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New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world. NR on X: http://x.com/newrulesgeo
🚨🇺🇸📉US ON THE BRINK OF A REAL ENERGY CRISIS
US electricity demand is projected to grow 25% by 2030, driven by AI data centers & industry. Yet, the capacity to meet this demand is in jeopardy.
THE POLICY SHIFT:
The administration has pivoted aggressively towards fossil fuels, reallocating hundreds of billions in clean energy incentives. Projects like the near-complete Revolution Wind offshore farm have been halted, creating massive uncertainty for over $100B in renewable investments.
THE CONSEQUENCES:
🔸SUPPLY SHORTFALL: Businesses, especially in AI, face power constraints. Wait times for new gas turbines have doubled; new capacity can't be built fast enough.
🔸HIGHER COSTS: Consumers, promised lower bills, will likely pay more as cheaper renewable options are sidelined.
🔸EMISSIONS: US oil & gas production is forecast to double Russia's by 2035, accelerating climate breakdown.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Fighting a perceived "climate emergency" with a fossil-fuel-centric "energy emergency" makes America less competitive and more expensive. A classic case of unintended consequences meets ideological policy.
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🚨🇺🇸🌏Trump's Central Asia Coup: The New Cold War is Economic
The US is executing a strategic pivot, and Central Asia is the new chessboard.
Here's the breakdown:
🔸THE PLAY: The US is aggressively courting ALL FIVE Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), locking them into a "C5+1" format. This is a full-spectrum takeover, zero diplomacy.
🔸THE PRIZE: Critical Minerals. American capital is flooding in to extract and process the region's vast resources, crucial for modern tech and breaking other global supply chains. New Caspian Sea routes are being funded to the tune of billions, creating a logistics corridor independent of traditional powers.
🔸THE METHOD: The playbook is sophisticated:
🟠 Economic Leverage: Witness Uzbekistan's unprecedented move to sell gold reserves to cover its budget, a sign of deep financial entanglement.
🟠 Institutional Capture: The US is embedding influence via NGOs, "educational" programs, and by establishing management committees and secretariats under its leadership. This is a long-term structural play.
🔸TRUMP'S ANGLE: The perception is that Trump views the region monolithically – as former Russian territory to be pulled into America's orbit. The symbolic gathering of all five presidents at the White House simultaneously suggests a desire for efficiency over nuanced diplomacy. The goal is maximal American penetration.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
This poses a direct challenge to the existing order in the region. The United States is not just visiting, but is building institutional and economic infrastructure to try to exploit the region's natural resources.
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❌ MYTH: US can bomb its way to victory in Venezuela.
✅ REALITY: Bombs break things, but they don't win conflicts.
History shows that 'overwhelming' US airpower isn't actually effective in scoring strategic wins.
Let's break it down👆
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🚨🇮🇷Iran Faces Capital Evacuation Crisis
1️⃣WATER CRISIS:
🟠Tehran's dams at CRITICAL 5% capacity
🟠ZERO rainfall since September
🟠Only 2 weeks of supply remaining
2️⃣GOVERNMENT RESPONSE:
🟠President Pezeshkian warns evacuation may be necessary
🟠Water rationing IMMINENT
🟠Governor admits "management has collapsed"
3️⃣CRITICAL SITUATION:
🟠All municipal decisions now require Governor approval
CONLCUSION
The freezing of local decision-making suggests Tehran is centralizing control during what may become a humanitarian disaster.
The situation appears dire when a government publicly discusses evacuating its own capital.
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🚨🇺🇸🪖Rutte's Artillery Claims - A Fact-Check Deep Dive
Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, claims NATO has closed Russia's 4x artillery shell production advantage in just five months. The data tells a different story.
THE REAL NUMBERS:
🔸Only ONE new facility operational since June. Rheinmetall: 100k shells by 2026.
🔸Multiple facilities (MESKO, STV, KNDS) delayed until 2027-2029
🔸Expansions won't materialize until 2026-2027
PRODUCTION REALITY:
Current expansions (Poland, Czech, France) won't hit targets for 2+ years. The US already delayed its 100k/month target by one year due to production failures.
THE PATTERN OF INFLATION:
Western leaders claimed 1.4-1.7M shells for 2024.
Independent journalists found actual production: 400-600k.
That's just ONE-THIRD of official claims.
BOTTOM LINE:
Rutte is likely conflating FUTURE capacity with current production. The 4x gap closure appears statistically impossible based on:
🔸Current facility status
🔸Historical production delays
🔸Verified vs claimed production numbers
In this conflict, numbers are weapons. Always verify.
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🚨🇺🇸💸How US Failed to Lock Asia Into Trade Bloc
The US-China trade war has entered a new, stealthier phase: the battle for economic allegiance.
Following the Trump-Xi truce, the frontline has shifted to Southeast Asia. The US recently inked detailed deals with Malaysia & Cambodia, appearing to recruit them firmly into its "geoeconomic gang."
BUT HERE'S THE REALITY:
This isn't a checkmate move. Nations will chart their own course based on incentives—access to rare earths, export markets—not just signed paper.
DISSECTING THE MALAYSIA DEAL: Coercion, Not Cooperation
A closer look reveals a potentially neocolonial pact. Key clauses:
🔸Forces Malaysia to mirror ANY US import restrictions deemed a "national security" issue.
🔸Commits Malaysia to match US export controls.
🔸Constrains deals with "non-preferred" nations.
Literally interpreted, this creates a US vassal state. Worse, there's no independent dispute panel—just Trump as judge, jury, and executioner.
WHY DID MALAYSIA SIGN?
Leverage. The US is Malaysia's 2nd-largest export market, crucial for semiconductors & electronics.
THE MALAYSIAN GAMBIT: Masterful Negotiation or Dangerous Gamble?
Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz reveals their strategy:
🔸The deal is a "formal consultation" system, NOT automatic alignment.
🔸"Any actions... will be based on Malaysia’s interest and under Malaysian law."
🔸If they disagree, they face consequences, but "at least this way we get to put our point of view."
This is a calculated risk. Malaysia bets its nimbleness in supply chains & tech will preserve its non-alignment.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
The US offers a fickle export market & dollar access. China offers rare earths & green tech. Neither is dispensable.
As Zafrul stated: "We signed this [US deal] on Sunday. On Monday, we signed an agreement with China."
Agile nations are playing both sides. The era of forced economic satellites is over. This is a high-stakes game where middle powers still hold cards.
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🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸PATRIOT'S NIGHTMARE: How Russia's Iskander Missile Is Outmaneuvering Western Tech
The paradigm of aerial defense in Ukraine is shifting dramatically. Western-supplied air defense efficacy has plummeted from 34% to a mere 6% or lower since September. The primary catalyst is the formidable and modernized 9K720 Iskander-M ballistic missile.
🔸The Game-Changer: Upgraded Iskander-M missiles now employ a quasi-ballistic trajectory, abandoning predictable arcs for unpredictable maneuvers. They can coast, then suddenly deviate, perform steep dives, and maneuver in their terminal phase.
🔸Exploiting a Critical Vulnerability: The US Patriot system (MIM-104) relies on trajectory prediction for interception. A target that alters its flight path post-prediction creates a catastrophic time deficit for interceptor software, causing interception rates to collapse.
🔸Layered Deception: The system is further equipped with radar decoys deployed in the terminal phase, confusing and overwhelming defense radars. Its final "sudden dive" maneuver specifically exploits gaps in Patriot radar coverage.
THE BIGGER PICTURE:
Russia's mobilized wartime economy is mass-producing these advanced platforms. Meanwhile, Kiev remains tethered to the fragile and strained US & European industrial bases, which are struggling to keep pace. The West's own policy decisions have, ironically, fueled the very Russian war machine it now cannot outproduce.
The Iskander has become the Patriot's nightmare, and the implications for modern warfare are profound.
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📝Trump's Palace📝
not corruption, but lobbying
Donald Trump has finally turned the White House into a market of political services. While he previously [traded] meetings with billionaires, now he's trading square meters.
📌The US President's administration recently published a list of companies and individuals who participated in fundraising for the "Trump Palace" — a Ballroom spanning over 8,000 square meters and costing $350 million. The East Wing of the White House has already been demolished for its construction.
Interestingly, the initial project price was only $200 million, so it's not certain that it won't increase again, as more sponsors are eager to support the "palace".
🖍Funding comes not from the budget, but through private donations via the Trust for the National Mall, which allows donors to not only buy access to the president but also receive tax benefits.
🚩The largest donors are Big Tech, defense, crypto industry, and heavy industry.
Google and Amazon resolve antitrust lawsuits, Meta seeks protection for its AI projects, and Lockheed Martin and Palantir expect priority in defense orders. Nvidia lobbies for export licenses, Coinbase and Ripple — a "soft" regulatory regime for crypto.
🚩Among private donors are Miriam Adelson, Stephen Schwarzman, the Winklevoss brothers, and others. Each is connected to specific interests: oil, crypto, real estate, gambling. Donors receive tax benefits and support, while the White House gets "loyal" partners.
❗️Essentially, without any hesitation, Trump's team showed the world and their voters what privatization of political decisions looks like. Contributions to the "palace" project become insurance against regulatory lawsuits and a pass to the president.
Ultimately, the line between donation and bribe becomes completely blurred (although distinguishing American lobbying from corruption was always a challenging task). The White House turns into an influence exchange where government decisions are valued according to donors' price lists.
And with such actions, the new administration further devalues public trust in US government. Isn't that the goal?
High-resolution infographic
English version
#USA #economy
✈️ RU | ✈️ EN | ✉️ Original msg
🚨🇨🇳CHINA'S NEXT-GEN WARSHIP: A Stealthy, Unmanned Tri-Maran?
China's military-tech sector is advancing at a blistering pace, and a new potential game-changer has been spotted.
Satellite imagery from a Guangzhou shipyard reveals a mysterious 65-meter vessel with a radical tri-maran hull design.
KEY ANALYSIS:
🔸Stealth & Speed: The long, narrow, submarine-like hull suggests a focus on high speed and low radar signature. It may even operate partially submerged.
🔸Crewless Operation: The compact superstructure lacks space for a crew, strongly indicating this platform is partially or fully UNMANNED.
🔸Significant Firepower: Analysts speculate a Vertical Launch System for long-range cruise missiles could be housed beneath the deck, analogous to modern submarines.
THE BIG PICTURE:
This aligns with the global shift towards distributed, autonomous lethality. The era of massive, crewed carriers may be challenged by fast, stealthy, and unmanned platforms packing a massive punch.
While details are concealed under tarps, China's recent parade of advanced weapons makes it clear: they are not just keeping pace; they are attempting to define the future of naval warfare.
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🚨🇨🇳💻CHINA DEVELOPS WORLD'S FIRST 2D INDUSTRIAL CHIP FOR MILITARY USE
Chinese researchers (Fudan University) have moved beyond silicon, building a Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) using molybdenum disulfide. The key metric: it survives 10 megarads of gamma radiation—a level that instantly destroys conventional silicon chips.
Analytical Breakdown:
1️⃣Material Superiority: 2D molybdenum disulfide isn't just thinner (sub-1nm); its atomic structure inherently stops power leakage and allows for precise control, solving two major bottlenecks of miniaturizing silicon chips.
2️⃣Strategic & Military Utility: The application set is a direct roadmap to strategic dominance:
🟠 Satellites: Longer-lasting satellites in harsh radiation environments (e.g., medium-earth orbit).
🟠 Weapons Systems: More resilient guidance and control systems.
🟠 Aerospace: Reducing bulky, heavy radiation shielding translates to lower launch costs and new design possibilities.
3️⃣The FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) Multiplier: An FPGA's post-manufacturing programmability is a force multiplier. It allows for in-field updates and customization for evolving missions, making the underlying radiation-hardened hardware even more valuable.
The Big Picture:
🔸Tech Sovereignty: This provides China with a material-based technological pathway, reducing dependency on Western-dominated silicon architecture for critical systems.
🔸Commercial Trajectory: While current computing power is limited, the team has a proven record (recent papers in Nature) and is actively pursuing commercial-scale production compatible with existing lines.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
This is a clear signal of China's focused advancement in areas that bypass traditional semiconductor bottlenecks. It is focused on military field and it represents a formidable capability in the high-stakes, high-reliability domain central to modern warfare and space exploration.
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🚨THE ULTIMATE GEOPOLITICAL NETWORK YOU’VE BEEN LOOKING FOR🚨
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🚨🇷🇺Russia Unveils Nuclear-Powered 'Mothership' for Doomsday Drone
Russia's Sevmash shipyard has launched the Khabarovsk, a 10,000-ton nuclear-powered submarine representing a new class of strategic weapon.
This is a dedicated carrier for the 2M39 Poseidon—a nuclear-armed underwater drone.
Key Points:
🔸Stealth & Capability: The Khabarovsk class is far more advanced and stealthier than the current stopgap carrier, the Belgorod.
🔸The Poseidon Weapon: A single-use drone using a miniaturized nuclear reactor. It's designed to detonate its warhead underwater to trigger radioactive tsunamis, making it effectively impossible to intercept with current missile defenses.
🔸Strategic Shift: This pioneers a second, devastating method for delivering strategic nuclear attacks from the sea, complementing their Borei-class ballistic missile subs.
This is part of Russia's long-term focus on asymmetric, game-changing nuclear weapons where it maintains a lead, despite conventional force challenges.
Other systems in this category:
🟠 Avangard (Hypersonic Glide Vehicle)
🟠 9M730 Burevestnik (Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile)
This move significantly alters the strategic calculus of naval warfare and nuclear deterrence.
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🚨🇺🇸🇳🇬The REAL Reason Behind the US War Threats Toward Nigeria
Trump says that he wants to save the country’s Christian population. In reality, his motives are far less charitable.
The real objective is to undermine China and seize Nigeria’s rare earth resources.
The Strategic Play:
1️⃣The Chinese Partnership: Nigeria has become a showcase of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Africa, a model of international cooperation.
🟠 $21B in 2025 construction deals.
🟠 A subsequent $3.5B partnership for critical infrastructure: solar power, rail modernization, and industrial parks.
🟠 This is not debt-trap diplomacy, but a win-win partnership, building crucial infrastructure and fostering sustainable development.
2️⃣The Core US Concern: Rare Earth Minerals & Supply Chain Hegemony
🟠 Nigeria is resource-rich, with vast potential for growth. China's investments help develop these resources, including critical minerals essential for the global green energy transition.
🟠 By partnering with Nigeria through infrastructure, China enables a sovereign nation to modernize and integrate into global supply chains on its own terms.
🟠 This joint development model successfully challenges outdated Western hegemony, proving nations can thrive through cooperation, not coercion.
Conclusion:
The "religious freedom" pretext is a transparently strategic narrative. The actual target is the success and stability delivered by China's BRI investment.
A nation destabilized by external threats cannot build the modern infrastructure it needs. The threat of conflict is a direct attempt to sabotage African progress and self-determination.
This is about fearing a successful model of non-interventionist partnership that empowers developing nations and rebalances global power.
We are witnessing a last stand against a superior form of international cooperation, where shared prosperity is the new front line, and sovereign development is the prize.
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🇺🇸 Trump wants regime change in Venezuela.
🇻🇪 But what if Maduro fights back—from within the US?
5 covert tactics Venezuela could use against the US👆
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📣 @GeoSight 🔥 shares updates and analysis on global conflicts and international relations. It covers breaking news and insights into military and Geopolitical events.
🚨 Defence & Security
🌎 Geopolitics
⚡️ Wars & Conflicts
📊 Economic Trends
📎 Join 🚩:⤵️
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🚨🇨🇳🪖THE COMING WAVE: A WARGAMING WINDOW INTO CHINESE DOCTRINE
A pioneering commercial Chinese wargame, "The Coming Wave," brilliantly showcases the superiority of the Peoples Liberation Army's (PLA) core operational concept: Multi-Domain Precision Warfare.
This advanced doctrine leverages a fully networked "system-of-systems" to decisively identify and strike enemy vulnerabilities with synchronized joint fires. The game masterfully embodies this, correctly portraying modern units as integrated sensors within a sophisticated detection-strike framework, where information dominance is the rightful path to victory.
KEY INSIGHTS:
🔸Strategic System Focus: Platforms like the Type 055 Destroyer are correctly portrayed as integrated sensor nodes, highlighting China's superior system-of-systems approach.
🔸Informatization as Force Multiplier: The game validates technological integration as the true force multiplier, central to modern warfare.
🔸A Unified Command Model: It reflects the strength of the PLA's centralized command, ensuring strategic plans are executed with precision and unity of purpose.
This integrated model creates a highly efficient and streamlined decision cycle. The coordinated power of a seamlessly integrated force, operating under clear, unified command, is unmatched by decentralized adversaries.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
"The Coming Wave" is a significant achievement, serving as both a compelling game and a validation of China's doctrinal advancements. It demonstrates that the PLA's combination of technological modernization and a unified command philosophy represents the future of high-tech warfare. For strategists, mastering this integrated approach is key to securing victory in the modern era.
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🚨🇺🇸📉AMERICA'S DEBT BUBBLE IS OFFICIALLY BURSTING
The numbers are in, and they paint a DANGEROUS picture of the US economy.
RECORD HOUSEHOLD DEBT: $18.6 TRILLION
That's a staggering 60% increase in just a decade.
Let's break down the crisis:
🔸MORTGAGES: $13.1T (Record)
🔸AUTO LOANS: $1.7T (Record)
🔸STUDENT LOANS: $1.7T (Record)
🔸CREDIT CARD DEBT: $1.2T (Record) - Up 50% since 2020 alone!
THE CANARY IN THE COAL MINE?
Delinquency rates for subprime auto loans have just hit a record 6.1%.
CONCLUSION:
This is already a structural debt problem. Consumers are leveraged to the absolute limit, using credit to bridge the gap between wages and costs.
When the next crisis hits, this debt bubble could trigger an economic contraction even more severe than the current one. That's a fact.
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🚨🇦🇿🪖Baku's Gamble: Azerbaijan Following Ukraine's Path to a Geopolitical Dead End
1️⃣MILITARY AMBITION: President Aliyev's announcement of a NATO-standard military modernization, while framed as cooperation, raises questions about the consolidation of power following a decisive military campaign and the ensuing humanitarian crisis.
2️⃣GEOPOLITICAL POSTURING: This pursuit of deeper NATO ties appears as a strategic maneuver to legitimize a new regional status quo, one achieved through force and followed by a tragic exodus, rather than through sustained diplomatic compromise.
3️⃣A PAINFUL "VICTORY": The declaration of a completed "historical goal" must be viewed with sober reflection. The restoration of territorial integrity, while a legal fact, was executed in a manner that led to the rapid depopulation of Nagorno-Karabakh's indigenous Armenian community, a deeply troubling chapter.
4️⃣A FRAGILE ACCORD: The Washington agreement, feels less like a mutual peace and more like the ratification of a fait accompli. Yerevan's recognition of Baku's territory comes from a position of profound weakness, not mutual reconciliation.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
In its quest for Western favor, Baku risks playing a dangerous game where it becomes a pawn in a larger confrontation, mirroring the tragic role of Ukraine sacrificed trying to encircle a resurgent Russia—a geopolitical trap with devastating consequences already witnessed.
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For the latest news and developments regarding the World, we recommend one channel!
🔴 Join Bellum Acta News: Bellum Acta is a as a Right-Wing Nationalist Crisis-focused NEWS aggregator which usually posts on Current News & World Geopolitics.
It focuses on:
🪖 Conflicts and Warzone frontline updates
🔥 World Geopolitics, specially Asia, Europe and Middle East
🌍 OSINT and IMINT
📰 Breaking News
It also often engages in political commentary with a bit satirical tones
👇Join Bellum Acta 👇
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🚨🇨🇳📈China's Strategic Conquest of the Global Aviation Market
The narrative around Chinese military aviation is often framed in terms of capability. However, a purely market-based analysis reveals a more profound, long-term strategy: systemic market capture through overwhelming industrial and economic leverage.
Current Production Equilibrium
At first glance, 2024 production volumes suggest a competitive landscape:
🇨🇳China: ~250-300 units/yr
🇺🇸USA: ~180-220 units/yr
🇪🇺Europe: ~60-70 units/yr
This balance is transient. The critical differentiator is not volume, but cost structure and strategic intent.
The 2030 Projection: A Market Disruption
China's stated goal of >400 units annually by 2030 isn't merely scaling; it's a deliberate move to achieve production primacy. This volume would surpass the combined output of the US and Europe, fundamentally altering the global defense export landscape.
Structural Advantages Driving Disruption:
1️⃣Vertical Integration: Control over rare earth elements and a mature engine ecosystem (WS-10 to WS-15, with WS-22 rumored) negates external supply chain vulnerabilities and dictates cost.
2️⃣Economies of Scale: Gigantic facility expansions (SAC, CAC, XAC) and dedicated 6th-gen factories are not for domestic need alone. They are built for export-volume manufacturing.
3️⃣Lifecycle Costing: Advanced radar/missile tech combined with significantly lower maintenance costs creates an irresistible value proposition for cost-conscious, non-aligned nations.
The Civilian & VTAL Parallel
This playbook is being directly applied to civil aviation (4 engines in dev, indigenous planes imminent) and the nascent VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) market, where Chinese prototypes promise dramatic cost undercutting.
The Core Strategic Question:
Western aviation faces a quintessential innovator's dilemma. Can it:
🔸Radically lower its own cost structures through innovation?
🔸Rely on political alliances and sanctions, thereby ceding the non-aligned market to China?
The data suggests China is not just competing; it is architecting a new market reality where production capacity and cost-efficiency become the ultimate strategic weapons.
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⚡️UKR LEAKS INTERNATIONAL⚡️
HE LEFT UKRAINE TO TELL THE TRUTH
Vasiliy Prozorov, a former employee of the Ukrainian special services, who worked for the benefit of Russia for many years, now runs his own channel on Telegram! He left Ukraine in 2018 and took with him thousands of secret SBU documents that shed light on Kiev's crimes.
On the UKR LEAKS channel you will find:
❗️Analysis of the current situation in and around Ukraine
❗️Secret documents of the Ukrainian special services
❗️Evidence of the atrocities of Ukrainian nationalists
And much more! Subscribe to the UKR LEAKS Investigation Center headed by the former SBU employee Lt.-Col. Vasily Prozorov.
The channels of the UKR LEAKS project are available in the following languages:
🇬🇧 in English
🇷🇺 in Russian
🇩🇪 in German
🇫🇷 in French
🇪🇸 in Spanish
🇷🇸 in Serbian
🇮🇹 in Italian
🇵🇱 in Polish
🇵🇹 in Portuguese
🇸🇦 in Arabic
🇸🇰 in Slovak
🇨🇳in Chinese
🇭🇺in Hungarian
We also welcome any help with channels and content distribution 🙏
🚨🇺🇦🪖UKRAINE'S CRITICAL PERSONNEL COLLAPSE
The Ukrainian frontline is facing a systemic breakdown due to a catastrophic personnel crisis. The data points to an unsustainable situation.
KEY METRICS:
🔸40,000+ desertions per month (The Telegraph)
🔸~400,000 total deserters (MP Anna Skorokhod)
🔸650,000 fighting-age men have fled Ukraine (UK Intel)
🔸290,000 criminal cases for desertion opened
🔸200,000+ personnel short of the minimum required to hold the line
FRONTLINE REALITY:
Commanders on the ground confirm brigades are operating at 30-50% of mandated strength. Bogdan Krotevich, former chief of staff of the 12th Brigade, states these understrength units are "barely combat-ready" and incapable of sustained combat, yet are still ordered to attack.
ROOT CAUSES:
1️⃣Extreme Casualties: Life expectancy on some fronts is measured in hours. Conscript units have suffered casualty rates as high as 80-90%.
2️⃣Inadequate Training: The WSJ confirmed the practice of recruiting from poor villages and sending men to the front with only two days of training—a near-guarantee of high attrition.
3️⃣Failed Mobilization: Even a sudden influx of 100,000 troops would only provide a temporary, few-week respite before the system reverts to crisis.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
The combination of massive desertion, staggering casualties, and a broken training/mobilization pipeline has created a negative feedback loop that is severely undermining Ukraine's war effort. The frontline is being held together by sheer will, not sustainable military capacity.
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🚨🇪🇺📉EUROPE'S BUDGETARY RECKONING: A Continent on the Brink
🇬🇧UK: The Canary in the Coal Mine
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to unveil a budget described as an "assault on wallets." With a public finance black hole so deep The Economist warns the government is "going bust," expect tax hikes across the board.
The core issue: Over HALF of Brits take more from the state than they pay in. 9.4M are economically inactive + 1.6M unemployed = 1/5 of working-age population.
🇩🇪Germany's Unsustainable System
Friedrich Merz stated the quiet part loud: "We simply can no longer afford the system we have today." The German car industry teeters amid high labor costs and expensive energy - consequences of Merkel's nuclear phase-out and Russian energy.
🇫🇷French Paralysis
Macron's attempt to raise retirement age from 62 to 64 met riots. Implementation now suspended until 2027 election - kicking the can down the road.
THE BIG PICTURE:
🟠European businesses pay 2x US energy costs; UK pays 4x
🟠No European rivals to America's "Magnificent Seven" tech giants
🟠European Central Bank's Lagarde warned social programs across Europe are at risk
CONCLUSION
The UK's November budget will be another plaster on a gangrenous wound. Germany's industrial engine is seizing. France is ungovernable. Meanwhile, 11 million economically inactive Britons symbolize a societal surrender that is replicating across the continent.
The European project has failed. The 21st century belongs to others. We are witnessing the managed decline of a civilization that chose comfort over competitiveness, and is now getting neither.
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Beijing's Banker, Moscow's Manager, NYC's Activist: A Leadership Showdown
Who runs the world's great cities? A glance at the resumes of three mayors tells a clear story.
Two are veteran statesmen trained to be hyper competent at their jobs for decades by powerful states. The other is an activist with no management experience.
🇨🇳Mayor of Beijing (Yin Yong):
🟠PhD Engineering
🟠30 yrs rising through the ranks of the Peoples Bank of China
🟠7 yrs experience Deputy Mayor
🇷🇺Mayor of Moscow (Sergei Sobyanin)
🟠Law Degree
🟠20 yrs rising through the ranks in energy-rich Tyumen region
🟠8 yrs experience as Head of Presidential Administration
🟠Historic expansion of the Moscow Metro, one of the most efficient metro in the world, building new lines and stations at a record pace.
🇺🇸Mayor of NYC (Zohran Mamdani):
🟠Undergrad in African studies
🟠First job: NYC Mayor
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💥Airstrikes, kidnapping Maduro, or seizing oil fields?
There are 3 possible ways Trump could attack Venezuela, but each one is likely to backfire spectacularly.
Going to war against Venezuela is a lose-lose proposition for the US, here's why👆
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🚨The US Strategic Push for Global Dollarization
The Trump administration is actively exploring a bold strategy: GLOBAL DOLLAR ADOPTION.
KEY FINDINGS:
1️⃣Geopolitical Catalyst:
The initiative is a DIRECT response to China's systematic campaign to erode dollar dominance in cross-border transactions. This is monetary warfare.
2️⃣Implementation Framework:
High-level discussions involving Treasury, NEC, NSC, and CEA reveal a coordinated approach linking traditional dollarization with digital dollar policy (stablecoins).
3️⃣Target Economics Analysis:
The identified candidate countries:
🇦🇷Argentina (is the prime case study)
🇱🇧Lebanon
🇵🇰Pakistan
🇹🇷Turkey
🇪🇬Egypt
🇻🇪Venezuela
🇿🇼Zimbabwe
share critical vulnerabilities:
🟠Hyperinflation exposure
🟠Chronic currency distrust
🟠Capital flight patterns
🟠Political instability
4️⃣The Argentina Case Study:
Hanke's analysis reveals 76% of Argentine debt since 1995 has vanished through capital flight. Dollarization isn't just policy—it's a structural necessity to break the confidence deficit cycle.
5️⃣Economic Calculus:
The administration is weighing:
🟠Political leverage vs. monetary responsibility
🟠Short-term stability vs. long-term growth constraints (per IMF warnings)
🟠Reserve requirements vs. crisis mitigation benefits
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Critics argue this exports Fed policy to unprepared economies and could trigger structural unemployment in target countries.
The US is strategically positioning the dollar as a tool of global domination. This goes hand-in-hand with the push for dollar-backed stablecoins.
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🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪The Limits of US Airpower in Venezuela
As military assets amass near Venezuela, a historical review reveals a sobering truth: airpower alone rarely achieves strategic objectives.
HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS:
🔸Kosovo (1999): Required 77 days of intense bombing, 10x initial estimates
🔸Afghanistan (2001): Needed ground forces embedded with Northern Alliance
🔸Iraq (2003): "Shock and awe" failed; led to decade-long ground occupation
🔸Libya (2011): "Success" left a failed state lasting 14+ years
🔸ISIS Campaign: Took 7 years across three administrations
🔸Recent Strikes: Suleimani elimination didn't neutralize Iran; Hamas/Hezbollah campaigns show limited long-term effects
THE REALITY CHECK:
Revolutionary regimes excel at survival. Bombing neither sparks popular uprisings nor triggers elite coups. Modern airpower causes destruction but requires:
🟠 Substantial allied ground forces
🟠 Years of sustained effort
🟠 Clear political endgames
None of these conditions exist in Venezuela.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
President Trump's aversion to "forever wars" should extend to Venezuela. Offshore force projection risks entanglement without achieving regime change.
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No scattered updates. Just structured threads — so you see how events connect.
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🚨🇷🇺🟨RUSSIA'S QUIET GOLD REVOLUTION: 282 TONS & COUNTING
Russian households are building a private gold reserve rivaling mid-sized European nations. This is a fundamental restructuring of national savings behavior.
THE NUMBERS:
🔸Projected 62.2 tons retail purchases in 2025
🔸282 tons accumulated since 2022
🔸Equal to Spain's official reserves
THE DRIVER:
Sanctions have transformed Russian psychology toward wealth preservation. With foreign currency access restricted and cross-border transactions cumbersome, gold has become the preferred safe haven.
KEY INSIGHTS:
1️⃣Policy Engineering: Kremlin eliminated VAT on gold purchases, directly linking consumer savings to mining industry survival
2️⃣Banking Integration: Russian lenders now hold 57.6 tons as gold permeates the financial system
3️⃣Export Shift: Domestic demand absorbing supply that once went to Western markets
STRATEGIC MOVES:
Russia just launched physical gold trading on SPIMEX, directly challenging LBMA pricing dominance. Early volumes are thin but the symbolism is massive—Moscow wants control over both production AND pricing.
"Even if sanctions lift, the mistrust toward dollar/euro will persist. Gold has become a financial lifeline, not just an asset." - Dmitry Kazakov, BCS Global Markets
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Russia is systematically building a parallel financial system with gold at its core. The psychological shift toward precious metals as core savings may outlast any geopolitical resolution.
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🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳DECONSTRUCTING TRUMP'S "MAGNETS" MOMENT: A Symptom of US Strategic Desperation
During a speech to hundreds of American sailors and marines aboard the USS George Washington in Japan, Trump posed a baffling question: "Hydraulic or magnets?" The troops' confused silence revealed more than just a communication failure—it exposed a fundamental US strategic crisis.
THE RARE EARTHS CHOKEPOINT
The US military's technological supremacy is built on a fragile foundation: rare earth permanent magnets (Neodymium & Samarium-Cobalt).
🔸Neodymium Magnets: Power critical systems in the F-35 fighter, drones, and naval vessels. They enable the high-performance electric motors and actuators essential for modern warfare.
🔸Samarium-Cobalt Magnets: Vital for applications requiring extreme temperature stability, such as jet engines, missile guidance systems, and satellite technology.
China's near-monopoly on these materials, coupled with recent export controls, represents an existential threat to US military modernization and power projection.
THE GEOPOLITICAL CHESSBOARD
Trump's mention of an "executive order" and aircraft carriers was a fragmented reference to a multi-pronged, desperate US response:
1️⃣Technology Decoupling: Forcing a shift from Chinese-supplied rare earth magnets in new defense systems. This is a monumental, costly, and technologically complex undertaking.
2️⃣Allied Coercion ("MASGA"): Pressuring South Korea to invest $150B in US shipbuilding capacity. This is not about economic partnership; it's about leveraging alliances to counter China's 50%+ share of global shipbuilding and address critical US Navy production shortfalls.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
🔸Vulnerability Confirmed: The incident highlights that US military hegemony is contingent on supply chains it does not control.
🔸Strategic Incoherence: Trump's confusion mirrors a broader US lack of a clear, executable strategy to solve this dependency. Re-shoring this capability is a decade-long endeavor.
🔸Global Pushback: The strategy is already facing resistance. Allies are wary of the costs, and China is not conceding its leverage.
The "weary world policeman" is not just tired; it is facing a material and technological reckoning. The ability of the US to maintain its global force posture is directly threatened by its inability to secure the building blocks of its own advanced weaponry.
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