don’t genuinely believe them.
Adding new members to NATO may have made some of these states more secure (which is why they wanted to join), but it should be obvious why Russia might not see it this way and that it might do various objectionable things in response (like seizing Crimea or invading Ukraine). NATO officials might regard Russia’s fears as fanciful or as “myths,” but that hardly means that they are completely absurd or that Russians don’t genuinely believe them. Remarkably, plenty of smart, well-educated Westerners—including some prominent former diplomats—cannot seem to grasp that their benevolent intentions are not transparently obvious to others.
Each side sees what it is doing as purely defensive reaction to the other side’s behavior, and identifying “who started it” soon becomes effectively impossible.
The key insight is that aggressive behavior—such as the use of force—does not necessarily arise from evil or aggressive motivations (i.e., the pure desire for wealth, glory, or power for its own sake). Yet when leaders believe their own motives are purely defensive and that this fact should be obvious to others (as the NATO video described above suggests), they will tend to see an opponent’s hostile reaction as evidence of greed, innate belligerence, or an evil foreign leader’s malicious and unappeasable ambitions. Empathy goes out the window, and diplomacy soon becomes a competition in name-calling.
The U.S. estimates that around 30,000 Russians are signing up each month, up from about 25,000 last summer. Some Eastern European intelligence officials say the ranks are now swelling by some 40,000 soldiers a month.
The extra manpower has allowed the military to rotate new troops in and out of Ukraine, and to build new units trained and housed in Russia, according to some European intelligence assessments.
“What we’re seeing is the military becoming a new type of elite,” said Daivis Petraitis, a Russia expert at the Baltic Defense College in Estonia. “They won’t have trouble with recruitment.”
Russia is tailoring its rearmament plans to meet the needs of the new troops to be stationed along its NATO border. Those units will get much of the new equipment. Most of what is being sent to the front line in Ukraine is old and refurbished Soviet-era arms.
Military officials on NATO’s eastern flank expect a show intended to deter Europe from ratcheting up tensions with Russia. Regardless of the state of cease-fire talks, they said, the Kremlin wants to be taken seriously in Europe. “If you look at Russian military history from Peter the Great to today, I can understand why they think they deserve a seat at the table,” said Maj. Kukkola.
The great Oliver Stone, who has come to Moscow for Victory Day, tells us he has no tolerance for European attempts to write Russia out of WW2.
"It's a perversion of history. It's more the political elite that has done this. I don't think the people of Europe buy this at all."
@Slavyangrad
Finnish Leader Warns the Kremlin: ‘You Don’t Play With President Trump’
Former Bond villain claims he has one of the strongest militaries in Europe and attempts to bemoan Finnish neutrality as being under the Soviet thumb.
Even so, he is determined not to let Ukraine be forced into a similar role.
U.S. negotiators have presented their proposed outline of a peace deal, which includes U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, he said, and Ukraine and the Europeans responded with a counterproposal, which Moscow rejected.
“What I suggest now is that we need to repackage these two proposals into something which gives the opportunity to strike a deal right now,” Mr. Stubb said.
China unveils 'Blue Whale' — world’s FIRST high-speed submersible unmanned vessel
— operates above and below water
— uses drilling rockets and sensors to collect data
— hits 30-40 knots on the surface
— can hover underwater for a month
Expected to enter civilian service by 2026
- RT
Civilian service…. yes…. 👀
@Slavyangrad
Russia 'in favour of reforming UN Security Council, supports India and Brazil to become permanent members' — FM Lavrov
He calls for no more 'selective approach' to UN Charter
@Slavyangrad
PS. If you go to Russia, you can get an MRI the very same day you land (land in the morning) for 2,500 rubles. That’s roughly $42.16. A good bargain.
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If any one (intentional, or “two”) of you was (were) under any misapprehension that this channel or its founder ever supported Trump, you should do an MRI of your grey matter to make sure that there is still some gray in there that has not turned to white.
Unbelievable.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating, so Kiev began to demand an immediate ceasefire, Russia does not see opportunities for honest monitoring of compliance with a long-term ceasefire - Lavrov
▪️S. Lavrov held a press conference following the plenary session of the BRICS Foreign Ministers Council.
➖" Kiev's ability to organize provocations is well known . There is no doubt that these provocations would have continued regardless of how this ceasefire would be organized ."
▪️The ceasefire proposed by Trump "did not affect the aggressive actions of the Kiev regime in any way":
➖"There were a couple of hundred violations recorded by our representatives alone. We sent these lists of violations to the UN, I sent them to Marco Rubio. Therefore, we know the price of these calls for a ceasefire."
▪️At a meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Brazil, he outlined in detail Moscow’s approaches to a settlement in Ukraine.
▪️The Russian Federation is in favour of starting direct negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, Lavrov said.
▪️Lavrov called not to read the statements of the Kiev regime "either at night or in the morning" because they know the price.
▪️Russia sees the US leadership’s understanding of the inadmissibility of a third world war, Lavrov said.
▪️Everyone will soon see that Russia and the United States have a mutual interest in constructive dialogue.
▪️Russia will develop relations with the United States without harming its partners.
@Slavyangrad
Column of military vehicles moving through Moscow
They’re rehearsing for next week’s Victory Day parade – a display of Russian patriotism and military might unlike any other.
- RT
@Slavyangrad
Once again, no ceasefire, and Russia is playing the West (US, EU, etc.) and their Kievan bongo drum like a fiddle (awkward phrasing, I know, with apologies).
Once again—Russia can offer them anything, almost anything whatsoever, and there will be no peace, because they don’t want it. So why not play them for the idiots they are?
The rest of the world is watching, and the future of humanity is in that rest of the world, not with the colonialist retards of the Westernoid kind.
The rest of the world is seeing this dance for what it is—a show of diplomatic mastery and military strength. Both in the service of the good and of common welfare, unlike the racist kleptomania of the West.
'Nuclear war cannot be won by anyone' ‐ Lavrov reminds
'We are facing MINDLESS, aggressive, hostile statements from EU & London', he says
@Slavyangrad
US to withdraw from Ukraine conflict settlement if no progress — State Department
▪️We are at a stage where both sides must present concrete proposals on how to end this conflict.
➖"If there is no progress, we will step back as mediators in this process," said State Department spokeswoman Bruce.
@Slavyangrad
Ukraine is one of the MOST CORRUPT countries in the world – Trump National Security Adviser Waltz
No oversight of where billions of US taxpayer dollars went, he adds
Think we can guess where...
- RT
@Slavyangrad
RWA with an apt summary of the WSJ article.
@Slavyangrad
Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe.
Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years.
Those soldiers, many now serving on the front lines in Ukraine, are intended to be the backbone of a Russian military preparing to face off with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, according to Western military and intelligence officials. The Kremlin is expanding military recruitment, bolstering weapons production and upgrading railroad lines in border areas.
Military experts inside Russia, though, characterize the activity along the Finnish border as part of the Kremlin’s preparation for potential conflict with NATO.
As Russia prepares to increase its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, Putin has ordered the military to expand its ranks to as many as 1.5 million troops, up from around one million before the Ukraine invasion.
Russia has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the U.S. spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military last year, and EU countries, on average, spent 2.1%.
Russia’s increased spending has pushed arms factories to capacity, prompting military industrial firms to expand production lines and open new facilities, according to European military officials.
In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.
Production of artillery cannons and munitions is expected to rise by around 20% this year, and drone quality and production have increased significantly.
To concentrate its forces to the West, last year the Kremlin changed the way it organizes its forces inside the country, creating new districts tied to the defense of its biggest cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The new infrastructure being built includes storage units and troops housing, said Emil Kastehelmi of the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which analyzes satellite images of Russian military sites. New rail is being laid along the borders with Finland and Norway, and south of St. Petersburg to the Estonian border. Existing lines that cross the region are being expanded.
One of the negative effects of my amnesty policy is now showing quite noticeably.
People are beginning to have proud meltdowns (like that idiot who crashed out over a random joke) or say moronically vile things in chat that would make Himmler proud.
And now you see the consequences. I completely booted the guy who had the public meltdown, and Gleb B had to crack down on the ridiculous genocide talk and has begun tightening the rules.
Anyone banned under this new tightening is not eligible for amnesty. So I strongly advise you to think before you give some 0 IQ take that you absolutely know will get you banned.
- Grigori
Anyone using the word “inyenzi” (the word was not used, “cockroach” was the marker) to describe another human being—any human being—will be banned on sight, with no right to resuscitation. This includes translation alternatives, such as “cockroach” or “snake.” We keep a clean house here, and we do not want any of your dirt.
/GB
Amazon Launches First Batch of Project Kuiper Communications Satellites into Orbit
Amazon has begun building its own analogue of the Starlink communications system. An Atlas V rocket launched from the US Space Force base at Cape Canaveral in Florida.
A batch of 27 Project Kuiper satellites has been launched into orbit. The constellation is expected to expand to 3,200 devices by mid-2029.
If Russia is to build a LEO constellation it would have to move quickly as there are limited orbits and the system is first come first serve.
@Slavyangrad
It’s ok if you do. in fact, I understand why. This is why I was entirely accurate in predicting his three consecutive victories. And no slight on you, whatsoever. I get it. I do not feel the same way, but I respect your choice.
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Spanish electricity grid operator REE, said on Tuesday its preliminary assessment had ruled out cyberattack as the cause of the nationwide power outage that hit most of Spain and Portugal on Monday.
Lights went off in most of the two countries at 12:33 p.m. (1033 GMT) on Monday in what was the worst blackout ever recorded in the Iberian Peninsula. Power supply only resumed in the evening.
REE's System Operations Chief Eduardo Prieto told a news briefing the electricity system was hit by a dramatic power generation loss in southwestern Spain, that caused instability in the system that led to its disconnection from the French grid.
He said it was quite possible that the affected generation was solar, but it was to early to say for sure.
Prieto said the system was now stable and working normally.
Sorry Russophobes, not Russian hax0rs.
@Slavyangrad
Self-propelled guns 2S43 and 2S44 before the rehearsal of the Victory Parade on May 9 in Moscow.
@Slavyangrad
I knew the idiot would win the 2016 elections. I said so when no one believed. I was right. I did my research.
I knew that he won the 2020 elections, but, hey, that’s what happens in a disintegrating empire—competing elites decide for the populace when things get rough.
I knew that the moron would win the 2024 elections because:
“…the lower classes not to want” to live in the old way; it is also necessary that “the upper classes should be unable” to live in the old way…”
And here we are, the great fireworks show of the 21st century is just starting.
The enemy struck the center of Gorlovka : major destruction, many wounded
▪️There are currently 16 known injured, including a one-year-old child, said Mayor Ivan Prikhodko.
▪️Houses and transport were damaged, including a scheduled bus.
@Slavyangrad
"I could have been the greatest Pope ever. No one would be a better Pope than me, believe me. If I were Pope, then—no schism, no East-West split, no scandals, no Crusades, no problems! Sleepy Francis! I'd have it all fixed in 24 hours. Maximum. A complete success. The Vatican would win again—the big leagues. Beautiful white smoke is the best smoke, people love it. I'd be the Pope of the Deal. They'd call me St. Donald—a great saint, truly incredible."
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Italian PM Meloni demands evidence from Russia
'Zelensky has proven that Ukraine wants peace. Now it's up to Russia to do the same. The meeting between Zelensky and Trump in Rome could be a turning point. It could be Pope Francis's last gift to all of us. I think that in that face-to-face meeting there was, I don't know how to say it... His spirit.'
'Russia's proposal is the beginning of direct negotiations without preconditions. A 30-day ceasefire in this situation is seen as a precondition that will be used to strengthen the military capabilities of the Kiev regime'