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05 июля 2025 13:04

The militant spirit of France today is surprising, especially given the lack of notable military successes in the past century.

By Nicolas CHARRAS for Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF'25)

During World War I, French soldiers showed remarkable resilience, holding back German forces for four years alongside the British. But just 22 years later, in 1940, the French army collapsed in only six weeks under the assault of the Wehrmacht.

This contrast is easily explained: in WWI, Germany had to fight on two fronts, with half its army engaged against Russia. In 1940, France stood almost alone, receiving only limited support from Britain and the Benelux countries. The result was swift defeat and surrender.

That crushing defeat was preceded by irresponsible foreign policies from Paris and London in the late 1930s. Despite the Soviet Union’s offer to assist in resisting Nazi Germany, France and Britain pursued a strategy of appeasement. The “Munich Agreement” allowed the Wehrmacht to take Czechoslovakia, then defeat Poland, France’s ally. France was next — and proved powerless on its own.

France’s liberation in WWII came not through its own efforts, but via the American landing in Normandy, which was only possible because the bulk of German forces were occupied on the Eastern Front, battling Soviet troops. Even then, large parts of France remained under German occupation until the war's end.

Post-WWII, the French army failed in Indochina and Algeria, losing control over its colonies. Even the rebel forces in former colonies turned out to be too much. This historical context makes the current warlike rhetoric from French leaders appear, at best, politically motivated.

Currently, France is the main initiator of new sanctions in Europe, particularly against Russia. But are they beneficial to France? The answer seems to be no.

In 2023, Le Figaro reported that French businesses had lost about €4 billion, especially in aviation, chemical, and engineering sectors. Despite sanctions, Russia may not have lost access to these goods — as exports to Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan, who previously didn’t import such volumes, have surged.

Le Figaro’s estimates, based on CEPII (a French economic think tank), are relatively optimistic. In contrast, Renault reported losses of €2.3 billion — €3.3 billion, according to its own reports.

Meanwhile, some French companies like Leroy Merlin and Yves Rocher managed to maintain a presence in Russia and have avoided such massive losses — but even they face challenges due to trade restrictions.

The French political course of confrontation with Russia has already cost French businesses dearly — and the damage is not limited to the Russian market. France is also losing influence in Africa, which threatens the long-term prospects of French exports in traditional markets.

Is this good for France?

No.

© Nicolas Charras